Electrification
Electric Car Companies: Visualizing the Race for EV Dominance
Electric Car Companies: Eating Tesla’s Dust
Tesla has reigned supreme among electric car companies, ever since it first released the Roadster back in 2008.
The California-based company headed by Elon Musk ended 2020 with 23% of the EV market and recently became the first automaker to hit a $1 trillion market capitalization. However, competitors like Volkswagen hope to accelerate their own EV efforts to unseat Musk’s company as the dominant manufacturer.
This graphic based on data from EV Volumes compares Tesla and other top carmakers’ positions today—from an all-electric perspective—and gives market share projections for 2025.
Auto Majors Playing Catch-up
According to Wood Mackenzie, Volkswagen will become the largest manufacturer of EVs before 2030. In order to achieve this, the world’s second-biggest carmaker is in talks with suppliers to secure direct access to the raw materials for batteries.
It also plans to build six battery factories in Europe by 2030 and to invest globally in charging stations. Still, according to EV Volumes projections, by 2025 the German company is forecasted to have only 12% of the market versus Tesla’s 21%.
Company | Sales 2020 | Sales 2025 (projections) | Market cap (Oct '21, USD) |
---|---|---|---|
Tesla | 499,000 | 2.8M | $1.023T |
Volkswagen Group | 230,000 | 1.5M | $170B |
BYD | 136,000 | 377,000 | $113B |
SGMW (GM, Wulling Motors, SAIC) | 211,000 | 1.1M | $89B |
BMW | 48,000 | 455,000 | $67B |
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz) | 55,000 | 483,000 | $103B |
Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi | 191,000 | 606,000 | $39B |
Geely | 40,000 | 382,000 | $34B |
Hyundai -Kia | 145,000 | 750,000 | $112B |
Stellantis | 82,000 | 931,000 | $63B |
Toyota | 11,000 | 382,000 | $240B |
Ford | 1,400 | 282,000 | $63B |
Other auto giants are following the same track towards EV adoption.
GM, the largest U.S. automaker, wants to stop selling fuel-burning cars by 2035. The company is making a big push into pure electric vehicles, with more than 30 new models expected by 2025.
Meanwhile, Ford expects 40% of its vehicles sold to be electric by the year 2030. The American carmaker has laid out plans to invest tens of billions of dollars in electric and autonomous vehicle efforts in the coming years.
Tesla’s Brand: A Secret Weapon
When it comes to electric car company brand awareness in the marketplace, Tesla still surpasses all others. In fact, more than one-fourth of shoppers who are considering an EV said Tesla is their top choice.
“They’ve done a wonderful job at presenting themselves as the innovative leader of electric vehicles and therefore, this is translating high awareness among consumers…”
—Rachelle Petusky, Research at Cox Automotive Mobility Group
Tesla recently surpassed Audi as the fourth-largest luxury car brand in the United States in 2020. It is now just behind BMW, Lexus, and Mercedes-Benz.
The Dominance of Electric Car Companies by 2040
BloombergNEF expects annual passenger EV sales to reach 13 million in 2025, 28 million in 2030, and 48 million by 2040, outselling gasoline and diesel models (42 million).
As the EV market continues to grow globally, competitors hope to take a run at Tesla’s lead—or at least stay in the race.
Electrification
Visualizing the EU’s Critical Minerals Gap by 2030
This graphic underscores the scale of the challenge the bloc faces in strengthening its critical mineral supply by 2030.
Visualizing EU’s Critical Minerals Gap by 2030
The European Union’s Critical Raw Material Act sets out several ambitious goals to enhance the resilience of its critical mineral supply chains.
The Act includes non-binding targets for the EU to build sufficient mining capacity so that mines within the bloc can meet 10% of its critical mineral demand.
Additionally, the Act establishes a goal for 40% of demand to be met by processing within the bloc, and 25% through recycling.
Several months after the Act’s passage in May 2024, this graphic highlights the scale of the challenge the EU aims to overcome. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of July 2024. The graphic excludes synthetic graphite.
Securing Europe’s Supply of Critical Materials
With the exception of nickel mining, none of the battery minerals deemed strategic by the EU are on track to meet these goals.
