Real Assets
Visualizing $65 Trillion in Hidden Dollar Debt
Visualizing $65 Trillion in Hidden Dollar Debt
The scale of hidden dollar debt around the world is huge.
No less than $65 trillion in unrecorded dollar debt circulates across the global financial system in non-U.S. banks and shadow banks. To put in perspective, global GDP sits at $104 trillion.
This dollar debt is in the form of foreign-exchange swaps, which have exploded over the last decade due to years of monetary easing and ultra-low interest rates, as investors searched for higher yields. Today, unrecorded debt from these foreign-exchange swaps is worth more than double the dollar debt officially recorded on balance sheets across these institutions.
Based on analysis from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the above infographic charts the rise in hidden dollar debt across non-U.S. financial institutions and examines the wider implications of its growth.
Dollar Debt: A Beginners Guide
To start, we will briefly look at the role of foreign-exchange (forex) swaps in the global economy. The forex market is the largest in the world by a long stretch, with trillions traded daily.
Some of the key players that use foreign-exchange swaps are:
- Corporations
- Financial institutions
- Central banks
To understand forex swaps is to look at the role of currency risk. As we have seen in 2022, the U.S. dollar has been on a tear. When this happens, it hurts company earnings that generate revenue across borders. That’s because they earn revenue in foreign currencies (which have likely declined in value against the dollar) but end up converting earnings to U.S. dollars.
In order to reduce currency risk, market participants will buy forex swaps. Here, two parties agree to exchange one currency for another. In short, this helps protect the company from unfavorable foreign exchange rates.
What’s more, due to accounting rules, forex swaps are often unrecorded on balance sheets, and as a result are quite opaque.
A Mountain of Debt
Since 2008, the value of this opaque, unrecorded dollar debt has nearly doubled.
Date | Non-U.S. Bank Unrecorded Debt | Non-U.S. Shadow Bank Unrecorded Debt |
---|---|---|
2022* | $39.4T | $26.0T |
2021 | $37.1T | $25.0T |
2020 | $34.5T | $22.9T |
2019 | $32.9T | $21.5T |
2018 | $32.4T | $20.1T |
2017 | $31.2T | $18.8T |
2016 | $27.9T | $17.0T |
2015 | $25.1T | $15.6T |
2014 | $30.0T | $17.0T |
2013 | $30.8T | $15.7T |
2012 | $28.9T | $15.9T |
2011 | $27.5T | $14.7T |
2010 | $24.8T | $15.0T |
2009 | $21.4T | $12.1T |
2008 | $21.9T | $12.4T |
*As of June 30, 2022
Driving its rise in part was an era of rock-bottom interest rates globally. As investors sought out higher returns, they took on greater leverage—and forex swaps are one example of this.
Now, as interest rates have been rising, forex swaps have increased amid higher market volatility as investors look to hedge currency risk. This appears in both non-U.S. banks and non-U.S. shadow banks, which are unregulated financial intermediaries.
Overall, the value of unrecorded debt is staggering. An estimated $39 trillion is held by non-U.S. banks along with $26 trillion in overseas shadow banks around the world.
Past Case Studies
Why does the massive growth in dollar debt present risks?
During the market crashes of 2008 and 2020, forex swaps faced a funding squeeze. To borrow U.S. dollars, market participants had to pay high rates. A lot of this hinged on the impact of extreme volatility on these swaps, putting pressure on funding rates.
Here are two examples of how volatility can heighten risk in the forex market:
- Exchange-rate volatility: Sharp swings in USD can spur a liquidity crunch
- U.S. interest-rate volatility: Sudden rate fluctuations can mean much higher costs for these trades
In both cases, the U.S. central bank had to step in to provide liquidity in the market and prevent dollar shortages. This was done through pumping cash into the system and creating swap lines with other non-U.S. banks such as the Bank of Canada or the Bank of Japan. These were designed to protect from declining currency values and a liquidity crunch.
Dollar Debt: The Wider Implications
The risk from growing dollar debt and these swap lines arises when a non-U.S. bank or shadow bank may not be able to hold up their end of the agreement. In fact, on a daily basis, there is an estimated $2.2 trillion in forex swaps exposed to settlement risk.
Given its vast scale, this dollar debt could have greater systemic spillover effects. If participants fail to pay it could undermine financial market stability. Because demand for U.S. dollars increases during market uncertainty, a worsening economic climate could potentially expose the forex market to more vulnerabilities.
Real Assets
Visualized: China’s Steel Demand Through Time
China’s steel demand remains robust, but the breakdown on a sectoral level has shifted since 2010. Which sectors are driving steel consumption?
Visualized: China’s Steel Demand Through Time
As the world’s manufacturing powerhouse, China has the highest global demand for crude steel, with the market experiencing remarkable growth since 2010.
In 2023, China’s crude steel demand reached 911 million metric tons. This is up an estimated 50% from 609 million metric tons 13 years earlier. When adding in exports and changes to inventory, China surpassed 1 billion metric tons of steel production for the fifth year in a row.
However, the growth in demand for the metal has not been even across industries. In this graphic, we’ve partnered with BHP to visualize how demand for steel on a sectoral level has shifted between 2010 and 2023.
