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How the World’s Top Gold Mining Stocks Performed in 2020

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How the World's Top Gold Mining Stocks Performed in 2020

How Top Gold Mining Stocks Performed in 2020

Gold mining stocks and the GDX saw strong returns in 2020 as gold was one of the most resilient and best performing assets in a highly volatile year.

But picking gold mining stocks isn’t easy, as each company has a variety of individual projects and risks worth assessing. This is why the GDX (VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF), is one of the most popular methods investors choose to get exposure to players in the gold mining industry.

While the GDX and gold miners can generally offer leveraged upside compared to gold during bull markets, in 2020 the GDX returned 23%, just a couple of points shy from spot gold’s 25.1% return.

This graphic compares the returns of gold, the GDX, and the best and worst performing gold mining equities in the index.

Understanding the GDX ETF and its Value

The GDX is one of many index ETFs created by investment management firm VanEck and offers exposure to 52 of the top gold mining stocks.

It provides a straightforward way to invest in the largest names in the gold mining industry, while cutting down on some of the individual risks that many mining companies are exposed to. The GDX is VanEck’s largest and most popular ETF averaging ~$25M in volume every day, with the largest amount of total net assets at $15.3B.

In terms of its holdings, the GDX attempts to replicate the returns of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM), which tracks the overall performance of companies in the gold mining industry.

How the Largest Gold Miners Performed in 2020

As a market-cap weighted ETF, the GDX allocates more assets towards constituents with a higher market cap, resulting in larger gold mining companies making up more of the index’s holdings.

This results in the five largest companies in the GDX making up 39.5% of the index’s holdings, and the top 10 making up 59.3%.

An equally-weighted index of the top five GDX constituents returned 27.3% for the year, outperforming gold and the index by a few points. Meanwhile, an equally-weighted index of the top 10 constituents significantly underperformed, only returning 18.4%.

Newmont was the only company of the top five which outperformed gold and the overall index, returning 37.8% for the year. Wheaton Precious Metals (40.3%) and Kinross Gold (54.9%) were the only other companies in the top 10 that managed to outperform.

Kinross Gold was the best performer among the top constituents largely due to its strong Q3 results, where the company generated significant free cash flow while quadrupling reported net earnings. Along with these positive results, the company also announced its expectation to increase gold production by 20% over the next three years.

The Best and Worst Performers in 2020

Among the best and worst performers of the GDX, it was the smaller-sized companies in the bottom half of the ranking which either significantly over- or underperformed.

K92 Mining’s record gold production from their Kainantu gold mine, along with a significant resource increase at their high-grade Kora deposit nearby saw a return of 164.2%, with the company graduating from the TSX-V to the TSX at the end of 2020.

Four of the five worst performers for 2020 were Australian mining companies as the country entered its first recession in 30 years after severe COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions. Bushfires early in the year disrupted shipments from Newcrest’s Cadia mine, and rising tensions with China (Australia’s largest trading partner) also contributed to double-digit drawdowns for some Australian gold miners.

The worst performer and last-ranked company in the index, Resolute Mining (-36.9%), had further disruptions in H2’2020 at their Syama gold mine in Mali. The military coup and resignation of Mali’s president Ibrahim Keïta in August was followed by unionized workers threatening strikes in September, slowing operations at Syama gold mine. Outright strikes eventually occurred before year’s end.

How Gold Mining Stocks are Chosen for the GDX

There are some ground rules which dictate how the index is weighted to ensure the GDM and GDX properly reflect the gold mining industry.

Along with the rules on the index’s weighting, there are company-specific requirements for inclusion into the GDM, and as a result the GDX:

  • Derive >50% of revenues from gold mining and related activities
  • Market capitalization >$750M
  • Average daily volume >50,000 shares over the past three months
  • Average daily value traded >$1M over the past three months

Gold mining stocks already in the index have some leeway regarding these requirements, and ultimately inclusion or exclusion from the index us up to the Index Administrator.

What 2021 Will Bring for Gold Mining Stocks

The GDX has had a muted start to the new year, with the index at -2.3% as it has mostly followed spot gold’s price.

Gold and gold mining stocks cooled off significantly following their strong rally Q1-Q3’2020, as positive developments regarding the COVID-19 vaccine have resulted in a stronger-than-expected U.S. dollar and a rise in treasury yields.

This being said, the arrival of new monetary stimulus in the U.S. could spur inflation-fearing investors towards gold and gold mining stocks as the year progresses.

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Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar Over Time

$1 in 1913 had the same purchasing power as $26 in 2020. This chart shows how the purchasing power of the dollar has changed over time.

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purchasing power of the dollar

What is Purchasing Power?

The purchasing power of a currency is the amount of goods and services that can be bought with one unit of the currency.

For example, one U.S. dollar could buy 10 bottles of beer in 1933. Today, it’s the cost of a small McDonald’s coffee. In other words, the purchasing power of the dollar—its value in terms of what it can buy—has decreased over time as price levels have risen.

