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Who’s Still Buying Russian Fossil Fuels in 2023?

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Bar chart of countries with the highest fossil fuel imports from Russia in 2023

The Countries Buying Fossil Fuels from Russia in 2023

While Russia’s revenues from fossil fuel exports have declined significantly since their peak in March of 2022, many countries are still importing millions of dollars a day worth of fossil fuels from Russia.

Revenue from fossil fuels exported to the EU has declined more than 90% from their peak, but in 2023 the bloc has still imported more than $18 billion of crude oil and natural gas so far.

This graphic uses data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) to visualize the top-importing countries of fossil fuels from Russia so far this year.

China Remains Russia’s Top Fossil Fuel Importer

China continues to be Russia’s top buyer of fossil fuels, with imports reaching $30 billion in 2023 up until June 16, 2023.

With nearly 80% of China’s fuel imports being crude oil, Russia’s average daily revenues from Chinese fossil fuel imports have declined from $210 million in 2022 to $178 million in 2023 largely due to the falling price of Russian crude oil.

Following China are EU nations collectively, which despite no longer importing coal from Russia since August of 2022, still imported $18.4 billion of fossil fuels in a 60/40 split of crude oil and natural gas respectively.

CountryRussian Fossil Fuel Imports* (Total)Crude OilNatural GasCoal
🇨🇳 China$30.0B$23.9B$2.7B$3.3B
🇪🇺 EU$18.4B$11.2B$7.2B$0
🇮🇳 India$15.2B$12.8B$0$2.5B
🇹🇷 Türkiye$12.1B$7.3B$3B$1.7B
🇦🇪 UAE$2.3B$2.3B$0$0
🇰🇷 South Korea$2.1B$0.6B$0.3B$1.2B
🇸🇰 Slovakia$2.0B$1.1B$0.9B$0
🇭🇺 Hungary$1.9B$0.8B$1.1B$0
🇧🇪 Belgium$1.9B$0.5B$1.4B$0
🇯🇵 Japan$1.8B$0$1.5B$0.3B
🇪🇸 Spain$1.7B$0.6B$1.1B$0
🇸🇬 Singapore$1.7B$1.7B$0$0
🇧🇷 Brazil$1.6B$1.4B$0$0.2B
🇳🇱 Netherlands$1.6B$1.5B$0.1B$0
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia$1.5B$1.4B$0$0
🇪🇬 Egypt$1.4B$1.3B$0$0.2B
🇧🇬 Bulgaria$1.3B$1.1B$0.3B$0
🇮🇹 Italy$1.2B$0.8B$0.4B$0
🇲🇾 Malaysia$1.1B$1.0B$0$0.1B
🇨🇿 Czech Republic$1.0B$1.1B$0$0

*Over the time period of Jan 1, 2023 to June 16, 2023 in U.S. dollars

After China and the EU bloc, India is the next-largest importer of Russian fossil fuels, having ramped up the amount of fossil fuels imported by more than 10x since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, largely due to discounted Russian oil.

Türkiye is the only other nation to have imported more than $10 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels in 2023, with every other country having imported fewer than $3 billion worth of fuels from Russia this year.

Navigating the Crude Reality of Oil Exports

Although crude oil is Russia’s chief fossil fuel export, the nation’s Urals crude traded at a $20 per barrel discount to Brent crude throughout most of 2023. While this discount has narrowed to around $16 following Russia’s announcement of further oil export cuts of 500,000 bpd (barrels per day), the price of Urals crude oil remains just 40 cents below the $60 price cap put in place by G7 and EU nations.

Alongside Russia, Saudi Arabia also announced it would extend its cut of 1 million bpd until the end of August, with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman commenting on the country’s solidarity with Russia and saying it would do “whatever is necessary” to support the oil market.

While OPEC and OPEC+ nations’ cuts are an attempt at pushing crude oil prices up, increased production from the U.S. has counteracted this. The EIA forecasts 2023 U.S. production to be 12.6 million bpd, surpassing the high in 2019 of 12.3 million bpd.

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Electrification

Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030

Chinese companies are expected to control 46% of the cobalt supply by 2030.

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This graphic visualizes the total cobalt supply from the top ten producers in 2030, highlighting China's dominance.

Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030

Chinese dominance over critical minerals used in technologies like smartphones, electric vehicles (EVs), and solar power has become a growing concern for the U.S. and other Western countries.

Currently, China refines 68% of the world’s nickel, 40% of copper, 59% of lithium, and 73% of cobalt, and is continuing to expand its mining operations.

This graphic visualizes the total cobalt supply from the top 10 producers in 2030, highlighting China’s dominance. The data comes from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of July 2024.

