Electrification
The Road to EV Adoption: Fast Lanes and Potholes
The following content is sponsored by Rock Tech Lithium.
The Road to EV Adoption: Fast Lanes and Potholes
Electric vehicles (EVs) are a key piece of the clean energy puzzle.
However, the road to electrification is influenced by various factors. While some are helping speed up the switch to EVs, others are slowing it down.
The above infographic from Rock Tech Lithium outlines the fast lanes accelerating mainstream EV adoption, and the potholes slowing it down.
The Fast Lanes Accelerating EV Adoption
From government policies to falling battery prices, a number of factors are putting EVs in the fast lane to consumer adoption.
Factor #1:
Promoting Policies
The shift to a clean energy future is slowly moving from a goal to a reality.
Governments around the world have made automobile electrification a key part of public policy. More than 20 countries are targeting a complete phase-out of vehicles that emit greenhouse gases over the next two decades. Furthermore, 35 countries have pledged for net-zero economies by 2050, where EVs will play a key role.
As an example, here’s a recent tweet that U.S. President Joe Biden wrote before signing an executive order to make 50% of the U.S. auto fleet electric by 2030:
“The future of the auto industry is electric—and made in America.”
—President Biden on Twitter
Given the increasing importance of EVs, it’s no surprise that governments are not only promoting auto electrification but also incentivizing it.
Factor #2:
Consumer Awareness
The rapid growth of the EV market is partly due to consumers that are choosing to go electric.
Rising awareness around the risks of climate change as well as vehicle improvements from EV manufacturers is spurring EV adoption among consumers. Between 2015 and 2020, consumer spending on EVs increased by 561%, up from $18 billion to $119 billion.
As more consumers switch to EVs, the market will continue to grow.
Factor #3:
More Models
EV manufacturers are recognizing the need for a wider variety of vehicles to meet the needs of different consumers.
The number of available EV models has increased from 86 in 2015 to over 360 in 2020, and thanks to recent announcements from the auto industry, this trend is likely to extend over the next decade.
Company | # of New EV Models Announced | Year |
---|---|---|
Volkswagen | 75 | 2025 |
Ford | 40 | 2022 |
GM | 30 | 2025 |
Hyundai-Kia1 | 29 | 2025 |
BMW | 25 | 2023 |
Renault-Nissan2 | 20 | 2022 |
Toyota | 15 | 2025 |
Total | 234 | N/A |
1Hyundai is the parent company of Kia Motors.
2Refers to the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance.
Source: IEA
With more models available, consumers have a wider variety of cars to choose from, reducing the barriers to EV adoption.
Factor #4:
Falling Battery Prices
Batteries are the most expensive and important components of EVs.
Improvements in battery technology, in addition to expanding production, have driven down the cost of EV batteries. As battery costs fall, so do EV prices, bringing EVs closer to price-parity with gas-powered cars.
Year | Battery Pack Price ($/kWh) | % Price Drop Since 2010 |
---|---|---|
2010 | $1,191 | 0% |
2011 | $924 | 22% |
2012 | $726 | 39% |
2013 | $668 | 44% |
2014 | $592 | 50% |
2015 | $384 | 68% |
2016 | $295 | 75% |
2017 | $221 | 81% |
2018 | $181 | 85% |
2019 | $157 | 87% |
2020 | $137 | 89% |
Source: BloombergNEF
According to BloombergNEF, at the battery pack price point of $100/kWh, EV prices will become competitive with gas-powered cars, providing a boost to electrification.
All of the above factors are playing a major role in accelerating the EV transition. So what’s slowing it down?
The Potholes Slowing Down EV Adoption
Although the EV market is growing exponentially, it’s still in its early days, with various obstacles to overcome on the way to mainstream penetration.
Pothole #1:
The Supply of Battery Metals
EV batteries rely on the properties of various battery metals to power EVs. In fact, a single EV contains around 207 kg of metals.
As EV adoption grows, the demand for these critical minerals is expected to reach unprecedented highs. In turn, this could result in supply shortages for metals like lithium, cobalt, and graphite, potentially slowing down the growth of the EV market.
To avoid potential shortages, EV manufacturers like Tesla and Volkswagen are vertically integrating to mine their own metals, while governments work to build domestic and independent metal supply chains.
Pothole #2:
Charging Infrastructure
With more EVs on the roads, drivers need more places to plug in and recharge.
However, most countries are lagging behind in the installation of public chargers. The global average ratio of public chargers to EV stock is less than 0.15. This means that on average, there are less than 3 chargers for every 20 EVs.
But there are signs of optimism. Global charging infrastructure has doubled since 2017, and governments are incentivizing charger installations with subsidies and tax rebates.
Pothole #3:
Charging Times
While filling up gas tanks takes less than five minutes, it can take up to eight hours to fully charge an EV battery.
Fast chargers that use direct current can fully charge EVs in a couple of hours, but they’re more expensive to install. However, the majority of publicly available chargers are slow, making it inconvenient for drivers to charge on the go.
As charging technology improves, faster chargers are being developed to boost charge times. According to Bloomberg, new ultra-fast chargers can fully charge EVs in less than 30 minutes. Furthermore, the market share of fast chargers is expected to grow from 15% today to 27% by 2030.
Pothole #4:
Range Anxiety
Compared to gas-powered vehicles, EVs do not go the distance yet.
Limited driving ranges are known to cause “range anxiety”—the fear of running out of power—among EV drivers, presenting a hurdle for mainstream EV adoption. Additionally, the lack of charging infrastructure reinforces the problem of limited ranges.
However, consistent improvements in battery technology are resulting in longer driving ranges. Between 2015 and 2020, the average range for battery EVs increased by 60%. With further technological improvements, extended ranges will allow EVs be compete more aggressively with their gas-guzzling counterparts.
