Real Assets
Explained: India’s Gold Demand During Diwali
India’s Gold Demand During Diwali
In India, gold’s significance goes far beyond investment and jewelry. The yellow metal is woven into India’s cultural history and is revered by a population of over 1.3 billion.
India is one of the largest markets for gold consumption, with jewelry, bars, and coins accounting for the bulk of annual demand. Indian gold demand typically peaks between October and December on the back of Diwali, the festival of lights, followed by thousands of weddings.
But why do Indians buy gold during Diwali?
Gold’s Significance During Diwali
Indians consider it auspicious to purchase gold—a symbol of wealth, purity, and prosperity—on many festive occasions, and Diwali is the biggest one of them.
Diwali is a five-day festival that celebrates the triumph of good over evil and light over darkness, based on Hindu mythology. For many Indians, this festival is associated with welcoming good luck, positivity, and prosperity.
People often dedicate gold purchases during Diwali to deities, especially Lakshmi, the goddess of wealth. Gold is also a popular festive and wedding gift at this time of the year.
India’s Record Gold Demand in Diwali 2021
India’s gold consumption in the second half of every year is typically higher than in the first half, coinciding with Diwali in October (beginning of Q4), according to data from the World Gold Council.
Year | Gold Jewelry, Bar, and Coin Demand (tonnes) | YoY % Change |
---|---|---|
H1 2010 | 447 | N/A |
H2 2010 | 555 | N/A |
H1 2011 | 590 | 32.1% |
H2 2011 | 384 | -30.8% |
H1 2012 | 404 | -31.5% |
H2 2012 | 510 | 32.7% |
H1 2013 | 557 | 37.9% |
H2 2013 | 402 | -21.3% |
H1 2014 | 370 | -33.5% |
H2 2014 | 463 | 15.3% |
H1 2015 | 350 | -5.5% |
H2 2015 | 507 | 9.5% |
H1 2016 | 229 | -34.5% |
H2 2016 | 437 | -13.9% |
H1 2017 | 363 | 58.4% |
H2 2017 | 408 | -6.6% |
H1 2018 | 341 | -6.2% |
H2 2018 | 420 | 2.9% |
H1 2019 | 372 | 9.2% |
H2 2019 | 318 | -24.2% |
H1 2020 | 166 | -55.5% |
H2 2020 | 281 | -11.8% |
H1 2021 | 285 | 72.3% |
H2 2021 | 512 | 82.3% |
H1 2022 | 306 | 7.3% |
Following a significant drop in demand in 2020, Indians bought a record amount of gold jewelry in Q4 2021 at 265 tonnes, worth $15.3 billion at the time. Overall, gold jewelry, bar, and coin demand in H2 2021 saw an 82% increase year-over-year.
This increase was largely driven by the festive season and pent-up demand from subdued celebrations and consumption in 2020. As of the first half of 2022, gold demand was up 7.3% relative to 2021.
With Diwali celebrations in full swing, will India see another record quarter for gold demand? It remains to be seen, with gold’s festive tailwinds likely to meet economic headwinds in the form of uncertainty and higher import duties.
Real Assets
Charted: The Value Gap Between the Gold Price and Gold Miners
While gold prices hit all-time highs, gold mining stocks have lagged far behind.
Gold Price vs. Gold Mining Stocks
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on Apple or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Although the price of gold has reached new record highs in 2024, gold miners are still far from their 2011 peaks.
In this graphic, we illustrate the evolution of gold prices since 2000 compared to the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI), which consists of the largest and most widely held public gold production companies. The data was compiled by Incrementum AG.
Mining Stocks Lag Far Behind
In April 2024, gold reached a new record high as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled policymakers may delay interest rate cuts until clearer signs of declining inflation materialize.
Additionally, with elections occurring in more than 60 countries in 2024 and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, central banks are continuing to buy gold to strengthen their reserves, creating momentum for the metal.
Traditionally known as a hedge against inflation and a safe haven during times of political and economic uncertainty, gold has climbed over 11% so far this year.
According to Business Insider, gold miners experienced their best performance in a year in March 2024. During that month, the gold mining sector outperformed all other U.S. industries, surpassing even the performance of semiconductor stocks.
Still, physical gold has outperformed shares of gold-mining companies over the past three years by one of the largest margins in decades.
