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The Road to EV Adoption: Fast Lanes and Potholes

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The following content is sponsored by Rock Tech Lithium.

EV adoption

The Road to EV Adoption: Fast Lanes and Potholes

Electric vehicles (EVs) are a key piece of the clean energy puzzle.

However, the road to electrification is influenced by various factors. While some are helping speed up the switch to EVs, others are slowing it down.

The above infographic from Rock Tech Lithium outlines the fast lanes accelerating mainstream EV adoption, and the potholes slowing it down.

The Fast Lanes Accelerating EV Adoption

From government policies to falling battery prices, a number of factors are putting EVs in the fast lane to consumer adoption.

Factor #1:

Promoting Policies

The shift to a clean energy future is slowly moving from a goal to a reality.

Governments around the world have made automobile electrification a key part of public policy. More than 20 countries are targeting a complete phase-out of vehicles that emit greenhouse gases over the next two decades. Furthermore, 35 countries have pledged for net-zero economies by 2050, where EVs will play a key role.

As an example, here’s a recent tweet that U.S. President Joe Biden wrote before signing an executive order to make 50% of the U.S. auto fleet electric by 2030:

“The future of the auto industry is electric—and made in America.”

—President Biden on Twitter

Given the increasing importance of EVs, it’s no surprise that governments are not only promoting auto electrification but also incentivizing it.

Factor #2:

Consumer Awareness

The rapid growth of the EV market is partly due to consumers that are choosing to go electric.

Rising awareness around the risks of climate change as well as vehicle improvements from EV manufacturers is spurring EV adoption among consumers. Between 2015 and 2020, consumer spending on EVs increased by 561%, up from $18 billion to $119 billion.

As more consumers switch to EVs, the market will continue to grow.

Factor #3:

More Models

EV manufacturers are recognizing the need for a wider variety of vehicles to meet the needs of different consumers.

The number of available EV models has increased from 86 in 2015 to over 360 in 2020, and thanks to recent announcements from the auto industry, this trend is likely to extend over the next decade.

Company# of New EV Models AnnouncedYear
Volkswagen752025
Ford402022
GM302025
Hyundai-Kia1292025
BMW252023
Renault-Nissan2202022
Toyota152025
Total234N/A

1Hyundai is the parent company of Kia Motors.
2Refers to the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance.
Source: IEA

With more models available, consumers have a wider variety of cars to choose from, reducing the barriers to EV adoption.

Factor #4:

Falling Battery Prices

Batteries are the most expensive and important components of EVs.

Improvements in battery technology, in addition to expanding production, have driven down the cost of EV batteries. As battery costs fall, so do EV prices, bringing EVs closer to price-parity with gas-powered cars.

YearBattery Pack Price ($/kWh)% Price Drop Since 2010
2010$1,1910%
2011$92422%
2012$72639%
2013$66844%
2014$59250%
2015$38468%
2016$29575%
2017$22181%
2018$18185%
2019$15787%
2020$13789%

Source: BloombergNEF

According to BloombergNEF, at the battery pack price point of $100/kWh, EV prices will become competitive with gas-powered cars, providing a boost to electrification.

All of the above factors are playing a major role in accelerating the EV transition. So what’s slowing it down?

The Potholes Slowing Down EV Adoption

Although the EV market is growing exponentially, it’s still in its early days, with various obstacles to overcome on the way to mainstream penetration.

Pothole #1:

The Supply of Battery Metals

EV batteries rely on the properties of various battery metals to power EVs. In fact, a single EV contains around 207 kg of metals.

As EV adoption grows, the demand for these critical minerals is expected to reach unprecedented highs. In turn, this could result in supply shortages for metals like lithium, cobalt, and graphite, potentially slowing down the growth of the EV market.

To avoid potential shortages, EV manufacturers like Tesla and Volkswagen are vertically integrating to mine their own metals, while governments work to build domestic and independent metal supply chains.

Pothole #2:

Charging Infrastructure

With more EVs on the roads, drivers need more places to plug in and recharge.