Tracking the Purchasing Power of the Dollar

In 1913, the Federal Reserve Act granted Federal Reserve banks the ability to manage the money supply in order to ensure economic stability. Back then, a dollar could buy 30 Hershey’s chocolate bars.

As more dollars came into circulation, average prices of goods and services increased while the purchasing power of the dollar fell. By 1929, the value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 73% higher than in 1913, but a dollar was now enough only for 10 rolls of toilet paper.

Year EventPurchasing Power of $1What a Dollar Buys
1913Creation of the Federal Reserve System$26.1430 Hershey’s chocolate bars
1929Stock market crash$15.1410 rolls of toilet paper
1933Gold possession criminalized$19.9110 bottles of beer
1944Bretton Woods agreement$14.7120 bottles of Coca-Cola
1953End of the Korean War$9.6910 bags of pretzels
1964Escalation of the Vietnam War$8.351 drive-in movie ticket
1971End of the gold standard$6.3917 oranges
1987"Black Monday" stock market crash$2.282 boxes of crayons
1997Asian financial crisis$1.614 grapefruits
2008Global Financial crisis$1.202 lemons
2020COVID-19 pandemic$1.001 McDonald’s coffee

Between 1929-1933, the purchasing power of the dollar actually increased due to deflation and a 31% contraction in money supply before eventually declining again. Fast forward to 1944 and the U.S. dollar, fixed to gold at a rate of $35/oz, became the world’s reserve currency under the Bretton Woods agreement.

Meanwhile, the U.S. increased its money supply in order to finance the deficits of World War II followed by the Korean war and the Vietnam war. Hence, the buying power of the dollar reduced from 20 bottles of Coca-Cola in 1944 to a drive-in movie ticket in 1964.

By the late 1960s, the number of dollars in circulation was too high to be backed by U.S. gold reserves. President Nixon ceased direct convertibility of U.S. dollars to gold in 1971. This ended both the gold standard and the limit on the amount of currency that could be printed.

More Dollars in the System

Money supply (M2) in the U.S. has skyrocketed over the last two decades, up from $4.6 trillion in 2000 to $19.5 trillion in 2021.

The effects of the rise in money supply were amplified by the financial crisis of 2008 and more recently by the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, around 20% of all U.S. dollars in the money supply, $3.4 trillion, were created in 2020 alone.

How will the purchasing power of the dollar evolve going forward?

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Getting Gold Exposure: Bullion vs. ETFs vs. Mining Stocks

There are various investment methods to get gold exposure. Whether it’s gold bullion, ETFs, or mining stocks, which one works best for you?

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How to Get Gold Exposure in Your Portfolio, Explained

A lot of talking heads say, “Buy gold!” but don’t really explain exactly how to buy gold or get exposure to the precious metal.

There are options when it comes to getting exposure to the precious metal, and each one has upsides and downsides worth being mindful of.

Whether you’re interested in holding physical gold in a safe storage space or simply want to add some gold exposure to your investment portfolio, this infographic shows you the differences between gold bullion, gold ETFs, and gold mining stocks.

What to Consider Before Investing in Gold

There are some key considerations to be aware of before you begin investing.

While below are some of the main factors to keep in mind as you pick a gold investment method, be sure to research each method and its properties thoroughly before investing.

Downside and Volatility Risk

The first consideration for any kind of investment should always be how much drawdown you’re willing to stomach before pulling your money out.

When the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a price drop across the board for just about every kind of asset, the price of physical gold and gold-backed ETFs held up very differently compared to individual gold mining stocks and gold mining indices.

Case Study: Gold vs. Mining Stocks Drawdown and Returns

AssetDrawdown from March high to March lowReturns from March low to 2020 high
Spot gold and gold ETFs-14.8%42.9%
Barrick Gold Corporation-42.1%146.8%
Gold Miners ETF (GDX)-46.0%182.9%
Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)-52.7%237.9%

While physical gold and bullion ETFs (which track gold’s price movements) tend to be more resilient during market downturns, they also offer less upside compared to gold mining stocks and indices during bull markets.

Junior miners or exploration companies offer the greatest volatility and potential upside, but carry the highest risk. When investing in any mining company, concrete results from their planning and drilling along with efficient execution in setting up projects and production will best determine the stock’s valuation.

Active vs. Passive Management

Some investors like to actively manage their investments while others prefer a more passive “set and forget” approach.

Each approach has its merits, however, gold ETFs and mining stocks are better suited for more active investors, while shipping and transport costs for physical gold can add up if buying and selling frequently.

Determine whether you’re going to be actively managing your gold exposure or if you’re going to be letting your investment sit for a while. This way you can determine the best method to reduce fees and commissions.

Three Types of Gold Exposure: Pros and Cons

Now, let’s dive into the three main types of gold exposure: gold bullion, gold ETFs, and gold mining stocks and ETFs.

