Energy Shift
Who’s Still Buying Russian Fossil Fuels in 2023?
The Countries Buying Fossil Fuels from Russia in 2023
While Russia’s revenues from fossil fuel exports have declined significantly since their peak in March of 2022, many countries are still importing millions of dollars a day worth of fossil fuels from Russia.
Revenue from fossil fuels exported to the EU has declined more than 90% from their peak, but in 2023 the bloc has still imported more than $18 billion of crude oil and natural gas so far.
This graphic uses data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) to visualize the top-importing countries of fossil fuels from Russia so far this year.
China Remains Russia’s Top Fossil Fuel Importer
China continues to be Russia’s top buyer of fossil fuels, with imports reaching $30 billion in 2023 up until June 16, 2023.
With nearly 80% of China’s fuel imports being crude oil, Russia’s average daily revenues from Chinese fossil fuel imports have declined from $210 million in 2022 to $178 million in 2023 largely due to the falling price of Russian crude oil.
Following China are EU nations collectively, which despite no longer importing coal from Russia since August of 2022, still imported $18.4 billion of fossil fuels in a 60/40 split of crude oil and natural gas respectively.
| Country | Russian Fossil Fuel Imports* (Total) | Crude Oil | Natural Gas | Coal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | $30.0B | $23.9B | $2.7B | $3.3B | |||||||||
| 🇪🇺 EU | $18.4B | $11.2B | $7.2B | $0 | |||||||||
| 🇮🇳 India | $15.2B | $12.8B | $0 | $2.5B | |||||||||
| 🇹🇷 Türkiye | $12.1B | $7.3B | $3B | $1.7B | |||||||||
| 🇦🇪 UAE | $2.3B | $2.3B | $0 | $0 | |||||||||
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | $2.1B | $0.6B | $0.3B | $1.2B | |||||||||
| 🇸🇰 Slovakia | $2.0B | $1.1B | $0.9B | $0 | |||||||||
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | $1.9B | $0.8B | $1.1B | $0 | |||||||||
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | $1.9B | $0.5B | $1.4B | $0 | |||||||||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | $1.8B | $0 | $1.5B | $0.3B | |||||||||
| 🇪🇸 Spain | $1.7B | $0.6B | $1.1B | $0 | |||||||||
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | $1.7B | $1.7B | $0 | $0 | |||||||||
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | $1.6B | $1.4B | $0 | $0.2B | |||||||||
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | $1.6B | $1.5B | $0.1B | $0 | |||||||||
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | $1.5B | $1.4B | $0 | $0 | |||||||||
| 🇪🇬 Egypt | $1.4B | $1.3B | $0 | $0.2B | |||||||||
| 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | $1.3B | $1.1B | $0.3B | $0 | |||||||||
| 🇮🇹 Italy | $1.2B | $0.8B | $0.4B | $0 | |||||||||
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia | $1.1B | $1.0B | $0 | $0.1B | |||||||||
| 🇨🇿 Czech Republic | $1.0B | $1.1B | $0 | $0 |
*Over the time period of Jan 1, 2023 to June 16, 2023 in U.S. dollars
After China and the EU bloc, India is the next-largest importer of Russian fossil fuels, having ramped up the amount of fossil fuels imported by more than 10x since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, largely due to discounted Russian oil.
Türkiye is the only other nation to have imported more than $10 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels in 2023, with every other country having imported fewer than $3 billion worth of fuels from Russia this year.
Navigating the Crude Reality of Oil Exports
Although crude oil is Russia’s chief fossil fuel export, the nation’s Urals crude traded at a $20 per barrel discount to Brent crude throughout most of 2023. While this discount has narrowed to around $16 following Russia’s announcement of further oil export cuts of 500,000 bpd (barrels per day), the price of Urals crude oil remains just 40 cents below the $60 price cap put in place by G7 and EU nations.
Alongside Russia, Saudi Arabia also announced it would extend its cut of 1 million bpd until the end of August, with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman commenting on the country’s solidarity with Russia and saying it would do “whatever is necessary” to support the oil market.
