Electrification
Visualizing the Supply Deficit of Battery Minerals (2024-2034P)
Visualizing the Supply Deficit of Battery Minerals (2024-2034P)
The world currently produces a surplus of key battery minerals, but this is projected to shift to a significant deficit over the next 10 years.
This graphic illustrates this change, driven primarily by growing battery demand. The data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of November 2024.
Minerals in a Lithium-Ion Battery Cathode
Minerals make up the bulk of materials used to produce parts within the cell, ensuring the flow of electrical current:
- Lithium: Acts as the primary charge carrier, enabling energy storage and transfer within the battery.
- Cobalt: Stabilizes the cathode structure, improving battery lifespan and performance.
- Nickel: Boosts energy density, allowing batteries to store more energy.
- Manganese: Enhances thermal stability and safety, reducing overheating risks.
The cells in an average battery with a 60 kilowatt-hour (kWh) capacity—the same size used in a Chevy Bolt—contain roughly 185 kilograms of minerals.
Battery Demand Forecast
Due to the growing demand for these materials, their production and mining have increased exponentially in recent years, led by China. In this scenario, all the metals shown in the graphic currently experience a surplus.
In the long term, however, with the greater adoption of batteries and other renewable energy technologies, projections indicate that all these minerals will enter a deficit.
For example, lithium demand is expected to more than triple by 2034, resulting in a projected deficit of 572,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). According to Benchmark analysis, the lithium industry would need over $40 billion in investment to meet demand by 2030.
| Metric | Lithium (in tonnes LCE) | Nickel (in tonnes) | Cobalt (in tonnes) | Manganese (in tonnes) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Demand | 1,103,000 | 3,440,000 | 230,000 | 119,000 |
| 2024 Surplus | 88,000 | 117,000 | 24,000 | 11,000 |
| 2034 Demand | 3,758,000 | 6,082,000 | 468,000 | 650,000 |
| 2034 Deficit | -572,000 | -839,000 | -91,000 | -307,000 |
Nickel demand, on the other hand, is expected to almost double, leading to a deficit of 839,000 tonnes by 2034. The surge in demand is attributed primarily to the rise of mid- and high-performance electric vehicles (EVs) in Western markets.
Electrification
Charted: Battery Capacity by Country (2024-2030)
This graphic compares battery capacity by cathode type across major countries.
Charted: Battery Capacity by Country (2024-2030)
As the global energy transition accelerates, battery demand continues to soar—along with competition between battery chemistries.
According to the International Energy Agency, in 2024, electric vehicle sales rose by 25% to 17 million, pushing annual battery demand past 1 terawatt-hour (TWh)—a historic milestone.
This graphic, using exclusive data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (as of February 2025), compares battery capacity by cathode type across major countries. It focuses on the two dominant chemistries: Nickel Cobalt Manganese (NCM) and Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP).
Understanding Cathode Chemistries
Batteries store and release energy through the movement of lithium ions. The cathode—a key electrode—determines a battery’s cost, range, and thermal performance.
NCM
- Offers higher energy density and better performance in cold climates, but is more expensive and has a shorter lifespan.
LFP
- Known for its lower cost and improved thermal stability, though it delivers a shorter driving range and adds weight.
As of now, LFP cathodes make up 40% of the EV market in terms of gigawatt-hours (GWh).
Beyond passenger vehicles, LFP batteries are widely used in systems that undergo frequent charging and discharging—like residential and grid-scale energy storage—where added weight isn’t a major concern. They’re also ideal for daily-use applications such as buses and delivery fleets.
Regional Market Trends
In China, LFP is already dominant, accounting for 64% of the market in 2024. By 2030, that figure is projected to grow to 76%, driven by a focus on affordability in the world’s largest EV market. Notably, over 70% of all EV batteries ever manufactured have been produced in China, contributing to deep manufacturing expertise.
| Region/Country | Year | % NCM | % LFP | % Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 2024 | 27% | 64% | 8% |
| North America | 2024 | 71% | 7% | 22% |
| Europe | 2024 | 69% | 8% | 24% |
| South Korea | 2024 | 62% | 4% | 35% |
| Japan | 2024 | 58% | 0% | 42% |
Outside of China, NCM remains the leading chemistry due to consumer demand for longer range and premium performance.
North America – NCM holds a 71% share in 2024, with a slight decline to 69% forecasted for 2030.
Europe – NCM’s share is expected to grow from 69% in 2024 to 71% by 2030.
South Korea and Japan – Both countries show similar trends, with NCM gaining share as LFP remains limited or absent.
Electrification
Top 20 Countries by Battery Storage Capacity
China holds about two-thirds of global BESS capacity.
Visualizing the Top 20 Countries by Battery Storage Capacity
Over the past three years, the Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) market has been the fastest-growing segment of global battery demand. These systems store electricity using batteries, helping stabilize the grid, store renewable energy, and provide backup power.
In 2024, the market grew by 52%, compared to 25% growth in the EV battery market. Among the top companies in the BESS market are technology giants such as Samsung, LG, BYD, Panasonic, and Tesla.
This graphic highlights the top 20 BESS markets by current and planned grid capacity in gigawatt hour (GWh), based on exclusive data from Rho Motion as of February 2025.
Chinese Dominance
As with the EV market, China currently dominates global BESS deployments, accounting for approximately two-thirds of installed capacity. However, other markets are expected to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by low-cost lithium-ion cells and the expansion of renewable energy capacity.
Currently, China has 215.5 GWh of installed capacity and an ambitious 505.6 GWh project pipeline. The U.S. follows with 82.1 GWh installed and 162.5 GWh planned.
| Top BESS Markets | Installed 2024 (GWh) | 2027P |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | 215.5 | 721.2 |
| 🇺🇸 USA | 82.1 | 244.6 |
| 🇬🇧 UK | 7.5 | 56.3 |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 5.6 | 102.9 |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | 3.8 | 41.0 |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 2.2 | 7.9 |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 1.3 | 32.4 |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 1.3 | 9.4 |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| 🇵🇭 Philippines | 1.0 | 6.1 |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 1.0 | 5.0 |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 1.0 | 6.2 |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | 0.8 | 4.6 |
| 🇫🇷 France | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 0.7 | 5.3 |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 0.6 | 5.9 |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| 🇮🇳 India | 0.5 | 4.3 |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 0.3 | 18.3 |
Canada is projected to be the fastest-growing market through 2027, with its cumulative capacity hitting 18.3 GWh—a significant increase from its current 0.3 GWh capacity.
Countries such as Australia (97.3 GWh pipeline), Saudi Arabia (31.1 GWh), and Chile (37.2 GWh) have relatively small current installations but plan substantial expansions. Within Europe, the UK leads with 7.5 GWh of installed capacity and 48.7 GWh in the pipeline, while Italy, Germany, France, and Belgium show steady but more modest growth.
Despite being technological leaders, Japan (4 GWh pipeline) and South Korea (0.3 GWh) have relatively low planned BESS expansions.
According to Rho Motion, China will remain the dominant player in 2027, but its share of the total market is expected to decline to just over 50% based on the current project pipeline.
While the BESS market is expanding, challenges remain, including grid connection bottlenecks and the development of revenue streams in emerging markets.
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