1. Gold Bullion

If you’re looking to purchase physical gold in the form of bullion, there are a lot of considerations to keep in mind. These range from the various fees you’ll pay to where and how you’ll be storing and protecting your gold.

Many bullion dealers offer storage as a service, reducing shipping costs and the extra work of finding somewhere secure to keep your gold.

Fixed Position Sizes and Liquidity

When buying gold bullion it’s important to remember that you are buying coins, bars, or ingots of gold. This means that if you’re looking to sell off half of your gold position but only have a single 1oz gold coin, you won’t be able to!

Due to this, gold bullion might not be the best option for those interested in actively managing their exposure or for those with smaller amounts of capital.

Buying and Selling Commissions

Just about every gold dealer will charge commissions on any buying or selling, which are typically <1% of the value of the order with lower commissions for larger volumes. Some dealers include their commissions as a premium directly onto their prices.

Storage Costs

Storing gold bullion with gold dealers or storage services will incur yearly storage costs that are typically a percentage of your holdings.

While some storage providers have low percentages, they will often have minimum monthly or yearly storage fees. For investors purchasing small amounts of gold it’s important to not let these fees eat up too much of your investment.

  • Fees range from 0.12% to 1.5% annually, with some storage services providing fee discounts for larger volumes of gold
  • While purchases of investment-grade bullion are tax-exempt, taxes are charged on storage fees.

Reputable gold storage services offer full insurance coverage on your bullion stored with them and will keep your gold physically separate from the company’s gold and off the company balance sheet. Some will even provide customers extra peace of mind with pictures of their bullion, typically for an additional cost.

Withdrawal Commissions and Shipping

If you’ve been storing your gold with a dealer but want it closer to home, you’ll have to pay withdrawal commissions along with shipping costs. Some dealers charge a flat rate per bullion or withdrawal, while others charge a percentage of your holdings.

If you’re having bullion sent to you without storing it at the dealer, you’ll just pay for shipping and insurance. These are typically flat fees along with a percentage of the dollar value of your order (ranging from 0.4% to 7.5% depending on the amount and types of bullion).

Before holding your gold privately it’s important to know:

  • Privately held gold is sometimes not fully trusted when sold back to bullion markets, and can lose some of its value.
  • Privately held gold is usually less physically safe compared to gold in a vault, and is almost always more expensive to insure.

2. Gold ETFs

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a more approachable option to get exposure to gold for those with some experience purchasing shares using online brokers and exchanges.

Gold ETFs enable investors to have exposure to gold’s price while avoiding storage, shipping, and insurance fees. There are also fewer liquidity bottlenecks and tighter spreads with gold ETFs compared to gold bullion.

When buying gold ETFs it is important to remember that in most cases, you never actually own any physical gold. Even though these funds are backed by physical gold, you cannot redeem your shares in exchange for gold.

  • Buying and Selling Commissions: When buying or selling shares of an ETF you’ll likely pay commissions. These commissions are decided by the brokerages and are typically below $10 per buy and sell order, with some brokerages offering commission-free trading to cut costs for active traders.
  • Expense Ratios: Similar to storage fees on gold bullion kept in a vault, gold ETFs charge a yearly expense ratio to cover the costs of management and operations. Expense ratios are typically quite low, ranging from 0.17% to 0.75%, and are taken directly from your investment.

3. Gold Mining Stocks and ETFs

Gold mining stocks and mining ETFs are the most distant from physical gold, and offer exposure to the operating profits, losses, or even discoveries of mining or exploration companies.

Mining ETFs (like the GDX and GDXJ) are a basket of mining stocks for purchase as a single share, helping spread out the operational and concentration risk of investing in a single mining company. Mining ETFs are typically less volatile than individual mining stocks, but can still offer increased returns compared to gold bullion and gold ETFs.

Similar to gold ETFs, mining stocks and mining ETFs have:

  • Buying and selling commissions decided by your online brokerage
  • Annual expense ratios for mining ETFs
  • Potential for dividends depending on the individual mining stock

If buying individual gold stocks, it is important to know that the prospects of any one company can differ incredibly. For this reason, it’s crucial to invest in quality companies, and to have an understanding at factors at play such as management competence, jurisdiction, or project quality and economics.

Find a Gold Investment Method that Works Best for You

Be aware that the methods discussed in this article aren’t the only ways to invest in gold.

If you’re willing to learn a bit more about contract structures and more complex fee structures, look into gold futures contracts. For those with some options understanding and experience, buying call options is another way to get gold exposure. Rare coins and jewelry are another investment method that also carries some artistic value.

Whatever you pick, make sure to thoroughly research your investment, its transaction and price mechanisms, and the commissions and fees you’ll be paying.

All of the investment methods discussed have differing tax implications depending on where you reside, which could influence your decision on how you invest in gold.

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