Real Assets
What is a Commodity Super Cycle?
Visualizing the Commodity Super Cycle
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the world has seen its population and the need for natural resources boom.
As more people and wealth translate into the demand for global goods, the prices of commodities—such as energy, agriculture, livestock, and metals—have often followed in sync.
This cycle, which tends to coincide with extended periods of industrialization and modernization, helps in telling a story of human development.
Why are Commodity Prices Cyclical?
Commodity prices go through extended periods during which prices are well above or below their long-term price trend. There are two types of swings in commodity prices: upswings and downswings.
Many economists believe that the upswing phase in super cycles results from a lag between unexpected, persistent, and positive trends to support commodity demand with slow-moving supply, such as the building of a new mine or planting a new crop. Eventually, as adequate supply becomes available and demand growth slows, the cycle enters a downswing phase.
While individual commodity groups have their own price patterns, when charted together they form extended periods of price trends known as “Commodity Super Cycles” where there is a recognizable pattern across major commodity groups.
How can a Commodity Super Cycle be Identified?
Commodity super cycles are different from immediate supply disruptions; high or low prices persist over time.
In our above chart, we used data from the Bank of Canada, who leveraged a statistical technique called an asymmetric band pass filter. This is a calculation that can identify the patterns or frequencies of events in sets of data.
Economists at the Bank of Canada employed this technique using their Commodity Price Index (BCPI) to search for evidence of super cycles. This is an index of the spot or transaction prices in U.S. dollars of 26 commodities produced in Canada and sold to world markets.
- Energy: Coal, Oil, Natural Gas
- Metals and Minerals: Gold, Silver, Nickel, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Potash, Lead, Iron
- Forestry: Pulp, Lumber, Newsprint
- Agriculture: Potatoes, Cattle, Hogs, Wheat, Barley, Canola, Corn
- Fisheries: Finfish, Shellfish
Using the band pass filter and the BCPI data, the chart indicates that there are four distinct commodity price super cycles since 1899.
- 1899-1932:
The first cycle coincides with the industrialization of the United States in the late 19th century. - 1933-1961:
The second began with the onset of global rearmament before the Second World War in the 1930s. - 1962-1995:
The third began with the reindustrialization of Europe and Japan in the late 1950s and early 1960s. - 1996 – Present:
The fourth began in the mid to late 1990s with the rapid industrialization of China
What Causes Commodity Cycles?
The rapid industrialization and growth of a nation or region are the main drivers of these commodity super cycles.
From the rapid industrialization of America emerging as a world power at the beginning of the 20th century, to the ascent of China at the beginning of the 21st century, these historical periods of growth and industrialization drive new demand for commodities.
Because there is often a lag in supply coming online, prices have nowhere to go but above long-term trend lines. Then, prices cannot subside until supply is overshot, or growth slows down.
Is This the Beginning of a New Super Cycle?
The evidence suggests that human industrialization drives commodity prices into cycles. However, past growth was asymmetric around the world with different countries taking the lion’s share of commodities at different times.
With more and more parts of the world experiencing growth simultaneously, demand for commodities is not isolated to a few nations.
Confined to Earth, we could possibly be entering an era where commodities could perpetually be scarce and valuable, breaking the cycles and giving power to nations with the greatest access to resources.
Each commodity has its own story, but together, they show the arc of human development.
Real Assets
All the Metals We Mined in One Visualization
This infographic visualizes the 2.8 billion tonnes of metals mined in 2022.
All the Metals We Mined in One Visualization
Metals are a big part of our daily lives, found in every building we enter and all devices we use.
Today, major industries that directly consume processed mineral materials contribute 14% of the United States economy.
The above infographic visualizes all 2.8 billion tonnes of metals mined in 2022 and highlights each metal’s largest end-use using data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS).
Iron Ore Dominance
Iron ore dominates the metals mining landscape, comprising 93% of the total mined. In 2022, 2.6 billion tonnes of iron ore were mined, containing about 1.6 billion tonnes of iron.
| Metal/Ore | Quantity Mined in 2022 (tonnes) | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Iron ore | 2,600,000,000 | 93.3% |
| Industrial metals | 185,111,835 | 6.6% |
| Technology and Precious Metals | 1,500,008 | 0.05% |
| Total | 2,786,611,843 | 100% |
Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Iron ores are found in various geologic environments, such as igneous, metamorphic, or sedimentary rocks, and can contain over 70% iron, with many falling in the 50-60% range.
Combined with other materials like coke and limestone, iron ore is primarily used in steel production. Today, almost all (98%) iron ore is dedicated to steelmaking.
The ore is typically mined in about 50 countries, but Australia, Brazil, China, and India are responsible for 75% of the production.
Because of its essential role in infrastructure development, iron ore is one of the most crucial materials underpinning urbanization and economic growth.
Industrial Metals
Industrial metals occupy the second position on our list, constituting 6.6% of all metals mined in 2022. These metals, including copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc, are employed in construction and industrial applications.