However, most countries are lagging behind in the installation of public chargers. The global average ratio of public chargers to EV stock is less than 0.15. This means that on average, there are less than 3 chargers for every 20 EVs.

But there are signs of optimism. Global charging infrastructure has doubled since 2017, and governments are incentivizing charger installations with subsidies and tax rebates.

Pothole #3:

Charging Times

While filling up gas tanks takes less than five minutes, it can take up to eight hours to fully charge an EV battery.

Fast chargers that use direct current can fully charge EVs in a couple of hours, but they’re more expensive to install. However, the majority of publicly available chargers are slow, making it inconvenient for drivers to charge on the go.

As charging technology improves, faster chargers are being developed to boost charge times. According to Bloomberg, new ultra-fast chargers can fully charge EVs in less than 30 minutes. Furthermore, the market share of fast chargers is expected to grow from 15% today to 27% by 2030.

Pothole #4:

Range Anxiety

Compared to gas-powered vehicles, EVs do not go the distance yet.

Limited driving ranges are known to cause “range anxiety”—the fear of running out of power—among EV drivers, presenting a hurdle for mainstream EV adoption. Additionally, the lack of charging infrastructure reinforces the problem of limited ranges.

However, consistent improvements in battery technology are resulting in longer driving ranges. Between 2015 and 2020, the average range for battery EVs increased by 60%. With further technological improvements, extended ranges will allow EVs be compete more aggressively with their gas-guzzling counterparts.

The Decade of the Electric Vehicle

The EV market is growing at a remarkable rate. EV makers sold around three million vehicles in 2020, up 155% from just over one million vehicles sold in 2017.

With several factors driving EV adoption and stakeholders working to overcome the industry’s obstacles, mainstream adoption of EVs is on the horizon.

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Electrification

Visualizing the Natural Graphite Supply Problem

In 2020, China produced 59% of natural graphite and over 80% of battery anode material. Here’s a look at the graphite supply problem.

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natural graphite

Visualizing the Natural Graphite Supply Problem

Graphite is a critical mineral for lithium-ion batteries, and its battery demand is expected to grow ten-fold by 2030.

Meeting this increasing demand will require a higher supply of both natural graphite and its synthetic counterpart. However, graphite’s entire supply chain is heavily reliant on China, which makes it vulnerable to disruptions while creating environmental challenges.

This infographic from our sponsor Northern Graphite highlights China’s stronghold over the graphite supply chain and outlines the need for new natural graphite mines.

China’s Dominance in the Graphite Supply Chain

From mining natural graphite to manufacturing battery anodes, China dominates every stage of the graphite supply chain.

For example, in 2020, 59% of global natural graphite production came from China. Mozambique, the second-largest producer, churned out 120,000 tonnes—just one-fifth of Chinese production.

Country2020E production, tonnes% of total
China 🇨🇳650,00059.1%
Mozambique 🇲🇿120,00010.9%
Brazil 🇧🇷95,0008.6%
Madagascar 🇲🇬47,0004.3%
India 🇮🇳34,0003.1%
Russia 🇷🇺24,0002.2%
Ukraine 🇺🇦19,0001.7%
Norway 🇳🇴15,0001.4%
Pakistan 🇵🇰13,0001.2%
Canada 🇨🇦10,0000.9%
Rest of the World 🌎73,0006.6%
Total1,100,000100%

China’s massive output makes the other top nine countries look substantially smaller in terms of natural graphite production. Moreover, China also dominates the manufacturing of synthetic graphite and the conversion of graphite into anode material for batteries.

In 2018, China produced nearly 80% of all synthetic graphite, and in 2019, it was responsible for 86% of all battery anode material production. This dependence on graphite supply from China puts the supply chain at risk of political disruptions and makes it unsustainable for the long term.

Unsustainable Production: Natural Graphite vs Synthetic Graphite

The carbon footprint of manufacturing partly depends on the source of energy used in production.

Coal dominates China’s energy mix with a 58% share, followed by petroleum and other liquids. This increases the carbon footprint of all production and especially that of synthetic graphite, which involves energy-intensive heat treatment of petroleum coke.

