Real Assets
2022’s Stores of Value: Gold, Oil and Grains
Gold, Oil and Grains Emerge as 2022’s Stores of Value
2022 started off with a slump for equity and cryptocurrency prices, but real assets like gold, crude oil, and agricultural commodities have more than held their dollar value.
Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resulted in extreme uncertainty over energy and raw material exports from both nations, commodities had already started to outperform other assets.
This graphic looks at how five key assets have performed in 2022 thus far, comparing the prices of WTI crude oil, the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund, gold, the S&P 500, and bitcoin.
Commodities Surge to Start off 2022
Just a few months into 2022 and commodities have already surged by double digits while nearly every other asset class has struggled to hold its value. Equity indices have continued to slide downwards from their all-time highs set in January of this year, with the S&P 500 down 13.4% from its all-time high.
Although the Energy sector of the S&P 500 is up 33.4% and the Information Technology sector is down 18.9% YTD, tech makes up more than a quarter of the index at 28.1% while Energy only makes up 3.7%. Other speculative tech assets like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have also significantly drawn down in 2022, with bitcoin down 16.3% and the total crypto sector’s market cap down by 22.4%.
Asset | 2021 Performance | 2022 Performance YTD |
---|---|---|
WTI Crude Oil | +56.4% | +34.4% |
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund | +22.4% | +10.4% |
Gold | -3.6% | +6.7% |
S&P 500 | +26.9% | -12.4% |
Bitcoin | +59.4% | -16.3% |
Source: TradingView
Prices as of March 14, 2022
In the meantime, commodity investors have seen record-breaking rallies and volatility, especially in the energy and agricultural sectors. Crude oil is already up 34.4% in 2022 after WTI Crude reached highs of $129 a barrel, and the Invesco DB Agriculture fund which tracks wheat, corn, soybeans, and other agricultural commodities is up 10.4% YTD.
Gold Recovers 2021’s Losses as Rate Hike Looms
While 2021 saw metals and energy prices surge, precious metals like gold and silver lagged behind the pack with negative returns. However, the Fed’s suggestion of raising interest rates has seen investors move out of speculative growth assets and into gold which has historically outperformed other assets in tightening cycles.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also spurred investors towards gold in a flight to safety, with the yellow metal’s price rallying by more than six percent in February, the month of the invasion.
As Russia is cut off and cuts itself off from trade with the U.S. and other Western countries, a new trade system with China that primarily uses gold-backed settlement akin to the petroyuan could push gold prices even higher.
Sanctions and Supply Shocks Fuel Crude Oil and Wheat Rallies
Not long after the U.S. announced sanctions against Russia alongside the European Union and G7 nations, Russia immediately responded with comprehensive export bans against 48 different countries including the U.S. and the EU.
Currently, Russia is one of the biggest crude oil exporters in the world and exported around 4.7 million barrels of crude oil a day for a total export value of $110 billion in 2021.
Agriculture and specifically wheat prices have also surged as the invasion began, as both Russia and Ukraine are two of the world’s biggest wheat exporters. As a result of the uncertainty around these vital agricultural exports, wheat prices have skyrocketed nearly 40% over the past two months, and Russia has added fuel to the fire with a temporary grain export ban against ex-Soviet nations.
While the start of 2022 has seen a sizable shift in value towards commodities, we’ll see if these prices stabilize while stocks and crypto recover, or if this year is the beginning of a new commodity supercycle.
Real Assets
Charted: Major Copper Discoveries Since 1900
Copper discoveries are becoming increasingly rare and often found deeper underground.
Visualized: Major Copper Discoveries Since 1900
In the evolving landscape of copper mining, deposits are increasingly challenging to locate and extract.
As deposits are found deeper underground, accessing these resources becomes more costly and technically complex, ultimately impacting copper prices.
To highlight this trend, Visual Capitalist partnered with BHP to show the depths and sizes of major copper discoveries found since 1900.
A Century of Copper Discoveries
This graphic shows copper discoveries with over 3 million metric tons of copper equivalent, based on data from MinEx Consulting and BHP up to 2022.
The latest major discovery, made by Filo del Sol in 2020, lies 600 meters below ground and contains just over 11 million metric tons of copper equivalent.
Deposit Name | Discovery Year | Million metric tons of copper equivalent | Depth (Meters) |
---|---|---|---|
Filo Del Sol | 2020 | 11 | -600 |
Hu'u | 2015 | 15 | -550 |
Kakula | 2014 | 19 | -200 |
Cascabel | 2013 | 12 | -25 |
Timok | 2012 | 16 | -460 |
Los Helados | 2009 | 11 | -350 |
Kamoa | 2008 | 25 | -70 |
Los Sulfatos | 2007 | 45 | -320 |
Heruga | 2005 | 7 | -950 |
Carapateena | 2005 | 5 | -470 |
Pebble | 2002 | 37 | -80 |
Resolution | 2002 | 27 | -1280 |
Hugo Dummett | 2002 | 19 | -500 |
Centinela (Sulphide) | 2000 | 18 | -350 |
Spence Cu Camp | 1996 | 15 | -100 |
Escondida Norte | 1995 | 10 | -200 |
Tampakan | 1992 | 15 | -200 |
Collahuasi Cu Au Camp | 1991 | 92 | -75 |
Batu Hijau | 1990 | 8 | -45 |
Ministro Hales | 1989 | 24 | -300 |
Grasberg-Ertsberg Project (Camp) | 1988 | 57 | -25 |
Escondida (Main Deposit) | 1981 | 85 | -40 |
Los Bronces | 1978 | 33 | -20 |
Salobo | 1977 | 10 | -40 |
Olympic Dam | 1975 | 86 | -350 |
Antamina | 1974 | 27 | -30 |
Los Pelambres | 1971 | 38 | -20 |
Ok Tedi | 1969 | 9 | -20 |
Sar Cheshmeh Cu Camp | 1967 | 30 | -20 |
El Abra Cu Camp | 1965 | 18 | -20 |
Panguna | 1965 | 9 | -20 |
Kidd Creek | 1963 | 5 | -30 |
Lubin Cu Camp | 1957 | 66 | -5 |
Palabora | 1956 | 8 | -35 |
Andina Cu Camp | 1955 | 144 | -20 |
Chambishi | 1952 | 6 | -13 |
Gaisky Complex | 1950 | 8 | -30 |
Udokan | 1949 | 27 | -15 |
Kamoto Cu/Co-Operation | 1940 | 26 | -3 |
Konkola (Bancroft) | 1935 | 19 | -5 |
Kalmakyr | 1931 | 10 | -5 |
Dzhezkazgan | 1929 | 22 | -5 |
Nkana (Rokana) Division | 1928 | 11 | -5 |
Cananea Cu Camp | 1926 | 35 | -5 |
Mufulira | 1923 | 16 | -10 |
Nchanga | 1923 | 15 | -10 |
Tenke Fungurume | 1918 | 27 | -5 |
Chuquicamata Cu Camp | 1910 | 131 | -5 |
El Teniente | 1904 | 127 | -5 |
Ely/Robinson | 1902 | 6 | -5 |
Andina Copper Camp, discovered in 1955 in Chile, holds a massive 144 million metric tons of copper equivalent, making it the largest deposit discovered since 1900. However, deposits of this scale near the surface are becoming increasingly rare.
