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The Countries Buying Russian Fossil Fuels Since the Invasion

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Bar chart of top importing nations of Russian fossil fuels

The Countries Buying Russian Fossil Fuels Since the Invasion

A year on from Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine, Russian fossil fuel exports are still flowing to various nations around the world.

According to estimates from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), since the invasion started about a year ago, Russia has made more than $315 billion in revenue from fossil fuel exports around the world, with nearly half ($149 billion) coming from EU nations.

This graphic uses data from the CREA to visualize the countries that have bought the most Russian fossil fuels since the invasion, showcasing the billions in revenue Russia has made from these exports.

Top Importers of Russian Fossil Fuels

As one might expect, China has been the top buyer of Russian fossil fuels since the start of the invasion. Russia’s neighbor and informal ally has primarily imported crude oil, which has made up more than 80% of its imports totaling more than $55 billion since the start of the invasion.

The EU’s largest economy, Germany, is the second-largest importer of Russian fossil fuels, largely due to its natural gas imports worth more than $12 billion alone.

CountryTotal Value of Russian Fossil Fuel Imports*Crude OilNatural GasCoal
🇨🇳 China$66.6B$54.9B$6.1B$5.7B
🇩🇪 Germany$26.1B$13.3B$12.1B$0.7B
🇹🇷 Turkey$25.9B$14.8B$7.5B$3.6B
🇮🇳 India$24.1B$20.8B$0$3.3B
🇳🇱 Netherlands$18.0B$16.2B$0.8B$1.0B
🇮🇹 Italy$14.8B$8.7B$5.6B$0.4B
🇵🇱 Poland$12.1B$8.9B$2.9B$0.3B
🇫🇷 France$9.5B$5.2B$4.2B$0.2B
🇧🇪 Belgium$9.2B$5.5B$3.5B$0.2B
🇭🇺 Hungary$8.6B$2.7B$5.9B$0
🇧🇬 Bulgaria$6.4B$3.9B$2.5B$0
🇸🇰 Slovakia$6.2B$3.1B$3.1B$0
🇯🇵 Japan$6.0B$0.6B$3.7B$1.7B
🇰🇷 South Korea$6.0B$1.8B$0.8B$3.5B
🇪🇸 Spain$5.8B$2.7B$2.9B$0.2B
🇦🇹 Austria$5.7B$0.1B$5.6B$0
🇪🇬 Egypt$5.4B$4.9B$0$0.4B
🇬🇷 Greece$4.5B$4.3B$0.2B$0
🇨🇿 Czechia$4.2B$2.7B$1.5B$0
🇦🇪 UAE$4.1B$4.1B$0$0.1B

*Over the time period of Feb 24, 2022 to Feb 26, 2023 in U.S. dollars

Turkey, a member of NATO but not of the EU, closely follows Germany as the third-largest importer of Russian fossil fuels since the invasion. The country is likely to overtake Germany soon, as not being part of the EU means it isn’t affected by the bloc’s Russian import bans put in place over the last year.

Although more than half of the top 20 fossil fuel importing nations are from the EU, nations from the bloc and the rest of Europe have been curtailing their imports as bans and price caps on Russian coal imports, crude oil seaborne shipments, and petroleum product imports have come into effect.

Russia’s Declining Fossil Fuel Revenues

The EU’s bans and price caps have resulted in a decline of daily fossil fuel revenues from the bloc of nearly 85%, falling from their March 2022 peak of $774 million per day to $119 million as of February 22nd, 2023.

Although India has stepped up its fossil fuel imports in the meantime, from $3 million daily on the day of the invasion to $81 million per day as of February 22nd of this year, this increase doesn’t come close to making up the $655 million hole left by EU nations’ reduction in imports.

Similarly, even if African nations have doubled their Russian fuel imports since December of last year, Russian seaborne oil product exports have still declined by 21% overall since January according to S&P Global.

Other Factors Impacting Revenues

Overall, from their peak on March 24th of around $1.17 billion in daily revenue, Russian fossil fuel revenues have declined by more than 50% to just $560 million daily.

Along with the EU’s reductions in purchases, a key contributing factor has been the decline in Russian crude oil’s price, which has also declined by nearly 50% since the invasion, from $99 a barrel to $50 a barrel today.

Whether these declines will continue is yet to be determined. That said, the EU’s 10th set of sanctions, announced on February 25th, ban the import of bitumen, related materials like asphalt, synthetic rubbers, and carbon blacks and are estimated to reduce overall Russian export revenues by almost $1.4 billion.

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Electrification

Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030

Chinese companies are expected to control 46% of the cobalt supply by 2030.

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This graphic visualizes the total cobalt supply from the top ten producers in 2030, highlighting China's dominance.

Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030

Chinese dominance over critical minerals used in technologies like smartphones, electric vehicles (EVs), and solar power has become a growing concern for the U.S. and other Western countries.

Currently, China refines 68% of the world’s nickel, 40% of copper, 59% of lithium, and 73% of cobalt, and is continuing to expand its mining operations.

This graphic visualizes the total cobalt supply from the top 10 producers in 2030, highlighting China’s dominance. The data comes from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of July 2024.

