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The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (2013-2022)

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Periodic table of commodity returns of last 10 years

The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (2013-2022)

Trying to predict which commodities will come out on top in any given year is tricky business—especially during this turbulent period in markets.

By looking back at previous years, investors can gain insights into long-term trends and patterns in commodity prices. To help better understand these trends, U.S. Global Investors releases a visualization called the Periodic Table of Commodity Returns at the outset of each year.

This year’s edition looks back over the past decade of returns between 2013 and 2022, and features an interactive design that allows users to sort returns by various categories including returns, volatility, and other groupings.

Editor’s note: Because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, regional benchmarks for some commodities (coal, natural gas) had much bigger price divergences than is typical. In this case the graphic focuses in on U.S. regional benchmarks like Powder River Basin coal and Henry Hub natural gas prices. These prices may differ from price action seen around the world.

More Volatility, but Positive Returns

After 2021 saw an impressive surge in commodity prices as the world reopened post-pandemic, 2022 brought another year of positive returns for the asset class that were defined by high levels of volatility.

The broad-based S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) surged 52.1% in the first five months of 2022, as supply disruptions and fears across grains, metals, and energy fuels were spurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The second half of the year saw prices cool as the U.S. continued to release crude oil from its strategic petroleum reserve while Russia and Ukraine established an agreement to enable grain and agricultural exports, quelling fears of extended supply disruptions.

The result? In the last seven months of the year the S&P GSCI nearly completed a return trip and only ended up rising 8.7% in 2022 overall.

Commodity2022 Returns
Lithium72.49%
Nickel43.13%
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)19.97%
Corn14.37%
Platinum10.90%
S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI)8.71%
Crude oil6.71%
Silver2.77%
Wheat2.76%
Lead-0.05%
Gold-0.28%
Palladium-5.89%
Copper-14.13%
Aluminum-16.27%
Zinc-16.34%
Coal (PRB)-48.34%

Another key factor that helped keep commodity prices cool in 2022 was China’s extended lockdowns which slowed down the country’s manufacturing and industrial capabilities. This helped reduce the demand of energy fuels in 2022, along with industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc.

Lithium Continues to Top Commodity Returns

A metal that did shine brightly in 2022 was lithium, which has been newly added to the Periodic Table of Commodity Returns.

After topping the table in 2021 with an outsized price increase of 442.8%, lithium kept its top spot in 2022 with a more modest price increase of 72.5%.

lithium in the commodities ranking 2013-2022

The growing global push towards electric vehicles (EVs) has been a major contributor to the increase in demand for lithium and nickel, which was the second-best performing commodity in 2022 with a price increase of 43.1%. As more countries set targets to phase out gasoline and diesel vehicles, demand for key battery minerals like lithium and nickel is expected to continue to rise.

While the U.S. is working to strengthen its battery metals production and supply chains with $2.8 billion in grants for domestic lithium, graphite, and nickel projects, it will be years before more supply comes online as a result. In the meantime, robust demand for EVs in China has provided a constant need for these battery metals which are currently in short supply.

Energy Price Variance Fueled by Regional Uncertainty

After 2021 saw energy fuels dominate the top spots after lithium, energy fuel prices in 2022 were more volatile with more scattered returns. Natural gas was the only fuel which saw double-digit returns at a 19.9%, with crude oil returning 6.7% and coal at the bottom of the table at -48.3%.

It’s important to keep in mind how geopolitical events and supply disruptions last year affected the regional price differences for energy fuels. While WTI crude oil (North America’s benchmark) increased by 6.7% in 2022, Brent crude oil (Europe’s benchmark) was up 10.4% as Urals crude oil (Russia’s benchmark) fell by more than 26.5%.

Type of Crude Oil2022 ReturnsPrice in U.S. dollars (Jan 17, 2023)
Brent Crude Oil (European benchmark)10.35%$86.72
WTI Crude Oil (North American benchmark)6.72%$81.01
Urals Crude Oil (Russian benchmark)-26.53%$55.60

As a result of the war and ensuing sanctions, the discount of Urals crude oil compared to Brent crude oil went from -$1.72 at the start of 2022 all the way to -$30.71 by the end of the year.

Thermal coal prices faced similar regional divergences, with Powder River Basin (PRB) coal (America’s benchmark for coal) falling by 48.3% this year while Newcastle coal, which is delivered out of the port of Newcastle, Australia primarily to various Asian nations, saw prices skyrocket up by 156.6% in 2022.

After such a wild year with huge variance in commodity prices, we’ll see if 2023 can bring some stability or if high volatility and growing regional price discrepancies will become the norm.