Year | Gold Price | NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI) |
---|---|---|
2023 | $2,062.92 | $243.31 |
2022 | $1,824.32 | $229.75 |
2021 | $1,828.60 | $258.87 |
2020 | $1,895.10 | $299.64 |
2019 | $1,523.00 | $241.94 |
2018 | $1,281.65 | $160.58 |
2017 | $1,296.50 | $192.31 |
2016 | $1,151.70 | $182.31 |
2015 | $1,060.20 | $111.18 |
2014 | $1,199.25 | $164.03 |
2013 | $1,201.50 | $197.70 |
2012 | $1,664.00 | $444.22 |
2011 | $1,574.50 | $498.73 |
2010 | $1,410.25 | $573.32 |
2009 | $1,104.00 | $429.91 |
2008 | $865.00 | $302.41 |
2007 | $836.50 | $409.37 |
2006 | $635.70 | $338.24 |
2005 | $513.00 | $276.90 |
2004 | $438.00 | $215.33 |
2003 | $417.25 | $242.93 |
2002 | $342.75 | $145.12 |
2001 | $276.50 | $65.20 |
2000 | $272.65 | $40.97 |
Among the largest companies on the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index, Colorado-based Newmont has experienced a 24% drop in its share price over the past year. Similarly, Canadian Barrick Gold also saw a decline of 6.5% over the past 12 months.
Real Assets
200 Years of Global Gold Production, by Country
Global gold production has grown exponentially since the 1800s, with 86% of all above-ground gold mined in the last 200 years.
Visualizing Global Gold Production Over 200 Years
Although the practice of gold mining has been around for thousands of years, it’s estimated that roughly 86% of all above-ground gold was extracted in the last 200 years.
With modern mining techniques making large-scale production possible, global gold production has grown exponentially since the 1800s.
The above infographic uses data from Our World in Data to visualize global gold production by country from 1820 to 2022, showing how gold mining has evolved to become increasingly global over time.
A Brief History of Gold Mining
The best-known gold rush in modern history occurred in California in 1848, when James Marshall discovered gold in Sacramento Valley. As word spread, thousands of migrants flocked to California in search of gold, and by 1855, miners had extracted around $2 billion worth of gold.
The United States, Australia, and Russia were (interchangeably) the three largest gold producers until the 1890s. Then, South Africa took the helm thanks to the massive discovery in the Witwatersrand Basin, now regarded today as one of the world’s greatest ever goldfields.
South Africa’s annual gold production peaked in 1970 at 1,002 tonnes—by far the largest amount of gold produced by any country in a year.
With the price of gold rising since the 1980s, global gold production has become increasingly widespread. By 2007, China was the world’s largest gold-producing nation, and today a significant quantity of gold is being mined in over 40 countries.
The Top Gold-Producing Countries in 2022
Around 31% of the world’s gold production in 2022 came from three countries—China, Russia, and Australia, with each producing over 300 tonnes of the precious metal.
Rank | Country | 2022E Gold Production, tonnes | % of Total |
---|---|---|---|
#1 | 🇨🇳 China | 330 | 11% |
#2 | 🇷🇺 Russia | 320 | 10% |
#3 | 🇦🇺 Australia | 320 | 10% |
#4 | 🇨🇦 Canada | 220 | 7% |
#5 | 🇺🇸 United States | 170 | 5% |
#6 | 🇲🇽 Mexico | 120 | 4% |
#7 | 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan | 120 | 4% |
#8 | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 110 | 4% |
#9 | 🇵🇪 Peru | 100 | 3% |
#10 | 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 100 | 3% |
#11 | 🇬🇭 Ghana | 90 | 3% |
#12 | 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 70 | 2% |
- | 🌍 Rest of the World | 1,030 | 33% |
- | World Total | 3,100 | 100% |
North American countries Canada, the U.S., and Mexico round out the top six gold producers, collectively making up 16% of the global total. The state of Nevada alone accounted for 72% of U.S. production, hosting the world’s largest gold mining complex (including six mines) owned by Nevada Gold Mines.
Meanwhile, South Africa produced 110 tonnes of gold in 2022, down by 74% relative to its output of 430 tonnes in 2000. This long-term decline is the result of mine closures, maturing assets, and industrial conflict, according to the World Gold Council.
Interestingly, two smaller gold producers on the list, Uzbekistan and Indonesia, host the second and third-largest gold mining operations in the world, respectively.
The Outlook for Global Gold Production
As of April 25, gold prices were hovering around the $2,000 per ounce mark and nearing all-time highs. For mining companies, higher gold prices can mean more profits per ounce if costs remain unaffected.
According to the World Gold Council, mined gold production is expected to increase in 2023 and could surpass the record set in 2018 (3,300 tonnes), led by the expansion of existing projects in North America. The chances of record mine output could be higher if gold prices continue to increase.
-
Electrification3 years ago
Ranked: The Top 10 EV Battery Manufacturers
-
Electrification2 years ago
The Key Minerals in an EV Battery
-
Real Assets3 years ago
The World’s Top 10 Gold Mining Companies
-
Misc3 years ago
All the Metals We Mined in One Visualization
-
Electrification3 years ago
The Biggest Mining Companies in the World in 2021
-
Energy Shift2 years ago
What Are the Five Major Types of Renewable Energy?
-
Electrification2 years ago
Mapped: Solar Power by Country in 2021
-
Electrification2 years ago
The World’s Largest Nickel Mining Companies