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Are Copper Prices in a Supercycle? A 120-Year Perspective

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Are Copper Prices in a Supercycle

Are Copper Prices in a Supercycle? A 120-Year Perspective

There are multiple factors that could fuel the price of copper to record highs, including the global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. trillion-dollar stimulus package, and the ongoing energy transition.

As a result of this, some global banks are predicting a supercycle for the metal, i.e., a sustained spell of abnormally strong demand growth that producers struggle to match, sparking a rally in prices that can last decades.

To put the current trend into perspective, the above graphic uses data from the U.S. Federal Reserve and consultancy Roskill to picture copper’s previous rallies over the last 120 years.

Historic EventsPrice In USD/Tonne
1914 - World War I$11,648
1930 - Great Depression$4,690
1942 - World War II$3,514
1973 - Oil Crisis$9,196
1997 - Asian Crisis $2,420
2008 - Financial Crisis$11,000
2020 - COVID-19$4,700

The Rise of a Super Power: U.S. Supercycle

Industrialization and urbanization in the United States sparked the first supercycle of the 20th century. Machines replaced hand labor as the main means of manufacturing and people moved to cities in record numbers. Immigration and natural growth caused the U.S. population to rise from 40 million in 1870 to 100 million in 1916.

“What’s right about America is that although we have a mess of problems, we have great capacity – intellect and resources – to do some thing about them.” – Henry Ford II

The value of goods produced in the U.S. increased almost tenfold between 1870 and 1916. The cycle was succeeded by the Great Depression, with a sharp decline in world consumption that brought the copper price to the lowest since 1894 ($4,690 per tonne).

Pax Americana: The Post-War Copper Supercycle

During WWII, the U.S. government considered copper a critical metal to the military. In order to conserve copper supply, the use of copper in building construction was prohibited, specific products with copper were limited to 60% of its previous war usage, and the War Production Board allocated supply to specific manufacturers.

At the center of global copper markets, the London Metals Exchange fixed the price of copper at £56/tonne ($3,514 per tonne, adjusted to 2021 inflation) during the war and the government issued permits to control purchases. The official price would rise after the war due to increased demand from reconstruction and the rise of the automobile, but price controls were not lifted until 1953.

The United States, Soviet Union, Western European, and East Asian countries experienced unusual growth after World War II. The reconstruction of Europe and Japan powered the commodities market and despite the scale of material damage, industrial equipment and plants survived the war remarkably intact.

“I was very lucky, I was part of the post-war period when everything had to be redone.” – Pierre Cardin

The outbreak of the Korean War in 1950 further strengthened demand as countries commenced strategic stockpiling programs. In January 1951, the US government imposed a ceiling price of 24.6¢/lb on domestic copper which remained in place until the end of 1952. Price controls held U.S. domestic prices lower than world prices, creating shortages.

According to assets managing firm Winton, U.S. prices remained lower after the release of these controls, as producers sought to prevent the substitution of copper wiring with cheaper materials such as aluminum. This two-tier market – producer prices for U.S. consumers and LME prices for everyone else – was in place until 1970.

The Pax Americana spanned from the end of the Second World War in 1945 to the early 1970s, when the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system and the 1973 oil crisis caused high unemployment and high inflation in most of the Western world. Prices jumped to $9,196 per tonne in 1973.

The Four Tigers and The Rise of China: Asian Supercycles

The massive growth of East Asia nations drove the next two supercycles of the century: (1983-1994) and the 2000s commodities boom (2002-2014).

Specifically, Japan played a central role in the third supercycle of the century. The country achieved record economic growth, averaging 10% a year until the seventies. Its economy grew from one less productive than Italy to the third-largest in the world, behind only the United States and the Soviet Union. Growth was especially strong in heavy industry and in advanced technology.

The most recent cycle started in 2002 after China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) and started to modernize its economy. The country entered a phase of roaring economic growth, fueled by a rollout of infrastructure and cities on an unprecedented scale. Copper price reached $9,000 per tonne in May 2006, pressured by strong Chinese demand.

Are Copper Prices in a Supercycle?

Previous copper rallies reveal a pattern of broad-based growth, industrialization, and new technologies can help drive the demand and prices. Is the global economy entering such a phase?

As world economies emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic and decarbonization is top-of-mind in many countries, copper is set to play a key role as an electrical conductor. Electric and hybrid cars use more copper than regular gasoline vehicles – 165lbs, 110lbs and 55lbs respectively. Renewables also demand more copper: A single wind farm can contain between 4 million and 15 million pounds of metal.

The copper price hit a record high in May 2021 ($10,476 a tonne) and trading house Trafigura Group, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America expect the metal to extend its recent gains. Whether it will be enough for a new supercycle is yet to be seen.

Hindsight is 20/20 but the future looks electric.

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Electrification

Charted: Battery Capacity by Country (2024-2030)

This graphic compares battery capacity by cathode type across major countries.

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This graphic, using exclusive data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, compares battery capacity by cathode type across major countries.

