Visualizing EU’s Critical Minerals Gap by 2030

The European Union’s Critical Raw Material Act sets out several ambitious goals to enhance the resilience of its critical mineral supply chains.

The Act includes non-binding targets for the EU to build sufficient mining capacity so that mines within the bloc can meet 10% of its critical mineral demand.

Additionally, the Act establishes a goal for 40% of demand to be met by processing within the bloc, and 25% through recycling.

Several months after the Act’s passage in May 2024, this graphic highlights the scale of the challenge the EU aims to overcome. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of July 2024. The graphic excludes synthetic graphite.

Securing Europe’s Supply of Critical Materials

With the exception of nickel mining, none of the battery minerals deemed strategic by the EU are on track to meet these goals.

Graphite, the largest mineral component used in batteries, is of particular concern. There is no EU-mined supply of manganese ore or coke, the precursor to synthetic graphite.

By 2030, the European Union is expected to supply 16,000 tonnes of flake graphite locally, compared to the 45,000 tonnes it would need to meet the 10% mining target.

The EU is also expected to mine 29,000 tonnes of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) compared to the 46,000 tonnes needed to meet the 10% target.

In terms of mineral processing, the bloc is expected to process 25% of its lithium requirements, 76% of nickel, 51% of cobalt, 36% of manganese, and 20% of flake graphite.

The EU is expected to recycle only 22% of its lithium needs, 25% of nickel, 26% of cobalt, and 14% of manganese. Graphite, meanwhile, is not widely recycled on a commercial scale.

Lithium-Ion Batteries Keep Getting Cheaper

Battery metal prices have struggled as a surge in new production overwhelmed demand, coinciding with a slowdown in electric vehicle adoption.

Lithium prices, for example, have plummeted nearly 90% since the late 2022 peak, leading to mine closures and impacting the price of lithium-ion batteries used in EVs.

This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner Benchmark Mineral Intelligence to show the evolution of lithium-ion battery prices over the last 10 years.

More than Half of the Battery Price Comes from the Cathode

Lithium-ion batteries operate by collecting current and directing it into the battery during the charging process. Typically, a graphite anode attracts lithium ions and retains them as a charge.

During discharge, the cathode draws the stored lithium ions and channels them to another current collector. The circuit functions effectively because the anode and cathode do not come into direct contact and are suspended in a medium that facilitates the easy flow of ions.

Currently, 54% of the cell price comes from the cathode, 18% from the anode, and 28% from other components.

Declining Prices

The average price of lithium-ion battery cells dropped from $290 per kilowatt-hour in 2014 to $103 in 2023.

In the coming months, prices are expected to drop further due to oversupply from China.

Despite declining prices, battery demand is projected to increase ninefold by 2040, with the battery industry’s total capital expenditure expected to nearly triple, rising from $567 billion in 2030 to $1.6 trillion in 2040.

Lithium ion Battery Market Size	Global Capacity (Gigawatt hour)
2016	163
2017	219
2018	353
2019	496
2020	710
2021	1026
2022	1652
2023	2555
2024F	3476

Learn More About Batteries From Visual Capitalist

If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out this graphic that ranks the top lithium-ion battery producing countries by their forecasted capacity in 2030.