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Visualizing the EU’s Energy Dependency

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Visualizing the EU’s Energy Dependency

In response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. and EU have imposed heavy sanctions aimed at crippling the Russian economy. However, these bold actions also come with some potentially messy complications: Russia is not only one of the world’s largest exporters of energy products, but it is also Europe’s biggest supplier of these fuels.

As of October 2021, Russia supplied 25% of all oil imported by the EU, which is three times more than the second-largest trade partner. Naturally, the policies and circumstances that have led to this dependency have been under major scrutiny in recent weeks.

To help you learn more, this infographic visualizes energy data from Eurostat.

Energy Dependency, by Country

To start, let’s compare the energy dependence of each EU member, both in 2000 and 2020 (the latest year available). This metric shows the extent to which a country relies upon imports to meet its energy needs.

Note that Denmark’s value of -35.9% for the year 2000 is not a typo. Rather, it means that the country was a net exporter of energy.

Country20002020
🇦🇹 Austria65.5%58.3%
🇧🇪 Belgium78.2%78.0%
🇧🇬 Bulgaria46.4%37.9%
🇭🇷 Croatia48.5%53.6%
🇨🇾 Cyprus98.6%93.1%
🇨🇿 Czechia22.7%38.9%
🇩🇰 Denmark-35.9%44.9%
🇪🇪 Estonia34.0%10.6%
🇫🇮 Finland55.5%42.0%
🇫🇷 France51.2%44.5%
🇩🇪 Germany59.4%63.7%
🇬🇷 Greece69.1%81.4%
🇭🇺 Hungary55.0%56.6%
🇮🇪 Ireland85.4%71.3%
🇮🇹 Italy86.5%73.5%
🇱🇻 Latvia61.0%45.5%
🇱🇹 Lithuania57.8%74.9%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg99.6%92.5%
🇲🇹 Malta100.2%97.6%
🇳🇱 Netherlands38.3%68.1%
🇵🇱 Poland10.7%42.8%
🇵🇹 Portugal85.3%65.3%
🇷🇴 Romania21.9%28.2%
🇸🇰 Slovakia65.1%56.3%
🇸🇮 Slovenia51.9%45.8%
🇪🇸 Spain76.8%67.9%
🇸🇪 Sweden39.3%33.5%
Average56.3%57.5%

Over this 20-year timeframe, the EU-27 average country’s energy dependence has increased from 56.3% to 57.5%, meaning EU members became slightly more reliant on energy imports over those two decades.

Where Do EU’s Energy Imports Come From?

Looking further into energy imports reveals that Russia is the main supplier of crude oil, coal, and natural gas. Continue below for more details.

Crude Oil Imports

The EU imports more crude oil from Russia than the next three countries combined.

CountryPercentage of total
🇷🇺 Russia26.9%
🇮🇶 Iraq9.0%
🇳🇬 Nigeria7.9%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia7.7%
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan7.3%
🇳🇴 Norway7.0%
🇱🇾 Libya6.2%
🇺🇸 United States5.3%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom4.9%
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan4.5%
🇩🇿 Algeria2.4%
Others10.9%

This shouldn’t come as a surprise, as Russia was the world’s third largest producer of oil in 2020. The country has several state-owned oil companies including Rosneft and Gazprom.

Coal Imports

Coal-fired power plants are still being used across the EU, though most member states expect to completely phase them out by 2030.

CountryPercentage of total
🇷🇺 Russia46.7%
🇺🇸 United States17.7%
🇦🇺 Australia13.7%
🇨🇴 Colombia8.2%
🇿🇦 South Africa2.8%
Others10.9%

Russia has the second largest coal reserves in the world. In 2020, it mined 328 million metric tons, making it the sixth largest producer globally.

Natural Gas Imports

Natural gas is commonly used to heat buildings and water. A majority of the EU’s supply comes from Russia via the Nord Stream series of pipelines.

CountryPercentage of total
🇷🇺 Russia41.1%
🇳🇴 Norway16.2%
🇩🇿 Algeria7.6%
🇶🇦 Qatar5.2%
Others29.9%

Nord Stream 1 is the longest sub-sea pipeline in the world and was completed in 2011. It starts from the Russian city of Vyborg and connects to the EU through Germany.

Nord Stream 2 is a recently constructed expansion which was expected to double the project’s capacity. Germany has since halted the approval process for this pipeline in response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

What Happens Now?

In retaliation against Western sanctions, Russia has announced an impending ban on exports of certain goods and raw materials.

European gas prices skyrocketed in response, as many fear that Russia could cut off natural gas supplies. This, of course, would have very negative effects on both consumers and businesses.

In early March 2022, both the European Commission and the International Energy Agency (IEA) introduced proposals on how Europe could reduce its energy dependency.

We must become independent from Russian oil, coal and gas. We simply cannot rely on a supplier who explicitly threatens us.
– Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission

Cutting off one’s biggest supplier is likely to cause issues, especially when dealing with something as critical as energy. Few countries have the capacity (or willingness) to immediately replace Russian imports.

The proposals also discussed options for boosting Europe’s domestic output, though the commission’s report notably excluded nuclear power. For various reasons, nuclear remains a polarizing topic in Europe, with countries taking either a pro or anti stance.

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Electrification

Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030

Chinese companies are expected to control 46% of the cobalt supply by 2030.

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This graphic visualizes the total cobalt supply from the top ten producers in 2030, highlighting China's dominance.

Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030

Chinese dominance over critical minerals used in technologies like smartphones, electric vehicles (EVs), and solar power has become a growing concern for the U.S. and other Western countries.