Cobalt production (tonnes)Non-Chinese Owned
Production
Chinese Owned
Production
2030F (Total)2030F (Share)
🇨🇩 DRC94,989109,159204,14867.9%
🇮🇩 Indonesia23,28825,59148,87916.3%
🇦🇺 Australia7,07007,0702.4%
🇵🇭 Philippines5,27005,2701.8%
🇷🇺 Russia4,83804,8381.6%
🇨🇦 Canada4,51004,5101.5%
🇨🇺 Cuba4,49604,4961.5%
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea5413,0673,6081.2%
🇹🇷 Turkey2,83502,8350.9%
🇳🇨 New Caledonia2,79902,7990.9%
🌍 ROW10,3361,90112,2374.1%
Total160,974139,718300,692100.0%

China’s Footprint in Africa

Cobalt is a critical mineral with a wide range of commercial, industrial, and military applications. It has gained significant attention in recent years due to its use in battery production. Today, the EV sector accounts for 40% of the global cobalt market.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) currently produces 74% of the world’s cobalt supply. Although cobalt deposits exist in regions like Australia, Europe, and Asia, the DRC holds the largest reserves by far.

China is the world’s leading consumer of cobalt, with nearly 87% of its cobalt consumption dedicated to the lithium-ion battery industry.

Although Chinese companies hold stakes in only three of the top 10 cobalt-producing countries, they control over half of the cobalt production in the DRC and Indonesia, and 85% of the output in Papua New Guinea.

Given the DRC’s large share of global cobalt production, many Chinese companies have expanded their presence in the country, acquiring projects and forming partnerships with the Congolese government.

According to Benchmark, Chinese companies are expected to control 46% of the global cobalt mined supply by 2030, a 3% increase from 2023.

By 2030, the top 10 cobalt-producing countries will account for 96% of the total mined supply, with just two countries—the DRC and Indonesia—contributing 84% of the total.

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Energy Shift

Visualizing the Decline of Copper Usage in EVs

Copper content in EVs has steadily decreased over the past decade, even as overall copper demand rises due to the increasing adoption of EVs.

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The total copper per vehicle is projected to decrease by 38 kg between 2015 and 2030.

Visualizing the Decline of Copper Usage in EVs

Copper intensity in passenger battery electric vehicles (BEVs) has steadily decreased over the last decade, driven by numerous technological advancements alongside increasing usage of alternative materials such as aluminum.

In this graphic, we visualize the evolution of copper demand in various subcomponents of passenger battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from 2015 to 2030F, along with total global copper demand driven by EVs for the same period. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

Copper Intensity Per Car

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the copper intensity per vehicle is expected to decline by almost 38 kg, from 99 kg in 2015 to 62 kg by 2030.

YearWiringMotorCopper FoilBusbarAuxiliary MotorCharging CableTotal
201530841.2613.232.873.9699.32
201629838.6813.372.853.9295.82
201728732.6712.722.843.9087.13
201827726.3911.872.823.8878.96
201926728.0010.852.783.8278.45
202025724.7110.242.733.7673.44
202124625.279.292.693.7070.95
202223728.448.562.653.6473.29
202322729.878.122.613.5873.18
2024F21727.737.672.563.5269.48
2025F20727.797.192.522.5167.01
2026F20727.786.632.483.4167.30
2027F19827.556.152.443.3566.49
2028F18826.775.702.403.3064.17
2029F18826.175.512.393.2863.35
2030F17825.635.442.373.2661.70

One of the most significant factors driving this decline is thrifting, where engineers and manufacturers continuously improve the efficiency and performance of various components, leading to reduced copper usage. A key example of this is in battery production, where the thickness of copper foil used in battery anodes has significantly decreased.

In 2015, Benchmark estimated copper foil usage was just over 41 kg per vehicle (at an average thickness of 10 microns), but by 2030, it is projected to fall to 26 kg as manufacturers continue to adopt thinner foils.

Similarly, automotive wiring systems have become more localized, with advances in high-voltage wiring and modular integration allowing for reduced copper content in wiring harnesses.

Copper used in wiring has dropped from 30 kg per vehicle in 2015 to a projected 17 kg by 2030.

Newer, more compact power electronics and improved thermal management in motors and charging cables have also contributed to the reduction in copper usage.

Substitution has also played a role, with alternatives such as aluminum increasingly being used in components like busbars, wiring harnesses, and charging cable applications.

Aluminum’s lighter weight and lower cost have made it a practical alternative to copper in specific applications, though the additional space required to achieve the same level of conductivity can limit its use in certain cases.

Benchmark estimates that copper used in automotive wire harnesses has declined by 30% between 2015 and 2024.

The Road Ahead

Despite reductions in per-vehicle copper usage, the outlook for copper demand from the EV sector remains strong due to the sector’s growth.

YearEV Sector Copper Demand (tonnes)
201556K
201682K
2017111K
2018166K
2019179K
2020237K
2021447K
2022696K
2023902K
2024F1.0M
2025F1.2M
2026F1.5M
2027F1.7M
2028F2.0M
2029F2.2M
2030F2.5M

Benchmark’s analysis indicates that by 2030, copper demand driven by EVs alone will exceed 2.5 million tonnes, securing copper’s critical role in the transition to a low-carbon future.

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