Electrification
How Much Land is Needed to Power the U.S. with Solar?
How Much Land is Needed to Power the U.S. with Solar?
The Biden administration has set a goal of reaching 100% clean electricity throughout the U.S. by 2035, and solar power is a key for this American energy transition.
In the last decade alone, solar has experienced an average annual growth rate of 42% in the U.S. thanks to federal tax credits, declining costs, and increasing demand. It is projected that more than one in seven American homes will have a solar power system by 2030.
To put this trend into perspective, this graphic uses data from the United States Department of Energy to see how much land would be needed to power the entire country with solar panels.
Solar Panels Across the Ocean State
The U.S. has 102.9 gigawatts of total solar installed capacity which is equivalent to 965 square miles, roughly the size of the country’s smallest state, Rhode Island. This current solar capacity generates enough electricity to power 18.6 million American homes, which is nearly 13% of the nation’s households.
According to a report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, roughly 22,000 square miles of solar panel-filled land (about the size of Lake Michigan) would be required to power the entire country, including all 141 million households and businesses, based on 13-14% efficiency for solar modules.
Many solar panels, however, reach 20% efficiency, which could reduce the necessary area to just about 10,000 square miles, equivalent to the size of Lake Erie.
Solar Installations Spreading Across the States
Today, solar represents only 3% of the total U.S. electrical generation.
While California has traditionally dominated the market, other states like Florida and Texas are expanding rapidly, boosted by the residential market.
Large companies with clean energy goals such as Walmart, Apple, Target and Amazon have also helped push solar adoption to near-record levels in 2021.
Despite having a high installation cost, the technology tends to bring savings in the long term. An average-sized residential system has dropped from a price of $40,000 in 2010 to roughly $20,000 in 2020. Along with this, solar panels can save between $10,000-$30,000 over a 30-year lifetime.
Between land and rooftops, the United States has more than enough space to build all the solar panels necessary to power the country. Until then, the future of clean electricity will also depend on hydro, nuclear, geothermal, and wind energy.
Electrification
Charted: Lithium-Ion Batteries Keep Getting Cheaper
Cell prices have fallen 73% since 2014.
Lithium-Ion Batteries Keep Getting Cheaper
Battery metal prices have struggled as a surge in new production overwhelmed demand, coinciding with a slowdown in electric vehicle adoption.
Lithium prices, for example, have plummeted nearly 90% since the late 2022 peak, leading to mine closures and impacting the price of lithium-ion batteries used in EVs.
This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner Benchmark Mineral Intelligence to show the evolution of lithium-ion battery prices over the last 10 years.
More than Half of the Battery Price Comes from the Cathode
Lithium-ion batteries operate by collecting current and directing it into the battery during the charging process. Typically, a graphite anode attracts lithium ions and retains them as a charge.
During discharge, the cathode draws the stored lithium ions and channels them to another current collector. The circuit functions effectively because the anode and cathode do not come into direct contact and are suspended in a medium that facilitates the easy flow of ions.
Currently, 54% of the cell price comes from the cathode, 18% from the anode, and 28% from other components.
Declining Prices
The average price of lithium-ion battery cells dropped from $290 per kilowatt-hour in 2014 to $103 in 2023.
| Year | Global Avg. Cell Price ($ per kilowatt-hour) |
|---|---|
| 2014 | 290 |
| 2015 | 230 |
| 2016 | 180 |
| 2017 | 140 |
| 2018 | 128 |
| 2019 | 120 |
| 2020 | 110 |
| 2021 | 99 |
| 2022 | 129 |
| 2023 | 103 |
| 2024 (ytd) | 78 |
In the coming months, prices are expected to drop further due to oversupply from China.
Despite declining prices, battery demand is projected to increase ninefold by 2040, with the battery industry’s total capital expenditure expected to nearly triple, rising from $567 billion in 2030 to $1.6 trillion in 2040.
| Lithium ion Battery Market Size | Global Capacity (Gigawatt hour) |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 163 |
| 2017 | 219 |
| 2018 | 353 |
| 2019 | 496 |
| 2020 | 710 |
| 2021 | 1026 |
| 2022 | 1652 |
| 2023 | 2555 |
| 2024F | 3476 |
Learn More About Batteries From Visual Capitalist
If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out this graphic that ranks the top lithium-ion battery producing countries by their forecasted capacity in 2030.
Electrification
Ranked: The Top Lithium-Ion Battery Producing Countries by 2030
Chinese companies are expected to hold nearly 70% of global battery capacity by decade’s end.
Top Lithium-Ion Battery Producers by 2030
Lithium-ion batteries are essential for a clean economy due to their high energy density and efficiency. They power most portable consumer electronics, such as cell phones and laptops, and are used in the majority of today’s electric vehicles.
This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to rank the top lithium-ion battery producing countries by their forecasted capacity (measured in gigawatt-hours or GWh) in 2030.
China to Keep Dominance
Chinese companies are expected to account for nearly 70% of global battery capacity by 2030, delivering over 6,200 gigawatt-hours. Chinese giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) alone is forecasted to produce more than the combined output from Canada, France, Hungary, Germany, and the UK.
| Country | 2030F capacity (GWh) | Top producers |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | 6,268.3 | CATL, BYD, CALB |
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | 1,260.6 | Tesla, LGES, SK On |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 261.8 | Tesla, Northvolt, VW |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | 210.1 | CATL, SK On, Samsung |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 203.8 | Northvolt, LGES, VW |
| 🇫🇷 France | 162.0 | Verkor, Prologium, ACC |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 94.5 | LGES, Samsung, SK On |
| 🇬🇧 UK | 66.9 | Envision, Tata |
Currently, China is home to six of the world’s 10 biggest battery makers. China’s battery dominance is driven by its vertical integration across the entire EV supply chain, from mining metals to producing EVs.
By 2030, the U.S. is expected to be second in battery capacity after China, with 1,261 gigawatt-hours, led by LG Energy Solution and Tesla.
In Europe, Germany is forecasted to lead in lithium-ion battery production, with 262 gigawatt-hours, most of it coming from Tesla. The company currently operates its Giga Berlin plant in the country, Tesla’s first manufacturing location in Europe.
Learn More About Batteries From Visual Capitalist
If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out Charted: Investment Needed to Meet Battery Demand by 2040. This visualization shows the total capital expenditure (capex) requirements to build capacity to meet future battery demand by 2030 and 2040.
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