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What is a Commodity Super Cycle?

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What is a Commodity Super Cycle?

Visualizing the Commodity Super Cycle

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the world has seen its population and the need for natural resources boom.

As more people and wealth translate into the demand for global goods, the prices of commodities—such as energy, agriculture, livestock, and metals—have often followed in sync.

This cycle, which tends to coincide with extended periods of industrialization and modernization, helps in telling a story of human development.

Why are Commodity Prices Cyclical?

Commodity prices go through extended periods during which prices are well above or below their long-term price trend. There are two types of swings in commodity prices: upswings and downswings.

Many economists believe that the upswing phase in super cycles results from a lag between unexpected, persistent, and positive trends to support commodity demand with slow-moving supply, such as the building of a new mine or planting a new crop. Eventually, as adequate supply becomes available and demand growth slows, the cycle enters a downswing phase.

While individual commodity groups have their own price patterns, when charted together they form extended periods of price trends known as “Commodity Super Cycles” where there is a recognizable pattern across major commodity groups.

How can a Commodity Super Cycle be Identified?

Commodity super cycles are different from immediate supply disruptions; high or low prices persist over time.

In our above chart, we used data from the Bank of Canada, who leveraged a statistical technique called an asymmetric band pass filter. This is a calculation that can identify the patterns or frequencies of events in sets of data.

Economists at the Bank of Canada employed this technique using their Commodity Price Index (BCPI) to search for evidence of super cycles. This is an index of the spot or transaction prices in U.S. dollars of 26 commodities produced in Canada and sold to world markets.

  • Energy: Coal, Oil, Natural Gas
  • Metals and Minerals: Gold, Silver, Nickel, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Potash, Lead, Iron
  • Forestry: Pulp, Lumber, Newsprint
  • Agriculture: Potatoes, Cattle, Hogs, Wheat, Barley, Canola, Corn
  • Fisheries: Finfish, Shellfish

Using the band pass filter and the BCPI data, the chart indicates that there are four distinct commodity price super cycles since 1899.

  • 1899-1932:
    The first cycle coincides with the industrialization of the United States in the late 19th century.
  • 1933-1961:
    The second began with the onset of global rearmament before the Second World War in the 1930s.
  • 1962-1995:
    The third began with the reindustrialization of Europe and Japan in the late 1950s and early 1960s.
  • 1996 – Present:
    The fourth began in the mid to late 1990s with the rapid industrialization of China

What Causes Commodity Cycles?

The rapid industrialization and growth of a nation or region are the main drivers of these commodity super cycles.

From the rapid industrialization of America emerging as a world power at the beginning of the 20th century, to the ascent of China at the beginning of the 21st century, these historical periods of growth and industrialization drive new demand for commodities.

Because there is often a lag in supply coming online, prices have nowhere to go but above long-term trend lines. Then, prices cannot subside until supply is overshot, or growth slows down.

Is This the Beginning of a New Super Cycle?

The evidence suggests that human industrialization drives commodity prices into cycles. However, past growth was asymmetric around the world with different countries taking the lion’s share of commodities at different times.

With more and more parts of the world experiencing growth simultaneously, demand for commodities is not isolated to a few nations.

Confined to Earth, we could possibly be entering an era where commodities could perpetually be scarce and valuable, breaking the cycles and giving power to nations with the greatest access to resources.

Each commodity has its own story, but together, they show the arc of human development.

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Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar Over Time

$1 in 1913 had the same purchasing power as $26 in 2020. This chart shows how the purchasing power of the dollar has changed over time.

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purchasing power of the dollar

What is Purchasing Power?

The purchasing power of a currency is the amount of goods and services that can be bought with one unit of the currency.

For example, one U.S. dollar could buy 10 bottles of beer in 1933. Today, it’s the cost of a small McDonald’s coffee. In other words, the purchasing power of the dollar—its value in terms of what it can buy—has decreased over time as price levels have risen.

Tracking the Purchasing Power of the Dollar

In 1913, the Federal Reserve Act granted Federal Reserve banks the ability to manage the money supply in order to ensure economic stability. Back then, a dollar could buy 30 Hershey’s chocolate bars.

As more dollars came into circulation, average prices of goods and services increased while the purchasing power of the dollar fell. By 1929, the value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 73% higher than in 1913, but a dollar was now enough only for 10 rolls of toilet paper.

