Electrification
Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030
Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030
Chinese dominance over critical minerals used in technologies like smartphones, electric vehicles (EVs), and solar power has become a growing concern for the U.S. and other Western countries.
Currently, China refines 68% of the world’s nickel, 40% of copper, 59% of lithium, and 73% of cobalt, and is continuing to expand its mining operations.
This graphic visualizes the total cobalt supply from the top 10 producers in 2030, highlighting China’s dominance. The data comes from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of July 2024.
| Cobalt production (tonnes) | Non-Chinese Owned Production | Chinese Owned Production | 2030F (Total) | 2030F (Share) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇩 DRC | 94,989 | 109,159 | 204,148 | 67.9% |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 23,288 | 25,591 | 48,879 | 16.3% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 7,070 | 0 | 7,070 | 2.4% |
| 🇵🇭 Philippines | 5,270 | 0 | 5,270 | 1.8% |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | 4,838 | 0 | 4,838 | 1.6% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 4,510 | 0 | 4,510 | 1.5% |
| 🇨🇺 Cuba | 4,496 | 0 | 4,496 | 1.5% |
| 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | 541 | 3,067 | 3,608 | 1.2% |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 2,835 | 0 | 2,835 | 0.9% |
| 🇳🇨 New Caledonia | 2,799 | 0 | 2,799 | 0.9% |
| 🌍 ROW | 10,336 | 1,901 | 12,237 | 4.1% |
| Total | 160,974 | 139,718 | 300,692 | 100.0% |
China’s Footprint in Africa
Cobalt is a critical mineral with a wide range of commercial, industrial, and military applications. It has gained significant attention in recent years due to its use in battery production. Today, the EV sector accounts for 40% of the global cobalt market.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) currently produces 74% of the world’s cobalt supply. Although cobalt deposits exist in regions like Australia, Europe, and Asia, the DRC holds the largest reserves by far.
China is the world’s leading consumer of cobalt, with nearly 87% of its cobalt consumption dedicated to the lithium-ion battery industry.
Although Chinese companies hold stakes in only three of the top 10 cobalt-producing countries, they control over half of the cobalt production in the DRC and Indonesia, and 85% of the output in Papua New Guinea.
Given the DRC’s large share of global cobalt production, many Chinese companies have expanded their presence in the country, acquiring projects and forming partnerships with the Congolese government.
According to Benchmark, Chinese companies are expected to control 46% of the global cobalt mined supply by 2030, a 3% increase from 2023.
By 2030, the top 10 cobalt-producing countries will account for 96% of the total mined supply, with just two countries—the DRC and Indonesia—contributing 84% of the total.
Electrification
Charted: Battery Capacity by Country (2024-2030)
This graphic compares battery capacity by cathode type across major countries.
Charted: Battery Capacity by Country (2024-2030)
As the global energy transition accelerates, battery demand continues to soar—along with competition between battery chemistries.
According to the International Energy Agency, in 2024, electric vehicle sales rose by 25% to 17 million, pushing annual battery demand past 1 terawatt-hour (TWh)—a historic milestone.
This graphic, using exclusive data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (as of February 2025), compares battery capacity by cathode type across major countries. It focuses on the two dominant chemistries: Nickel Cobalt Manganese (NCM) and Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP).
Understanding Cathode Chemistries
Batteries store and release energy through the movement of lithium ions. The cathode—a key electrode—determines a battery’s cost, range, and thermal performance.
NCM
- Offers higher energy density and better performance in cold climates, but is more expensive and has a shorter lifespan.
LFP
- Known for its lower cost and improved thermal stability, though it delivers a shorter driving range and adds weight.
As of now, LFP cathodes make up 40% of the EV market in terms of gigawatt-hours (GWh).
Beyond passenger vehicles, LFP batteries are widely used in systems that undergo frequent charging and discharging—like residential and grid-scale energy storage—where added weight isn’t a major concern. They’re also ideal for daily-use applications such as buses and delivery fleets.
Regional Market Trends
In China, LFP is already dominant, accounting for 64% of the market in 2024. By 2030, that figure is projected to grow to 76%, driven by a focus on affordability in the world’s largest EV market. Notably, over 70% of all EV batteries ever manufactured have been produced in China, contributing to deep manufacturing expertise.
| Region/Country | Year | % NCM | % LFP | % Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 2024 | 27% | 64% | 8% |
| North America | 2024 | 71% | 7% | 22% |
| Europe | 2024 | 69% | 8% | 24% |
| South Korea | 2024 | 62% | 4% | 35% |
| Japan | 2024 | 58% | 0% | 42% |
Outside of China, NCM remains the leading chemistry due to consumer demand for longer range and premium performance.
North America – NCM holds a 71% share in 2024, with a slight decline to 69% forecasted for 2030.
Europe – NCM’s share is expected to grow from 69% in 2024 to 71% by 2030.
South Korea and Japan – Both countries show similar trends, with NCM gaining share as LFP remains limited or absent.
Electrification
Top 20 Countries by Battery Storage Capacity
China holds about two-thirds of global BESS capacity.
Visualizing the Top 20 Countries by Battery Storage Capacity
Over the past three years, the Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) market has been the fastest-growing segment of global battery demand. These systems store electricity using batteries, helping stabilize the grid, store renewable energy, and provide backup power.
In 2024, the market grew by 52%, compared to 25% growth in the EV battery market. Among the top companies in the BESS market are technology giants such as Samsung, LG, BYD, Panasonic, and Tesla.
This graphic highlights the top 20 BESS markets by current and planned grid capacity in gigawatt hour (GWh), based on exclusive data from Rho Motion as of February 2025.
Chinese Dominance
As with the EV market, China currently dominates global BESS deployments, accounting for approximately two-thirds of installed capacity. However, other markets are expected to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by low-cost lithium-ion cells and the expansion of renewable energy capacity.
Currently, China has 215.5 GWh of installed capacity and an ambitious 505.6 GWh project pipeline. The U.S. follows with 82.1 GWh installed and 162.5 GWh planned.
| Top BESS Markets | Installed 2024 (GWh) | 2027P |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | 215.5 | 721.2 |
| 🇺🇸 USA | 82.1 | 244.6 |
| 🇬🇧 UK | 7.5 | 56.3 |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 5.6 | 102.9 |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | 3.8 | 41.0 |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 2.2 | 7.9 |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 1.3 | 32.4 |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 1.3 | 9.4 |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| 🇵🇭 Philippines | 1.0 | 6.1 |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 1.0 | 5.0 |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 1.0 | 6.2 |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | 0.8 | 4.6 |
| 🇫🇷 France | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 0.7 | 5.3 |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 0.6 | 5.9 |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| 🇮🇳 India | 0.5 | 4.3 |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 0.3 | 18.3 |
Canada is projected to be the fastest-growing market through 2027, with its cumulative capacity hitting 18.3 GWh—a significant increase from its current 0.3 GWh capacity.
Countries such as Australia (97.3 GWh pipeline), Saudi Arabia (31.1 GWh), and Chile (37.2 GWh) have relatively small current installations but plan substantial expansions. Within Europe, the UK leads with 7.5 GWh of installed capacity and 48.7 GWh in the pipeline, while Italy, Germany, France, and Belgium show steady but more modest growth.
Despite being technological leaders, Japan (4 GWh pipeline) and South Korea (0.3 GWh) have relatively low planned BESS expansions.
According to Rho Motion, China will remain the dominant player in 2027, but its share of the total market is expected to decline to just over 50% based on the current project pipeline.
While the BESS market is expanding, challenges remain, including grid connection bottlenecks and the development of revenue streams in emerging markets.
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