Currently, China refines 68% of the world’s nickel, 40% of copper, 59% of lithium, and 73% of cobalt, and is continuing to expand its mining operations.

This graphic visualizes the total cobalt supply from the top 10 producers in 2030, highlighting China’s dominance. The data comes from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of July 2024.

Cobalt production (tonnes)Non-Chinese Owned
Production
Chinese Owned
Production
2030F (Total)2030F (Share)
🇨🇩 DRC94,989109,159204,14867.9%
🇮🇩 Indonesia23,28825,59148,87916.3%
🇦🇺 Australia7,07007,0702.4%
🇵🇭 Philippines5,27005,2701.8%
🇷🇺 Russia4,83804,8381.6%
🇨🇦 Canada4,51004,5101.5%
🇨🇺 Cuba4,49604,4961.5%
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea5413,0673,6081.2%
🇹🇷 Turkey2,83502,8350.9%
🇳🇨 New Caledonia2,79902,7990.9%
🌍 ROW10,3361,90112,2374.1%
Total160,974139,718300,692100.0%

China’s Footprint in Africa

Cobalt is a critical mineral with a wide range of commercial, industrial, and military applications. It has gained significant attention in recent years due to its use in battery production. Today, the EV sector accounts for 40% of the global cobalt market.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) currently produces 74% of the world’s cobalt supply. Although cobalt deposits exist in regions like Australia, Europe, and Asia, the DRC holds the largest reserves by far.

China is the world’s leading consumer of cobalt, with nearly 87% of its cobalt consumption dedicated to the lithium-ion battery industry.

Although Chinese companies hold stakes in only three of the top 10 cobalt-producing countries, they control over half of the cobalt production in the DRC and Indonesia, and 85% of the output in Papua New Guinea.

Given the DRC’s large share of global cobalt production, many Chinese companies have expanded their presence in the country, acquiring projects and forming partnerships with the Congolese government.

According to Benchmark, Chinese companies are expected to control 46% of the global cobalt mined supply by 2030, a 3% increase from 2023.

By 2030, the top 10 cobalt-producing countries will account for 96% of the total mined supply, with just two countries—the DRC and Indonesia—contributing 84% of the total.

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Energy Shift

Visualizing the Decline of Copper Usage in EVs

Copper content in EVs has steadily decreased over the past decade, even as overall copper demand rises due to the increasing adoption of EVs.

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The total copper per vehicle is projected to decrease by 38 kg between 2015 and 2030.

Visualizing the Decline of Copper Usage in EVs

Copper intensity in passenger battery electric vehicles (BEVs) has steadily decreased over the last decade, driven by numerous technological advancements alongside increasing usage of alternative materials such as aluminum.

In this graphic, we visualize the evolution of copper demand in various subcomponents of passenger battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from 2015 to 2030F, along with total global copper demand driven by EVs for the same period. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

Copper Intensity Per Car

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the copper intensity per vehicle is expected to decline by almost 38 kg, from 99 kg in 2015 to 62 kg by 2030.

YearWiringMotorCopper FoilBusbarAuxiliary MotorCharging CableTotal
201530841.2613.232.873.9699.32
201629838.6813.372.853.9295.82
201728732.6712.722.843.9087.13
201827726.3911.872.823.8878.96
201926728.0010.852.783.8278.45
202025724.7110.242.733.7673.44
202124625.279.292.693.7070.95
202223728.448.562.653.6473.29
202322729.878.122.613.5873.18
2024F21727.737.672.563.5269.48
2025F20727.797.192.522.5167.01
2026F20727.786.632.483.4167.30
2027F19827.556.152.443.3566.49
2028F18826.775.702.403.3064.17
2029F18826.175.512.393.2863.35
2030F17825.635.442.373.2661.70

One of the most significant factors driving this decline is thrifting, where engineers and manufacturers continuously improve the efficiency and performance of various components, leading to reduced copper usage. A key example of this is in battery production, where the thickness of copper foil used in battery anodes has significantly decreased.

In 2015, Benchmark estimated copper foil usage was just over 41 kg per vehicle (at an average thickness of 10 microns), but by 2030, it is projected to fall to 26 kg as manufacturers continue to adopt thinner foils.

Similarly, automotive wiring systems have become more localized, with advances in high-voltage wiring and modular integration allowing for reduced copper content in wiring harnesses.

Copper used in wiring has dropped from 30 kg per vehicle in 2015 to a projected 17 kg by 2030.

Newer, more compact power electronics and improved thermal management in motors and charging cables have also contributed to the reduction in copper usage.

Substitution has also played a role, with alternatives such as aluminum increasingly being used in components like busbars, wiring harnesses, and charging cable applications.

Aluminum’s lighter weight and lower cost have made it a practical alternative to copper in specific applications, though the additional space required to achieve the same level of conductivity can limit its use in certain cases.

Benchmark estimates that copper used in automotive wire harnesses has declined by 30% between 2015 and 2024.

The Road Ahead

Despite reductions in per-vehicle copper usage, the outlook for copper demand from the EV sector remains strong due to the sector’s growth.

YearEV Sector Copper Demand (tonnes)
201556K
201682K
2017111K
2018166K
2019179K
2020237K
2021447K
2022696K
2023902K
2024F1.0M
2025F1.2M
2026F1.5M
2027F1.7M
2028F2.0M
2029F2.2M
2030F2.5M

Benchmark’s analysis indicates that by 2030, copper demand driven by EVs alone will exceed 2.5 million tonnes, securing copper’s critical role in the transition to a low-carbon future.

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