Electrification
Charted: 4 Reasons Why Lithium Could Be the Next Gold Rush
The following content is sponsored by the EnergyX
4 Reasons Why You Should Invest in Lithium
Lithium’s importance in powering EVs makes it a linchpin of the clean energy transition and one of the world’s most precious minerals.
In this graphic, Visual Capitalist partnered with EnergyX to explore why now may be the time to invest in lithium.
1. Lithium Prices Have Dropped
One of the most critical aspects of evaluating an investment is ensuring that the asset’s value is higher than its price would indicate. Lithium is integral to powering EVs, and, prices have fallen fast over the last year:
Date | LiOH·H₂O* | Li₂CO₃** |
---|---|---|
Feb 2023 | $76 | $71 |
March 2023 | $71 | $61 |
Apr 2023 | $43 | $33 |
May 2023 | $43 | $33 |
June 2023 | $47 | $45 |
July 2023 | $44 | $40 |
Aug 2023 | $35 | $35 |
Sept 2023 | $28 | $27 |
Oct 2023 | $24 | $23 |
Nov 2023 | $21 | $21 |
Dec 2023 | $17 | $16 |
Jan 2024 | $14 | $15 |
Feb 2024 | $13 | $14 |
Note: Monthly spot prices were taken as close to the 14th of each month as possible.
*Lithium hydroxide monohydrate (MB-LI-0033)
**Lithium carbonate (MB-LI-0029)
2. Lithium-Ion Battery Prices Are Also Falling
The drop in lithium prices is just one reason to invest in the metal. Increasing economies of scale, coupled with low commodity prices, have caused the cost of lithium-ion batteries to drop significantly as well.
In fact, BNEF reports that between 2013 and 2023, the price of a Li-ion battery dropped by 82%.
Year | Price per KWh |
---|---|
2023 | $139 |
2022 | $161 |
2021 | $150 |
2020 | $160 |
2019 | $183 |
2018 | $211 |
2017 | $258 |
2016 | $345 |
2015 | $448 |
2014 | $692 |
2013 | $780 |
3. EV Adoption is Sustainable
One of the best reasons to invest in lithium is that EVs, one of the main drivers behind the demand for lithium, have reached a price point similar to that of traditional vehicle.
According to the Kelly Blue Book, Tesla’s average transaction price dropped by 25% between 2022 and 2023, bringing it in line with many other major manufacturers and showing that EVs are a realistic transport option from a consumer price perspective.
Manufacturer | September 2022 | September 2023 |
---|---|---|
BMW | $69,000 | $72,000 |
Ford | $54,000 | $56,000 |
Volkswagon | $54,000 | $56,000 |
General Motors | $52,000 | $53,000 |
Tesla | $68,000 | $51,000 |
4. Electricity Demand in Transport is Growing
As EVs become an accessible transport option, there’s an investment opportunity in lithium. But possibly the best reason to invest in lithium is that the IEA reports global demand for the electricity in transport could grow dramatically by 2030:
Transport Type | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 |
---|---|---|---|
Buses 🚌 | 23,000 GWh | 50,000 GWh | 130,000 GWh |
Cars 🚙 | 65,000 GWh | 200,000 GWh | 570,000 GWh |
Trucks 🛻 | 4,000 GWh | 15,000 GWh | 94,000 GWh |
Vans 🚐 | 6,000 GWh | 16,000 GWh | 72,000 GWh |
The Lithium Investment Opportunity
Lithium presents a potentially classic investment opportunity. Lithium and battery prices have dropped significantly, and recently, EVs have reached a price point similar to other vehicles. By 2030, the demand for clean energy, especially in transport, will grow dramatically.
With prices dropping and demand skyrocketing, now is the time to invest in lithium.
EnergyX is poised to exploit lithium demand with cutting-edge lithium extraction technology capable of extracting 300% more lithium than current processes.
Electrification
Ranked: The Top Lithium-Ion Battery Producing Countries by 2030
Chinese companies are expected to hold nearly 70% of global battery capacity by decade’s end.
Top Lithium-Ion Battery Producers by 2030
Lithium-ion batteries are essential for a clean economy due to their high energy density and efficiency. They power most portable consumer electronics, such as cell phones and laptops, and are used in the majority of today’s electric vehicles.
This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to rank the top lithium-ion battery producing countries by their forecasted capacity (measured in gigawatt-hours or GWh) in 2030.
China to Keep Dominance
Chinese companies are expected to account for nearly 70% of global battery capacity by 2030, delivering over 6,200 gigawatt-hours. Chinese giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) alone is forecasted to produce more than the combined output from Canada, France, Hungary, Germany, and the UK.
Country | 2030F capacity (GWh) | Top producers |
---|---|---|
🇨🇳 China | 6,268.3 | CATL, BYD, CALB |
🇺🇸 U.S. | 1,260.6 | Tesla, LGES, SK On |
🇩🇪 Germany | 261.8 | Tesla, Northvolt, VW |
🇭🇺 Hungary | 210.1 | CATL, SK On, Samsung |
🇨🇦 Canada | 203.8 | Northvolt, LGES, VW |
🇫🇷 France | 162.0 | Verkor, Prologium, ACC |
🇰🇷 South Korea | 94.5 | LGES, Samsung, SK On |
🇬🇧 UK | 66.9 | Envision, Tata |
Currently, China is home to six of the world’s 10 biggest battery makers. China’s battery dominance is driven by its vertical integration across the entire EV supply chain, from mining metals to producing EVs.
