Electrification
Visualizing the Freefall in Electric Vehicle Battery Prices
Electric Vehicle Prices Fall as EV Battery Tech Improves
Electric vehicles (EVs) only accounted for around 3.2% of global car sales in 2020—a figure that’s set to grow in the coming decade, largely due to falling EV battery costs.
With rising production and technological improvements, batteries are becoming cheaper to produce, making EVs increasingly competitive with gas-powered cars.
Wright’s Law is Right So Far
According to Wright’s Law, also known as the learning curve effect, lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery cell costs fall by 28% for every cumulative doubling of units produced.
Wright’s Law has accurately predicted the decline in battery costs and so far, reported battery prices have been in line with modeled forecasts. The battery pack is the most expensive part of an electric vehicle. Consequently, the sticker prices of EVs fall with declining battery costs.
By 2023, the cost of Li-ion batteries is expected to fall to around $100/kWh—the price point at which EVs are as cheap to make as gas-powered cars.
Year | Price of Toyota Camry ⛽️ | Price of a 350-mile Range EV 🔋 |
---|---|---|
2019 | $24,000 | $50,000 |
2021 | $25,000 | $39,000 |
2023 | $26,000 | $26,000 |
2025 | $26,000 | $18,000 |
Figures represent the Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price (MSRP)
EVs are already cheaper to own and operate than comparable gas-powered cars due to savings from gas, maintenance, and resale value. Therefore, a reduction in retail electric vehicle prices may enable them to compete more directly with gas-powered cars.
According to ARK Invest, the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) of a 350-mile range EV will be on par with that of a like-for-like Toyota Camry in 2023. Furthermore, the price of a 350-mile range EV is projected to drop by 53% between 2021-2025—making it $8,000 cheaper than the Camry.
The Electric Catch Up
Electric vehicles are a key piece of the puzzle in the transition to clean energy. Hence, growing consumer awareness around climate change is a catalyst for the EV space.
However, as EV production increases, so does the need for various critical minerals, charging infrastructure, and more. Price is just one of the hurdles that EV manufacturers need to overcome on the road to mainstream EV adoption.
Electrification
Ranked: The Top 10 EV Battery Manufacturers in 2023
Asia dominates this ranking of the world’s largest EV battery manufacturers in 2023.
The Top 10 EV Battery Manufacturers in 2023
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Despite efforts from the U.S. and EU to secure local domestic supply, all major EV battery manufacturers remain based in Asia.
In this graphic we rank the top 10 EV battery manufacturers by total battery deployment (measured in megawatt-hours) in 2023. The data is from EV Volumes.
Chinese Dominance
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) has swiftly risen in less than a decade to claim the title of the largest global battery group.
The Chinese company now has a 34% share of the market and supplies batteries to a range of made-in-China vehicles, including the Tesla Model Y, SAIC’s MG4/Mulan, and Li Auto models.
Company | Country | 2023 Production (megawatt-hour) | Share of Total Production |
---|---|---|---|
CATL | 🇨🇳China | 242,700 | 34% |
BYD | 🇨🇳China | 115,917 | 16% |
LG Energy Solution | 🇰🇷Korea | 108,487 | 15% |
Panasonic | 🇯🇵Japan | 56,560 | 8% |
SK On | 🇰🇷Korea | 40,711 | 6% |
Samsung SDI | 🇰🇷Korea | 35,703 | 5% |
CALB | 🇨🇳China | 23,493 | 3% |
Farasis Energy | 🇨🇳China | 16,527 | 2% |
Envision AESC | 🇨🇳China | 8,342 | 1% |
Sunwoda | 🇨🇳China | 6,979 | 1% |
Other | - | 56,040 | 8% |
In 2023, BYD surpassed LG Energy Solution to claim second place. This was driven by demand from its own models and growth in third-party deals, including providing batteries for the made-in-Germany Tesla Model Y, Toyota bZ3, Changan UNI-V, Venucia V-Online, as well as several Haval and FAW models.
The top three battery makers (CATL, BYD, LG) collectively account for two-thirds (66%) of total battery deployment.
Once a leader in the EV battery business, Panasonic now holds the fourth position with an 8% market share, down from 9% last year. With its main client, Tesla, now effectively sourcing batteries from multiple suppliers, the Japanese battery maker seems to be losing its competitive edge in the industry.
Overall, the global EV battery market size is projected to grow from $49 billion in 2022 to $98 billion by 2029, according to Fortune Business Insights.
Electrification
White Gold: Mapping U.S. Lithium Mines
In this graphic, Visual Capitalist partnerered with EnergyX to explore the size and location of U.S. lithium mines.
White Gold: Mapping U.S. Lithium Mines
The U.S. doubled imports of lithium-ion batteries for the third consecutive year in 2022, and with EV demand growing yearly, U.S. lithium mines must ramp up production or rely on other nations for their supply of refined lithium.
To determine if the domestic U.S. lithium opportunity can meet demand, we partnered with EnergyX to determine how much lithium sits within U.S. borders.
U.S. Lithium Projects
The most crucial measure of a lithium mine’s potential is the quantity that can be extracted from the source.
For each lithium resource, the potential volume of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) was calculated with a ratio of one metric ton of lithium producing 5.32 metric tons of LCE. Cumulatively, existing U.S. lithium projects contain 94.8 million metric tons of LCE.
Rank | Project Name | LCE, million metric tons (est.) |
---|---|---|
1 | McDermitt Caldera | 21.5 |
2 | Thacker Pass | 19.1 |
3 | Tonopah Flats | 18.0 |
4 | TLC Lithium | 10.7 |
5 | Clayton Valley (Century Lithium) | 6.3 |
6 | Zeus Lithium | 6.3 |
7 | Rhyolite Ridge | 3.4 |
8 | Arkansas Smackover (Phase 1A) | 2.8 |
9 | Basin Project | 2.2 |
10 | McGee Deposit | 2.1 |
11 | Arkansas Smackover (South West) | 1.8 |
12 | Clayton Valley (Lithium-X, Pure Energy) | 0.8 |
13 | Big Sandy | 0.3 |
14 | Imperial Valley/Salton Sea | 0.3 |
U.S. Lithium Opportunities, By State
U.S. lithium projects mainly exist in western states, with comparatively minor opportunities in central or eastern states.
State | LCE, million metric tons (est.) |
---|---|
Nevada | 88.2 |
Arkansas | 4.6 |
Arizona | 2.5 |
California | 0.3 |
Currently, the U.S. is sitting on a wealth of lithium that it is underutilizing. For context, in 2022, the U.S. only produced about 5,000 metric tons of LCE and imported a projected 19,000 metric tons of LCE, showing that the demand for the mineral is healthy.
The Next Gold Rush?
U.S. lithium companies have the opportunity to become global leaders in lithium production and accelerate the transition to sustainable energy sources. This is particularly important as the demand for lithium is increasing every year.
EnergyX is on a mission to meet U.S. lithium demands using groundbreaking technology that can extract 300% more lithium from a source than traditional methods.
You can take advantage of this opportunity by investing in EnergyX and joining other significant players like GM in becoming a shareholder.
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