Electrification
The Lithium Rush: Can We Meet Tomorrow’s Lithium Demand?
The following content is sponsored by the EnergyX
Can We Meet Tomorrow’s Lithium Demand?
Lithium is one of the world’s most critical natural resources and is central to our push toward sustainable energy.
In this graphic, sponsored by EnergyX, we ask that with over 350 million EVs expected to be sold globally by 2030, can we meet tomorrow’s lithium demand?
Addressing Tomorrow’s Lithium Problem
The lithium that powers EV batteries is refined from compounds found in multicolored pools of salt-brine or hard rock, and quantities are measured in terms of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE).
So, to power the vast quantity of EVs being produced worldwide, a consistent and reliable supply of lithium is required. However, with forecasted annual demand growth of up to 20% by 2030, the current supply of lithium will not be sufficient to meet the demand, and nearly double the amount will be required.
| Year | Global LCE Supply (tons) | Global LCE Demand (tons) |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 750,000 | 720,000 |
| 2030 | 1,640,000 | 3,060,000 |
Extracting a Solution
One of the main reasons why lithium demand is set to outstrip supply so aggressively is that conventional methods of extracting lithium are slow, outdated, and often cause environmental harm. However, a new way of lithium extraction, called direct lithium extraction (DLE), could resolve the supply problem.
DLE boasts a lithium recovery rate of 90%, surpassing conventional processes by 300%. This process also allows for lithium extraction from previously untapped sources, including California and the Smackover region in Arkansas.
Additionally, DLE is exceptionally efficient, taking only two days to process a lithium deposit, a process which would typically take 18 months. This process is also more environmentally friendly as producing one ton of lithium conventionally requires over 2.2 million liters of fresh water, whereas DLE requires minimal quantities.
A Path Forward
Without action, by 2030, there won’t be enough lithium to meet the combined demands of the clean energy transition and the UN’s sustainable development goals.
However, advances in DLE by pioneering companies like EnergyX could help meet the demand and ensure the transition to a more sustainable future.
Don’t miss your chance to transform the future of renewable energy. Invest in EnergyX now.
Electrification
Charted: Lithium-Ion Batteries Keep Getting Cheaper
Cell prices have fallen 73% since 2014.
Lithium-Ion Batteries Keep Getting Cheaper
Battery metal prices have struggled as a surge in new production overwhelmed demand, coinciding with a slowdown in electric vehicle adoption.
Lithium prices, for example, have plummeted nearly 90% since the late 2022 peak, leading to mine closures and impacting the price of lithium-ion batteries used in EVs.
This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner Benchmark Mineral Intelligence to show the evolution of lithium-ion battery prices over the last 10 years.
More than Half of the Battery Price Comes from the Cathode
Lithium-ion batteries operate by collecting current and directing it into the battery during the charging process. Typically, a graphite anode attracts lithium ions and retains them as a charge.
During discharge, the cathode draws the stored lithium ions and channels them to another current collector. The circuit functions effectively because the anode and cathode do not come into direct contact and are suspended in a medium that facilitates the easy flow of ions.
Currently, 54% of the cell price comes from the cathode, 18% from the anode, and 28% from other components.
Declining Prices
The average price of lithium-ion battery cells dropped from $290 per kilowatt-hour in 2014 to $103 in 2023.
| Year | Global Avg. Cell Price ($ per kilowatt-hour) |
|---|---|
| 2014 | 290 |
| 2015 | 230 |
| 2016 | 180 |
| 2017 | 140 |
| 2018 | 128 |
| 2019 | 120 |
| 2020 | 110 |
| 2021 | 99 |
| 2022 | 129 |
| 2023 | 103 |
| 2024 (ytd) | 78 |
In the coming months, prices are expected to drop further due to oversupply from China.
Despite declining prices, battery demand is projected to increase ninefold by 2040, with the battery industry’s total capital expenditure expected to nearly triple, rising from $567 billion in 2030 to $1.6 trillion in 2040.
| Lithium ion Battery Market Size | Global Capacity (Gigawatt hour) |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 163 |
| 2017 | 219 |
| 2018 | 353 |
| 2019 | 496 |
| 2020 | 710 |
| 2021 | 1026 |
| 2022 | 1652 |
| 2023 | 2555 |
| 2024F | 3476 |
Learn More About Batteries From Visual Capitalist
If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out this graphic that ranks the top lithium-ion battery producing countries by their forecasted capacity in 2030.
Electrification
Ranked: The Top Lithium-Ion Battery Producing Countries by 2030
Chinese companies are expected to hold nearly 70% of global battery capacity by decade’s end.
Top Lithium-Ion Battery Producers by 2030
Lithium-ion batteries are essential for a clean economy due to their high energy density and efficiency. They power most portable consumer electronics, such as cell phones and laptops, and are used in the majority of today’s electric vehicles.
This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to rank the top lithium-ion battery producing countries by their forecasted capacity (measured in gigawatt-hours or GWh) in 2030.
China to Keep Dominance
Chinese companies are expected to account for nearly 70% of global battery capacity by 2030, delivering over 6,200 gigawatt-hours. Chinese giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) alone is forecasted to produce more than the combined output from Canada, France, Hungary, Germany, and the UK.
| Country | 2030F capacity (GWh) | Top producers |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | 6,268.3 | CATL, BYD, CALB |
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | 1,260.6 | Tesla, LGES, SK On |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 261.8 | Tesla, Northvolt, VW |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | 210.1 | CATL, SK On, Samsung |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 203.8 | Northvolt, LGES, VW |
| 🇫🇷 France | 162.0 | Verkor, Prologium, ACC |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 94.5 | LGES, Samsung, SK On |
| 🇬🇧 UK | 66.9 | Envision, Tata |
Currently, China is home to six of the world’s 10 biggest battery makers. China’s battery dominance is driven by its vertical integration across the entire EV supply chain, from mining metals to producing EVs.
By 2030, the U.S. is expected to be second in battery capacity after China, with 1,261 gigawatt-hours, led by LG Energy Solution and Tesla.
In Europe, Germany is forecasted to lead in lithium-ion battery production, with 262 gigawatt-hours, most of it coming from Tesla. The company currently operates its Giga Berlin plant in the country, Tesla’s first manufacturing location in Europe.
Learn More About Batteries From Visual Capitalist
If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out Charted: Investment Needed to Meet Battery Demand by 2040. This visualization shows the total capital expenditure (capex) requirements to build capacity to meet future battery demand by 2030 and 2040.
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