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Charted: Commodities vs Equity Valuations (1970–2023)

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Charted: Commodities vs Equity Valuations

Charted: Commodities vs Equity Valuations (1970–2023)

In recent years, commodity prices have reached a 50-year low relative to overall equity markets (S&P 500). Historically, lows in the ratio of commodities to equities have corresponded with the beginning of new commodity supercycles.

The infographic above uses data from Incrementum AG and Crescat Capital LLC to show the relationship between commodities and U.S. equities over the last five decades.

What is a Commodity Supercycle?

A commodity supercycle occurs when prices of commodities rise above their long-term averages for long periods of time, even decades. Once the supply has adequately grown to meet demand, the cycle enters a downswing.

The last commodity supercycle started in 1996 and peaked in 2011, driven by raw material demand from rapid industrialization taking place in Brazil, India, Russia, and China.

Supercycles in Commodity Prices 1899-19321933-19611962-19951996-2016
Peak year1904194719782011
Peak of supercycle from long-term trend (%)10.214.119.533.5
Trough of supercycle from long-term trend (%)-12.9-10-38.123.7
Length of cycle from trough-to-trough (years)33293420
Upswing (years)5151716
Downswing (years)2814174

Source: Bank of Canada, IHS

While no two supercycles look the same, they all have three indicators in common: a surge in supply, a surge in demand, and a surge in price.

In general, commodity prices and equity valuations tend to have a low to negative correlation, making it rare to see the two moving in tandem in the same direction for any long period of time.

Commodity Prices and Equity Valuations

In line with the above notion, commodity prices and equity valuations have often been at odds with one another in past market cycles.

During the 1970s and early 1980s, for example, rising oil prices led to a significant decline in stock prices as higher energy costs hurt corporate profits. In contrast, during the first half of the 2000s, low oil prices were accompanied by a strong equity bull market that ended with the 2008 stock market crash.

The relationship, however, is not always straightforward and can be affected by various other factors, such as global economic growth, supply and demand, inflation, and other market events.

With the most recent commodity supercycle peaking in 2011, could the next big one be right around the corner?

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Visualizing Mining’s Footprint in British Columbia

Mining represents 7% of British Columbia’s GDP despite only accounting for 0.04% of the land use.

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Mining Footprint in British Columbia

Visualizing Mining’s Footprint in British Columbia

British Columbia is considered a global leader in the development of socially and environmentally responsible resources.

An estimated 54% of the province’s total land is protected, making it one of the world’s greenest mining hubs.

This graphic by the B.C. Regional Mining Alliance (BCRMA) details mining’s footprint in the province.

A Tier 1 Jurisdiction for Mining

British Columbia covers almost 95 million hectares (234 million acres), more than any European country except Russia, and more than any U.S. state except Alaska.

As the largest mining province in Canada, BC registered $18 billion in revenue from the industry in 2022.

British Columbia stands as Canada’s sole producer of molybdenum, which finds applications in metallurgy and chemistry. Additionally, B.C. is the country’s leader producer of copper and steelmaking coal, besides gold and silver.

B.C. mined material breakdown

At the heart of British Columbia’s mining industry lies the Golden Triangle, one of the hottest mineral exploration districts in the world.

More than 150 mines have operated in the area since prospectors first arrived at the end of the 19th century. The region alone is endowed with minerals worth more than $800 billion.

How Green is B.C. Mining

Mining represents 7% of the province’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), despite only accounting for 0.04% of the land use. In comparison, farmland demands 3% of the land, bringing $2.1 billion (0.8%) per year.

Land Use in B.C.Revenue (2022, CAD $)
Mining 0.04%$18.0 billion
Oil & Gas 0.4%$9.5 billion
Infrastructure1%$25.0 billion
Farmland3%$2.1 billion
Forest62%$13.3 billion

Mining operations are also supported by a stable, transparent, and effective policy environment. The province ranked as the world’s least risky for mining in 2017 and 2018.

In addition, mineral exploration has received ample support from local Indigenous communities. Today, mining accounts for over two-thirds of all indigenous people employed in the extractives sector.

According to the International Energy Agency, up to six times more minerals and metals will be needed by 2040 to accelerate the energy transition.

In this scenario, British Columbia is well positioned to support the transition to a low-carbon future and make a significant contribution to climate action.

The BCRMA is a strategic partnership between indigenous groups, industry, and government representatives that aims to promote B.C.’s mining opportunities internationally.

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Mapped: The 10 Largest Undeveloped Silver Deposits in the World

Global silver demand is poised to soar in the next decade, driven by emerging technologies like EVs and solar power.

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Ranked: The Largest Undeveloped Silver Deposits in the World

Global silver demand is poised to soar in the next decade, driven by emerging technologies like electric vehicles and solar power.

Silver demand from solar alone has grown from less than 50 million ounces (Moz) a decade ago to an expected 160 Moz in 2023.

So, where will the necessary supply come from to meet this surge? This graphic from Discovery Silver shows the largest undeveloped silver deposits in the world.

Silver in Green Technology

Silver is a vital part of solar cells. The metal is converted into paste and coated onto silicon wafers to make solar arrays.

When sunlight hits the silicon, silver helps to transport the generated electricity for immediate use or store it in batteries. A typical solar panel can contain as much as 20 grams of silver.

Silver’s conductivity and corrosion resistance are vital in electronics, especially electric vehicles where nearly all electrical connections rely on the metal. Over 50 million ounces of silver are used every year to enhance conductivity in powered seats, windows, and other vehicle electronics.

In 2022, 27% of all silver consumption in the U.S. was attributed to electrical and electronics, while 10% was linked to solar technology.

Global Silver Demand Rising

With the increasing demand for new technologies combined with physical investment (bars) demand, the silver market saw a 237.7 Moz deficit in 2022, an all-time record.

2023 silver industrial demand is forecasted to rise by 4% to a new record high.

However, according to the Silver Institute, mined output is expected to decline over the next five years.

In this scenario, new mines are expected to play an important role in meeting the demand.

Currently, the world’s top 10 undeveloped silver deposits contain 984 Moz. Discovery Silver’s Cordero project in Mexico leads the ranking:

RankProjectOwnerCountryContained Silver Reserves (Moz)
1CorderoDiscovery SilverMexico266
2Corani Bear Creek Mining CorporationPeru229
3Prognoz Polymetal International plcRussia125
4Bowdens Silver Mines LimitedAustralia66
5Santa Ana Formerly Bear CreekPeru63
6FuwanMinco Silver CorporationChina55
7Nueva EsperanzaKingsgate Consolidated LimitedChile48
8Vares Adriatic Metals PLCBosnia & Herzegovina47
9Terronera Endeavour Silver Corp.Mexico47
10MenkechkaGeoProMining Ltd.Russia38

Cordero is located in Chihuahua State in Mexico, one of the world’s most prolific silver producing regions.

Once in production, it is expected to become one of the top three silver mines in the world.

As silver demand is expected to soar, Discovery Silver offers direct investment exposure to this paradigm shift through its Cordero Project. Click here to learn more about Discovery Silver.

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