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China Dominates the Supply of U.S. Critical Minerals List

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See this visualization first on the Voronoi app.

A bar chart showing China’s share of U.S. imports on the country's critical minerals list.

China Dominates the Supply of U.S. Critical Minerals List

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Most countries have, for many decades, kept a record of their own critical minerals list.

For example, the U.S., drew up a list of “war minerals” during World War I, containing important minerals which could not be found and produced in abundance domestically. They included: tin, nickel, platinum, nitrates and potash.

Since then, as the economy has grown and innovated, critical mineral lists have expanded considerably. The Energy Act of 2020 defines a critical mineral as:

“A non-fuel mineral or mineral material essential to the economic or national security of the U.S., whose supply chains are vulnerable to disruption.” — Energy Act, 2020.

Currently there are 50 entries on this list and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that China is the leading producer for 30 of them. From USGS data, we visualize China’s share of U.S. imports for 10 critical minerals.

What Key Critical Minerals Does the U.S. Import From China?

The U.S. is 100% import-reliant for its supply of yttrium, with China responsible for 94% of U.S. imports of the metal from 2018 to 2021.

A soft silvery metal, yttrium is used as an additive for alloys, making microwave filters for radars, and as a catalyst in ethylene polymerization—a key process in making certain kinds of plastic.

China is a major supplier of the following listed critical minerals to the U.S.

Critical MineralChina's Share
of U.S. Imports
U.S. Imports (Tonnes)Uses
Yttrium94%1,000Catalyst, Microwave filters
Rare Earths74%11,940Smartphones, Cameras
Bismuth65%2,800Metallurgy
Antimony63%25,590Batteries
Arsenic57%5,400Semiconductors
Germanium54%29,000Chips, Fiber optics
Gallium53%12,000Chips, Fiber optics
Barite38%2,300Hydrocarbon production
Graphite (natural)33%82,000Batteries, Lubricants
Tungsten29%14,000Metallurgy

Note: China’s share of U.S. critical minerals imports is based on average imports from 2018 to 2021.

Meanwhile, the U.S. also imports nearly three-quarters of its rare earth compounds and metals demand from China. Rare earth elements—so called since they are not found in easily-mined, concentrated clusters—are a collection of 15 elements on the periodic table, known as the lanthanide series.

ℹ️ Yttrium and scandium exhibit similar rare-earth properties, and are found in the same ore bodies. They are often grouped together with the lanthanide series.

Rare earths are used in smartphones, cameras, hard disks, and LEDs but also, crucially, in the clean energy and defense industries.

Does China’s Dominance of U.S. Critical Minerals Supply Matter?

The USGS estimates that China could potentially disrupt the global rare earth oxide supply by cutting off 40–50% production, impacting suppliers of advanced components used in U.S. defense systems.

A version of this sort of trade warfare is already playing out. Earlier this year, China implemented export controls on germanium and gallium. The U.S. relies on China for around 54% of its demand for both minerals, used for producing chips, solar panels, and fiber optics.

China’s controls were seen as a retaliation against the U.S. which has restricted the supply of chips, chip design software, and lithography machines to Chinese companies.

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Energy Shift

How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?

Copper and lithium will require the highest number of new mines.

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This graphic estimates the number of mines needed to meet the 2030 demand for energy transition materials.

How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?

The energy transition relies on the minerals necessary to build electric vehicles, batteries, solar farms, and wind turbines. In an economy moving away from fossil fuels every day, sourcing the materials required for this shift presents one of the biggest challenges.
This graphic forecasts the number of mines that must be developed to meet the expected demand for energy transition raw materials and chemicals by 2030. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence as of November 2024.

Nearly 300 Mines

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, meeting global battery demand by 2030 would require 293 new mines or plants.

Mineral2024 Supply (t)2030 Demand (t)Supply Needed (t)No. of Mines/PlantsType
Lithium1,181,0002,728,0001,547,00052Mine
Cobalt272,000401,000129,00026Mine
Nickel3,566,0004,949,0001,383,00028Mine
Natural Graphite1,225,0002,933,0001,708,00031Mine
Synthetic Graphite1,820,0002,176,000356,00012Plant
Manganese90,000409,000319,00021Plant
Purified Phosphoric Acid6,493,0009,001,0002,508,00033Plant
Copper22,912,00026,576,0003,664,00061Mine
Rare Earths83,711116,66332,95229Mine

Copper, used in wires and other applications, and lithium, essential for batteries, will require the most significant number of new mines.

Manganese production would need to increase more than fourfold to meet anticipated demand.

Not an Easy Task

Building new mines is one of the biggest challenges in reaching the expected demand.

After discovery and exploration, mineral projects must go through a lengthy process of research, permitting, and funding before becoming operational.

In the U.S., for instance, developing a new mine can take 29 years.

In contrast, Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Laos have some of the shortest development times in the world, at roughly 10 to 15 years.

 

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Energy Shift

Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources

Europe depends entirely on China for heavy rare earth elements, critical for technologies such as hybrid cars and fiber optics.

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This graphic shows the percentage of EU raw material supply sourced from China for 12 raw materials used in various industries.

Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Despite efforts by European countries to reduce their reliance on China for critical materials, the region remains heavily dependent on Chinese resources.

This graphic shows the percentage of EU raw material supply sourced from China for 12 raw materials used in various industries. Bloomberg published this data in May 2024 based on European Commission research.

China’s Dominance in Clean Energy Minerals

Europe is 100% dependent on China for heavy rare earth elements used in technologies such as hybrid cars, fiber optics, and nuclear power.

Additionally, 97% of the magnesium consumed in Europe, for uses ranging from aerospace alloys to automotive parts, comes from the Asian country.

Raw MaterialPercentage Supplied by ChinaUsage
Heavy rare earth elements100%nuclear reactors, TV screens, fiber optics
Magnesium97%Aerospace alloys, automotive parts
Light rare earth elements85%Catalysts, aircraft engines, magnets
Lithium79%Batteries, pharmaceuticals, ceramics
Gallium71%Semiconductors, LEDs, solar panels
Scandium67%Aerospace components, power generation, sports equipment
Bismuth65%Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, low-melting alloys
Vanadium62%Steel alloys, aerospace, tools
Baryte45%Oil and gas drilling, paints, plastics
Germanium45%Fiber optics, infrared optics, electronics
Natural graphite40%Batteries, lubricants, refractory materials
Tungsten32%Cutting tools, electronics, heavy metal alloys

Almost 80% of the lithium in electric vehicles and electronics batteries comes from China.

Assessing the Risks

The EU faces a pressing concern over access to essential materials, given the apprehension that China could “weaponize” its dominance of the sector.

One proposed solution is the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which entered into force in May 2024.

The act envisions a quota of 10% of all critical raw materials consumed in the EU to be produced within the EU.

Additionally, it calls for a significant increase in recycling efforts, totaling up to 25% of annual consumption in the EU. Lastly, it sets the target of reducing dependency for any critical raw material on a single non-EU country to less than 65% by 2030.

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