Energy sourceType% of China's energy consumption (2019)
Coal Fossil fuel58%
Petroleum and other liquidsFossil fuel20%
Hydro Renewable8%
Natural gasFossil fuel8%
Other renewablesRenewable5%
NuclearNon-renewable2%
TotalN/A100%

Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.

One study found that producing one kg of synthetic graphite releases 4.9kg of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, in addition to smaller amounts of sulfur oxide, nitrogen oxide, and particulate matter. While the carbon footprint of natural graphite is substantially smaller, it’s likely that China’s dependence on coal contributes to emissions from production.

Furthermore, concentrated production in China means that all this graphite travels long distances before reaching Western markets like the United States. These extensive shipping distances further exacerbate the risk of disruptions in the graphite supply chain.

The Need for New Sources

As the demand for graphite increases, developing a resilient graphite supply chain is crucial to the European Union and the U.S., both of which have declared graphite a critical mineral.

New graphite mines outside China will be key to meeting graphite’s rising demand and combating a potential supply deficit.

Northern Graphite is positioned to deliver natural graphite in a secure, sustainable, and transparent manner for the green economy.

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Electrification

Mapped: Solar Power by Country in 2021

In 2020, solar power saw its largest-ever annual capacity expansion at 127 gigawatts. Here’s a snapshot of solar power capacity by country.

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Solar Power by Country

Mapped: Solar Power by Country in 2021

The world is adopting renewable energy at an unprecedented pace, and solar power is leading the way.

Despite a 4.5% fall in global energy demand in 2020, renewable energy technologies showed promising progress. While the growth in renewables was strong across the board, solar power led from the front with 127 gigawatts installed in 2020, its largest-ever annual capacity expansion.

The above infographic uses data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) to map solar power capacity by country in 2021. This includes both solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power capacity.

The Solar Power Leaderboard

From the Americas to Oceania, countries in virtually every continent (except Antarctica) added more solar to their mix last year. Here’s a snapshot of solar power capacity by country at the beginning of 2021:

CountryInstalled capacity, megawattsWatts* per capita% of world total
China 🇨🇳 254,35514735.6%
U.S. 🇺🇸 75,57223110.6%
Japan 🇯🇵 67,0004989.4%
Germany 🇩🇪 53,7835937.5%
India 🇮🇳 39,211325.5%
Italy 🇮🇹 21,6003453.0%
Australia 🇦🇺 17,6276372.5%
Vietnam 🇻🇳 16,504602.3%
South Korea 🇰🇷 14,5752172.0%
Spain 🇪🇸 14,0891862.0%
United Kingdom 🇬🇧 13,5632001.9%
France 🇫🇷 11,7331481.6%
Netherlands 🇳🇱 10,2133961.4%
Brazil 🇧🇷 7,881221.1%
Turkey 🇹🇷 6,668730.9%
South Africa 🇿🇦 5,990440.8%
Taiwan 🇹🇼 5,8171720.8%
Belgium 🇧🇪 5,6463940.8%
Mexico 🇲🇽 5,644350.8%
Ukraine 🇺🇦 5,3601140.8%
Poland 🇵🇱 3,936340.6%
Canada 🇨🇦 3,325880.5%
Greece 🇬🇷 3,2472580.5%
Chile 🇨🇱 3,2051420.4%
Switzerland 🇨🇭 3,1182950.4%
Thailand 🇹🇭 2,988430.4%
United Arab Emirates 🇦🇪 2,5391850.4%
Austria 🇦🇹 2,2201780.3%
Czech Republic 🇨🇿 2,0731940.3%
Hungary 🇭🇺 1,9531310.3%
Egypt 🇪🇬 1,694170.2%
Malaysia 🇲🇾 1,493280.2%
Israel 🇮🇱 1,4391340.2%
Russia 🇷🇺 1,42870.2%
Sweden 🇸🇪 1,417630.2%
Romania 🇷🇴 1,387710.2%
Jordan 🇯🇴 1,3591000.2%
Denmark 🇩🇰 1,3001860.2%
Bulgaria 🇧🇬 1,0731520.2%
Philippines 🇵🇭 1,04890.1%
Portugal 🇵🇹 1,025810.1%
Argentina 🇦🇷 764170.1%
Pakistan 🇵🇰 73760.1%
Morocco 🇲🇦 73460.1%
Slovakia 🇸🇰 593870.1%
Honduras 🇭🇳 514530.1%
Algeria 🇩🇿 448100.1%
El Salvador 🇸🇻 429660.1%
Iran 🇮🇷 41450.1%
Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 409120.1%
Finland 🇫🇮 391390.1%
Dominican Republic 🇩🇴 370340.1%
Peru 🇵🇪 331100.05%
Singapore 🇸🇬 329450.05%
Bangladesh 🇧🇩 30120.04%
Slovenia 🇸🇮 2671280.04%
Uruguay 🇺🇾 256740.04%
Yemen 🇾🇪 25380.04%
Iraq 🇮🇶 21650.03%
Cambodia 🇰🇭 208120.03%
Cyprus 🇨🇾 2001470.03%
Panama 🇵🇦 198460.03%
Luxembourg 🇱🇺 1952440.03%
Malta 🇲🇹 1843120.03%
Indonesia 🇮🇩 17210.02%
Cuba 🇨🇺 163140.02%
Belarus 🇧🇾 159170.02%
Senegal 🇸🇳 15580.02%
Norway 🇳🇴 152170.02%
Lithuania 🇱🇹 148370.02%
Namibia 🇳🇦 145550.02%
New Zealand 🇳🇿 142290.02%
Estonia 🇪🇪 130980.02%
Bolivia 🇧🇴 120100.02%
Oman 🇴🇲 109210.02%
Colombia 🇨🇴 10720.01%
Kenya 🇰🇪 10620.01%
Guatemala 🇬🇹10160.01%
Croatia 🇭🇷 85170.01%
World total 🌎 713,97083100.0%

