Electrification
Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030
Visualizing China’s Cobalt Supply Dominance by 2030
Chinese dominance over critical minerals used in technologies like smartphones, electric vehicles (EVs), and solar power has become a growing concern for the U.S. and other Western countries.
Currently, China refines 68% of the world’s nickel, 40% of copper, 59% of lithium, and 73% of cobalt, and is continuing to expand its mining operations.
This graphic visualizes the total cobalt supply from the top 10 producers in 2030, highlighting China’s dominance. The data comes from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of July 2024.
| Cobalt production (tonnes) | Non-Chinese Owned Production | Chinese Owned Production | 2030F (Total) | 2030F (Share) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇩 DRC | 94,989 | 109,159 | 204,148 | 67.9% |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 23,288 | 25,591 | 48,879 | 16.3% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 7,070 | 0 | 7,070 | 2.4% |
| 🇵🇭 Philippines | 5,270 | 0 | 5,270 | 1.8% |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | 4,838 | 0 | 4,838 | 1.6% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 4,510 | 0 | 4,510 | 1.5% |
| 🇨🇺 Cuba | 4,496 | 0 | 4,496 | 1.5% |
| 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | 541 | 3,067 | 3,608 | 1.2% |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 2,835 | 0 | 2,835 | 0.9% |
| 🇳🇨 New Caledonia | 2,799 | 0 | 2,799 | 0.9% |
| 🌍 ROW | 10,336 | 1,901 | 12,237 | 4.1% |
| Total | 160,974 | 139,718 | 300,692 | 100.0% |
China’s Footprint in Africa
Cobalt is a critical mineral with a wide range of commercial, industrial, and military applications. It has gained significant attention in recent years due to its use in battery production. Today, the EV sector accounts for 40% of the global cobalt market.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) currently produces 74% of the world’s cobalt supply. Although cobalt deposits exist in regions like Australia, Europe, and Asia, the DRC holds the largest reserves by far.
China is the world’s leading consumer of cobalt, with nearly 87% of its cobalt consumption dedicated to the lithium-ion battery industry.
Although Chinese companies hold stakes in only three of the top 10 cobalt-producing countries, they control over half of the cobalt production in the DRC and Indonesia, and 85% of the output in Papua New Guinea.
Given the DRC’s large share of global cobalt production, many Chinese companies have expanded their presence in the country, acquiring projects and forming partnerships with the Congolese government.
According to Benchmark, Chinese companies are expected to control 46% of the global cobalt mined supply by 2030, a 3% increase from 2023.
By 2030, the top 10 cobalt-producing countries will account for 96% of the total mined supply, with just two countries—the DRC and Indonesia—contributing 84% of the total.
Electrification
Visualizing the Supply Deficit of Battery Minerals (2024-2034P)
A surplus of key metals is expected to shift to a major deficit within a decade.
Visualizing the Supply Deficit of Battery Minerals (2024-2034P)
The world currently produces a surplus of key battery minerals, but this is projected to shift to a significant deficit over the next 10 years.
This graphic illustrates this change, driven primarily by growing battery demand. The data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of November 2024.
Minerals in a Lithium-Ion Battery Cathode
Minerals make up the bulk of materials used to produce parts within the cell, ensuring the flow of electrical current:
- Lithium: Acts as the primary charge carrier, enabling energy storage and transfer within the battery.
- Cobalt: Stabilizes the cathode structure, improving battery lifespan and performance.
- Nickel: Boosts energy density, allowing batteries to store more energy.
- Manganese: Enhances thermal stability and safety, reducing overheating risks.
The cells in an average battery with a 60 kilowatt-hour (kWh) capacity—the same size used in a Chevy Bolt—contain roughly 185 kilograms of minerals.
Battery Demand Forecast
Due to the growing demand for these materials, their production and mining have increased exponentially in recent years, led by China. In this scenario, all the metals shown in the graphic currently experience a surplus.
In the long term, however, with the greater adoption of batteries and other renewable energy technologies, projections indicate that all these minerals will enter a deficit.
For example, lithium demand is expected to more than triple by 2034, resulting in a projected deficit of 572,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). According to Benchmark analysis, the lithium industry would need over $40 billion in investment to meet demand by 2030.
| Metric | Lithium (in tonnes LCE) | Nickel (in tonnes) | Cobalt (in tonnes) | Manganese (in tonnes) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Demand | 1,103,000 | 3,440,000 | 230,000 | 119,000 |
| 2024 Surplus | 88,000 | 117,000 | 24,000 | 11,000 |
| 2034 Demand | 3,758,000 | 6,082,000 | 468,000 | 650,000 |
| 2034 Deficit | -572,000 | -839,000 | -91,000 | -307,000 |
Nickel demand, on the other hand, is expected to almost double, leading to a deficit of 839,000 tonnes by 2034. The surge in demand is attributed primarily to the rise of mid- and high-performance electric vehicles (EVs) in Western markets.
Electrification
Visualizing the EU’s Critical Minerals Gap by 2030
This graphic underscores the scale of the challenge the bloc faces in strengthening its critical mineral supply by 2030.
Visualizing EU’s Critical Minerals Gap by 2030
The European Union’s Critical Raw Material Act sets out several ambitious goals to enhance the resilience of its critical mineral supply chains.
The Act includes non-binding targets for the EU to build sufficient mining capacity so that mines within the bloc can meet 10% of its critical mineral demand.
Additionally, the Act establishes a goal for 40% of demand to be met by processing within the bloc, and 25% through recycling.
Several months after the Act’s passage in May 2024, this graphic highlights the scale of the challenge the EU aims to overcome. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of July 2024. The graphic excludes synthetic graphite.
Securing Europe’s Supply of Critical Materials
With the exception of nickel mining, none of the battery minerals deemed strategic by the EU are on track to meet these goals.
Graphite, the largest mineral component used in batteries, is of particular concern. There is no EU-mined supply of manganese ore or coke, the precursor to synthetic graphite.
By 2030, the European Union is expected to supply 16,000 tonnes of flake graphite locally, compared to the 45,000 tonnes it would need to meet the 10% mining target.
| Metal | 2030 Demand (tonnes) | Mining (F) | Processing (F) | Recycling (F) | Mining Target | Processing Target | Recycling Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium | 459K | 29K | 46K | 25K | 46K | 184K | 115K |
| Nickel | 403K | 42K | 123K | 25K | 40K | 161K | 101K |
| Cobalt | 94K | 1K | 19K | 6K | 9K | 37K | 23K |
| Manganese | 147K | 0K | 21K | 5K | 15K | 59K | 37K |
| Flake Graphite | 453K | 16K | 17K | N/A | 45K | 86K | N/A |
The EU is also expected to mine 29,000 tonnes of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) compared to the 46,000 tonnes needed to meet the 10% target.
In terms of mineral processing, the bloc is expected to process 25% of its lithium requirements, 76% of nickel, 51% of cobalt, 36% of manganese, and 20% of flake graphite.
The EU is expected to recycle only 22% of its lithium needs, 25% of nickel, 26% of cobalt, and 14% of manganese. Graphite, meanwhile, is not widely recycled on a commercial scale.
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