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What is a Commodity Super Cycle?

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What is a Commodity Super Cycle?

Visualizing the Commodity Super Cycle

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the world has seen its population and the need for natural resources boom.

As more people and wealth translate into the demand for global goods, the prices of commodities—such as energy, agriculture, livestock, and metals—have often followed in sync.

This cycle, which tends to coincide with extended periods of industrialization and modernization, helps in telling a story of human development.

Why are Commodity Prices Cyclical?

Commodity prices go through extended periods during which prices are well above or below their long-term price trend. There are two types of swings in commodity prices: upswings and downswings.

Many economists believe that the upswing phase in super cycles results from a lag between unexpected, persistent, and positive trends to support commodity demand with slow-moving supply, such as the building of a new mine or planting a new crop. Eventually, as adequate supply becomes available and demand growth slows, the cycle enters a downswing phase.

While individual commodity groups have their own price patterns, when charted together they form extended periods of price trends known as “Commodity Super Cycles” where there is a recognizable pattern across major commodity groups.

How can a Commodity Super Cycle be Identified?

Commodity super cycles are different from immediate supply disruptions; high or low prices persist over time.

In our above chart, we used data from the Bank of Canada, who leveraged a statistical technique called an asymmetric band pass filter. This is a calculation that can identify the patterns or frequencies of events in sets of data.

Economists at the Bank of Canada employed this technique using their Commodity Price Index (BCPI) to search for evidence of super cycles. This is an index of the spot or transaction prices in U.S. dollars of 26 commodities produced in Canada and sold to world markets.

  • Energy: Coal, Oil, Natural Gas
  • Metals and Minerals: Gold, Silver, Nickel, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Potash, Lead, Iron
  • Forestry: Pulp, Lumber, Newsprint
  • Agriculture: Potatoes, Cattle, Hogs, Wheat, Barley, Canola, Corn
  • Fisheries: Finfish, Shellfish

Using the band pass filter and the BCPI data, the chart indicates that there are four distinct commodity price super cycles since 1899.

  • 1899-1932:
    The first cycle coincides with the industrialization of the United States in the late 19th century.
  • 1933-1961:
    The second began with the onset of global rearmament before the Second World War in the 1930s.
  • 1962-1995:
    The third began with the reindustrialization of Europe and Japan in the late 1950s and early 1960s.
  • 1996 – Present:
    The fourth began in the mid to late 1990s with the rapid industrialization of China

What Causes Commodity Cycles?

The rapid industrialization and growth of a nation or region are the main drivers of these commodity super cycles.

From the rapid industrialization of America emerging as a world power at the beginning of the 20th century, to the ascent of China at the beginning of the 21st century, these historical periods of growth and industrialization drive new demand for commodities.

Because there is often a lag in supply coming online, prices have nowhere to go but above long-term trend lines. Then, prices cannot subside until supply is overshot, or growth slows down.

Is This the Beginning of a New Super Cycle?

The evidence suggests that human industrialization drives commodity prices into cycles. However, past growth was asymmetric around the world with different countries taking the lion’s share of commodities at different times.

With more and more parts of the world experiencing growth simultaneously, demand for commodities is not isolated to a few nations.

Confined to Earth, we could possibly be entering an era where commodities could perpetually be scarce and valuable, breaking the cycles and giving power to nations with the greatest access to resources.

Each commodity has its own story, but together, they show the arc of human development.

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Visualizing the Genealogy of Exploration Success

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Mineral Exploration Success

Visualizing the Genealogy of Exploration Success

In the last decade, 63% of all mineral discoveries in the Western world were made by junior explorers. These small companies are the vision of a dedicated few.

It is the people that make a great company, and it is great explorers that make great discoveries. This infographic sponsored by SKRR Exploration shows the incredible experience and knowledge of two leaders in mineral exploration brought together in one new venture.

Two Paths to Exploration Success

According to the common adage, overnight success stories take a long time. Ron Neolitzky and Ross McElroy have traveled two different paths but along their route, they have uncovered vast amounts of mineral wealth in Canada.

