Energy Shift
The Clean Energy Employment Shift, by 2030
The Clean Energy Employment Shift, by 2030
With many countries and companies pledged to reduce emissions, the clean energy transition seems to be an inevitability. And that transition will undoubtedly have an impact on employment.
New sources of power don’t just require new and updated equipment, they also require people to operate them. And as demand for cleaner fuels shifts attention away from fossil fuels, it’s likely that not every sector will see a net gain of employment.
This graphic shows projected global employment growth in the clean energy sector and related areas, under announced climate pledges as of 2021, as tracked by the IEA’s World Energy Outlook.
Which Sectors Will Gain Jobs By 2030?
In total, the clean energy transition is expected to generate 10.3 million net new jobs around the world by 2030.
Though fuel generation will definitely be affected by the clean energy transition, the biggest impact will be felt in modernizing energy infrastructure:
| Clean Energy Jobs By Sector (to 2030) | Jobs Gained | Jobs Lost | Net Job Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | 3.2M | 0 | 3.2M |
| Cars | 2.6M | 0 | 2.6M |
| Power generation | 2.6M | -0.3M | 2.3M |
| Grids | 1.6M | 0 | 1.6M |
| Bioenergy | 1.2M | 0 | 1.2M |
| End-use renewables | 1M | 0 | 1M |
| Innovative technologies | 0.9M | 0 | 0.9M |
| Critical minerals | 0.2M | 0 | 0.2M |
| Coal | 0 | -0.6M | -0.6M |
| Oil and gas | 0 | -2.1M | -2.1M |
| Total | 13.3M | -3.0M | 10.3M |
In order to properly utilize the new sources of energy, the largest expected job gains are in electrical efficiency, power generation, and the automotive sector. Combined with modernizing the grid, they make up 75% of the 13.3 million in new job gains expected.
Comparatively, new energy sources like bioenergy, end-use renewables, and supply chain resources like innovative technologies and critical minerals combine for 3.3 million jobs. That offsets the 2.7 million jobs expected to be lost in fossil fuel sectors, plus an additional 0.3 million lost in power generation.
But it’s important to note that these expected employment changes are under announced climate pledges as of 2021. The IEA has calculated that in a full net-zero clean energy transition, the estimated quantity of jobs gained and lost would more than double across almost all sectors, with a net addition of 22.7 million new jobs.
Regardless of which path is closest to the reality, it’s clear the job landscape in energy and related sectors will be shifting in the coming years, and it will be interesting to see how and when such changes materialize.
Energy Shift
How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?
Copper and lithium will require the highest number of new mines.
How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?
Nearly 300 Mines
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, meeting global battery demand by 2030 would require 293 new mines or plants.
| Mineral | 2024 Supply (t) | 2030 Demand (t) | Supply Needed (t) | No. of Mines/Plants | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium | 1,181,000 | 2,728,000 | 1,547,000 | 52 | Mine |
| Cobalt | 272,000 | 401,000 | 129,000 | 26 | Mine |
| Nickel | 3,566,000 | 4,949,000 | 1,383,000 | 28 | Mine |
| Natural Graphite | 1,225,000 | 2,933,000 | 1,708,000 | 31 | Mine |
| Synthetic Graphite | 1,820,000 | 2,176,000 | 356,000 | 12 | Plant |
| Manganese | 90,000 | 409,000 | 319,000 | 21 | Plant |
| Purified Phosphoric Acid | 6,493,000 | 9,001,000 | 2,508,000 | 33 | Plant |
| Copper | 22,912,000 | 26,576,000 | 3,664,000 | 61 | Mine |
| Rare Earths | 83,711 | 116,663 | 32,952 | 29 | Mine |
Copper, used in wires and other applications, and lithium, essential for batteries, will require the most significant number of new mines.
Manganese production would need to increase more than fourfold to meet anticipated demand.
Not an Easy Task
Building new mines is one of the biggest challenges in reaching the expected demand.
After discovery and exploration, mineral projects must go through a lengthy process of research, permitting, and funding before becoming operational.
In the U.S., for instance, developing a new mine can take 29 years.
In contrast, Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Laos have some of the shortest development times in the world, at roughly 10 to 15 years.
Energy Shift
Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources
Europe depends entirely on China for heavy rare earth elements, critical for technologies such as hybrid cars and fiber optics.
Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources
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Despite efforts by European countries to reduce their reliance on China for critical materials, the region remains heavily dependent on Chinese resources.
This graphic shows the percentage of EU raw material supply sourced from China for 12 raw materials used in various industries. Bloomberg published this data in May 2024 based on European Commission research.
China’s Dominance in Clean Energy Minerals
Europe is 100% dependent on China for heavy rare earth elements used in technologies such as hybrid cars, fiber optics, and nuclear power.
Additionally, 97% of the magnesium consumed in Europe, for uses ranging from aerospace alloys to automotive parts, comes from the Asian country.
| Raw Material | Percentage Supplied by China | Usage |
|---|---|---|
| Heavy rare earth elements | 100% | nuclear reactors, TV screens, fiber optics |
| Magnesium | 97% | Aerospace alloys, automotive parts |
| Light rare earth elements | 85% | Catalysts, aircraft engines, magnets |
| Lithium | 79% | Batteries, pharmaceuticals, ceramics |
| Gallium | 71% | Semiconductors, LEDs, solar panels |
| Scandium | 67% | Aerospace components, power generation, sports equipment |
| Bismuth | 65% | Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, low-melting alloys |
| Vanadium | 62% | Steel alloys, aerospace, tools |
| Baryte | 45% | Oil and gas drilling, paints, plastics |
| Germanium | 45% | Fiber optics, infrared optics, electronics |
| Natural graphite | 40% | Batteries, lubricants, refractory materials |
| Tungsten | 32% | Cutting tools, electronics, heavy metal alloys |
Almost 80% of the lithium in electric vehicles and electronics batteries comes from China.
Assessing the Risks
The EU faces a pressing concern over access to essential materials, given the apprehension that China could “weaponize” its dominance of the sector.
One proposed solution is the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which entered into force in May 2024.
The act envisions a quota of 10% of all critical raw materials consumed in the EU to be produced within the EU.
Additionally, it calls for a significant increase in recycling efforts, totaling up to 25% of annual consumption in the EU. Lastly, it sets the target of reducing dependency for any critical raw material on a single non-EU country to less than 65% by 2030.
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