Energy Shift
Which Countries Are Most Reliant on Coal?
Which Countries Are Most Reliant on Coal?
Global energy policies and discussions in recent years have been focused on the importance of decarbonizing the energy system in the transition to net zero.
However, despite efforts to reduce carbon emissions, fossil fuels still account for more than 80% of primary energy use globally—and coal, the world’s most affordable energy fuel, is also the largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions.
The graphic above uses data from the Statistical Review of World Energy to show how much select countries rely on fossil fuels, particularly coal.
Coal’s Importance in Emerging Economies
Coal is the largest source of electricity generation and the primary fuel for iron, steel, and cement production, making it central to climate and energy discussions.
The fossil fuel continues to be an affordable and abundant source of energy, particularly in emerging economies where demand is expanding rapidly.
South Africa is the world’s most coal-dependent nation featured in the statistical review, with coal accounting for 69% of its primary energy consumption in 2022.
Primary energy use, by fuel type (2022) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Country | Coal % | Oil % | Gas % | Other % |
🇿🇦 South Africa | 69% | 22% | 3% | 6% |
🇨🇳 China | 55% | 18% | 8% | 18% |
🇮🇳 India | 55% | 27% | 6% | 11% |
🇮🇩 Indonesia | 45% | 31% | 14% | 10% |
🇻🇳 Vietnam | 45% | 22% | 6% | 27% |
🇵🇱 Poland | 42% | 34% | 15% | 9% |
🇵🇭 Philippines | 40% | 42% | 5% | 13% |
🇯🇵 Japan | 27% | 37% | 20% | 15% |
🇦🇺 Australia | 26% | 35% | 25% | 14% |
🇹🇷 Türkiye | 25% | 30% | 26% | 19% |
🇰🇷 South Korea | 23% | 43% | 17% | 17% |
🇺🇦 Ukraine | 22% | 17% | 30% | 31% |
🇲🇾 Malaysia | 19% | 36% | 37% | 8% |
🇩🇪 Germany | 19% | 35% | 23% | 23% |
🇹🇭 Thailand | 14% | 47% | 32% | 7% |
🇷🇺 Russia | 11% | 24% | 51% | 14% |
🇺🇸 U.S. | 10% | 38% | 33% | 19% |
🇮🇹 Italy | 5% | 40% | 38% | 16% |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 3% | 36% | 35% | 25% |
🇫🇷 France | 2% | 35% | 16% | 46% |
Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding. Select countries shown above.
In 2022, global consumption of coal surpassed 8 billion tonnes in a single year for the first time, with China and India being the two biggest consumers in absolute terms.
China’s power sector alone accounts for one-third of global coal consumption. Meanwhile, with a growth rate of 6% annually, India has doubled its coal consumption since 2007—and is expected to lead the growth in coal consumption for years to come.
Coal Demand in Developed Countries
U.S. consumption of coal has dropped almost 50% compared to the early 2010s.
With initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which includes nearly $370 billion to accelerate the U.S.’s energy transition, coal consumption is expected to remain on a downward trajectory in the United States.
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2023. The forecast is based on BP’s scenario for global net-zero emissions by 2050.
The same movement is seen in the European Union.
France, for example, only has 2.5% of its primary energy consumption coming from coal, a share that is just half of what it was in the early 2000s.
In Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, coal still accounts for 18.9% of total energy consumption (a small increase over 2021, due to the energy crisis). However, a decade ago in 2012, that number stood even higher at 24.9% of primary energy use.
With coal consumption falling in developed nations but remaining steady in emerging economies, the International Energy Agency projects that coal demand will plateau at 2022 levels until 2025 when it will begin to fall.
Electrification
Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030
Chinese companies are expected to control 46% of the cobalt supply by 2030.
Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030
Chinese dominance over critical minerals used in technologies like smartphones, electric vehicles (EVs), and solar power has become a growing concern for the U.S. and other Western countries.
Currently, China refines 68% of the world’s nickel, 40% of copper, 59% of lithium, and 73% of cobalt, and is continuing to expand its mining operations.
This graphic visualizes the total cobalt supply from the top 10 producers in 2030, highlighting China’s dominance. The data comes from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of July 2024.
Cobalt production (tonnes) | Non-Chinese Owned Production | Chinese Owned Production | 2030F (Total) | 2030F (Share) |
---|---|---|---|---|
🇨🇩 DRC | 94,989 | 109,159 | 204,148 | 67.9% |
🇮🇩 Indonesia | 23,288 | 25,591 | 48,879 | 16.3% |
🇦🇺 Australia | 7,070 | 0 | 7,070 | 2.4% |
🇵🇭 Philippines | 5,270 | 0 | 5,270 | 1.8% |
🇷🇺 Russia | 4,838 | 0 | 4,838 | 1.6% |
🇨🇦 Canada | 4,510 | 0 | 4,510 | 1.5% |
🇨🇺 Cuba | 4,496 | 0 | 4,496 | 1.5% |
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | 541 | 3,067 | 3,608 | 1.2% |
🇹🇷 Turkey | 2,835 | 0 | 2,835 | 0.9% |
🇳🇨 New Caledonia | 2,799 | 0 | 2,799 | 0.9% |
🌍 ROW | 10,336 | 1,901 | 12,237 | 4.1% |
Total | 160,974 | 139,718 | 300,692 | 100.0% |
China’s Footprint in Africa
Cobalt is a critical mineral with a wide range of commercial, industrial, and military applications. It has gained significant attention in recent years due to its use in battery production. Today, the EV sector accounts for 40% of the global cobalt market.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) currently produces 74% of the world’s cobalt supply. Although cobalt deposits exist in regions like Australia, Europe, and Asia, the DRC holds the largest reserves by far.
