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Visualizing the Demand for Battery Raw Materials

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The following content is sponsored by Wood Mackenzie

Visualizing the Demand for Battery Raw Materials

Metals play a pivotal role in the energy transition, as EVs and energy storage systems rely on batteries, which, in turn, require metals.

This graphic, sponsored by Wood Mackenzie, forecasts raw material demand from batteries. It presents a base case scenario that incorporates the evolution of current policies, indicating a global temperature rise of 2.5°C by 2100. Additionally, it explores an accelerated (AET) scenario, where the world aims to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C by the end of this century.

Growing Demand for Metals in an Accelerated Scenario

Lithium is a crucial material in high-energy-density rechargeable lithium-ion batteries.

The lithium fueling electric vehicle batteries undergoes refinement from compounds sourced in salt-brine pools or hard rock and quantities are measured in terms of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE).

According to Wood Mackenzie, by 2030, the demand for LCE is expected to be 55% higher in an AET scenario compared to the base case, and 59% higher by 2050.

Base CaseUnit202320302050
Battery demand (Li-ion and Na-ion)GWh1,1523,5778,395
Cathode active material (Li-ion and Na-ion)kt2,1326,37613,995
Lithiumkt LCE8782,3905,275
Nickelkt5961,2992,151
Cobaltkt147187228
Manganesekt2076871,491
Graphitekt1,1193,0343,748
AETUnit202320302050
Battery demand (Li-ion and Na-ion)GWh1,2505,85612,819
Cathode active material (Li-ion and Na-ion)kt2,32610,86521,149
Lithiumkt LCE9543,7018,384
Nickelkt6061,6482,629
Cobaltkt145207265
Manganesekt2251,1242,163
Graphitekt1,2205,0185,461

The demand for two other essential metals in battery production, cobalt and nickel, is expected to be 16% and 22% higher, respectively, in 2050 in the AET scenario compared to the base case.

Given that graphite is the primary anode material for an EV battery, it also represents the largest component by weight in the average EV. The demand for graphite in an AET scenario is anticipated to be 46% higher than in a base case scenario.

Battery Materials Supply Chain

According to Wood Mackenzie data, an accelerated energy transition would require much more capital within a short timeframe for developing the battery raw materials supply chain – from mines through to refineries and cell production facilities.

Increased participation from Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) will be necessary, risking EV sales penetration rates remaining below 15% in the medium term, in contrast to approximately 40% in the total market under an AET scenario.

In addition, finding alternative sources of metals, including using secondary supply through recycling, is another option available to the industry.

However, as noted in Wood Mackenzie’s research, current EV sales are too low to generate a sufficiently large scrap pool to create any meaningful new source of supply by 2030.

Access insights on the entire battery industry supply chain with Electric Vehicle & Battery Supply Chain Service by Wood Mackenzie.

 

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Charted: Battery Capacity by Country (2024-2030)

This graphic compares battery capacity by cathode type across major countries.

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This graphic, using exclusive data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, compares battery capacity by cathode type across major countries.

Charted: Battery Capacity by Country (2024-2030)

As the global energy transition accelerates, battery demand continues to soar—along with competition between battery chemistries.

According to the International Energy Agency, in 2024, electric vehicle sales rose by 25% to 17 million, pushing annual battery demand past 1 terawatt-hour (TWh)—a historic milestone.

This graphic, using exclusive data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (as of February 2025), compares battery capacity by cathode type across major countries. It focuses on the two dominant chemistries: Nickel Cobalt Manganese (NCM) and Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP).

Understanding Cathode Chemistries

Batteries store and release energy through the movement of lithium ions. The cathode—a key electrode—determines a battery’s cost, range, and thermal performance.

NCM

  • Offers higher energy density and better performance in cold climates, but is more expensive and has a shorter lifespan.

LFP

  • Known for its lower cost and improved thermal stability, though it delivers a shorter driving range and adds weight.

As of now, LFP cathodes make up 40% of the EV market in terms of gigawatt-hours (GWh).