While OPEC and OPEC+ nations’ cuts are an attempt at pushing crude oil prices up, increased production from the U.S. has counteracted this. The EIA forecasts 2023 U.S. production to be 12.6 million bpd, surpassing the high in 2019 of 12.3 million bpd.
Energy Shift
How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?
Copper and lithium will require the highest number of new mines.
How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?
Nearly 300 Mines
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, meeting global battery demand by 2030 would require 293 new mines or plants.
| Mineral | 2024 Supply (t) | 2030 Demand (t) | Supply Needed (t) | No. of Mines/Plants | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium | 1,181,000 | 2,728,000 | 1,547,000 | 52 | Mine |
| Cobalt | 272,000 | 401,000 | 129,000 | 26 | Mine |
| Nickel | 3,566,000 | 4,949,000 | 1,383,000 | 28 | Mine |
| Natural Graphite | 1,225,000 | 2,933,000 | 1,708,000 | 31 | Mine |
| Synthetic Graphite | 1,820,000 | 2,176,000 | 356,000 | 12 | Plant |
| Manganese | 90,000 | 409,000 | 319,000 | 21 | Plant |
| Purified Phosphoric Acid | 6,493,000 | 9,001,000 | 2,508,000 | 33 | Plant |
| Copper | 22,912,000 | 26,576,000 | 3,664,000 | 61 | Mine |
| Rare Earths | 83,711 | 116,663 | 32,952 | 29 | Mine |
Copper, used in wires and other applications, and lithium, essential for batteries, will require the most significant number of new mines.
Manganese production would need to increase more than fourfold to meet anticipated demand.
Not an Easy Task
Building new mines is one of the biggest challenges in reaching the expected demand.
After discovery and exploration, mineral projects must go through a lengthy process of research, permitting, and funding before becoming operational.
In the U.S., for instance, developing a new mine can take 29 years.
In contrast, Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Laos have some of the shortest development times in the world, at roughly 10 to 15 years.
Energy Shift
Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources
Europe depends entirely on China for heavy rare earth elements, critical for technologies such as hybrid cars and fiber optics.
Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Despite efforts by European countries to reduce their reliance on China for critical materials, the region remains heavily dependent on Chinese resources.
This graphic shows the percentage of EU raw material supply sourced from China for 12 raw materials used in various industries. Bloomberg published this data in May 2024 based on European Commission research.
China’s Dominance in Clean Energy Minerals
Europe is 100% dependent on China for heavy rare earth elements used in technologies such as hybrid cars, fiber optics, and nuclear power.
Additionally, 97% of the magnesium consumed in Europe, for uses ranging from aerospace alloys to automotive parts, comes from the Asian country.
| Raw Material | Percentage Supplied by China | Usage |
|---|---|---|
| Heavy rare earth elements | 100% | nuclear reactors, TV screens, fiber optics |
| Magnesium | 97% | Aerospace alloys, automotive parts |
| Light rare earth elements | 85% | Catalysts, aircraft engines, magnets |
| Lithium | 79% | Batteries, pharmaceuticals, ceramics |
| Gallium | 71% | Semiconductors, LEDs, solar panels |
| Scandium | 67% | Aerospace components, power generation, sports equipment |
| Bismuth | 65% | Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, low-melting alloys |
| Vanadium | 62% | Steel alloys, aerospace, tools |
| Baryte | 45% | Oil and gas drilling, paints, plastics |
| Germanium | 45% | Fiber optics, infrared optics, electronics |
| Natural graphite | 40% | Batteries, lubricants, refractory materials |
| Tungsten | 32% | Cutting tools, electronics, heavy metal alloys |
Almost 80% of the lithium in electric vehicles and electronics batteries comes from China.
Assessing the Risks
The EU faces a pressing concern over access to essential materials, given the apprehension that China could “weaponize” its dominance of the sector.
One proposed solution is the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which entered into force in May 2024.
The act envisions a quota of 10% of all critical raw materials consumed in the EU to be produced within the EU.
Additionally, it calls for a significant increase in recycling efforts, totaling up to 25% of annual consumption in the EU. Lastly, it sets the target of reducing dependency for any critical raw material on a single non-EU country to less than 65% by 2030.
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