Electrification
Visualizing China’s Evolving Energy Mix
Visualizing China’s Energy Transition in 5 Charts
In September 2020, China’s President Xi Jinping announced the steps his nation would take to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 via videolink before the United Nations Assembly in New York.
This infographic takes a look at what this ambitious plan for China’s energy would look like and what efforts are underway towards this goal.
China’s Ambitious Plan
A carbon-neutral China requires changing the entire economy over the next 40 years, a change the IEA compares to the ambition of the reforms that industrialized the country’s economy in the first place.
China is the world’s largest consumer of electricity, well ahead of the second place consumer, the United States. Currently, 80% of China’s energy comes from fossil fuels, but this plan envisions only 14% coming from coal, oil, and natural gas in 2060.
Energy Source | 2025 | 2060 | % Change |
---|---|---|---|
Coal | 52% | 3% | -94% |
Oil | 18% | 8% | -56% |
Natural Gas | 10% | 3% | -70% |
Wind | 4% | 24% | +500% |
Nuclear | 3% | 19% | +533% |
Biomass | 2% | 5% | +150% |
Solar | 3% | 23% | +667% |
Hydro | 8% | 15% | +88% |
Source: Tsinghua University Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy; U.S. EIA
According to the Carbon Brief, China’s 14th five-year plan appears to enshrine Xi’s goal. This plan outlines a general and non specific list of projects for a new energy system. It includes the construction of eight large-scale clean energy centers, coastal nuclear power, electricity transmission routes, power system flexibility, oil-and-gas transportation, and storage capacity.
Progress Towards Renewables?
While the goal seems far off in the future, China is on a trajectory towards reducing the carbon emissions of its electricity grid with declining coal usage, increased nuclear, and increased solar power capacity.
According to ChinaPower, coal fueled the rise of China with the country using 144 million tonnes of oil equivalent “Mtoe” in 1965, peaking at 1,969 Mtoe in 2013. However, its share as part of the country’s total energy mix has been declining since the 1990s from ~77% to just under ~60%.
Another trend in China’s energy transition will be the greater consumption of energy as electricity. As China urbanized, its cities expanded creating greater demand for electricity in homes, businesses, and everyday life. This trend is set to continue and approach 40% of total energy consumed by 2030 up from ~5% in 1990.
Under the new plan, by 2060, China is set to have 42% of its energy coming from solar and nuclear while in 2025 it is only expected to be 6%. China has been adding nuclear and solar capacity and expects to add the equivalent of 20 new reactors by 2025 and enough solar power for 33 million homes (110GW).
Changing the energy mix away from fossil fuels, while ushering in a new economic model is no small task.
Up to the Task?
China is the world’s factory and has relatively young industrial infrastructure with fleets of coal plants, steel mills, and cement factories with plenty of life left.
However, China also is the biggest investor in low-carbon energy sources, has access to massive technological talent, and holds a strong central government to guide the transition.
The direction China takes will have the greatest impact on the health of the planet and provide guidance for other countries looking to change their energy mixes, for better or for worse.
The world is watching…even if it’s by videolink.
Electrification
Visualizing the Supply Deficit of Battery Minerals (2024-2034P)
A surplus of key metals is expected to shift to a major deficit within a decade.

Visualizing the Supply Deficit of Battery Minerals (2024-2034P)
The world currently produces a surplus of key battery minerals, but this is projected to shift to a significant deficit over the next 10 years.
This graphic illustrates this change, driven primarily by growing battery demand. The data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of November 2024.
Minerals in a Lithium-Ion Battery Cathode
Minerals make up the bulk of materials used to produce parts within the cell, ensuring the flow of electrical current:
- Lithium: Acts as the primary charge carrier, enabling energy storage and transfer within the battery.
- Cobalt: Stabilizes the cathode structure, improving battery lifespan and performance.
- Nickel: Boosts energy density, allowing batteries to store more energy.
- Manganese: Enhances thermal stability and safety, reducing overheating risks.
The cells in an average battery with a 60 kilowatt-hour (kWh) capacity—the same size used in a Chevy Bolt—contain roughly 185 kilograms of minerals.
Battery Demand Forecast
Due to the growing demand for these materials, their production and mining have increased exponentially in recent years, led by China. In this scenario, all the metals shown in the graphic currently experience a surplus.
In the long term, however, with the greater adoption of batteries and other renewable energy technologies, projections indicate that all these minerals will enter a deficit.
For example, lithium demand is expected to more than triple by 2034, resulting in a projected deficit of 572,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). According to Benchmark analysis, the lithium industry would need over $40 billion in investment to meet demand by 2030.
Metric | Lithium (in tonnes LCE) | Nickel (in tonnes) | Cobalt (in tonnes) | Manganese (in tonnes) |
---|---|---|---|---|
2024 Demand | 1,103,000 | 3,440,000 | 230,000 | 119,000 |
2024 Surplus | 88,000 | 117,000 | 24,000 | 11,000 |
2034 Demand | 3,758,000 | 6,082,000 | 468,000 | 650,000 |
2034 Deficit | -572,000 | -839,000 | -91,000 | -307,000 |
Nickel demand, on the other hand, is expected to almost double, leading to a deficit of 839,000 tonnes by 2034. The surge in demand is attributed primarily to the rise of mid- and high-performance electric vehicles (EVs) in Western markets.
Electrification
Visualizing the EU’s Critical Minerals Gap by 2030
This graphic underscores the scale of the challenge the bloc faces in strengthening its critical mineral supply by 2030.

Visualizing EU’s Critical Minerals Gap by 2030
The European Union’s Critical Raw Material Act sets out several ambitious goals to enhance the resilience of its critical mineral supply chains.
The Act includes non-binding targets for the EU to build sufficient mining capacity so that mines within the bloc can meet 10% of its critical mineral demand.
Additionally, the Act establishes a goal for 40% of demand to be met by processing within the bloc, and 25% through recycling.
Several months after the Act’s passage in May 2024, this graphic highlights the scale of the challenge the EU aims to overcome. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of July 2024. The graphic excludes synthetic graphite.
Securing Europe’s Supply of Critical Materials
With the exception of nickel mining, none of the battery minerals deemed strategic by the EU are on track to meet these goals.
Graphite, the largest mineral component used in batteries, is of particular concern. There is no EU-mined supply of manganese ore or coke, the precursor to synthetic graphite.
By 2030, the European Union is expected to supply 16,000 tonnes of flake graphite locally, compared to the 45,000 tonnes it would need to meet the 10% mining target.
Metal | 2030 Demand (tonnes) | Mining (F) | Processing (F) | Recycling (F) | Mining Target | Processing Target | Recycling Target |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lithium | 459K | 29K | 46K | 25K | 46K | 184K | 115K |
Nickel | 403K | 42K | 123K | 25K | 40K | 161K | 101K |
Cobalt | 94K | 1K | 19K | 6K | 9K | 37K | 23K |
Manganese | 147K | 0K | 21K | 5K | 15K | 59K | 37K |
Flake Graphite | 453K | 16K | 17K | N/A | 45K | 86K | N/A |
The EU is also expected to mine 29,000 tonnes of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) compared to the 46,000 tonnes needed to meet the 10% target.
In terms of mineral processing, the bloc is expected to process 25% of its lithium requirements, 76% of nickel, 51% of cobalt, 36% of manganese, and 20% of flake graphite.
The EU is expected to recycle only 22% of its lithium needs, 25% of nickel, 26% of cobalt, and 14% of manganese. Graphite, meanwhile, is not widely recycled on a commercial scale.
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