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Real Assets

How Much Gold is in Fort Knox?

The United States Bullion Depository holds more than half of the Treasury’s $428B in gold reserves.

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In this graphic we compare Fort Knox’s gold reserves with central bank gold reserves worldwide.

How Much Gold Is in Fort Knox?

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to visit Fort Knox “to make sure the gold is there.”

Officially, the United States Bullion Depository (commonly known as Fort Knox) holds over half of the Treasury’s $428 billion gold reserves.

In this graphic, we put that amount into perspective by comparing Fort Knox’s reserves with central bank gold reserves worldwide. The data comes from the U.S. Mint and the World Gold Council. For illustrative purposes, we considered a pallet of 1,190 gold bars (400 troy ounces each) weighing approximately 14.8 tonnes.

What Is Fort Knox?

Located in Kentucky, Fort Knox is a U.S. Army installation that serves as the primary storage site for America’s gold reserves. The facility was established in the 1930s to protect gold from potential foreign attacks.

The first gold shipment arrived in 1937 via U.S. Mail from the Philadelphia Mint and the New York Assay Office. During World War II, Fort Knox safeguarded important U.S. documents, including the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and the Bill of Rights. It has also housed international treasures, such as the Magna Carta and the crown, sword, scepter, orb, and cape of St. Stephen, King of Hungary, before they were returned in 1978.

Currently, it holds 4,175 tonnes of gold, equivalent to nearly half of China’s gold reserves and four times the Swiss central bank’s reserves.

ReservesGold (Tonnes)
🇺🇸 U.S. Reserves8,133
🏛️ Fort Knox4,175
🇨🇳 China2,280
🇯🇵 Japan846
🇨🇭 Switzerland1,040
🇮🇳 India876
🇰🇷 South Korea104
🇸🇬 Singapore220
🇧🇷 Brazil130
🇲🇽 Mexico120
🇹🇭 Thailand235

Only small samples have been removed for purity testing during audits; no major transfers have occurred for years.

Gold Bar Specifications

  • Size: 7 inches × 3 5/8 inches × 1 3/4 inches
  • Weight: 400 ounces (27.5 pounds)

Extreme Security

Only a select few know the full security procedures, and no single person knows how to fully open the vault.

In 1974, a group of journalists and a Congressional delegation were allowed inside—marking the first official visit since Fort Knox’s creation. Previously, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was the only person other than authorized personnel to access the vaults.

In 2017, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin, and several Congressional representatives became the second group to visit the vault.

Learn More on the Voronoi App 

If gold was shared equally, how much would you get? Check out this graphic to find out.

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Charted: Top Suppliers of Aluminum and Steel to the U.S.

President Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports.

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Charted: Top U.S. Suppliers of Aluminum and Steel

Charted: Top U.S. Suppliers of Aluminum and Steel

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, marking one of the most discussed measures of his first month back in the White House.

But which countries are most affected by these tariffs?

This map illustrates the top suppliers of aluminum and steel to the United States in 2024. The data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau. Aluminum includes unwrought aluminum, plates, sheets, and strips; bars, rods, and profiles; foil; wire; pipes and tubes; castings and forgings; and tube or pipe fittings. 

Canada: The Largest Partner

Canada is by far the top supplier of both steel and aluminum to the United States. The neighboring country exported $9.4 billion worth of aluminum to the U.S. in 2024, significantly ahead of the second-largest exporter, the European Union, which exported $1.5 billion.

Canada also exported $7.1 billion worth of steel last year, compared to $7 billion from the European Union.

CountrySteel Imports (USD)Aluminum Imports (USD)
🇨🇦 Canada$7.1B$9.4B
🇲🇽 Mexico$3.5B$397M
🇧🇷 Brazil$3.0B-
🇨🇳 China$799M$809M
🇹🇼 Taiwan$1.3B-
🇰🇷 South Korea$2.9B$781M
🇩🇪 Germany$1.9B$318M
🇯🇵 Japan$1.7B-
🇮🇳 India$489M$445M
🇪🇺 European Union$7B$1.5B
🇦🇪 UAE-$917M
🇧🇭 Bahrain-$535M
🇦🇷 Argentina-$468M
🇹🇭 Thailand-$271M
🇬🇧 UK$440M-

Mexico, South Korea, and Brazil are also among the top suppliers of steel to the United States. Meanwhile, the country imports aluminum from other key partners, including China, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Bahrain, and Argentina.

A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted that the U.S. produces less than 2% of the world’s primary aluminum.

Learn More on the Voronoi App 

If you enjoyed this graphic, be sure to check out this chart illustrating the GDP impact of Trump’s tariffs on China.

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