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What is a Commodity Super Cycle?

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What is a Commodity Super Cycle?

Visualizing the Commodity Super Cycle

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the world has seen its population and the need for natural resources boom.

As more people and wealth translate into the demand for global goods, the prices of commodities—such as energy, agriculture, livestock, and metals—have often followed in sync.

This cycle, which tends to coincide with extended periods of industrialization and modernization, helps in telling a story of human development.

Why are Commodity Prices Cyclical?

Commodity prices go through extended periods during which prices are well above or below their long-term price trend. There are two types of swings in commodity prices: upswings and downswings.

Many economists believe that the upswing phase in super cycles results from a lag between unexpected, persistent, and positive trends to support commodity demand with slow-moving supply, such as the building of a new mine or planting a new crop. Eventually, as adequate supply becomes available and demand growth slows, the cycle enters a downswing phase.

While individual commodity groups have their own price patterns, when charted together they form extended periods of price trends known as “Commodity Super Cycles” where there is a recognizable pattern across major commodity groups.

How can a Commodity Super Cycle be Identified?

Commodity super cycles are different from immediate supply disruptions; high or low prices persist over time.

In our above chart, we used data from the Bank of Canada, who leveraged a statistical technique called an asymmetric band pass filter. This is a calculation that can identify the patterns or frequencies of events in sets of data.

Economists at the Bank of Canada employed this technique using their Commodity Price Index (BCPI) to search for evidence of super cycles. This is an index of the spot or transaction prices in U.S. dollars of 26 commodities produced in Canada and sold to world markets.

  • Energy: Coal, Oil, Natural Gas
  • Metals and Minerals: Gold, Silver, Nickel, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Potash, Lead, Iron
  • Forestry: Pulp, Lumber, Newsprint
  • Agriculture: Potatoes, Cattle, Hogs, Wheat, Barley, Canola, Corn
  • Fisheries: Finfish, Shellfish

Using the band pass filter and the BCPI data, the chart indicates that there are four distinct commodity price super cycles since 1899.

  • 1899-1932:
    The first cycle coincides with the industrialization of the United States in the late 19th century.
  • 1933-1961:
    The second began with the onset of global rearmament before the Second World War in the 1930s.
  • 1962-1995:
    The third began with the reindustrialization of Europe and Japan in the late 1950s and early 1960s.
  • 1996 – Present:
    The fourth began in the mid to late 1990s with the rapid industrialization of China

What Causes Commodity Cycles?

The rapid industrialization and growth of a nation or region are the main drivers of these commodity super cycles.

From the rapid industrialization of America emerging as a world power at the beginning of the 20th century, to the ascent of China at the beginning of the 21st century, these historical periods of growth and industrialization drive new demand for commodities.

Because there is often a lag in supply coming online, prices have nowhere to go but above long-term trend lines. Then, prices cannot subside until supply is overshot, or growth slows down.

Is This the Beginning of a New Super Cycle?

The evidence suggests that human industrialization drives commodity prices into cycles. However, past growth was asymmetric around the world with different countries taking the lion’s share of commodities at different times.

With more and more parts of the world experiencing growth simultaneously, demand for commodities is not isolated to a few nations.

Confined to Earth, we could possibly be entering an era where commodities could perpetually be scarce and valuable, breaking the cycles and giving power to nations with the greatest access to resources.

Each commodity has its own story, but together, they show the arc of human development.

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Electrification

Visualizing Peru’s Silver Mining Strength

With a rich history of mining, Peru plays a vital role in supplying the world with silver for clean energy technologies and electrification.

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Peru's Silver Mining Strength

Visualizing Peru’s Silver Mining Strength

Peru’s silver mining industry is critical as the world progresses towards a clean energy transition. Silver’s use in EVs, solar energy, and mobile technologies will require ready supplies to meet demand.

Peru will be centre stage as the world’s second-largest producer of the precious metal.

This graphic sponsored by Silver X showcases Peru’s silver mining strength on the global scale, putting in perspective the country’s prolific production.

Global Silver Production by Country

Mexico, Peru, and China dominate global silver production, with these countries producing more than double the silver of any other country outside of the top three.

In terms of regional production, Central and South America provide the backbone for the world’s silver industry. With five nations in the top 10 producers, these regions delivered ~50% of the world’s 2020 silver production.

Country2020 Silver Production (in million ounces)Share of Global Silver Production
Mexico178.122.7%
Peru109.714.0%
China108.613.8%
Chile47.46.0%
Australia43.85.6%
Russia42.55.4%
Poland39.45.0%
United States31.74.0%
Bolivia29.93.8%
Argentina22.92.9%
World Total784.4100%

Along with being the top silver mining regions in the world, Central and South America silver production expects to have the strongest rebound in 2021.

While global silver production could increase by 8.2%, Central and South America’s production could rise by 12.1%.