China is the world’s leading consumer of cobalt, with nearly 87% of its cobalt consumption dedicated to the lithium-ion battery industry.
Although Chinese companies hold stakes in only three of the top 10 cobalt-producing countries, they control over half of the cobalt production in the DRC and Indonesia, and 85% of the output in Papua New Guinea.
Given the DRC’s large share of global cobalt production, many Chinese companies have expanded their presence in the country, acquiring projects and forming partnerships with the Congolese government.
According to Benchmark, Chinese companies are expected to control 46% of the global cobalt mined supply by 2030, a 3% increase from 2023.
By 2030, the top 10 cobalt-producing countries will account for 96% of the total mined supply, with just two countries—the DRC and Indonesia—contributing 84% of the total.
Energy Shift
Visualizing the Decline of Copper Usage in EVs
Copper content in EVs has steadily decreased over the past decade, even as overall copper demand rises due to the increasing adoption of EVs.
Visualizing the Decline of Copper Usage in EVs
Copper intensity in passenger battery electric vehicles (BEVs) has steadily decreased over the last decade, driven by numerous technological advancements alongside increasing usage of alternative materials such as aluminum.
In this graphic, we visualize the evolution of copper demand in various subcomponents of passenger battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from 2015 to 2030F, along with total global copper demand driven by EVs for the same period. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
Copper Intensity Per Car
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the copper intensity per vehicle is expected to decline by almost 38 kg, from 99 kg in 2015 to 62 kg by 2030.
Year | Wiring | Motor | Copper Foil | Busbar | Auxiliary Motor | Charging Cable | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 30 | 8 | 41.26 | 13.23 | 2.87 | 3.96 | 99.32 |
2016 | 29 | 8 | 38.68 | 13.37 | 2.85 | 3.92 | 95.82 |
2017 | 28 | 7 | 32.67 | 12.72 | 2.84 | 3.90 | 87.13 |
2018 | 27 | 7 | 26.39 | 11.87 | 2.82 | 3.88 | 78.96 |
2019 | 26 | 7 | 28.00 | 10.85 | 2.78 | 3.82 | 78.45 |
2020 | 25 | 7 | 24.71 | 10.24 | 2.73 | 3.76 | 73.44 |
2021 | 24 | 6 | 25.27 | 9.29 | 2.69 | 3.70 | 70.95 |
2022 | 23 | 7 | 28.44 | 8.56 | 2.65 | 3.64 | 73.29 |
2023 | 22 | 7 | 29.87 | 8.12 | 2.61 | 3.58 | 73.18 |
2024F | 21 | 7 | 27.73 | 7.67 | 2.56 | 3.52 | 69.48 |
2025F | 20 | 7 | 27.79 | 7.19 | 2.52 | 2.51 | 67.01 |
2026F | 20 | 7 | 27.78 | 6.63 | 2.48 | 3.41 | 67.30 |
2027F | 19 | 8 | 27.55 | 6.15 | 2.44 | 3.35 | 66.49 |
2028F | 18 | 8 | 26.77 | 5.70 | 2.40 | 3.30 | 64.17 |
2029F | 18 | 8 | 26.17 | 5.51 | 2.39 | 3.28 | 63.35 |
2030F | 17 | 8 | 25.63 | 5.44 | 2.37 | 3.26 | 61.70 |
One of the most significant factors driving this decline is thrifting, where engineers and manufacturers continuously improve the efficiency and performance of various components, leading to reduced copper usage. A key example of this is in battery production, where the thickness of copper foil used in battery anodes has significantly decreased.
In 2015, Benchmark estimated copper foil usage was just over 41 kg per vehicle (at an average thickness of 10 microns), but by 2030, it is projected to fall to 26 kg as manufacturers continue to adopt thinner foils.
Similarly, automotive wiring systems have become more localized, with advances in high-voltage wiring and modular integration allowing for reduced copper content in wiring harnesses.
Copper used in wiring has dropped from 30 kg per vehicle in 2015 to a projected 17 kg by 2030.
Newer, more compact power electronics and improved thermal management in motors and charging cables have also contributed to the reduction in copper usage.
Substitution has also played a role, with alternatives such as aluminum increasingly being used in components like busbars, wiring harnesses, and charging cable applications.
Aluminum’s lighter weight and lower cost have made it a practical alternative to copper in specific applications, though the additional space required to achieve the same level of conductivity can limit its use in certain cases.
Benchmark estimates that copper used in automotive wire harnesses has declined by 30% between 2015 and 2024.
The Road Ahead
Despite reductions in per-vehicle copper usage, the outlook for copper demand from the EV sector remains strong due to the sector’s growth.
Year | EV Sector Copper Demand (tonnes) |
---|---|
2015 | 56K |
2016 | 82K |
2017 | 111K |
2018 | 166K |
2019 | 179K |
2020 | 237K |
2021 | 447K |
2022 | 696K |
2023 | 902K |
2024F | 1.0M |
2025F | 1.2M |
2026F | 1.5M |
2027F | 1.7M |
2028F | 2.0M |
2029F | 2.2M |
2030F | 2.5M |
Benchmark’s analysis indicates that by 2030, copper demand driven by EVs alone will exceed 2.5 million tonnes, securing copper’s critical role in the transition to a low-carbon future.
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