Beyond passenger vehicles, LFP batteries are widely used in systems that undergo frequent charging and discharging—like residential and grid-scale energy storage—where added weight isn’t a major concern. They’re also ideal for daily-use applications such as buses and delivery fleets.

Regional Market Trends

In China, LFP is already dominant, accounting for 64% of the market in 2024. By 2030, that figure is projected to grow to 76%, driven by a focus on affordability in the world’s largest EV market. Notably, over 70% of all EV batteries ever manufactured have been produced in China, contributing to deep manufacturing expertise.

Region/CountryYear% NCM% LFP% Other
China202427%64%8%
North America202471%7%22%
Europe202469%8%24%
South Korea202462%4%35%
Japan202458%0%42%

Outside of China, NCM remains the leading chemistry due to consumer demand for longer range and premium performance.

North America – NCM holds a 71% share in 2024, with a slight decline to 69% forecasted for 2030.

Europe – NCM’s share is expected to grow from 69% in 2024 to 71% by 2030.

South Korea and Japan – Both countries show similar trends, with NCM gaining share as LFP remains limited or absent.

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Top 20 Countries by Battery Storage Capacity

China holds about two-thirds of global BESS capacity.

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This graphic highlights the top 20 battery storage capacity markets by current and planned grid capacity in gigawatt hour (GWh).

Visualizing the Top 20 Countries by Battery Storage Capacity

Over the past three years, the Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) market has been the fastest-growing segment of global battery demand. These systems store electricity using batteries, helping stabilize the grid, store renewable energy, and provide backup power.

In 2024, the market grew by 52%, compared to 25% growth in the EV battery market. Among the top companies in the BESS market are technology giants such as Samsung, LG, BYD, Panasonic, and Tesla.

This graphic highlights the top 20 BESS markets by current and planned grid capacity in gigawatt hour (GWh), based on exclusive data from Rho Motion as of February 2025.

Chinese Dominance

As with the EV market, China currently dominates global BESS deployments, accounting for approximately two-thirds of installed capacity. However, other markets are expected to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by low-cost lithium-ion cells and the expansion of renewable energy capacity.

Currently, China has 215.5 GWh of installed capacity and an ambitious 505.6 GWh project pipeline. The U.S. follows with 82.1 GWh installed and 162.5 GWh planned.

Top BESS MarketsInstalled 2024 (GWh)2027P
🇨🇳 China215.5721.2
🇺🇸 USA82.1244.6
🇬🇧 UK7.556.3
🇦🇺 Australia5.6102.9
🇨🇱 Chile3.841.0
🇮🇹 Italy2.27.9
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia1.332.4
🇿🇦 South Africa1.39.4
🇮🇪 Ireland1.62.5
🇵🇭 Philippines1.06.1
🇯🇵 Japan1.05.0
🇩🇪 Germany1.06.2
🇰🇷 South Korea1.11.3
🇮🇱 Israel0.84.6
🇫🇷 France0.61.8
🇧🇪 Belgium0.75.3
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan0.65.9
🇸🇪 Sweden0.61.5
🇮🇳 India0.54.3
🇨🇦 Canada0.318.3

Canada is projected to be the fastest-growing market through 2027, with its cumulative capacity hitting 18.3 GWh—a significant increase from its current 0.3 GWh capacity.

Countries such as Australia (97.3 GWh pipeline), Saudi Arabia (31.1 GWh), and Chile (37.2 GWh) have relatively small current installations but plan substantial expansions. Within Europe, the UK leads with 7.5 GWh of installed capacity and 48.7 GWh in the pipeline, while Italy, Germany, France, and Belgium show steady but more modest growth.

Despite being technological leaders, Japan (4 GWh pipeline) and South Korea (0.3 GWh) have relatively low planned BESS expansions.

According to Rho Motion, China will remain the dominant player in 2027, but its share of the total market is expected to decline to just over 50% based on the current project pipeline.

While the BESS market is expanding, challenges remain, including grid connection bottlenecks and the development of revenue streams in emerging markets.

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