Cobalt production (tonnes)Non-Chinese Owned
Production
Chinese Owned
Production
2030F (Total)2030F (Share)
🇨🇩 DRC94,989109,159204,14867.9%
🇮🇩 Indonesia23,28825,59148,87916.3%
🇦🇺 Australia7,07007,0702.4%
🇵🇭 Philippines5,27005,2701.8%
🇷🇺 Russia4,83804,8381.6%
🇨🇦 Canada4,51004,5101.5%
🇨🇺 Cuba4,49604,4961.5%
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea5413,0673,6081.2%
🇹🇷 Turkey2,83502,8350.9%
🇳🇨 New Caledonia2,79902,7990.9%
🌍 ROW10,3361,90112,2374.1%
Total160,974139,718300,692100.0%

China’s Footprint in Africa

Cobalt is a critical mineral with a wide range of commercial, industrial, and military applications. It has gained significant attention in recent years due to its use in battery production. Today, the EV sector accounts for 40% of the global cobalt market.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) currently produces 74% of the world’s cobalt supply. Although cobalt deposits exist in regions like Australia, Europe, and Asia, the DRC holds the largest reserves by far.

China is the world’s leading consumer of cobalt, with nearly 87% of its cobalt consumption dedicated to the lithium-ion battery industry.

Although Chinese companies hold stakes in only three of the top 10 cobalt-producing countries, they control over half of the cobalt production in the DRC and Indonesia, and 85% of the output in Papua New Guinea.

Given the DRC’s large share of global cobalt production, many Chinese companies have expanded their presence in the country, acquiring projects and forming partnerships with the Congolese government.

According to Benchmark, Chinese companies are expected to control 46% of the global cobalt mined supply by 2030, a 3% increase from 2023.

By 2030, the top 10 cobalt-producing countries will account for 96% of the total mined supply, with just two countries—the DRC and Indonesia—contributing 84% of the total.

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Energy Shift

Visualizing the Decline of Copper Usage in EVs

Copper content in EVs has steadily decreased over the past decade, even as overall copper demand rises due to the increasing adoption of EVs.

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The total copper per vehicle is projected to decrease by 38 kg between 2015 and 2030.

Visualizing the Decline of Copper Usage in EVs

Copper intensity in passenger battery electric vehicles (BEVs) has steadily decreased over the last decade, driven by numerous technological advancements alongside increasing usage of alternative materials such as aluminum.

In this graphic, we visualize the evolution of copper demand in various subcomponents of passenger battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from 2015 to 2030F, along with total global copper demand driven by EVs for the same period. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

Copper Intensity Per Car

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the copper intensity per vehicle is expected to decline by almost 38 kg, from 99 kg in 2015 to 62 kg by 2030.

YearWiringMotorCopper FoilBusbarAuxiliary MotorCharging CableTotal
201530841.2613.232.873.9699.32
201629838.6813.372.853.9295.82
201728732.6712.722.843.9087.13
201827726.3911.872.823.8878.96
201926728.0010.852.783.8278.45
202025724.7110.242.733.7673.44
202124625.279.292.693.7070.95
202223728.448.562.653.6473.29
202322729.878.122.613.5873.18
2024F21727.737.672.563.5269.48
2025F20727.797.192.522.5167.01
2026F20727.786.632.483.4167.30
2027F19827.556.152.443.3566.49
2028F18826.775.702.403.3064.17
2029F18826.175.512.393.2863.35
2030F17825.635.442.373.2661.70

One of the most significant factors driving this decline is thrifting, where engineers and manufacturers continuously improve the efficiency and performance of various components, leading to reduced copper usage. A key example of this is in battery production, where the thickness of copper foil used in battery anodes has significantly decreased.

In 2015, Benchmark estimated copper foil usage was just over 41 kg per vehicle (at an average thickness of 10 microns), but by 2030, it is projected to fall to 26 kg as manufacturers continue to adopt thinner foils.

Similarly, automotive wiring systems have become more localized, with advances in high-voltage wiring and modular integration allowing for reduced copper content in wiring harnesses.

Copper used in wiring has dropped from 30 kg per vehicle in 2015 to a projected 17 kg by 2030.

Newer, more compact power electronics and improved thermal management in motors and charging cables have also contributed to the reduction in copper usage.

Substitution has also played a role, with alternatives such as aluminum increasingly being used in components like busbars, wiring harnesses, and charging cable applications.

Aluminum’s lighter weight and lower cost have made it a practical alternative to copper in specific applications, though the additional space required to achieve the same level of conductivity can limit its use in certain cases.

Benchmark estimates that copper used in automotive wire harnesses has declined by 30% between 2015 and 2024.

The Road Ahead

Despite reductions in per-vehicle copper usage, the outlook for copper demand from the EV sector remains strong due to the sector’s growth.

YearEV Sector Copper Demand (tonnes)
201556K
201682K
2017111K
2018166K
2019179K
2020237K
2021447K
2022696K
2023902K
2024F1.0M
2025F1.2M
2026F1.5M
2027F1.7M
2028F2.0M
2029F2.2M
2030F2.5M

Benchmark’s analysis indicates that by 2030, copper demand driven by EVs alone will exceed 2.5 million tonnes, securing copper’s critical role in the transition to a low-carbon future.

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