Ronald Netolitzky Ross McElroy
  • 1964-67: Graduated from the University of Alberta with a B.Sc and M.Sc. in Geology.
  • 1985: Became President of Delaware Resources and acquired the Snip property.
  • 1986: Struck a gold discovery at the Snip property, which produced 1Moz of gold over its lifetime.
  • 1988: Invested in Consolidated Stikine Resources and drill-tested Eskay Creek, which would go on to produce 3.3Moz of gold and 160Moz of silver over its lifetime.
  • 1990: Sold Eskay Creek stake to International Corona for $67/share as part of an acquisition.
  • 1990: Received the Bill Dennis Prospector of the Year Award.
  • 1993: Purchased 100% of the Brewery Creek property as president of Loki Gold.
  • 1996: Transformed Brewery Creek into a heap-leach operation.
  • 1996: Merged Loki Gold with Baja Gold and Viceroy Gold to create an entity with an annual production of 200Koz of gold.
  • 1996: Received AME’s E.A. Scholz Award for discovery and development achievements.
  • 2003: Acquired the Galore Creek property for Spectrum Gold, later merged with NovaGold Resources and partially sold to Teck Resources for $275M.
  • 2007: Oversaw Yamana Gold’s $577 million acquisition of Viceroy Resources as chairman.
  • 2010: Oversaw Osisko Mining’s $372 million acquisition of Brett Resources as chairman.
  • 2015: Inducted into the Canadian Mining Hall of Fame.
  • 1987: Graduated from the University of Alberta with B.Sc. in Geology.
  • 1987: Joined uranium giant Cameco and worked on the McArthur River discovery in Saksatchewan’s Athabasca Basin, which is now the world’s largest uranium mine.
  • 1989: Worked with French nuclear Company Cogema (now Orano) on the Shea Creek uranium discovery in Saskatchewan, Canada.
  • 1990-99: Managed the Hope Bay Gold Project with BHP Minerals, discovering three high-grade gold deposits.
  • 2007: Joined Fission Energy as VP of Exploration before rising to the rank of COO.
  • 2009: Led the technical team that discovered the high-grade J Zone uranium deposit at Waterbury Lake and sold to Denison Mines.
  • 2012: Used airborne radiometrics and radon in-lake survey technology to discover the Triple R uranium deposit on the Patterson Lake Property, with an indicated resource of 102M lbs of U3O8.
  • 2013: Received the Mining Person of the Year Award from the Northern Miner.
  • 2014: Received the Bill Dennis Award for a Canadian discovery.

This combined experience is coming to bear in one company to uncover Canada’s next mineral frontier.

Bringing Experience Together: SKRR Exploration

SKRR brings together the experience of two great explorers to uncover the next mineral frontier, Saskatchewan. This junior explorer is working on the next great discovery with 6 projects in the Trans-Hudson geological corridor

  • Father Lake Nickel Project: Copper, Nickel
  • Ithingo Project: Gold
  • Irving Project: Gold
  • Cathro Project: Gold
  • Leland Project: Gold
  • Olson Project: Gold
  • Manson Bay: Gold

With a proven location and legacy of exploration success, SKRR is ready to unlock the next mineral frontier in Saskatchewan and continue the tradition of a dedicated few uncovering the next great discovery.

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The World’s Top 10 Gold Mining Companies

Together, the world’s top 10 gold mining companies account for roughly 22% of the share of the total gold market.

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Top 10 Gold Mining Companies

The World’s Top 10 Gold Mining Companies

Unlike paper currency or many other types of assets, gold has maintained its value throughout the ages.

First used by cultures in modern-day Eastern Europe in 4,000 BC to make decorative objects, the metal today represents a global business with operations on every continent, except Antarctica.

The industry is dominated by a select group of majors.

Together, the world’s top 10 gold miners produced 27.48 million ounces (Moz) in 2020, worth approximately $48 billion, according to data from Mining Intelligence.

North America Leading

At a country level, China is the largest producer in the world accounting for around 11% of total global production.

However, no Chinese company appears among the top miners.

RankCompanyHeadquartersCountry2020 Production (Moz)
1Newmont DenverUSA 🇺🇸5.88
2Barrick GoldTorontoCanada 🇨🇦4.84
3PolyusMoscowRussia 🇷🇺2.87
4AngloGold AshantiJohannesburgSouth Africa 🇿🇦2.81
5Kinross GoldTorontoCanada 🇨🇦2.38
6Gold FieldsJohannesburgSouth Africa 🇿🇦2.13
7Newcrest MiningMelbourneAustralia 🇦🇺2.06
8Agnico EagleTorontoCanada 🇨🇦1.73
9Polymetal InternationalSt. PetersburgRussia 🇷🇺1.40
10Harmony GoldJohannesburgSouth Africa 🇿🇦1.38

At the top of the gold mining companies list, Colorado-based Newmont has ownership of mines in Nevada, Colorado, Ontario, Quebec, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Australia, Ghana, Argentina, Peru, and Suriname.

As the only American company on the list, Newmont produces 21% of the yellow metal poured by the top companies.

Canada, which is known for its mining industry, has three companies on the list; Barrick Gold, Kinross Gold, and Agnico Eagle, producing 32% combined.

Russia, which is expected to become the world’s top producer by 2029, has two companies ranked. Together, Polyus and Polymetal represent 15% of the top miners’ production.

The top 10 players account for ~22% of the total market share, which is anticipated to grow due to increased merger and acquisition activities.

Wealth and Luxury

Over six and a half thousand years after its discovery, more than 90% of the gold mined annually is destined for jewelry, bullion, and coins.

  • Jewelry: 36.83%,
  • Investment: 46.64%,
  • Central banks: 8.58%,
  • Technology: 7.95%

The metal is also used in dentistry, as it is the best material for fillings and crowns since it is easy to insert, and is non-reactive with the human body.

Golden Future

Global production fell by 1% in 2020, the first decline in a decade, according to the World Gold Council.

Some analysts argue the world has reached “peak gold” – which means that the maximum rate of extraction has passed and the production of the metal will continue to fall until, eventually, mining for it shall cease entirely.

Demand, however, shows no sign of slowing down as the golden metal remains firmly synonymous with security, stability, and longevity.

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