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Explainer: What Key Factors Influence Gas Prices?

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The Four Factors that Influence U.S. Gas Prices

Explainer: What Key Factors Influence Gas Prices?

Across the United States, the cost of gas has been a hot topic of conversation lately, as prices reach record-breaking highs.

The national average now sits at $5.00 per gallon, and by the end of summer, this figure could grow to $6 per gallon, according to estimates by JPMorgan.

But before we can have an understanding of what’s happening at the pump, it’s important to first know what key factors dictate the price of gas.

This graphic, using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), outlines the main components that influence gas prices, providing each factor’s proportional impact on price.

The Four Main Factors

According to the EIA, there are four main factors that influence the price of gas:

  • Crude oil prices (54%)
  • Refining costs (14%)
  • Taxes (16%)
  • Distribution, and marketing costs (16%)

More than half the cost of filling your tank is influenced by the price of crude oil. Meanwhile, the rest of the price at the pump is split fairly equally between refining costs, marketing and distribution, and taxes.

Let’s look at each factor in more depth.

Crude Oil Prices

The most influential factor is the cost of crude oil, which is largely dictated by international supply and demand.

Despite being the world’s largest oil producer, the U.S. remains a net importer of crude oil, with the majority coming from Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. Because of America’s reliance on imports, U.S. gas prices are largely influenced by the global crude oil market.

A number of geopolitical factors can influence the crude oil market, but one of the biggest influences is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia.

Established in 1960, OPEC was created to combat U.S. dominance of the global oil market. OPEC sets production targets for its 13 member countries, and historically, oil prices have been linked to changes in OPEC production. Today, OPEC countries are responsible for about 60% of internationally traded petroleum.

Refining Costs

Oil needs to be refined into gasoline before it can be used by consumers, which is why refining costs are factored into the price of gas.

The U.S. has hundreds of refineries across the country. The country’s largest refinery, owned by the Saudi Arabian company ​​Saudi Aramco, processes around 607,000 barrels of oil per day.

The exact cost of refining varies, depending on a number of factors such as the type of crude oil used, the processing technology available at the refinery, and the gasoline requirements in specific parts of the country.

In general, refining capacity in the U.S. has not been keeping up with oil demand. Several refineries shut down throughout the pandemic, but even before COVID-19, refining capacity in the U.S. was lagging behind demand. Incredibly, there haven’t been any brand-new refining facilities built in the country since 1977.

Taxes

In the U.S., taxes also play a critical role in determining the price of gas.

Across America, the average gasoline tax is $0.57 per gallon, however, the exact amount fluctuates from state to state. Here’s a look at the top five states with the highest gas taxes:

RankStateGas tax (per gallon)
1California$0.87
2Illinois$0.78
3Pennsylvania$0.77
4Hawaii$0.77
5New Jersey$0.69

*Note: figures include both state and federal tax

States with high gas taxes usually spend the extra money on improvements to their infrastructure or local transportation. For instance, Illinois doubled its gas taxes in 2019 as part of a $45 billion infrastructure plan.

California, the state with the highest tax on gas, is expecting to see a rate increase this July, which will drive gas prices up by around three cents per gallon.

Distribution and Marketing Costs

Lastly, the costs of distribution and marketing have an impact on the price of gas.

Gasoline is typically shipped from refineries to local terminals via pipelines. From there, the gasoline is processed further to ensure it meets market requirements or local government standards.

Gas stations then distribute the final product to the consumer. The cost of running a gas station varies—some gas stations are owned and operated by brand-name refineries like Chevron, while others are smaller-scale operations owned by independent merchants.

The big-name brands run a lot of advertisements. According to Morning Consult, Chevron, BP PLC, Exxon Mobil Corp., and Royal Dutch Shell PLC aired TV advertisements in the U.S. more than 44,495 times between June 1, 2020, and Aug. 31, 2021.

How Does the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Impact U.S. Gas Prices?

If only a fraction of America’s oil comes from Russia, why is the Russia-Ukraine conflict impacting prices in the U.S.?

Because oil is bought and sold on a global commodities market. So, when countries imposed sanctions on Russian oil, that put a squeeze on global supply, which ultimately drove up prices.

This supply shock could keep prices high for a while unless the U.S. falls into a recession, which is a growing possibility based on how recent data is trending.

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Misc

Charted: The End-of-Life Recycling Rates of Select Metals

End-of-life recycling rates measure the percentage of a material that is recovered at the end of its useful life, rather than being disposed of or incinerated.

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A chart ranking the end-of-life recycling rates (EOL-RR) of commonly used metals in the economy, per 2021 data from the International Energy Agency.

Charted: The End-of-Life Recycling Rates of Select Metals

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on Apple or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

We visualize the end-of-life recycling rates (EOL-RR) of commonly used metals in the economy. Data is sourced from the International Energy Agency, last updated in 2021.

