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Chart: The $400 Billion Lithium Battery Value Chain

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The following content is sponsored by the EnergyX

Breaking Down the $400 Billion Battery Value Chain

As the world transitions away from fossil fuels toward a greener future, the lithium battery industry could grow fivefold by 2030. This shift could create over $400 billion in annual revenue opportunities globally.

For this graphic, we partnered with EnergyX to determine how the battery industry could grow by 2030.

Exploring the Battery Value Chain

The lithium battery value chain has many links within it that each generate their own revenue opportunities, these include:

  • Critical Element Production: Involves the mining and refining of materials used in a battery’s construction.
  • Active materials: Creating and developing materials that react electrochemically to allow batteries to charge and discharge.
  • Battery cells: Involves the production of rechargeable elements of a battery.
  • Battery packs: Producing packs containing a series of connected battery cells. Generally, these come in two types: NMC/NMCA, the standard in North America and Europe, and LFP, the standard in China.
  • Recycling: Reusing battery components within new batteries.

But these links aren’t equal, each one is projected to generate different levels of revenue by 2030:

China 🇨🇳Europe 🇪🇺United States 🇺🇸Rest of World 🌍
Total$184B$118B$62B$39B
Critical Element Production$37B$25B$15B$8B
Active Materials$54B$31B$14B$11B
Battery Packs$34B$22B$11B$7B
Battery Cells$53B$37B$20B$11B
Recycling$6B$3B$2B$2B

On the surface, battery cell production may contribute the most revenue to the battery value chain. However, lithium production can generate margins as high as 65%, meaning lithium production has potential to yield large margins.

How Much Lithium Is Available?

Just a few countries hold 81% of the world’s viable lithium. So, supply bottlenecks could slow the growth of the lithium battery industry:

NationViable Lithium Reserves (2023)
Chile 🇨🇱9.3M t
Australia 🇦🇺6.2M t
Argentina 🇦🇷2.7M t
China 🇨🇳2M t
U.S. 🇺🇸1M t
Rest of World 🌍4.9M t

Supplying the World With Batteries

Supplying the world with lithium is critical to the battery value chain and a successful transition from fossil fuels. Players like the U.S. and the EU, with increasingly large and growing lithium needs, will need to maximize local opportunities and work together to meet demand.

EnergyX is on a mission to become a world leader in the global transition to sustainable energy, using cutting-edge direct lithium extraction to help supply the world with lithium.

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Electrification

Visualizing the Supply Deficit of Battery Minerals (2024-2034P)

A surplus of key metals is expected to shift to a major deficit within a decade.

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This graphic represents how key minerals for batteries will shift from a surplus in 2024 to a deficit in 2034.

Visualizing the Supply Deficit of Battery Minerals (2024-2034P)

The world currently produces a surplus of key battery minerals, but this is projected to shift to a significant deficit over the next 10 years.

This graphic illustrates this change, driven primarily by growing battery demand. The data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of November 2024.

Minerals in a Lithium-Ion Battery Cathode

Minerals make up the bulk of materials used to produce parts within the cell, ensuring the flow of electrical current:

  • Lithium: Acts as the primary charge carrier, enabling energy storage and transfer within the battery.
  • Cobalt: Stabilizes the cathode structure, improving battery lifespan and performance.
  • Nickel: Boosts energy density, allowing batteries to store more energy.
  • Manganese: Enhances thermal stability and safety, reducing overheating risks.

The cells in an average battery with a 60 kilowatt-hour (kWh) capacity—the same size used in a Chevy Bolt—contain roughly 185 kilograms of minerals.

Battery Demand Forecast

Due to the growing demand for these materials, their production and mining have increased exponentially in recent years, led by China. In this scenario, all the metals shown in the graphic currently experience a surplus.

In the long term, however, with the greater adoption of batteries and other renewable energy technologies, projections indicate that all these minerals will enter a deficit.

For example, lithium demand is expected to more than triple by 2034, resulting in a projected deficit of 572,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). According to Benchmark analysis, the lithium industry would need over $40 billion in investment to meet demand by 2030.

MetricLithium (in tonnes LCE)Nickel (in tonnes)Cobalt (in tonnes)Manganese (in tonnes)
2024 Demand1,103,0003,440,000230,000119,000
2024 Surplus88,000117,00024,00011,000
2034 Demand3,758,0006,082,000468,000650,000
2034 Deficit-572,000-839,000-91,000-307,000

Nickel demand, on the other hand, is expected to almost double, leading to a deficit of 839,000 tonnes by 2034. The surge in demand is attributed primarily to the rise of mid- and high-performance electric vehicles (EVs) in Western markets.

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Visualizing the EU’s Critical Minerals Gap by 2030

This graphic underscores the scale of the challenge the bloc faces in strengthening its critical mineral supply by 2030.

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This graphic underscores the scale of the challenge the EU faces in strengthening its critical mineral supply chains under the Critical Raw Material Act.

Visualizing EU’s Critical Minerals Gap by 2030

The European Union’s Critical Raw Material Act sets out several ambitious goals to enhance the resilience of its critical mineral supply chains.

The Act includes non-binding targets for the EU to build sufficient mining capacity so that mines within the bloc can meet 10% of its critical mineral demand.

Additionally, the Act establishes a goal for 40% of demand to be met by processing within the bloc, and 25% through recycling.

Several months after the Act’s passage in May 2024, this graphic highlights the scale of the challenge the EU aims to overcome. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of July 2024. The graphic excludes synthetic graphite.

Securing Europe’s Supply of Critical Materials

With the exception of nickel mining, none of the battery minerals deemed strategic by the EU are on track to meet these goals.

Graphite, the largest mineral component used in batteries, is of particular concern. There is no EU-mined supply of manganese ore or coke, the precursor to synthetic graphite.

By 2030, the European Union is expected to supply 16,000 tonnes of flake graphite locally, compared to the 45,000 tonnes it would need to meet the 10% mining target.

Metal 2030 Demand (tonnes)Mining (F)Processing (F)Recycling (F)Mining Target Processing Target Recycling Target
Lithium459K29K46K25K46K184K115K
Nickel403K42K123K25K40K161K101K
Cobalt94K1K19K6K9K37K23K
Manganese147K0K21K5K15K59K37K
Flake Graphite453K16K17KN/A45K86KN/A

The EU is also expected to mine 29,000 tonnes of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) compared to the 46,000 tonnes needed to meet the 10% target.

In terms of mineral processing, the bloc is expected to process 25% of its lithium requirements, 76% of nickel, 51% of cobalt, 36% of manganese, and 20% of flake graphite.

The EU is expected to recycle only 22% of its lithium needs, 25% of nickel, 26% of cobalt, and 14% of manganese. Graphite, meanwhile, is not widely recycled on a commercial scale.

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