By 2030, the U.S. is expected to be second in battery capacity after China, with 1,261 gigawatt-hours, led by LG Energy Solution and Tesla.
In Europe, Germany is forecasted to lead in lithium-ion battery production, with 262 gigawatt-hours, most of it coming from Tesla. The company currently operates its Giga Berlin plant in the country, Tesla’s first manufacturing location in Europe.
Learn More About Batteries From Visual Capitalist
If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out Charted: Investment Needed to Meet Battery Demand by 2040. This visualization shows the total capital expenditure (capex) requirements to build capacity to meet future battery demand by 2030 and 2040.
Electrification
Visualizing the Growth of Chinese Copper Miners
Chinese miners are set to overtake major producers by 2025.
Visualizing the Growth of Chinese Copper Miners
China, with its huge manufacturing sector, is by far the biggest consumer of copper.
Currently, 70% of copper used in China is imported. As a result, the country has invested heavily in copper mines to secure future supply.
This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to compare copper output from the top three global producers with Chinese miners. Since some of the mining operations have shared ownership, this graphic takes into consideration only the portion of production relative to the company’s stake in each mine.
Chinese Miners Set to Overtake Major Producers by 2025
In 2010, Chinese miners produced a total of 1.2 million tonnes of copper. In that same year, the top producer, Chilean state miner Codelco, produced 1.8 million tonnes, while the world’s largest miner and second-largest copper producer, BHP, produced 1 million tonnes.
Over the years, however, Chinese output has surged while major miners have faced challenges. In 2023, Codelco’s production fell to its lowest level in a quarter of a century due to operational problems and project delays.
Year/millions of tonnes | Zijin | CMOC | MMG | Tongling | Other China | BHP | Freeport | Codelco |
2010 | 0.059 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.007 | 1.090 | 1.021 | 0.979 | 1.760 |
2011 | 0.061 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.956 | 0.959 | 0.959 | 1.796 |
2012 | 0.082 | 0.000 | 0.046 | 0.007 | 1.070 | 1.070 | 0.975 | 1.805 |
2013 | 0.104 | 0.003 | 0.184 | 0.007 | 1.530 | 1.129 | 1.046 | 1.791 |
2014 | 0.116 | 0.014 | 0.149 | 0.007 | 1.753 | 1.126 | 1.074 | 1.841 |
2015 | 0.126 | 0.040 | 0.199 | 0.007 | 1.810 | 1.085 | 1.230 | 1.891 |
2016 | 0.134 | 0.047 | 0.374 | 0.007 | 1.984 | 1.023 | 1.388 | 1.827 |
2017 | 0.178 | 0.155 | 0.422 | 0.011 | 1.978 | 0.995 | 1.222 | 1.842 |
2018 | 0.212 | 0.127 | 0.383 | 0.019 | 1.967 | 1.161 | 1.239 | 1.807 |
2019 | 0.299 | 0.140 | 0.315 | 0.031 | 2.046 | 1.197 | 1.104 | 1.706 |
2020 | 0.377 | 0.173 | 0.272 | 0.066 | 2.290 | 1.147 | 1.081 | 1.727 |
2021 | 0.518 | 0.192 | 0.235 | 0.093 | 2.378 | 1.068 | 1.328 | 1.728 |
2022 | 0.750 | 0.226 | 0.214 | 0.123 | 2.440 | 1.180 | 1.327 | 1.553 |
2023F | 0.828 | 0.329 | 0.236 | 0.134 | 2.298 | 1.283 | 1.302 | 1.442 |
2024F | 0.886 | 0.460 | 0.301 | 0.121 | 2.421 | 1.423 | 1.421 | 1.414 |
2025F | 0.980 | 0.467 | 0.309 | 0.158 | 2.441 | 1.471 | 1.342 | 1.531 |
2026F | 1.031 | 0.467 | 0.332 | 0.206 | 2.477 | 1.513 | 1.369 | 1.591 |
2027F | 1.036 | 0.568 | 0.332 | 0.255 | 2.467 | 1.383 | 1.345 | 1.600 |
2028F | 1.058 | 0.698 | 0.332 | 0.255 | 2.467 | 1.186 | 1.286 | 1.580 |
Meanwhile, China’s biggest copper producer, Zijin Mining, saw its production rise from 0.059 million tonnes in 2010 to 0.8 million tonnes last year.
Combined, Chinese companies produced 3.2 million tonnes of copper in 2023, compared to the combined production of 4 million tonnes by Codelco, Freeport-McMoRan (the biggest copper producer in the U.S.), and BHP.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data, Chinese miners are forecasted to surpass the three top producers in 2025, with a combined production of 4.4 million tonnes compared to 4.3 million tonnes from Codelco, BHP, and Freeport.
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