Notable discoveries like the Escondida deposit, found at a relatively shallow depth of only 40 meters in 1981, contrast sharply with newer, deeper finds like the Resolution deposit, discovered in 2002 at a depth of 1,280 meters.
The Future of Copper Mining
This trend in recent copper discoveries highlights that copper mines are harder to develop than ever before.
And while copper recycling is expected to play an essential role in meeting growing demand, it won’t be sufficient on its own, according to BHP. An emphasis on primary supply, along with technological progress that improves mine productivity, is crucial.
Overall, BHP’s analysis estimates that a $250 billion investment in the sector is necessary in the next decade to overcome these challenges.
Get more copper insights in BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook.
Real Assets
How Gold Beats Uncertainty, in 7 Charts
The following content is sponsored by the Reagan Gold Group
The U.S. economy may not be as strong as it previously was. GDP growth in 2023 was 2.5% compared to 5.8% in 2021. High levels of public debt and geopolitical tensions have dissuaded other nations from using the dollar, which could create inflationary pressure on Americans. Could investing in gold provide the solution?
This charticle, sponsored by the Reagan Gold Group, will explore the U.S. economic climate and how gold can help Americans protect their investments.
#1: High Levels of Public Debt
The U.S. public deficit has grown considerably over the last decade. According to the U.S. Treasury, as of September 30th, 2024, total public debt stood at $35,464,673,929,172–if called in, it would be as every U.S. citizen would have to pay over $100,000.
High levels of public debt can negatively affect the U.S. economy. Interest payments can divert funds from where needed and reduce economic growth. However, public debt alone does not break an economy.
For example, Japan’s sovereign debt is more than 250% of GDP, but as much of the debt is held by Japan’s central bank, its robust and asset-focused balance sheet mitigates much of the potential instability.
#2: Less U.S. Dollars in International Systems
Another global trend that could impact the U.S. economy has slowly emerged since World War II–the dollar has lessened its circulation among international markets. The IMF reports that global FX reserves held in USD have notably declined, dropping from 71% in 2000 to 58% in 2023.
Geopolitical tensions have contributed to fewer U.S. dollars flowing through the global banking and exchange systems. This reduction in demand for U.S. dollars impacts the nation’s overall economic influence globally, potentially creating instability in other areas.
#3: Subpar Returns for U.S. Pension Funds
The performance of the largest pension funds in the U.S. over the last five years shows slightly depressed returns, especially when compared to gold.
Inflation and the overall reduction in the dollar’s economic power create a situation where, as pressure mounts, retirement payments may not stretch as far as retirees hope. This situation has led to many, including central banks, seeking insurance.
Could investing in gold be that insurance?
#4: Rising Gold Spot Prices
Despite financial crises, rising geo-political tensions, and a global pandemic, gold performance over the last 20 years has been strong, with its spot price growing aggressively:
Historically, gold has held its value against inflation, and its continued growth over the years has made it a sound investment in times of turmoil. So, considering the current economic climate, it’s no surprise that many investors are turning to gold.
#5: Increasing Demand from Central Banks
As if underlining the importance of gold, central banks have also increased their gold purchases by over 30% over the last five years.
When the World Gold Council asked central bankers, “How relevant are the following factors in your organization’s decision to hold gold?” The most common, highly relevant answers were that gold has no default risk, its performance in crises, and its value as a hedge against inflation, at 49%, 47%, and 42%, respectively.
#6: The Growth of Gold
When compared against other assets, gold’s current performance shows that it is more than just a hedge against inflation over the long term:
Gold’s recent performance has eclipsed many other assets over the long and short term, with its price growing at a higher rate than even the Emerging Markets Index.
#7: Gold Returns vs. Other Assets
In fact, gold was one of the better-performing overall assets between 2023 and 2024, returning nearly 14%.
Indeed, keeping to its history of consistency, investing in gold has provided percentage returns above other lauded long-term assets such as bonds.
A Golden Opportunity
The U.S. economy may not be what it was, with economic and geopolitical turmoil creating inflationary stresses that pressure lower-performing assets such as retirement funds.
Institutional and personal investors want to protect their wealth, and physical gold has proven to be one of the best hedges against uncertainty.
Learn more about how gold can protect your investments.
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