Peru can feed this growth, with the country’s exploration investment forecast for this year expected to reach up to $300 million with over 60 projects currently in various stages of development.

The South American Powerhouse: Peru’s Silver Mining Strength

Despite its current silver production, there remains more to mine and explore. In fact, Peru holds the majority of the world’s silver reserves with 18.2%, making it the global focal point for silver exploration and future production.

CountrySilver Reserves (in tons)Share of World Silver
Peru91,00018.2%
China41,0008.2%
Mexico37,0007.4%
Chile26,0005.2%
Australia25,0005.0%
Other countries280,00056%
World total500,000100%

While 2020 and 2021 saw slowdowns in mineral production, Peru’s metallic mining subsector increased by 5.1% in August 2021 compared to the same month last year. The country’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics also highlighted a double-digit rise in silver production of 22.7% compared to August of last year.

Satiating the World’s Silver Demand

As silver demand is forecasted to increase by 15% just in 2021, silver supply constraints are a clear roadblock for clean energy technologies and electric vehicle production. With Peru’s annual silver production forecasted to grow by more than 27% by 2024, the country is looking to solve the world’s growing silver supply crunch.

The nation’s strong credit ratings and well-established mining sector offers investors a unique opportunity to tap into the growth of Peru and its silver industry, while powering renewable energy and electric vehicle production.

As a Peru-based mineral development and exploration company, Silver X Mining is working to produce and uncover the silver deposits that will provide the world with the metal it needs for cleaner technologies.

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Real Assets

The Next Frontier: Mineral Exploration in Saskatchewan

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Saskatchewan Mineral Exploration

The Next Frontier: Mineral Exploration in Saskatchewan

Lying in the heart of Canada is the next great mineral exploration frontier, Saskatchewan. This humble province lies at the center of one of the greatest mining countries in the world, but despite Canada’s long history with mining, Saskatchewan is still open for discovery.

This infographic from our sponsor SKRR Exploration shows where the next mineral frontier for discovery lies in Saskatchewan.

The Road to Resources: Opening for Business

Saskatchewan covers 588,239 square kilometers, roughly the size of Iran or Mongolia, with a population density of only 1.8 persons per square kilometer. This central province sits on the edge of a vast frontier that is rich with mineral resources that could power and feed the world.

In order to encourage investment, Saskatchewan has several incentive programs for the mining industry.

  • The Targeted Mineral Exploration Incentive: 25% rebate on eligible drilling costs in regions of high potential for base metals, precious metals and diamonds.
  • The Saskatchewan Mineral Exploration Tax Credit: A non-refundable 10% tax credit to Saskatchewan taxpayers who invest in eligible flow-through shares issued by mining or exploration companies.
  • A 10-year royalty holiday for new gold and base metal mines.
  • A 5-year incorporation tax rebate for mineral processing.

While the province is encouraging mineral exploration, there are already proven success stories that are just scraping the surface of the opportunities available.

Resources Ready to Go

In 2020, Saskatchewan sold C$7.4 billion worth of metals and minerals, the fourth highest amount in Canada. Saskatchewan’s mining sector provides business opportunities and jobs for over 12,400 individuals across the province, and contributes an additional 25,000 indirect jobs.

  • Potash: The province has the largest potash industry in the world, accounting for about 1/3 of annual global production and hosting nearly half of the world’s known reserves.
  • Uranium: The world’s richest deposits of uranium lie in Saskatchewan, giving the province the ability to produce more uranium with less land surface disturbance than almost anywhere on Earth.
  • Diamonds: In 2004, Shore Gold discovered diamonds near Fort à La Corne in central Saskatchewan. There is a plan to bring the 66-million carat Star-Orion South project into production.
  • Base Metals: The Flin Flon mining camp, on the Manitoba-Saskatchewan border, is a large base metal producer region and is estimated to have the highest contained value of ore per square kilometer in Canada for VMS deposits.
  • Gold: The province holds two multi-million ounce discoveries to date, the Seabee and MacLellan gold mines in the Trans-Hudson geological formation.

There is more to discovery. Exploration expenditures in 2019 were $264 million, and companies planned to spend $242 million in 2020.

SKRR Exploration: Opening a Frontier

SKRR Exploration is leading mineral exploration into Canada’s final frontier and has secured prime mineral properties to take advantage of the wave of demand for metals. SKRR has six gold and one base metal exploration projects in the heart of one of the most prospective geological belts in North America.

At the helm of SKRR exploration are two leaders who know the geology of Saskatchewan well and have a proven history of discovery, Ron Neolitzky and Ross McElroy. Neolitzky was inducted into the Canadian Mining Hall of Fame for his development of two successful precious metals mines. McElroy was part of the exploration team that discovered Cameco’s McArthur uranium deposit.

SKRR Exploration is bringing together the right elements of Saskatchewan to make the next great discovery.

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