ℹ️ EOL-RR is the percentage of a material or product that is recycled or recovered at the end of its useful life, rather than being disposed of in landfills or incinerated.

Tracking recycling rates helps manage resources better and make smarter policies, guiding efforts to cut down on waste.

Ranked: The End of Life Recycling Rates of Select Metals

Gold has an 86% recycling rate according to the latest available data. Per the Boston Consulting Group, one-third of total gold supply was met through recycling between 1995–2014.

MetalEnd-of-life recycling
rate (2021)
🔍 Used In
Gold86%💍 Jewelry / Electronics
Platinum/Palladium60%🔬 Optical fibers / Dental fillings
Nickel60%🔋 Batteries / Turbine blades
Silver50%💍 Jewelry / Mirrors
Copper46%🔌 Electrical wiring / Industrial equipment
Aluminum42%✈️ Aeroplane parts / Cans
Chromium34%🍽️ Stainless steel / Leather tanning
Zinc33%🔗 Galvanizing metal / Making rubber
Cobalt32%🔋 Batteries / Turbine engines
Lithium0.5%🔋 Batteries / Pacemakers
REEs0.2%📱 Mobile phones / Hard drives

Note: Figures are rounded.

Several factors can influence metal recycling rates. According to this International Resource Panel report, metals that are used in large quantities (steel) or have a high value (gold) tend to have higher recycling rates.

However, for materials used in small quantities in complex products (rare earth elements in electronics), recycling becomes far more challenging.

Finally, a metal’s EOL-RR is strongly influenced by the least efficient link in the recycling chain, which is typically how it’s initially collected.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

If you enjoyed this post, check out Critical Materials: Where China, the EU, and the U.S. Overlap which shows how critical materials are classified within different jurisdictions.

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Misc

Companies with the Most Fossil Fuel and Cement CO2 Emissions

Half of the world’s total fossil fuel and cement carbon dioxide emissions in 2023 came from just 36 companies.

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Half of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions in 2023 came from just 36 companies. Here, we chart the world's biggest polluters.

Companies with the Most Fossil Fuel and Cement CO2 Emissions

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Key Takeaways

  • Half of the world’s fossil fuel and cement carbon dioxide emissions in 2023 came from just 36 entities, according to a report by the Carbon Majors Project
  • If Saudi Aramco were a country, it would be the fourth-largest polluter in the world, after China, the U.S., and India.
  • Five publicly traded oil companies—ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, and BP—together accounted for 5% of global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels.

Chinese Companies Dominate the List

This graphic is based on Carbon Majors, a database of historical production data from 180 of the world’s largest oil, gas, coal, and cement producers representing 169 active and 11 inactive entities.

In 2023, the top 20 highest carbon-producing entities were responsible for 17.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO₂e) in emissions, accounting for 40.8% of global fossil fuel and cement CO₂ emissions. The list is largely dominated by state-owned companies, with 16 of the top 20 being state-controlled. Notably, eight Chinese entities contributed to 17.3% of global fossil fuel and cement CO₂ emissions in 2023.

EntityTotal emissions (MtCO2e)Global CO2 emissions (%)
1Saudi Aramco4.4%
2Coal India3.7%
3CHN Energy3.7%
4Jinneng Group2.9%
5Cement industry of China2.8%
6National Iranian Oil Company2.8%
7Gazprom2.3%
8Rosneft1.9%
9Shandong Energy1.7%
10China National Coal Group1.7%
11Abu Dhabi National Oil Company1.6%
12CNPC1.6%
13Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group1.6%
14Iraq National Oil Company1.3%
15Shanxi Coking Coal Group1.3%
16ExxonMobil1.3%
17Sonatrach1.2%
18Chevron1.1%
19Kuwait Petroleum Corp.1.0%
20Petrobras1.0%
21Shell0.9%
22Pemex0.9%
23TotalEnergies0.8%
24QatarEnergy0.8%
25Lukoil0.8%
26BP0.8%
27Glencore0.7%
28China Huaneng Group0.7%
29Luan Chemical Group0.7%
30Equinor0.7%
31Peabody Energy0.7%
32Nigerian National Petroleum Corp.0.6%
33CNOOC0.6%
34ConocoPhillips0.6%
35Eni0.6%
36Petronas0.5%

Coal continued to be the largest source of emissions in 2023, representing 41.1% of emissions in the database and continuing a steady upward trend since 2016. Coal emissions grew by 1.9% (258 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent – MtCO₂e) from 2022, while cement saw the largest relative increase at 6.5% (82 MtCO₂e), driven by expanding production.

In contrast, natural gas emissions fell by 3.7% (164 MtCO₂e), and oil emissions remained stable with only a slight increase of 0.3% (73 MtCO₂e).

Learn More on the Voronoi App

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic that shows greenhouse gas emissions by sector in 2023, according to data was compiled by the United Nations. The power sector remains the largest emissions contributor.

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