Graphite, the largest mineral component used in batteries, is of particular concern. There is no EU-mined supply of manganese ore or coke, the precursor to synthetic graphite.
By 2030, the European Union is expected to supply 16,000 tonnes of flake graphite locally, compared to the 45,000 tonnes it would need to meet the 10% mining target.
Metal | 2030 Demand (tonnes) | Mining (F) | Processing (F) | Recycling (F) | Mining Target | Processing Target | Recycling Target |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lithium | 459K | 29K | 46K | 25K | 46K | 184K | 115K |
Nickel | 403K | 42K | 123K | 25K | 40K | 161K | 101K |
Cobalt | 94K | 1K | 19K | 6K | 9K | 37K | 23K |
Manganese | 147K | 0K | 21K | 5K | 15K | 59K | 37K |
Flake Graphite | 453K | 16K | 17K | N/A | 45K | 86K | N/A |
The EU is also expected to mine 29,000 tonnes of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) compared to the 46,000 tonnes needed to meet the 10% target.
In terms of mineral processing, the bloc is expected to process 25% of its lithium requirements, 76% of nickel, 51% of cobalt, 36% of manganese, and 20% of flake graphite.
The EU is expected to recycle only 22% of its lithium needs, 25% of nickel, 26% of cobalt, and 14% of manganese. Graphite, meanwhile, is not widely recycled on a commercial scale.
Electrification
Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030
Chinese companies are expected to control 46% of the cobalt supply by 2030.
Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030
Chinese dominance over critical minerals used in technologies like smartphones, electric vehicles (EVs), and solar power has become a growing concern for the U.S. and other Western countries.
Currently, China refines 68% of the world’s nickel, 40% of copper, 59% of lithium, and 73% of cobalt, and is continuing to expand its mining operations.
This graphic visualizes the total cobalt supply from the top 10 producers in 2030, highlighting China’s dominance. The data comes from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of July 2024.
Cobalt production (tonnes) | Non-Chinese Owned Production | Chinese Owned Production | 2030F (Total) | 2030F (Share) |
---|---|---|---|---|
🇨🇩 DRC | 94,989 | 109,159 | 204,148 | 67.9% |
🇮🇩 Indonesia | 23,288 | 25,591 | 48,879 | 16.3% |
🇦🇺 Australia | 7,070 | 0 | 7,070 | 2.4% |
🇵🇭 Philippines | 5,270 | 0 | 5,270 | 1.8% |
🇷🇺 Russia | 4,838 | 0 | 4,838 | 1.6% |
🇨🇦 Canada | 4,510 | 0 | 4,510 | 1.5% |
🇨🇺 Cuba | 4,496 | 0 | 4,496 | 1.5% |
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | 541 | 3,067 | 3,608 | 1.2% |
🇹🇷 Turkey | 2,835 | 0 | 2,835 | 0.9% |
🇳🇨 New Caledonia | 2,799 | 0 | 2,799 | 0.9% |
🌍 ROW | 10,336 | 1,901 | 12,237 | 4.1% |
Total | 160,974 | 139,718 | 300,692 | 100.0% |
China’s Footprint in Africa
Cobalt is a critical mineral with a wide range of commercial, industrial, and military applications. It has gained significant attention in recent years due to its use in battery production. Today, the EV sector accounts for 40% of the global cobalt market.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) currently produces 74% of the world’s cobalt supply. Although cobalt deposits exist in regions like Australia, Europe, and Asia, the DRC holds the largest reserves by far.
China is the world’s leading consumer of cobalt, with nearly 87% of its cobalt consumption dedicated to the lithium-ion battery industry.
Although Chinese companies hold stakes in only three of the top 10 cobalt-producing countries, they control over half of the cobalt production in the DRC and Indonesia, and 85% of the output in Papua New Guinea.
Given the DRC’s large share of global cobalt production, many Chinese companies have expanded their presence in the country, acquiring projects and forming partnerships with the Congolese government.
According to Benchmark, Chinese companies are expected to control 46% of the global cobalt mined supply by 2030, a 3% increase from 2023.
By 2030, the top 10 cobalt-producing countries will account for 96% of the total mined supply, with just two countries—the DRC and Indonesia—contributing 84% of the total.
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