Electrification
Visualizing the Demand for Battery Raw Materials
The following content is sponsored by Wood Mackenzie
Visualizing the Demand for Battery Raw Materials
Metals play a pivotal role in the energy transition, as EVs and energy storage systems rely on batteries, which, in turn, require metals.
This graphic, sponsored by Wood Mackenzie, forecasts raw material demand from batteries. It presents a base case scenario that incorporates the evolution of current policies, indicating a global temperature rise of 2.5°C by 2100. Additionally, it explores an accelerated (AET) scenario, where the world aims to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C by the end of this century.
Growing Demand for Metals in an Accelerated Scenario
Lithium is a crucial material in high-energy-density rechargeable lithium-ion batteries.
The lithium fueling electric vehicle batteries undergoes refinement from compounds sourced in salt-brine pools or hard rock and quantities are measured in terms of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE).
According to Wood Mackenzie, by 2030, the demand for LCE is expected to be 55% higher in an AET scenario compared to the base case, and 59% higher by 2050.
Base Case | Unit | 2023 | 2030 | 2050 |
Battery demand (Li-ion and Na-ion) | GWh | 1,152 | 3,577 | 8,395 |
Cathode active material (Li-ion and Na-ion) | kt | 2,132 | 6,376 | 13,995 |
Lithium | kt LCE | 878 | 2,390 | 5,275 |
Nickel | kt | 596 | 1,299 | 2,151 |
Cobalt | kt | 147 | 187 | 228 |
Manganese | kt | 207 | 687 | 1,491 |
Graphite | kt | 1,119 | 3,034 | 3,748 |
AET | Unit | 2023 | 2030 | 2050 |
Battery demand (Li-ion and Na-ion) | GWh | 1,250 | 5,856 | 12,819 |
Cathode active material (Li-ion and Na-ion) | kt | 2,326 | 10,865 | 21,149 |
Lithium | kt LCE | 954 | 3,701 | 8,384 |
Nickel | kt | 606 | 1,648 | 2,629 |
Cobalt | kt | 145 | 207 | 265 |
Manganese | kt | 225 | 1,124 | 2,163 |
Graphite | kt | 1,220 | 5,018 | 5,461 |
The demand for two other essential metals in battery production, cobalt and nickel, is expected to be 16% and 22% higher, respectively, in 2050 in the AET scenario compared to the base case.
Given that graphite is the primary anode material for an EV battery, it also represents the largest component by weight in the average EV. The demand for graphite in an AET scenario is anticipated to be 46% higher than in a base case scenario.
Battery Materials Supply Chain
According to Wood Mackenzie data, an accelerated energy transition would require much more capital within a short timeframe for developing the battery raw materials supply chain – from mines through to refineries and cell production facilities.
Increased participation from Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) will be necessary, risking EV sales penetration rates remaining below 15% in the medium term, in contrast to approximately 40% in the total market under an AET scenario.
In addition, finding alternative sources of metals, including using secondary supply through recycling, is another option available to the industry.
However, as noted in Wood Mackenzie’s research, current EV sales are too low to generate a sufficiently large scrap pool to create any meaningful new source of supply by 2030.
Access insights on the entire battery industry supply chain with Electric Vehicle & Battery Supply Chain Service by Wood Mackenzie.
Electrification
Ranked: The Top Lithium-Ion Battery Producing Countries by 2030
Chinese companies are expected to hold nearly 70% of global battery capacity by decade’s end.
Top Lithium-Ion Battery Producers by 2030
Lithium-ion batteries are essential for a clean economy due to their high energy density and efficiency. They power most portable consumer electronics, such as cell phones and laptops, and are used in the majority of today’s electric vehicles.
This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to rank the top lithium-ion battery producing countries by their forecasted capacity (measured in gigawatt-hours or GWh) in 2030.
China to Keep Dominance
Chinese companies are expected to account for nearly 70% of global battery capacity by 2030, delivering over 6,200 gigawatt-hours. Chinese giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) alone is forecasted to produce more than the combined output from Canada, France, Hungary, Germany, and the UK.
Country | 2030F capacity (GWh) | Top producers |
---|---|---|
🇨🇳 China | 6,268.3 | CATL, BYD, CALB |
🇺🇸 U.S. | 1,260.6 | Tesla, LGES, SK On |
🇩🇪 Germany | 261.8 | Tesla, Northvolt, VW |
🇭🇺 Hungary | 210.1 | CATL, SK On, Samsung |
🇨🇦 Canada | 203.8 | Northvolt, LGES, VW |
🇫🇷 France | 162.0 | Verkor, Prologium, ACC |
🇰🇷 South Korea | 94.5 | LGES, Samsung, SK On |
🇬🇧 UK | 66.9 | Envision, Tata |
Currently, China is home to six of the world’s 10 biggest battery makers. China’s battery dominance is driven by its vertical integration across the entire EV supply chain, from mining metals to producing EVs.
