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The Future of Global Coal Production (2021-2024F)

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future coal production by country

The Future of Global Coal Production Visualized

Coal is the world’s most affordable energy fuel, and as such, the world’s biggest commodity market for electricity generation.

Unfortunately, that low-cost energy comes at a high cost for the environment, with coal being the largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions.

Despite its large footprint, coal was in high demand in 2021. As economies reopened following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries struggled to meet resurgent energy needs. As a readily available low-cost energy source, coal filled the supply gap, with global coal consumption increasing by 450 million tonnes or around +6% in 2021.

This graphic looks at the IEA’s coal production forecasts for 2024, and the specific countries projected to reduce or increase their production over the next few years.

Which Countries Are Increasing (or Reducing) Coal Production?

Global coal production was a topic of scrutiny at the COP26 conference held in November of 2021, where 40 countries pledged to stop issuing permits and direct government support for new coal-fired power plants.

However, many of the top coal-producing countries did not commit to the pledge. China, the U.S., India, Russia, and Australia abstained, and of those five, only the U.S. is forecasted to reduce coal production in the next two years.

CountryCoal Production (2021)Coal Production (2024F)Share (2024F)Change (2021–2024F)
🇨🇳 China3,925 Mt3,982 Mt50%+57 Mt
🇮🇳 India793 Mt955 Mt12%+162 Mt
🇮🇩 Indonesia576 Mt570 Mt7%-6 Mt
🇺🇸 United States528 Mt484 Mt6%-44 Mt
🇦🇺 Australia470 Mt477 Mt6%+7 Mt
🇷🇺 Russia429 Mt 445 Mt5%+16 Mt
🇪🇺 European Union329 Mt247 Mt3%-82 Mt
🌐 Other839 Mt855 Mt11%+16 Mt

Source: IEA

With 15 EU countries signing the pledge, the European Union is forecasted to see the greatest drop in coal production at 82 million tonnes, along with the greatest forecasted reduction in coal consumption (101 million tonnes, a 23% reduction).

Reducing Coal-Fired Power Generation in the U.S.

The U.S. and Indonesia are the other two major producers forecasted to reduce their reliance on coal. The U.S. is projected to cut coal production by 7.5% or 44 million tonnes, while Indonesia’s reduction is forecasted at 6 million tonnes, or just a 1% cut of its 2021 production.

Despite not joining the COP26 pledge, the U.S. is still noticeably pursuing short and long-term initiatives to reduce coal-fired power generation.

In fact, 85% of U.S. electric generating capacity retirements in 2022 are forecast to be coal-fired generators, and there are further plans to retire 28% (59 GW) of currently operational coal-fired capacity by 2035.

Coal Makes Energy Ends Meet in China and India

Modern consumption and production are instead focused in Asia.

China and India produce almost 60% of the world’s coal, and are expected to increase their production by more than 200 million tonnes per year, collectively. All this coal goes towards meeting the insatiable energy demands of both nations.

While China has pledged to start cutting down coal consumption in 2026, the country also announced the construction of 43 new coal-fired power plants to meet energy demand until then. Part of the additional production is driven by a need to reduce the country’s dependence on coal imports, which are expected to drop by 51 million tonnes or 16% from 2021–2024.

By 2024, China’s coal consumption is forecasted to rise by 3.3% and India’s by 12.2%, which would make the two countries responsible for two-thirds of the world’s coal consumption.

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Energy Shift

Visualizing the Decline of Copper Usage in EVs

Copper content in EVs has steadily decreased over the past decade, even as overall copper demand rises due to the increasing adoption of EVs.

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The total copper per vehicle is projected to decrease by 38 kg between 2015 and 2030.

Visualizing the Decline of Copper Usage in EVs

Copper intensity in passenger battery electric vehicles (BEVs) has steadily decreased over the last decade, driven by numerous technological advancements alongside increasing usage of alternative materials such as aluminum.

In this graphic, we visualize the evolution of copper demand in various subcomponents of passenger battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from 2015 to 2030F, along with total global copper demand driven by EVs for the same period. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

Copper Intensity Per Car

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the copper intensity per vehicle is expected to decline by almost 38 kg, from 99 kg in 2015 to 62 kg by 2030.

