Real Assets
Does Gold’s Value Increase During Recessions?
Does Gold’s Value Increase During Recessions?
Gold has been traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, with many investors turning to the yellow metal during recessions and times of turmoil.
So, how does gold hold up when the economy tumbles?
The above graphic uses data from Macrotrends to highlight gold’s price movements during recessions and compares it to changes in the S&P 500.
Gold vs. the S&P 500 in Historical Recessions
Gold’s value comes from its scarcity as a precious metal, in addition to its long history as a stable medium of exchange.
Gold also has a low-to-negative correlation with the stock market, suggesting that changes in the price of gold are largely independent of how stocks are faring. As a result, gold is considered an effective diversification tool for investors who want to hedge their bets.
But has gold helped investors weather recessionary storms in the past?
| Recession year | Recession length | % change in nominal price of gold | % change in S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1973 | 16 months | 87% | -13.1% |
| 1980 | 6 months | -5.1% | 6.6% |
| 1981 | 16 months | 1.6% | 5.8% |
| 1990 | 8 months | 0.1% | 5.4% |
| 2001 | 8 months | 5.0% | -1.8% |
| 2007 | 18 months | 16.3% | -37.4% |
| 2020 | 2 months | 5.6% | -1.4% |
Since 1971, when the gold standard was abandoned, gold has largely seen positive price changes during recessions. And in the last three recessions since 2000, its performance has countered that of the S&P 500. While the increases in value haven’t been dramatic, they help cement gold’s position as a hedge against financial turmoil and as a store of value.
For example, when the stock market collapsed in 2007, investment demand for gold increased as investors looked for a safer option. Between 2007 and 2011, gold’s price more than doubled. Similarly, with fear and uncertainty at a high during the COVID-19 pandemic, gold-backed exchange-traded funds saw record inflows, and the price of gold reached an all-time high.
However, while gold’s price tends to rise during times of economic turmoil, it often stagnates or falls when the economy is healthy and investors seek riskier investments. As a result, it’s important for investors to consider the overall macroeconomic and geopolitical environment when looking at gold.
Gold’s Time to Shine in 2022?
The global economy has been shaking with turbulence in 2022, with consumers facing high inflation and investors seeing dismal stock market returns.
While these market conditions typically point towards rising demand for gold, that hasn’t been the case so far this year, with prices down 2% year-to-date. This is partly because of rising interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding gold as investors forgo the interest income they could earn from saving accounts or bonds.
But in fact, history shows that gold often outperforms U.S. stocks and the dollar following interest rate hikes, after underperforming in the lead-up to rate hikes. Additionally, high inflation is eroding the purchasing power of each dollar, incentivizing investment in a tangible asset like gold and other hard assets.
With geopolitical uncertainty at a high and the U.S. consumer sentiment at decade-lows, will gold prove its value as a safe-haven asset in 2022?
Real Assets
How Much Gold is in Fort Knox?
The United States Bullion Depository holds more than half of the Treasury’s $428B in gold reserves.
How Much Gold Is in Fort Knox?
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to visit Fort Knox “to make sure the gold is there.”
Officially, the United States Bullion Depository (commonly known as Fort Knox) holds over half of the Treasury’s $428 billion gold reserves.
In this graphic, we put that amount into perspective by comparing Fort Knox’s reserves with central bank gold reserves worldwide. The data comes from the U.S. Mint and the World Gold Council. For illustrative purposes, we considered a pallet of 1,190 gold bars (400 troy ounces each) weighing approximately 14.8 tonnes.
What Is Fort Knox?
Located in Kentucky, Fort Knox is a U.S. Army installation that serves as the primary storage site for America’s gold reserves. The facility was established in the 1930s to protect gold from potential foreign attacks.
The first gold shipment arrived in 1937 via U.S. Mail from the Philadelphia Mint and the New York Assay Office. During World War II, Fort Knox safeguarded important U.S. documents, including the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and the Bill of Rights. It has also housed international treasures, such as the Magna Carta and the crown, sword, scepter, orb, and cape of St. Stephen, King of Hungary, before they were returned in 1978.
Currently, it holds 4,175 tonnes of gold, equivalent to nearly half of China’s gold reserves and four times the Swiss central bank’s reserves.
| Reserves | Gold (Tonnes) |
|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. Reserves | 8,133 |
| 🏛️ Fort Knox | 4,175 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 2,280 |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 846 |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 1,040 |
| 🇮🇳 India | 876 |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 104 |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | 220 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 130 |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 120 |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand | 235 |
Only small samples have been removed for purity testing during audits; no major transfers have occurred for years.
Gold Bar Specifications
- Size: 7 inches × 3 5/8 inches × 1 3/4 inches
- Weight: 400 ounces (27.5 pounds)
Extreme Security
Only a select few know the full security procedures, and no single person knows how to fully open the vault.
In 1974, a group of journalists and a Congressional delegation were allowed inside—marking the first official visit since Fort Knox’s creation. Previously, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was the only person other than authorized personnel to access the vaults.
In 2017, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin, and several Congressional representatives became the second group to visit the vault.
Learn More on the Voronoi App 
If gold was shared equally, how much would you get? Check out this graphic to find out.
Real Assets
Charted: Top Suppliers of Aluminum and Steel to the U.S.
President Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports.
Charted: Top U.S. Suppliers of Aluminum and Steel
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, marking one of the most discussed measures of his first month back in the White House.
But which countries are most affected by these tariffs?
This map illustrates the top suppliers of aluminum and steel to the United States in 2024. The data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau. Aluminum includes unwrought aluminum, plates, sheets, and strips; bars, rods, and profiles; foil; wire; pipes and tubes; castings and forgings; and tube or pipe fittings.
Canada: The Largest Partner
Canada is by far the top supplier of both steel and aluminum to the United States. The neighboring country exported $9.4 billion worth of aluminum to the U.S. in 2024, significantly ahead of the second-largest exporter, the European Union, which exported $1.5 billion.
Canada also exported $7.1 billion worth of steel last year, compared to $7 billion from the European Union.
| Country | Steel Imports (USD) | Aluminum Imports (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Canada | $7.1B | $9.4B |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | $3.5B | $397M |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | $3.0B | - |
| 🇨🇳 China | $799M | $809M |
| 🇹🇼 Taiwan | $1.3B | - |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | $2.9B | $781M |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | $1.9B | $318M |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | $1.7B | - |
| 🇮🇳 India | $489M | $445M |
| 🇪🇺 European Union | $7B | $1.5B |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | - | $917M |
| 🇧🇭 Bahrain | - | $535M |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | - | $468M |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand | - | $271M |
| 🇬🇧 UK | $440M | - |
Mexico, South Korea, and Brazil are also among the top suppliers of steel to the United States. Meanwhile, the country imports aluminum from other key partners, including China, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Bahrain, and Argentina.
A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted that the U.S. produces less than 2% of the world’s primary aluminum.
Learn More on the Voronoi App
If you enjoyed this graphic, be sure to check out this chart illustrating the GDP impact of Trump’s tariffs on China.
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