The Decade of the Electric Vehicle
The EV market is growing at a remarkable rate. EV makers sold around three million vehicles in 2020, up 155% from just over one million vehicles sold in 2017.
With several factors driving EV adoption and stakeholders working to overcome the industry’s obstacles, mainstream adoption of EVs is on the horizon.
Electrification
Will Direct Lithium Extraction Disrupt the $90B Lithium Market?
Visual Capitalist and EnergyX explore how direct lithium extraction could disrupt the $90B lithium industry.
Will Direct Lithium Extraction Disrupt the $90B Lithium Market?
Current lithium extraction and refinement methods are outdated, often harmful to the environment, and ultimately inefficient. So much so that by 2030, lithium demand will outstrip supply by a projected 1.42 million metric tons. But there is a solution: Direct lithium extraction (DLE).
For this graphic, we partnered with EnergyX to try to understand how DLE could help meet global lithium demands and change an industry that is critical to the clean energy transition.
The Lithium Problem
Lithium is crucial to many renewable energy technologies because it is this element that allows EV batteries to react. In fact, it’s so important that projections show the lithium industry growing from $22.2B in 2023 to nearly $90B by 2030.
But even with this incredible growth, as you can see from the table, refined lithium production will need to increase 86.5% over and above current projections.
2022 (million metric tons) | 2030P (million metric tons) | |
---|---|---|
Lithium Carbonate Demand | 0.46 | 1.21 |
Lithium Hydroxide Demand | 0.18 | 1.54 |
Lithium Metal Demand | 0 | 0.22 |
Lithium Mineral Demand | 0.07 | 0.09 |
Total Demand | 0.71 | 3.06 |
Total Supply | 0.75 | 1.64 |
The Solution: Direct Lithium Extraction
DLE is a process that uses a combination of solvent extraction, membranes, or adsorbents to extract and then refine lithium directly from its source. LiTASTM, the proprietary DLE technology developed by EnergyX, can recover an incredible 300% more lithium per ton than existing processes, making it the perfect tool to help meet lithium demands.
Additionally, LiTASTM can refine lithium at the lowest cost per unit volume directly from brine, an essential step in meeting tomorrow’s lithium demand and manufacturing next-generation batteries, while significantly reducing the footprint left by lithium mining.
Hard Rock Mining | Underground Reservoirs | Direct Lithium Extraction | |
---|---|---|---|
Direct CO2 Emissions | 15,000 kg | 5,000 kg | 3.5 kg |
Water Use | 170 m3 | 469 m3 | 34-94 m3 |
Lithium Recovery Rate | 58% | 30-40% | 90% |
Land Use | 464 m2 | 3124 m2 | 0.14 m2 |
Process Time | Variable | 18 months | 1-2 days |
Providing the World with Lithium
DLE promises to disrupt the outdated lithium industry by improving lithium recovery rates and slashing emissions, helping the world meet the energy demands of tomorrow’s electric vehicles.
EnergyX is on a mission to become a worldwide leader in the sustainable energy transition using groundbreaking direct lithium extraction technology. Don’t miss your chance to join companies like GM and invest in EnergyX to transform the future of renewable energy.
Electrification
Chart: The $400 Billion Lithium Battery Value Chain
In this graphic, we break down where the $400 billion lithium battery industry will generate revenue in 2030.
Breaking Down the $400 Billion Battery Value Chain
As the world transitions away from fossil fuels toward a greener future, the lithium battery industry could grow fivefold by 2030. This shift could create over $400 billion in annual revenue opportunities globally.
For this graphic, we partnered with EnergyX to determine how the battery industry could grow by 2030.
Exploring the Battery Value Chain
The lithium battery value chain has many links within it that each generate their own revenue opportunities, these include:
- Critical Element Production: Involves the mining and refining of materials used in a battery’s construction.
- Active materials: Creating and developing materials that react electrochemically to allow batteries to charge and discharge.
- Battery cells: Involves the production of rechargeable elements of a battery.
- Battery packs: Producing packs containing a series of connected battery cells. Generally, these come in two types: NMC/NMCA, the standard in North America and Europe, and LFP, the standard in China.
- Recycling: Reusing battery components within new batteries.
But these links aren’t equal, each one is projected to generate different levels of revenue by 2030:
China 🇨🇳 | Europe 🇪🇺 | United States 🇺🇸 | Rest of World 🌍 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $184B | $118B | $62B | $39B |
Critical Element Production | $37B | $25B | $15B | $8B |
Active Materials | $54B | $31B | $14B | $11B |
Battery Packs | $34B | $22B | $11B | $7B |
Battery Cells | $53B | $37B | $20B | $11B |
Recycling | $6B | $3B | $2B | $2B |
On the surface, battery cell production may contribute the most revenue to the battery value chain. However, lithium production can generate margins as high as 65%, meaning lithium production has potential to yield large margins.
How Much Lithium Is Available?
Just a few countries hold 81% of the world’s viable lithium. So, supply bottlenecks could slow the growth of the lithium battery industry:
Nation | Viable Lithium Reserves (2023) |
---|---|
Chile 🇨🇱 | 9.3M t |
Australia 🇦🇺 | 6.2M t |
Argentina 🇦🇷 | 2.7M t |
China 🇨🇳 | 2M t |
U.S. 🇺🇸 | 1M t |
Rest of World 🌍 | 4.9M t |
Supplying the World With Batteries
Supplying the world with lithium is critical to the battery value chain and a successful transition from fossil fuels. Players like the U.S. and the EU, with increasingly large and growing lithium needs, will need to maximize local opportunities and work together to meet demand.
EnergyX is on a mission to become a world leader in the global transition to sustainable energy, using cutting-edge direct lithium extraction to help supply the world with lithium.
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