Charted: Battery Capacity by Country (2024-2030)

As the global energy transition accelerates, battery demand continues to soar—along with competition between battery chemistries.

According to the International Energy Agency, in 2024, electric vehicle sales rose by 25% to 17 million, pushing annual battery demand past 1 terawatt-hour (TWh)—a historic milestone.

This graphic, using exclusive data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (as of February 2025), compares battery capacity by cathode type across major countries. It focuses on the two dominant chemistries: Nickel Cobalt Manganese (NCM) and Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP).

Understanding Cathode Chemistries

Batteries store and release energy through the movement of lithium ions. The cathode—a key electrode—determines a battery’s cost, range, and thermal performance.

NCM

  • Offers higher energy density and better performance in cold climates, but is more expensive and has a shorter lifespan.

LFP

  • Known for its lower cost and improved thermal stability, though it delivers a shorter driving range and adds weight.

As of now, LFP cathodes make up 40% of the EV market in terms of gigawatt-hours (GWh).

Beyond passenger vehicles, LFP batteries are widely used in systems that undergo frequent charging and discharging—like residential and grid-scale energy storage—where added weight isn’t a major concern. They’re also ideal for daily-use applications such as buses and delivery fleets.

Regional Market Trends

In China, LFP is already dominant, accounting for 64% of the market in 2024. By 2030, that figure is projected to grow to 76%, driven by a focus on affordability in the world’s largest EV market. Notably, over 70% of all EV batteries ever manufactured have been produced in China, contributing to deep manufacturing expertise.

Region/CountryYear% NCM% LFP% Other
China202427%64%8%
North America202471%7%22%
Europe202469%8%24%
South Korea202462%4%35%
Japan202458%0%42%

Outside of China, NCM remains the leading chemistry due to consumer demand for longer range and premium performance.

North America – NCM holds a 71% share in 2024, with a slight decline to 69% forecasted for 2030.

Europe – NCM’s share is expected to grow from 69% in 2024 to 71% by 2030.

South Korea and Japan – Both countries show similar trends, with NCM gaining share as LFP remains limited or absent.

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Top 20 Countries by Battery Storage Capacity

China holds about two-thirds of global BESS capacity.

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This graphic highlights the top 20 battery storage capacity markets by current and planned grid capacity in gigawatt hour (GWh).

Visualizing the Top 20 Countries by Battery Storage Capacity

Over the past three years, the Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) market has been the fastest-growing segment of global battery demand. These systems store electricity using batteries, helping stabilize the grid, store renewable energy, and provide backup power.

In 2024, the market grew by 52%, compared to 25% growth in the EV battery market. Among the top companies in the BESS market are technology giants such as Samsung, LG, BYD, Panasonic, and Tesla.

This graphic highlights the top 20 BESS markets by current and planned grid capacity in gigawatt hour (GWh), based on exclusive data from Rho Motion as of February 2025.

Chinese Dominance

As with the EV market, China currently dominates global BESS deployments, accounting for approximately two-thirds of installed capacity. However, other markets are expected to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by low-cost lithium-ion cells and the expansion of renewable energy capacity.

Currently, China has 215.5 GWh of installed capacity and an ambitious 505.6 GWh project pipeline. The U.S. follows with 82.1 GWh installed and 162.5 GWh planned.

Top BESS MarketsInstalled 2024 (GWh)2027P
🇨🇳 China215.5721.2
🇺🇸 USA82.1244.6
🇬🇧 UK7.556.3
🇦🇺 Australia5.6102.9
🇨🇱 Chile3.841.0
🇮🇹 Italy2.27.9
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia1.332.4
🇿🇦 South Africa1.39.4
🇮🇪 Ireland1.62.5
🇵🇭 Philippines1.06.1
🇯🇵 Japan1.05.0
🇩🇪 Germany1.06.2
🇰🇷 South Korea1.11.3
🇮🇱 Israel0.84.6
🇫🇷 France0.61.8
🇧🇪 Belgium0.75.3
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan0.65.9
🇸🇪 Sweden0.61.5
🇮🇳 India0.54.3
🇨🇦 Canada0.318.3

Canada is projected to be the fastest-growing market through 2027, with its cumulative capacity hitting 18.3 GWh—a significant increase from its current 0.3 GWh capacity.

Countries such as Australia (97.3 GWh pipeline), Saudi Arabia (31.1 GWh), and Chile (37.2 GWh) have relatively small current installations but plan substantial expansions. Within Europe, the UK leads with 7.5 GWh of installed capacity and 48.7 GWh in the pipeline, while Italy, Germany, France, and Belgium show steady but more modest growth.

Despite being technological leaders, Japan (4 GWh pipeline) and South Korea (0.3 GWh) have relatively low planned BESS expansions.

According to Rho Motion, China will remain the dominant player in 2027, but its share of the total market is expected to decline to just over 50% based on the current project pipeline.

While the BESS market is expanding, challenges remain, including grid connection bottlenecks and the development of revenue streams in emerging markets.

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