YearWiringMotorCopper FoilBusbarAuxiliary MotorCharging CableTotal
201530841.2613.232.873.9699.32
201629838.6813.372.853.9295.82
201728732.6712.722.843.9087.13
201827726.3911.872.823.8878.96
201926728.0010.852.783.8278.45
202025724.7110.242.733.7673.44
202124625.279.292.693.7070.95
202223728.448.562.653.6473.29
202322729.878.122.613.5873.18
2024F21727.737.672.563.5269.48
2025F20727.797.192.522.5167.01
2026F20727.786.632.483.4167.30
2027F19827.556.152.443.3566.49
2028F18826.775.702.403.3064.17
2029F18826.175.512.393.2863.35
2030F17825.635.442.373.2661.70

One of the most significant factors driving this decline is thrifting, where engineers and manufacturers continuously improve the efficiency and performance of various components, leading to reduced copper usage. A key example of this is in battery production, where the thickness of copper foil used in battery anodes has significantly decreased.

In 2015, Benchmark estimated copper foil usage was just over 41 kg per vehicle (at an average thickness of 10 microns), but by 2030, it is projected to fall to 26 kg as manufacturers continue to adopt thinner foils.

Similarly, automotive wiring systems have become more localized, with advances in high-voltage wiring and modular integration allowing for reduced copper content in wiring harnesses.

Copper used in wiring has dropped from 30 kg per vehicle in 2015 to a projected 17 kg by 2030.

Newer, more compact power electronics and improved thermal management in motors and charging cables have also contributed to the reduction in copper usage.

Substitution has also played a role, with alternatives such as aluminum increasingly being used in components like busbars, wiring harnesses, and charging cable applications.

Aluminum’s lighter weight and lower cost have made it a practical alternative to copper in specific applications, though the additional space required to achieve the same level of conductivity can limit its use in certain cases.

Benchmark estimates that copper used in automotive wire harnesses has declined by 30% between 2015 and 2024.

The Road Ahead

Despite reductions in per-vehicle copper usage, the outlook for copper demand from the EV sector remains strong due to the sector’s growth.

YearEV Sector Copper Demand (tonnes)
201556K
201682K
2017111K
2018166K
2019179K
2020237K
2021447K
2022696K
2023902K
2024F1.0M
2025F1.2M
2026F1.5M
2027F1.7M
2028F2.0M
2029F2.2M
2030F2.5M

Benchmark’s analysis indicates that by 2030, copper demand driven by EVs alone will exceed 2.5 million tonnes, securing copper’s critical role in the transition to a low-carbon future.

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Energy Shift

Visualizing the Rise in Global Coal Consumption

China remains the largest coal consumer, making up 56% of the global total.

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In this graphic, we show global coal consumption by region from 1965 to 2020.

Visualizing the Rise in Global Coal Consumption

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Despite efforts to decarbonize the economy, global coal consumption surpassed 164 exajoules for the first time in 2023. The fossil fuel still accounts for 26% of the world’s total energy consumption.

In this graphic, we show global coal consumption by region from 1965 to 2023, based on data from the Energy Institute.

China Leads in Coal Consumption

China is by far the largest consumer of coal, accounting for 56% of the global total, with 91.94 exajoules in 2023.

It is followed by India, with 21.98 exajoules, and the U.S., with 8.20 exajoules. In 2023, India exceeded the combined consumption of Europe and North America for the first time.

Regionally, North America and Europe have seen a decline in coal consumption since the 1990s, while the Asia-Pacific region experienced a surge in demand during the same period.

YearAsia Pacific (Exajoules)North AmericaEuropeRest of the WorldTotal World
2013114.1419.4815.8611.47160.95
2014115.7419.3914.8811.68161.62
2015115.0016.8914.2411.11157.25
2016113.2115.5513.7411.35153.85
2017115.6715.3013.2911.23155.50
2018119.0514.5012.9811.34157.87
2019121.9412.4911.0611.45156.95
2020121.919.979.5710.82152.27
2021127.7511.2410.4411.12160.56
2022129.8010.5410.0211.18161.53
2023135.708.838.3911.11164.03

Coal Production on the Rise

In addition to consumption, global coal production also reached its highest-ever level in 2023, at 179 exajoules.

The Asia-Pacific region accounted for nearly 80% of global output, with activity concentrated in Australia, China, India, and Indonesia.

China alone was responsible for just over half of total global production.

Learn More on the Voronoi App 

If you want to learn more about fossil fuel consumption, check out this graphic showing the top 12 countries by fossil fuel consumption in 2023.

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