*1 megawatt = 1,000,000 watts.

China is the undisputed leader in solar installations, with over 35% of global capacity. What’s more, the country is showing no signs of slowing down. It has the world’s largest wind and solar project in the pipeline, which could add another 400,000MW to its clean energy capacity.

Following China from afar is the U.S., which recently surpassed 100,000MW of solar power capacity after installing another 50,000MW in the first three months of 2021. Annual solar growth in the U.S. has averaged an impressive 42% over the last decade. Policies like the solar investment tax credit, which offers a 26% tax credit on residential and commercial solar systems, have helped propel the industry forward.

Although Australia hosts a fraction of China’s solar capacity, it tops the per capita rankings due to its relatively low population of 26 million people. The Australian continent receives the highest amount of solar radiation of any continent, and over 30% of Australian households now have rooftop solar PV systems.

China: The Solar Champion

In 2020, President Xi Jinping stated that China aims to be carbon neutral by 2060, and the country is taking steps to get there.

China is a leader in the solar industry, and it seems to have cracked the code for the entire solar supply chain. In 2019, Chinese firms produced 66% of the world’s polysilicon, the initial building block of silicon-based photovoltaic (PV) panels. Furthermore, more than three-quarters of solar cells came from China, along with 72% of the world’s PV panels.

With that said, it’s no surprise that 5 of the world’s 10 largest solar parks are in China, and it will likely continue to build more as it transitions to carbon neutrality.

What’s Driving the Rush for Solar Power?

The energy transition is a major factor in the rise of renewables, but solar’s growth is partly due to how cheap it has become over time. Solar energy costs have fallen exponentially over the last decade, and it’s now the cheapest source of new energy generation.

Since 2010, the cost of solar power has seen a 85% decrease, down from $0.28 to $0.04 per kWh. According to MIT researchers, economies of scale have been the single-largest factor in continuing the cost decline for the last decade. In other words, as the world installed and made more solar panels, production became cheaper and more efficient.

This year, solar costs are rising due to supply chain issues, but the rise is likely to be temporary as bottlenecks resolve.

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