The Sectors Driving Steel Demand
We observed demand for crude steel across the following sectors:
- Machinery: machinery used in power, construction, metals and mining, agriculture, tools and parts, etc.
- Infrastructure: roads, railways, subways, pipelines, etc.
- Construction: urban and rural housing, office buildings, industrial buildings, WRAC buildings (wholesale, retail, accommodation, catering), etc.
- Transport: light-duty vehicles, trucks and buses, auto parts, shipbuilding, etc.
- Consumer Durable Goods: refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, microwaves, etc.
- Metal Goods: containers and hardware, etc.
- Other: smaller categories, statistical change, etc.
In 2010, the largest share of Chinese demand came from the construction sector. Construction accounted for an estimated 42% of the country’s total steel needs. Machinery (20%) and infrastructure (13%) were the industries with the second- and third-highest demand, respectively.
Over the past 13 years, however, demand has shifted towards the machinery and infrastructure industries.
Sector | 2010 (%) | 2023 (%) |
---|---|---|
Machinery | 20 | 30 |
Infrastructure | 13 | 17 |
Construction | 42 | 24 |
Transport | 12 | 9 |
Durable Goods | 7 | 8 |
Other | 6 | 12 |
The demand for steel from the construction industry is estimated to have dropped from 42% of total demand to 24%, as construction firms purchased 37 million metric tons less steel in 2023 compared to 2010. This slump can, in part, be attributed to the Chinese real estate crisis and developer bankruptcies. Both of these factors led to a slowdown in residential building starts.
The machinery sector, on the other hand, has witnessed incredible growth. It rose from an estimated 20% share of overall Chinese steel demand in 2010 to 30% by 2023, boosted by an influx of equipment renewals. Infrastructure saw approximate growth of 13% to 17% over this timeframe.
Steel Demand for Transportation and Durable Goods
The share of steel used by the transport sector is estimated to have falled from 12% in 2010 to 9% in 2023. However, there was an uptick in the amount of steel used by the industry. It rose from around 73 million metric tons in 2010 to 82 million metric tons 13 years later. And, with more than half of all new electric vehicles (EVs) sold worldwide made in China, the sector could receive support if EVs continue to gain in popularity.
In fact, the green economy needs the steel industry—it remains vital for the production of emerging technologies. As such, it is important that nations take steps towards “cleaning” their steel industries. China is doing so with its focus on carbon capture, utilization, and storage technologies, employing green hydrogen metallurgy, and introducing electric furnaces.
Steel demand for durable goods rose slightly from 2010 to 2023. However, the relatively steady share masks the near-doubling of absolute steel purchased by this sector—up from 43 million metric tons to an estimated 73 million metric tons.
The Path Forward for Steel
The Chinese steel industry remains robust—growing by an estimated 50% from 2010 to 2023—despite significant shifts beneath the surface.
As the energy transition progresses, further changes in industry demand for steel are likely, especially with the increasing prominence of clean technologies, such as EVs. Conversely, demand from the construction industry remains closely tied to the outlook of the country’s housing sector.
BHP is one of the world’s leading iron ore producers. Read more insights in its economic and commodity outlook report.
Real Assets
Ranked: The Countries That Added the Most Gold Reserves (2013-2023)
Russia and China lead in gold purchases.
Countries Buying the Most Gold (2013-2023)
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, increased sanctions, and discussions around de-dollarization, interest in gold purchases is rising. But which countries are leading the charge in increasing their gold reserves?
This graphic ranks the top 10 countries by the change in gold reserves from 2013 to 2023. The figures, measured in tonnes, were compiled by the World Gold Council.
Russia and China Lead in Gold Purchases
Central banks, particularly those of Russia and China, have bought gold at the fastest pace as countries seek to diversify their reserves away from the dollar. Central banks also hold gold reserves due to their safety, liquidity, and return characteristics.
Russia’s reserves jumped from 1,035 tonnes in 2013 to 2,333 in 2023. China’s reserves rose from 1,054 tonnes to 2,235 in 2023.
In third place in our ranking of central bank gold additions, Türkiye increased its reserves from 116 tonnes in 2013 to 540 tonnes in 2023.
Rank | Country | Q4 '13 | Q4 '23 | 10 Year Gold Reserve Change (tonnes) |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 🇷🇺 Russia | 1,035 | 2,333 | +1,298 |
2 | 🇨🇳 China | 1,054 | 2,235 | +1,181 |
3 | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | 116 | 540 | +424 |
4 | 🇵🇱 Poland | 103 | 359 | +256 |
5 | 🇮🇳 India | 558 | 804 | +246 |
6 | 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 217 | 371 | +154 |
7 | 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan | 144 | 294 | +151 |
8 | 🇸🇬 Singapore | 127 | 230 | +103 |
9 | 🇮🇶 Iraq | 42 | 143 | +100 |
10 | 🇹🇭 Thailand | 152 | 244 | +92 |
The United States remains as the country with the highest overall gold reserves, holding 8,133 tonnes. Half of the country’s reserves are stored at the United States Bullion Depository, commonly known as Fort Knox, a United States Army installation in Kentucky.
Germany ranks second with 3,351 tonnes, followed by Italy with 2,452 tonnes.
Learn More on the Voronoi App
In you enjoyed this graphic, make sure to check this bar chart about the top ten countries in total gold reserves in 2024.
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