Real Assets
Explained: How Interest Rate Hikes Affect Gold’s Price
Explained: How Interest Rate Hikes Affect Gold’s Price
Nearly every major market is affected by rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and gold is no exception.
While rising interest rates bring macroeconomic headwinds for equity valuations, gold has had a special relationship with interest rates in recent hikes.
This graphic uses data from the World Gold Council to show how gold, U.S. stocks, and the U.S. dollar have historically performed around interest rate hikes.
What are Interest Rates?
The target federal funds rate, often referred to in media coverage more broadly as “interest rates,” is a projected overnight lending rate for banks and credit unions set by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Banks and credit unions need to hold a certain amount of cash reserves at the end of each day, so they lend and borrow from each other overnight to ensure they meet reserve requirements (or get some extra income by lending excess cash).
The target federal funds rate gives an interest rate range of 0.25% that banks and credit unions must be within when determining interest rates for these overnight loans.
When the Federal Reserve wants to curb excess spending and inflation, it raises interest rates and implements tighter monetary policy, marking the beginnings of a “tightening cycle.” This goes on to have knock-on effects on nearly every business or public-facing interest rate, and in turn, nearly every asset.
How Do Assets Perform After Rate Hikes?
As rates rise during tightening cycles, holding onto and lending out cash becomes more profitable, often resulting in investors de-risking by selling assets like stocks and bonds.
During these times, investors also seek out uncorrelated assets that are uniquely connected to these macroeconomic factors, often turning to gold.
While gold underperforms compared to U.S. stocks and the dollar leading up to rate hikes, past tightening cycles saw gold hit new all-time highs in the 2000s.
| Median Asset Return Compared to Interest Rate Hikes | 1 Year Before | 6 Months Before | 6 Months After | 1 Year After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | +1% | -7% | +11% | +7.5% |
| U.S. Stocks | +14% | +6% | +4% | +6% |
| U.S. Dollar | 0% | +3% | -4% | +2% |
Source: World Gold Council
In December of 2015, Janet Yellen’s first rate hike marked gold’s bottom at $1,050 an ounce, right before the precious metal nearly doubled to all-time highs.
In the previous tightening cycle, which began with Alan Greenspan’s interest rate hike in June of 2004, similarly marked a bottom for gold at $380 an ounce. After, gold’s price rallied by 400% through both rising and falling interest rates, reaching just above $1,900 an ounce in 2011.
The upcoming tightening cycle in 2022 is expected to be aggressive, with Goldman Sachs raising their forecasted number of 25 basis point (0.25%) rate hikes this year from five to seven.
While gold’s price has chopped around the $1,700–1,900 range for more than the past year, the start of this new tightening cycle could be the catalyst that spurs the next gold bull run.
Real Assets
How Much Gold is in Fort Knox?
The United States Bullion Depository holds more than half of the Treasury’s $428B in gold reserves.
How Much Gold Is in Fort Knox?
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to visit Fort Knox “to make sure the gold is there.”
Officially, the United States Bullion Depository (commonly known as Fort Knox) holds over half of the Treasury’s $428 billion gold reserves.
In this graphic, we put that amount into perspective by comparing Fort Knox’s reserves with central bank gold reserves worldwide. The data comes from the U.S. Mint and the World Gold Council. For illustrative purposes, we considered a pallet of 1,190 gold bars (400 troy ounces each) weighing approximately 14.8 tonnes.
What Is Fort Knox?
Located in Kentucky, Fort Knox is a U.S. Army installation that serves as the primary storage site for America’s gold reserves. The facility was established in the 1930s to protect gold from potential foreign attacks.
The first gold shipment arrived in 1937 via U.S. Mail from the Philadelphia Mint and the New York Assay Office. During World War II, Fort Knox safeguarded important U.S. documents, including the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and the Bill of Rights. It has also housed international treasures, such as the Magna Carta and the crown, sword, scepter, orb, and cape of St. Stephen, King of Hungary, before they were returned in 1978.
Currently, it holds 4,175 tonnes of gold, equivalent to nearly half of China’s gold reserves and four times the Swiss central bank’s reserves.
| Reserves | Gold (Tonnes) |
|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. Reserves | 8,133 |
| 🏛️ Fort Knox | 4,175 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 2,280 |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 846 |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 1,040 |
| 🇮🇳 India | 876 |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 104 |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | 220 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 130 |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 120 |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand | 235 |
Only small samples have been removed for purity testing during audits; no major transfers have occurred for years.
Gold Bar Specifications
- Size: 7 inches × 3 5/8 inches × 1 3/4 inches
- Weight: 400 ounces (27.5 pounds)
Extreme Security
Only a select few know the full security procedures, and no single person knows how to fully open the vault.
In 1974, a group of journalists and a Congressional delegation were allowed inside—marking the first official visit since Fort Knox’s creation. Previously, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was the only person other than authorized personnel to access the vaults.
In 2017, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin, and several Congressional representatives became the second group to visit the vault.
Learn More on the Voronoi App 
If gold was shared equally, how much would you get? Check out this graphic to find out.
Real Assets
Charted: Top Suppliers of Aluminum and Steel to the U.S.
President Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports.
Charted: Top U.S. Suppliers of Aluminum and Steel
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, marking one of the most discussed measures of his first month back in the White House.
But which countries are most affected by these tariffs?
This map illustrates the top suppliers of aluminum and steel to the United States in 2024. The data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau. Aluminum includes unwrought aluminum, plates, sheets, and strips; bars, rods, and profiles; foil; wire; pipes and tubes; castings and forgings; and tube or pipe fittings.
Canada: The Largest Partner
Canada is by far the top supplier of both steel and aluminum to the United States. The neighboring country exported $9.4 billion worth of aluminum to the U.S. in 2024, significantly ahead of the second-largest exporter, the European Union, which exported $1.5 billion.
Canada also exported $7.1 billion worth of steel last year, compared to $7 billion from the European Union.
| Country | Steel Imports (USD) | Aluminum Imports (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Canada | $7.1B | $9.4B |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | $3.5B | $397M |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | $3.0B | - |
| 🇨🇳 China | $799M | $809M |
| 🇹🇼 Taiwan | $1.3B | - |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | $2.9B | $781M |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | $1.9B | $318M |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | $1.7B | - |
| 🇮🇳 India | $489M | $445M |
| 🇪🇺 European Union | $7B | $1.5B |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | - | $917M |
| 🇧🇭 Bahrain | - | $535M |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | - | $468M |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand | - | $271M |
| 🇬🇧 UK | $440M | - |
Mexico, South Korea, and Brazil are also among the top suppliers of steel to the United States. Meanwhile, the country imports aluminum from other key partners, including China, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Bahrain, and Argentina.
A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted that the U.S. produces less than 2% of the world’s primary aluminum.
Learn More on the Voronoi App
If you enjoyed this graphic, be sure to check out this chart illustrating the GDP impact of Trump’s tariffs on China.
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