Year EventPurchasing Power of $1What a Dollar Buys
1913Creation of the Federal Reserve System$26.1430 Hershey’s chocolate bars
1929Stock market crash$15.1410 rolls of toilet paper
1933Gold possession criminalized$19.9110 bottles of beer
1944Bretton Woods agreement$14.7120 bottles of Coca-Cola
1953End of the Korean War$9.6910 bags of pretzels
1964Escalation of the Vietnam War$8.351 drive-in movie ticket
1971End of the gold standard$6.3917 oranges
1987"Black Monday" stock market crash$2.282 boxes of crayons
1997Asian financial crisis$1.614 grapefruits
2008Global Financial crisis$1.202 lemons
2020COVID-19 pandemic$1.001 McDonald’s coffee

Between 1929-1933, the purchasing power of the dollar actually increased due to deflation and a 31% contraction in money supply before eventually declining again. Fast forward to 1944 and the U.S. dollar, fixed to gold at a rate of $35/oz, became the world’s reserve currency under the Bretton Woods agreement.

Meanwhile, the U.S. increased its money supply in order to finance the deficits of World War II followed by the Korean war and the Vietnam war. Hence, the buying power of the dollar reduced from 20 bottles of Coca-Cola in 1944 to a drive-in movie ticket in 1964.

By the late 1960s, the number of dollars in circulation was too high to be backed by U.S. gold reserves. President Nixon ceased direct convertibility of U.S. dollars to gold in 1971. This ended both the gold standard and the limit on the amount of currency that could be printed.

More Dollars in the System

Money supply (M2) in the U.S. has skyrocketed over the last two decades, up from $4.6 trillion in 2000 to $19.5 trillion in 2021.

The effects of the rise in money supply were amplified by the financial crisis of 2008 and more recently by the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, around 20% of all U.S. dollars in the money supply, $3.4 trillion, were created in 2020 alone.

How will the purchasing power of the dollar evolve going forward?

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Getting Gold Exposure: Bullion vs. ETFs vs. Mining Stocks

There are various investment methods to get gold exposure. Whether it’s gold bullion, ETFs, or mining stocks, which one works best for you?

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How to Get Gold Exposure in Your Portfolio, Explained

A lot of talking heads say, “Buy gold!” but don’t really explain exactly how to buy gold or get exposure to the precious metal.

There are options when it comes to getting exposure to the precious metal, and each one has upsides and downsides worth being mindful of.

Whether you’re interested in holding physical gold in a safe storage space or simply want to add some gold exposure to your investment portfolio, this infographic shows you the differences between gold bullion, gold ETFs, and gold mining stocks.

What to Consider Before Investing in Gold

There are some key considerations to be aware of before you begin investing.

While below are some of the main factors to keep in mind as you pick a gold investment method, be sure to research each method and its properties thoroughly before investing.

Downside and Volatility Risk

The first consideration for any kind of investment should always be how much drawdown you’re willing to stomach before pulling your money out.

When the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a price drop across the board for just about every kind of asset, the price of physical gold and gold-backed ETFs held up very differently compared to individual gold mining stocks and gold mining indices.

Case Study: Gold vs. Mining Stocks Drawdown and Returns

AssetDrawdown from March high to March lowReturns from March low to 2020 high
Spot gold and gold ETFs-14.8%42.9%
Barrick Gold Corporation-42.1%146.8%
Gold Miners ETF (GDX)-46.0%182.9%
Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)-52.7%237.9%

While physical gold and bullion ETFs (which track gold’s price movements) tend to be more resilient during market downturns, they also offer less upside compared to gold mining stocks and indices during bull markets.

Junior miners or exploration companies offer the greatest volatility and potential upside, but carry the highest risk. When investing in any mining company, concrete results from their planning and drilling along with efficient execution in setting up projects and production will best determine the stock’s valuation.

Active vs. Passive Management

Some investors like to actively manage their investments while others prefer a more passive “set and forget” approach.

Each approach has its merits, however, gold ETFs and mining stocks are better suited for more active investors, while shipping and transport costs for physical gold can add up if buying and selling frequently.

Determine whether you’re going to be actively managing your gold exposure or if you’re going to be letting your investment sit for a while. This way you can determine the best method to reduce fees and commissions.

Three Types of Gold Exposure: Pros and Cons

Now, let’s dive into the three main types of gold exposure: gold bullion, gold ETFs, and gold mining stocks and ETFs.

1. Gold Bullion

If you’re looking to purchase physical gold in the form of bullion, there are a lot of considerations to keep in mind. These range from the various fees you’ll pay to where and how you’ll be storing and protecting your gold.

Many bullion dealers offer storage as a service, reducing shipping costs and the extra work of finding somewhere secure to keep your gold.

