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Visualizing the Life Cycle of a Mineral Discovery

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Visualizing the Life Cycle of a Mineral Discovery

Visualizing the Life Cycle of a Mineral Discovery

Mining legend Pierre Lassonde knows a little bit about mineral exploration, discovery, and development. Drawing from decades of his experience, he created the chart above that has become a staple in the mining industry—the Lassonde Curve.

Today’s chart of the Lassonde Curve outlines the life of mining companies from exploration to production, and highlights the work and market value associated with each stage. This helps speculative investors understand the mining process, and time their investments properly.

Making Cents of Miners: The Stages of a Mineral Discovery

In the life cycle of a mineral deposit, there are seven stages that each offer specific risks and rewards. As a company proves there is a mineable deposit in the ground, more value is created for shareholders along the way.

  1. Concept

    This stage carries the most risk which accounts for its low value. In the beginning, there is little knowledge of what actually lies beneath the Earth’s surface.

    At this stage, geologists are putting to the test a theory about where metal deposits are. They will survey the land using geochemical and sampling techniques to improve the confidence of this theory. Once this is complete, they can move onto more extensive exploration.

  2. Pre-Discovery

    There is still plenty of risk, but this is where speculation hype begins. As the drill bit meets the ground, mineral exploration geologists develop their knowledge of what lies beneath the Earth’s crust to assess mineral potential.

    Mineral exploration involves retrieving a cross-section (drill core) of the crust, and then analyzing it for mineral content. A drill core containing sufficient amounts of metals can encourage further exploration, which may lead to the discovery of a mineable deposit.

  3. Discovery

    Discovery is the reward stage for early speculators. Exploration has revealed that there is a significant amount of material to be mined, and it warrants further study to prove that mining would be feasible. Most speculators exit here, as the next stage creates a new set of risks, such as profitability, construction, and financing.

  4. Feasibility

    This is an important milestone for a mineral discovery. Studies conducted during this stage may demonstrate the deposit’s potential to become a profitable mine.

    Institutional and strategic investors can then use these studies to evaluate whether they want to advance this project. Speculators often invest during this time, known as the “Orphan Period”, while uncertainty about the project lingers.

  5. Development

    Development is a rare moment, and most mineral deposits never make it to this stage. At this point, the company puts together a production plan for the mine.

    First, they must secure funding and build an operational team. If a company can secure funding for development, investors can see the potential of revenue from mining. However, risks still persist in the form of construction, budget, and timelines.

  6. Startup/Production

    Investors who have held their investment until this point can pat themselves on the back—this is a rare moment for a mineral discovery. The company is now processing ore and generating revenue.

    Investment analysts will re-rate this deposit, to help it attract more attention from institutional investors and the general public. Meanwhile, existing investors can choose to exit here or wait for potential increases in revenues and dividends.

  7. Depletion

    Nothing lasts forever, especially scarce mineral resources. Unless, there are more deposits nearby, most mines are eventually depleted. With it, so does the value of the company. Investors should be looking for an exit as operations wind down.

Case Study: The Oyu Tolgoi Copper-Gold Discovery, Mongolia

So now that you know the theoretical value cycle of a mineral discovery, how does it pan out in reality? The Oyu Tolgoi copper deposit is one recent discovery that has gone through this value cycle. It exemplifies some of these events and their effects on the share price of a company.

    1. Concept: 15+ Years

      Prospectors conducted early exploration work in the 1980s near where Oyu Tolgoi would be discovered. It was not until 1996 that Australian miner BHP conducted further exploration.

      But after 21 drill holes, the company lost interest and optioned the property to mining entrepreneur Robert Friedland and his company Ivanhoe Mines. At this point in 1999, shares in Ivanhoe were a gamble.

    2. Pre-Discovery/Discovery: ~3 years

      Ivanhoe Mines and BHP entered into an earn-in agreement, in which Ivanhoe gained ownership by completing work to explore Oyu Tolgoi. A year later, the first drill results came out of drill hole 150 with a headline result of 508 meters of 1.1 g/t Au and 0.8%. To get a sense of how large this is, imagine the height a 45-story building, of which a third of story is copper. This was just one intersection of an area that could stretch for miles.

      Wild speculation began at this stage, as steadily improving drill results proved a massive copper-gold deposit in Mongolia and drove up the share price of Ivanhoe.

    3. Feasibility/Orphan Period: ~2 years

      In 2004, the drilling results contributed to the development of the first scoping study. This study offered a preliminary understanding of the project’s economics.

      Using this study, the company needed to secure enough money to build a mine to extract the valuable ore. It was not until two years later, when Ivanhoe Mines entered into an agreement with major mining company Rio Tinto, that a production decision was finalized.

    4. Development: 7 years

      By 2006, the Oyu Tolgoi mineral deposit was in the development phase with the first shaft headframe, hoisting frame, and associated infrastructure completed. It took another two years for the shaft to reach a depth of 1,385 feet.

      Further development work delineated a resource of 1.2 billion pounds of copper, 650,000 ounces of gold, and 3 million ounces of silver. This first stage of development for Oyu Tolgoi made Mongolia the world’s fastest growing economy from 2009 to 2011.

    5. Startup/Production: Ongoing

      On January 31, 2013, the company announced it had produced the first copper-gold concentrate from Oyu Tolgoi. Six months later, the company stated that it was processing up to 70,000 tonnes of ore daily.