By 2030, the U.S. is expected to be second in battery capacity after China, with 1,261 gigawatt-hours, led by LG Energy Solution and Tesla.
In Europe, Germany is forecasted to lead in lithium-ion battery production, with 262 gigawatt-hours, most of it coming from Tesla. The company currently operates its Giga Berlin plant in the country, Tesla’s first manufacturing location in Europe.
Learn More About Batteries From Visual Capitalist
If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out Charted: Investment Needed to Meet Battery Demand by 2040. This visualization shows the total capital expenditure (capex) requirements to build capacity to meet future battery demand by 2030 and 2040.
Electrification
Visualizing the Growth of Chinese Copper Miners
Chinese miners are set to overtake major producers by 2025.
Visualizing the Growth of Chinese Copper Miners
China, with its huge manufacturing sector, is by far the biggest consumer of copper.
Currently, 70% of copper used in China is imported. As a result, the country has invested heavily in copper mines to secure future supply.
This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to compare copper output from the top three global producers with Chinese miners. Since some of the mining operations have shared ownership, this graphic takes into consideration only the portion of production relative to the company’s stake in each mine.
Chinese Miners Set to Overtake Major Producers by 2025
In 2010, Chinese miners produced a total of 1.2 million tonnes of copper. In that same year, the top producer, Chilean state miner Codelco, produced 1.8 million tonnes, while the world’s largest miner and second-largest copper producer, BHP, produced 1 million tonnes.
Over the years, however, Chinese output has surged while major miners have faced challenges. In 2023, Codelco’s production fell to its lowest level in a quarter of a century due to operational problems and project delays.
Year/millions of tonnes | Zijin | CMOC | MMG | Tongling | Other China | BHP | Freeport | Codelco |
2010 | 0.059 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.007 | 1.090 | 1.021 | 0.979 | 1.760 |
2011 | 0.061 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.956 | 0.959 | 0.959 | 1.796 |
2012 | 0.082 | 0.000 | 0.046 | 0.007 | 1.070 | 1.070 | 0.975 | 1.805 |
2013 | 0.104 | 0.003 | 0.184 | 0.007 | 1.530 | 1.129 | 1.046 | 1.791 |
2014 | 0.116 | 0.014 | 0.149 | 0.007 | 1.753 | 1.126 | 1.074 | 1.841 |
2015 | 0.126 | 0.040 | 0.199 | 0.007 | 1.810 | 1.085 | 1.230 | 1.891 |
2016 | 0.134 | 0.047 | 0.374 | 0.007 | 1.984 | 1.023 | 1.388 | 1.827 |
2017 | 0.178 | 0.155 | 0.422 | 0.011 | 1.978 | 0.995 | 1.222 | 1.842 |
2018 | 0.212 | 0.127 | 0.383 | 0.019 | 1.967 | 1.161 | 1.239 | 1.807 |
2019 | 0.299 | 0.140 | 0.315 | 0.031 | 2.046 | 1.197 | 1.104 | 1.706 |
2020 | 0.377 | 0.173 | 0.272 | 0.066 | 2.290 | 1.147 | 1.081 | 1.727 |
2021 | 0.518 | 0.192 | 0.235 | 0.093 | 2.378 | 1.068 | 1.328 | 1.728 |
2022 | 0.750 | 0.226 | 0.214 | 0.123 | 2.440 | 1.180 | 1.327 | 1.553 |
2023F | 0.828 | 0.329 | 0.236 | 0.134 | 2.298 | 1.283 | 1.302 | 1.442 |
2024F | 0.886 | 0.460 | 0.301 | 0.121 | 2.421 | 1.423 | 1.421 | 1.414 |
2025F | 0.980 | 0.467 | 0.309 | 0.158 | 2.441 | 1.471 | 1.342 | 1.531 |
2026F | 1.031 | 0.467 | 0.332 | 0.206 | 2.477 | 1.513 | 1.369 | 1.591 |
2027F | 1.036 | 0.568 | 0.332 | 0.255 | 2.467 | 1.383 | 1.345 | 1.600 |
2028F | 1.058 | 0.698 | 0.332 | 0.255 | 2.467 | 1.186 | 1.286 | 1.580 |
Meanwhile, China’s biggest copper producer, Zijin Mining, saw its production rise from 0.059 million tonnes in 2010 to 0.8 million tonnes last year.
Combined, Chinese companies produced 3.2 million tonnes of copper in 2023, compared to the combined production of 4 million tonnes by Codelco, Freeport-McMoRan (the biggest copper producer in the U.S.), and BHP.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data, Chinese miners are forecasted to surpass the three top producers in 2025, with a combined production of 4.4 million tonnes compared to 4.3 million tonnes from Codelco, BHP, and Freeport.
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