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Energy Shift

How Mine Permitting Delays Impact the Transition to a Green Economy

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The following content is sponsored by Northern Dynasty

Mine Permitting Delays and the Transition to a Green Economy

Minerals are essential components in many of our daily-use products, such as cell phones, laptops, and cars.

In fact, every American uses nearly 40,000 pounds of newly mined materials each year.

In the United States, however, the current permitting process makes it difficult for businesses to invest in the extraction and processing of minerals, such as copper.

This graphic by Northern Dynasty explores the untapped potential of mineral resources in America.

Copper, a Critical Material

In 2023 the U.S. Department of Energy officially added copper to its critical materials list, following the examples of the European Union, Japan, India, Canada, and China.

Copper is a highly efficient conductor of electricity and is considered vital for clean energy technologies such as solar, wind energy, and electric vehicles.

Green energy-related copper demand is expected to increase by nearly 600% by 2030. In this scenario, the copper market could see an annual deficit of up to about 1.5 million tonnes by 2035.

Copper demand, per year, from green sectors

Despite having more than 53 million tons of copper reserves, the U.S. imports 45% of its copper from other countries.

This is the highest level of import reliance in over 30 years. One of the biggest reasons for this is the country’s mine permitting process.

A Rigorous Mine Permitting Process

Mines are large-scale projects that demand extensive research and policies. As a result, mining projects can take 16 years, or more, to start production.

Currently, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management—which regulates land use in the country—has a permitting backlog of more than 280 mining projects.

In addition, environmental activists have adopted a “not in my backyard” stance towards domestic mining. As a result, companies have often had to resort to litigation to make any progress in the permitting process.

“Activists have weaponized the government bodies that are essential to the safe and responsible development of domestic mines,” says Michael Westerlund, VP Investor Relations at Northern Dynasty Minerals.

The company owns the largest undeveloped copper deposit in the world, named Pebble, in Alaska. Pebble and other five major copper projects totaling over 11 billion tonnes in copper resources have been delayed because of the Federal permitting process.

The Largest Undeveloped Copper Deposit in the World

The Pebble Project has been through a roller coaster of regulatory activity for the past 15 years.

Recently, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency banned the depositing of mining waste near the mining project in Alaska, citing potential harm to the local sockeye salmon industry.

However, the veto directly contradicts findings from the Federal government that concluded that mining and fishing could coexist in the region.

“Alaska does resource development better than any other place on the planet, and our opportunities to show the world a better way to extract our resources should not be unfairly preempted by the Federal Government”
–Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy

Projects like Pebble can provide significant economic benefits and support the U.S. transition to a greener future. With the current regulatory uncertainty for U.S. developers, where the much-needed supply of copper will come from is unknown.

Click here to learn more about Pebble.

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Energy Shift

How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?

Copper and lithium will require the highest number of new mines.

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This graphic estimates the number of mines needed to meet the 2030 demand for energy transition materials.

How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?

The energy transition relies on the minerals necessary to build electric vehicles, batteries, solar farms, and wind turbines. In an economy moving away from fossil fuels every day, sourcing the materials required for this shift presents one of the biggest challenges.
This graphic forecasts the number of mines that must be developed to meet the expected demand for energy transition raw materials and chemicals by 2030. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence as of November 2024.

Nearly 300 Mines

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, meeting global battery demand by 2030 would require 293 new mines or plants.

Mineral2024 Supply (t)2030 Demand (t)Supply Needed (t)No. of Mines/PlantsType
Lithium1,181,0002,728,0001,547,00052Mine
Cobalt272,000401,000129,00026Mine
Nickel3,566,0004,949,0001,383,00028Mine
Natural Graphite1,225,0002,933,0001,708,00031Mine
Synthetic Graphite1,820,0002,176,000356,00012Plant
Manganese90,000409,000319,00021Plant
Purified Phosphoric Acid6,493,0009,001,0002,508,00033Plant
Copper22,912,00026,576,0003,664,00061Mine
Rare Earths83,711116,66332,95229Mine

Copper, used in wires and other applications, and lithium, essential for batteries, will require the most significant number of new mines.

Manganese production would need to increase more than fourfold to meet anticipated demand.

Not an Easy Task

Building new mines is one of the biggest challenges in reaching the expected demand.

After discovery and exploration, mineral projects must go through a lengthy process of research, permitting, and funding before becoming operational.

In the U.S., for instance, developing a new mine can take 29 years.

In contrast, Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Laos have some of the shortest development times in the world, at roughly 10 to 15 years.

 

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Energy Shift

Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources

Europe depends entirely on China for heavy rare earth elements, critical for technologies such as hybrid cars and fiber optics.

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This graphic shows the percentage of EU raw material supply sourced from China for 12 raw materials used in various industries.

Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Despite efforts by European countries to reduce their reliance on China for critical materials, the region remains heavily dependent on Chinese resources.

This graphic shows the percentage of EU raw material supply sourced from China for 12 raw materials used in various industries. Bloomberg published this data in May 2024 based on European Commission research.

China’s Dominance in Clean Energy Minerals

Europe is 100% dependent on China for heavy rare earth elements used in technologies such as hybrid cars, fiber optics, and nuclear power.

Additionally, 97% of the magnesium consumed in Europe, for uses ranging from aerospace alloys to automotive parts, comes from the Asian country.

Raw MaterialPercentage Supplied by ChinaUsage
Heavy rare earth elements100%nuclear reactors, TV screens, fiber optics
Magnesium97%Aerospace alloys, automotive parts
Light rare earth elements85%Catalysts, aircraft engines, magnets
Lithium79%Batteries, pharmaceuticals, ceramics
Gallium71%Semiconductors, LEDs, solar panels
Scandium67%Aerospace components, power generation, sports equipment
Bismuth65%Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, low-melting alloys
Vanadium62%Steel alloys, aerospace, tools
Baryte45%Oil and gas drilling, paints, plastics
Germanium45%Fiber optics, infrared optics, electronics
Natural graphite40%Batteries, lubricants, refractory materials
Tungsten32%Cutting tools, electronics, heavy metal alloys

Almost 80% of the lithium in electric vehicles and electronics batteries comes from China.

Assessing the Risks

The EU faces a pressing concern over access to essential materials, given the apprehension that China could “weaponize” its dominance of the sector.

One proposed solution is the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which entered into force in May 2024.

The act envisions a quota of 10% of all critical raw materials consumed in the EU to be produced within the EU.

Additionally, it calls for a significant increase in recycling efforts, totaling up to 25% of annual consumption in the EU. Lastly, it sets the target of reducing dependency for any critical raw material on a single non-EU country to less than 65% by 2030.

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