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Energy Shift

Visualizing Changes in CO₂ Emissions Since 1900

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Global-Co2-Emissions-since-1900

Visualizing CO₂ Emissions Since 1900

Leaders from all over the world are currently gathering at the Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC (COP 27) in Egypt to discuss climate action, and to negotiate the commitments being made by countries to the global climate agenda.

This visualization based on data from the Global Carbon Project shows the changes in global fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from 1900 to 2020, putting the challenge of fighting climate change into perspective.

Cumulative CO₂ Emissions vs. Rate of Change

Global climate change is primarily caused by carbon dioxide emissions. Fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas release large amounts of CO₂ when burned or used in industrial processes.

Before the Industrial Revolution (1760-1840), emissions were very low. However, with the increased use of fossil fuels to power machines, emissions rose to 6 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year globally by 1950. The amount had almost quadrupled by 1990, reaching a rate of over 22 billion tonnes per year.

Currently, the world emits over 34 billion tonnes of CO₂ each year. Since 1751, the world has emitted over 1.5 trillion tonnes of CO₂ cumulatively.

Cumulative CO2 emissions

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, average global growth in fossil CO₂ emissions had slowed to 0.9% annually during the 2010s, reaching 36.7 gigatons of CO₂ added to the atmosphere in 2019.

However, in 2020, global lockdowns led to the biggest decrease in CO₂ emissions ever seen in absolute terms. Global fossil CO₂ emissions decreased by 5.2% to 34.8 gigatons, mainly due to halts in aviation, surface transport, power generation, and manufacturing during the pandemic.

Since then, emissions have approached pre-pandemic levels, reaching 36.2 gigatons added to the atmosphere in 2021.

Biggest Emitters, by Country

Asia, led by China, is the largest emitter, with the continent accounting for more than half of global emissions.

RankCountry 2020 CO₂ Emissions
(Millions of metric tons)
#1🇨🇳 China 10,668
#2🇺🇸 United States4,713
#3🇮🇳 India 2,442
#4🇷🇺 Russia 1,577
#5🇯🇵 Japan 1,031
#6🇮🇷 Iran745
#7🇩🇪 Germany644
#8🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia626
#9🇰🇷 South Korea598
#10🇮🇩 Indonesia590
#11🇨🇦 Canada536
#12🇧🇷 Brazil467
#13🇿🇦 South Africa 452
#14🇹🇷 Turkey 393
#15🇦🇺 Australia 392

CO₂ emissions from developing economies already account for more than two-thirds of global emissions, while emissions from advanced economies are in a structural decline.

Coal Power Generation Set for Record Increase

To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, more than 130 countries have now set or are considering a target of reducing emissions to net zero by 2050.

Much of the slowdown in emissions growth in the 2010s was attributable to the substitution of coal—the fuel that contributes most to planet-warming emissions—with gas and renewables. In addition, during the previous COP26 held in Glasgow, 40 nations agreed to phase coal out of their energy mixes.

Despite that, in 2021, coal-fired electricity generation reached all-time highs globally and is set for a new record in 2022 as consumption surged in Europe to replace shortfalls in hydro, nuclear, and Russian natural gas.

As leaders meet in Egypt for the world’s largest gathering on climate action, it will be up to them to come up with a plan for making their environmental aspirations a reality.

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Electrification

Where are Clean Energy Technologies Manufactured?

As the market for low-emission solutions expands, China dominates the production of clean energy technologies and their components.

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Visualizing Where Clean Energy Technologies Are Manufactured

When looking at where clean energy technologies and their components are made, one thing is very clear: China dominates the industry.

The country, along with the rest of the Asia Pacific region, accounts for approximately 75% of global manufacturing capacity across seven clean energy technologies.

Based on the IEA’s 2023 Energy Technology Perspectives report, the visualization above breaks down global manufacturing capacity by region for mass-manufactured clean energy technologies, including onshore and offshore wind, solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, electric vehicles (EVs), fuel cell trucks, heat pumps, and electrolyzers.

The State of Global Manufacturing Capacity

Manufacturing capacity refers to the maximum amount of goods or products a facility can produce within a specific period. It is determined by several factors, including:

  • The size of the manufacturing facility
  • The number of machines or production lines available
  • The skill level of the workforce
  • The availability of raw materials

According to the IEA, the global manufacturing capacity for clean energy technologies may periodically exceed short-term production needs. Currently this is true especially for EV batteries, fuel cell trucks, and electrolyzers. For example, while only 900 fuel cell trucks were sold globally in 2021, the aggregate self-reported capacity by manufacturers was 14,000 trucks.

With that said, there still needs to be a significant increase in manufacturing capacity in the coming decades if demand aligns with the IEA’s 2050 net-zero emissions scenario. Such developments require investments in new equipment and technology, developing the clean energy workforce, access to raw and refined materials, and optimizing production processes to improve efficiency.

What Gives China the Advantage?

Of the above clean energy technologies and their components, China averages 65% of global manufacturing capacity. For certain components, like solar PV wafers, this percentage is as high as 96%.