Fixed Position Sizes and Liquidity

When buying gold bullion it’s important to remember that you are buying coins, bars, or ingots of gold. This means that if you’re looking to sell off half of your gold position but only have a single 1oz gold coin, you won’t be able to!

Due to this, gold bullion might not be the best option for those interested in actively managing their exposure or for those with smaller amounts of capital.

Buying and Selling Commissions

Just about every gold dealer will charge commissions on any buying or selling, which are typically <1% of the value of the order with lower commissions for larger volumes. Some dealers include their commissions as a premium directly onto their prices.

Storage Costs

Storing gold bullion with gold dealers or storage services will incur yearly storage costs that are typically a percentage of your holdings.

While some storage providers have low percentages, they will often have minimum monthly or yearly storage fees. For investors purchasing small amounts of gold it’s important to not let these fees eat up too much of your investment.

  • Fees range from 0.12% to 1.5% annually, with some storage services providing fee discounts for larger volumes of gold
  • While purchases of investment-grade bullion are tax-exempt, taxes are charged on storage fees.

Reputable gold storage services offer full insurance coverage on your bullion stored with them and will keep your gold physically separate from the company’s gold and off the company balance sheet. Some will even provide customers extra peace of mind with pictures of their bullion, typically for an additional cost.

Withdrawal Commissions and Shipping

If you’ve been storing your gold with a dealer but want it closer to home, you’ll have to pay withdrawal commissions along with shipping costs. Some dealers charge a flat rate per bullion or withdrawal, while others charge a percentage of your holdings.

If you’re having bullion sent to you without storing it at the dealer, you’ll just pay for shipping and insurance. These are typically flat fees along with a percentage of the dollar value of your order (ranging from 0.4% to 7.5% depending on the amount and types of bullion).

Before holding your gold privately it’s important to know:

  • Privately held gold is sometimes not fully trusted when sold back to bullion markets, and can lose some of its value.
  • Privately held gold is usually less physically safe compared to gold in a vault, and is almost always more expensive to insure.

2. Gold ETFs

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a more approachable option to get exposure to gold for those with some experience purchasing shares using online brokers and exchanges.

Gold ETFs enable investors to have exposure to gold’s price while avoiding storage, shipping, and insurance fees. There are also fewer liquidity bottlenecks and tighter spreads with gold ETFs compared to gold bullion.

When buying gold ETFs it is important to remember that in most cases, you never actually own any physical gold. Even though these funds are backed by physical gold, you cannot redeem your shares in exchange for gold.

  • Buying and Selling Commissions: When buying or selling shares of an ETF you’ll likely pay commissions. These commissions are decided by the brokerages and are typically below $10 per buy and sell order, with some brokerages offering commission-free trading to cut costs for active traders.
  • Expense Ratios: Similar to storage fees on gold bullion kept in a vault, gold ETFs charge a yearly expense ratio to cover the costs of management and operations. Expense ratios are typically quite low, ranging from 0.17% to 0.75%, and are taken directly from your investment.

3. Gold Mining Stocks and ETFs

Gold mining stocks and mining ETFs are the most distant from physical gold, and offer exposure to the operating profits, losses, or even discoveries of mining or exploration companies.

Mining ETFs (like the GDX and GDXJ) are a basket of mining stocks for purchase as a single share, helping spread out the operational and concentration risk of investing in a single mining company. Mining ETFs are typically less volatile than individual mining stocks, but can still offer increased returns compared to gold bullion and gold ETFs.

Similar to gold ETFs, mining stocks and mining ETFs have:

  • Buying and selling commissions decided by your online brokerage
  • Annual expense ratios for mining ETFs
  • Potential for dividends depending on the individual mining stock

If buying individual gold stocks, it is important to know that the prospects of any one company can differ incredibly. For this reason, it’s crucial to invest in quality companies, and to have an understanding at factors at play such as management competence, jurisdiction, or project quality and economics.

Find a Gold Investment Method that Works Best for You

Be aware that the methods discussed in this article aren’t the only ways to invest in gold.

If you’re willing to learn a bit more about contract structures and more complex fee structures, look into gold futures contracts. For those with some options understanding and experience, buying call options is another way to get gold exposure. Rare coins and jewelry are another investment method that also carries some artistic value.

Whatever you pick, make sure to thoroughly research your investment, its transaction and price mechanisms, and the commissions and fees you’ll be paying.

All of the investment methods discussed have differing tax implications depending on where you reside, which could influence your decision on how you invest in gold.

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