Aluminum constituted nearly 40% of industrial metal production in 2022. China was responsible for 56% of all aluminum produced.
| Industrial Metals | 2022 Mine Production (tonnes) | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | 69,000,000 | 37.3% |
| Chromium | 41,000,000 | 22.1% |
| Copper | 22,000,000 | 11.9% |
| Manganese | 20,000,000 | 10.8% |
| Zinc | 13,000,000 | 7.0% |
| Titanium (mineral concentrates) | 9,500,000 | 5.1% |
| Lead | 4,500,000 | 2.4% |
| Nickel | 3,300,000 | 1.8% |
| Zirconium Minerals (Zircon) | 1,400,000 | 0.8% |
| Magnesium | 1,000,000 | 0.5% |
| Strontium | 340,000 | 0.2% |
| Uranium | 49,355 | 0.03% |
| Bismuth | 20,000 | 0.01% |
| Mercury | 2,200 | 0.00% |
| Beryllium | 280 | 0.00% |
| Total | 185,111,835 | 100% |
In the second position is chromium, which plays a primary role in rendering stainless steel corrosion-resistant. South Africa led chromium production, accounting for 44% of the total mined last year.
Technology and Precious Metals
Despite representing less than 1% of all the metals mined, technology metals have been on the news over the last few years as countries and companies seek these materials to reduce carbon emissions and improve productivity.
| Technology and Precious Metals | 2022 Mine Production (tonnes) | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Tin | 310,000 | 20.7% |
| Rare Earth Oxides | 300,000 | 20.0% |
| Molybdenum | 250,000 | 16.7% |
| Cobalt | 190,000 | 12.7% |
| Lithium | 130,000 | 8.7% |
| Vanadium | 100,000 | 6.7% |
| Tungsten | 84,000 | 5.6% |
| Niobium | 79,000 | 5.3% |
| Silver | 26,000 | 1.7% |
| Cadmium | 24,000 | 1.6% |
| Gold | 3,100 | 0.2% |
| Tantalum | 2,000 | 0.1% |
| Indium | 900 | 0.1% |
| Gallium | 550 | 0.04% |
| Platinum Group Metals | 400 | 0.03% |
| Rhenium | 58 | 0.004% |
| Total | 1,500,008 | 100% |
They include lithium and cobalt, used in electric vehicles and battery storage, and rare earths, used in magnets, metal alloys, and electronics. Many of them are considered critical for countries’ security due to their role in clean energy technologies and dependency on other nations to supply domestic demand.
However, despite increasing interest in these metals, they are still behind precious metals such as gold and silver regarding market size.
The gold market, for example, reached $196 billion in 2022, compared to $10.6 billion for the rare earths market.
Real Assets
Visualizing Mining’s Footprint in British Columbia
Mining represents 7% of British Columbia’s GDP despite only accounting for 0.04% of the land use.
Visualizing Mining’s Footprint in British Columbia
British Columbia is considered a global leader in the development of socially and environmentally responsible resources.
An estimated 54% of the province’s total land is protected, making it one of the world’s greenest mining hubs.
This graphic by the B.C. Regional Mining Alliance (BCRMA) details mining’s footprint in the province.
A Tier 1 Jurisdiction for Mining
British Columbia covers almost 95 million hectares (234 million acres), more than any European country except Russia, and more than any U.S. state except Alaska.
As the largest mining province in Canada, BC registered $18 billion in revenue from the industry in 2022.
British Columbia stands as Canada’s sole producer of molybdenum, which finds applications in metallurgy and chemistry. Additionally, B.C. is the country’s leader producer of copper and steelmaking coal, besides gold and silver.
At the heart of British Columbia’s mining industry lies the Golden Triangle, one of the hottest mineral exploration districts in the world.
More than 150 mines have operated in the area since prospectors first arrived at the end of the 19th century. The region alone is endowed with minerals worth more than $800 billion.
How Green is B.C. Mining
Mining represents 7% of the province’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), despite only accounting for 0.04% of the land use. In comparison, farmland demands 3% of the land, bringing $2.1 billion (0.8%) per year.
| Land Use in B.C. | Revenue (2022, CAD $) | |
|---|---|---|
| Mining | 0.04% | $18.0 billion |
| Oil & Gas | 0.4% | $9.5 billion |
| Infrastructure | 1% | $25.0 billion |
| Farmland | 3% | $2.1 billion |
| Forest | 62% | $13.3 billion |
Mining operations are also supported by a stable, transparent, and effective policy environment. The province ranked as the world’s least risky for mining in 2017 and 2018.
In addition, mineral exploration has received ample support from local Indigenous communities. Today, mining accounts for over two-thirds of all indigenous people employed in the extractives sector.
According to the International Energy Agency, up to six times more minerals and metals will be needed by 2040 to accelerate the energy transition.
In this scenario, British Columbia is well positioned to support the transition to a low-carbon future and make a significant contribution to climate action.
The BCRMA is a strategic partnership between indigenous groups, industry, and government representatives that aims to promote B.C.’s mining opportunities internationally.
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