Here’s a breakdown of China’s manufacturing capacity per clean energy technology.

Technology China’s share of global manufacturing capacity, 2021
Wind (Offshore)70%
Wind (Onshore) 59%
Solar PV Systems85%
Electric Vehicles71%
Fuel Cell Trucks 47%
Heat Pumps39%
Electrolyzers41%

So, what gives China this advantage in the clean energy technology sector? According to the IEA report, the answer lies in a combination of factors:

The mixture of these factors has allowed China to capture a significant share of the global market for clean technologies while driving down the cost of clean energy worldwide.

As the market for low-emission solutions expands, China’s dominance in the sector will likely continue in the coming years and have notable implications for the global energy and emission landscape.

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Energy Shift

The ESG Challenges for Transition Metals

Can energy transition metals markets ramp up production to satisfy demand while meeting ever-more stringent ESG requirements?

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The ESG Challenges for Transition Metals

An accelerated energy transition is needed to respond to climate change.

According to the Paris Agreement, 196 countries have already committed to limiting global warming to below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C. However, changing the energy system after over a century of burning fossil fuels comes with challenges.

In the above graphic from our sponsor Wood Mackenzie, we discuss the challenges that come with the increasing demand for transition metals.

Building Blocks of a Decarbonized World

Mined commodities like lithium, cobalt, graphite and rare earths are critical to producing electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, and other technologies necessary to burn fewer fossil fuels and reduce overall carbon emissions.

EVs, for example, can have up to six times more minerals than a combustion vehicle.

As a result, the extraction and refining of these metals will need to be expedited to limit the rise of global temperatures.

Here’s the outlook for different metals under Wood Mackenzie’s Accelerated Energy Transition (AET) scenario, in which the world is on course to limit the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times to 1.5°C by the end of this century.

MetalDemand Outlook (%) 2025203020352040
Lithium +260%+520%+780%+940%
Cobalt +170%+210%+240%+270%
Graphite+320%+660%+940%+1100%
Neodymium+170%+210%+240%+260%
Dysprosium+120%+160%+180%+200%

Graphite demand is expected to soar 1,100% by 2040, as demand for lithium is expected to jump 940% over this time.

A Challenge to Satisfy the Demand for Lithium

Lithium-ion batteries are indispensable for transport electrification and are also commonly used in cell phones, laptop computers, cordless power tools, and other devices.

Lithium demand in an AET scenario is estimated to reach 6.7 million tons by 2050, nine times more than 2022 levels.

In the same scenario, EV sales will double by 2030, making the demand for Li-ion batteries quadruple by 2050.

The ESG Challenge with Cobalt

Another metal in high demand is cobalt, used in rechargeable batteries in smartphones and laptops and also in lithium-ion batteries for vehicles.

Increasing production comes with significant environmental and social risks, as cobalt reserves and mine production are concentrated in regions and countries with substantial ESG problems.

Currently, 70% of mined cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where nearly three-quarters of the population lives in extreme poverty.

Country2021 Production (Tonnes)
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo120,000
🇦🇺 Australia5,600
🇵🇭 Philippines4,500
🇨🇦 Canada4,300
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea3,000
🇲🇬 Madagascar2,500
🇲🇦 Morocco2,300
🇨🇳 China2,200
🇨🇺 Cuba2,200
🇷🇺 Russia2,200
🇮🇩 Indonesia 2,100
🇺🇸 U.S.700

Around one-fifth of cobalt mined in the DRC comes from small-scale artisanal mines, many of which rely on child labor.

Considering other obstacles like rising costs due to reserve depletion and surging resource nationalism, a shortfall in the cobalt market can emerge as early as 2024, according to Wood Mackenzie. Battery recycling, if fully utilised, can ease the upcoming supply shortage, but it cannot fill the entire gap.


Rare Earths: Winners and Losers

Rare earths are used in EVs and wind turbines but also in petroleum refining and gas vehicles. Therefore, an accelerated energy transition presents a mixed bag.

Using permanent magnets in applications like electric motors, sensors, and magnetic recording and storage media is expected to boost demand for materials like neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr) oxide.

On the contrary, as the world shifts from gas vehicles to EVs, declining demand from catalytic converters in fossil fuel-powered vehicles will impact lanthanum (La) and cerium (Ce).

Taking all into consideration, the demand for rare earths in an accelerated energy transition is forecasted to increase by 233% between 2020 and 2050. In this scenario, existing producers would be impacted by a short- to medium-term supply deficit.


The ESG dilemma

There is a clear dilemma for energy transition metals in an era of unprecedented demand. Can vital energy transition metals markets ramp up production fast enough to satisfy demand, while also revolutionising supply chains to meet ever-more stringent ESG requirements?

Understanding the challenges and how to capitalise on this investment opportunity has become more important than ever.

Sign up to Wood Mackenzie’s Inside Track to learn more about the impact of an accelerated energy transition on mining and metals.

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