    6. Depletion: Into the Future

      The Oyu Tolgoi deposit will last generations, so we have yet to see how this will affect the value of the mine from an investment perspective.

      It’s also worth noting there are still other risks ahead. These risks can include labor disruptions, mining method problems, or commodity price movement. Investors will have to consider these additional conditions as they pan out.

The More You Know

Mining is one of the riskiest investments with many risks to consider at every stage.

While most mineral discoveries do not match it perfectly, the Lassonde Curve guides an investor through what to expect at each stage, and empowers them to time their investments right.

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Real Assets

How Much Gold is in Fort Knox?

The United States Bullion Depository holds more than half of the Treasury’s $428B in gold reserves.

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In this graphic we compare Fort Knox’s gold reserves with central bank gold reserves worldwide.

How Much Gold Is in Fort Knox?

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to visit Fort Knox “to make sure the gold is there.”

Officially, the United States Bullion Depository (commonly known as Fort Knox) holds over half of the Treasury’s $428 billion gold reserves.

In this graphic, we put that amount into perspective by comparing Fort Knox’s reserves with central bank gold reserves worldwide. The data comes from the U.S. Mint and the World Gold Council. For illustrative purposes, we considered a pallet of 1,190 gold bars (400 troy ounces each) weighing approximately 14.8 tonnes.

What Is Fort Knox?

Located in Kentucky, Fort Knox is a U.S. Army installation that serves as the primary storage site for America’s gold reserves. The facility was established in the 1930s to protect gold from potential foreign attacks.

The first gold shipment arrived in 1937 via U.S. Mail from the Philadelphia Mint and the New York Assay Office. During World War II, Fort Knox safeguarded important U.S. documents, including the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and the Bill of Rights. It has also housed international treasures, such as the Magna Carta and the crown, sword, scepter, orb, and cape of St. Stephen, King of Hungary, before they were returned in 1978.

Currently, it holds 4,175 tonnes of gold, equivalent to nearly half of China’s gold reserves and four times the Swiss central bank’s reserves.

ReservesGold (Tonnes)
🇺🇸 U.S. Reserves8,133
🏛️ Fort Knox4,175
🇨🇳 China2,280
🇯🇵 Japan846
🇨🇭 Switzerland1,040
🇮🇳 India876
🇰🇷 South Korea104
🇸🇬 Singapore220
🇧🇷 Brazil130
🇲🇽 Mexico120
🇹🇭 Thailand235

Only small samples have been removed for purity testing during audits; no major transfers have occurred for years.

Gold Bar Specifications

  • Size: 7 inches × 3 5/8 inches × 1 3/4 inches
  • Weight: 400 ounces (27.5 pounds)

Extreme Security

Only a select few know the full security procedures, and no single person knows how to fully open the vault.

In 1974, a group of journalists and a Congressional delegation were allowed inside—marking the first official visit since Fort Knox’s creation. Previously, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was the only person other than authorized personnel to access the vaults.

In 2017, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin, and several Congressional representatives became the second group to visit the vault.

Learn More on the Voronoi App 

If gold was shared equally, how much would you get? Check out this graphic to find out.

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Charted: Top Suppliers of Aluminum and Steel to the U.S.

President Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports.

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Charted: Top U.S. Suppliers of Aluminum and Steel

Charted: Top U.S. Suppliers of Aluminum and Steel

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, marking one of the most discussed measures of his first month back in the White House.

But which countries are most affected by these tariffs?

This map illustrates the top suppliers of aluminum and steel to the United States in 2024. The data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau. Aluminum includes unwrought aluminum, plates, sheets, and strips; bars, rods, and profiles; foil; wire; pipes and tubes; castings and forgings; and tube or pipe fittings. 

Canada: The Largest Partner

Canada is by far the top supplier of both steel and aluminum to the United States. The neighboring country exported $9.4 billion worth of aluminum to the U.S. in 2024, significantly ahead of the second-largest exporter, the European Union, which exported $1.5 billion.

Canada also exported $7.1 billion worth of steel last year, compared to $7 billion from the European Union.

CountrySteel Imports (USD)Aluminum Imports (USD)
🇨🇦 Canada$7.1B$9.4B
🇲🇽 Mexico$3.5B$397M
🇧🇷 Brazil$3.0B-
🇨🇳 China$799M$809M
🇹🇼 Taiwan$1.3B-
🇰🇷 South Korea$2.9B$781M
🇩🇪 Germany$1.9B$318M
🇯🇵 Japan$1.7B-
🇮🇳 India$489M$445M
🇪🇺 European Union$7B$1.5B
🇦🇪 UAE-$917M
🇧🇭 Bahrain-$535M
🇦🇷 Argentina-$468M
🇹🇭 Thailand-$271M
🇬🇧 UK$440M-

Mexico, South Korea, and Brazil are also among the top suppliers of steel to the United States. Meanwhile, the country imports aluminum from other key partners, including China, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Bahrain, and Argentina.

A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted that the U.S. produces less than 2% of the world’s primary aluminum.

Learn More on the Voronoi App 

If you enjoyed this graphic, be sure to check out this chart illustrating the GDP impact of Trump’s tariffs on China.

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