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Visualizing $65 Trillion in Hidden Dollar Debt

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Visualizing $65 Trillion in Hidden Dollar Debt

Visualizing $65 Trillion in Hidden Dollar Debt

The scale of hidden dollar debt around the world is huge.

No less than $65 trillion in unrecorded dollar debt circulates across the global financial system in non-U.S. banks and shadow banks. To put in perspective, global GDP sits at $104 trillion.

This dollar debt is in the form of foreign-exchange swaps, which have exploded over the last decade due to years of monetary easing and ultra-low interest rates, as investors searched for higher yields. Today, unrecorded debt from these foreign-exchange swaps is worth more than double the dollar debt officially recorded on balance sheets across these institutions.

Based on analysis from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the above infographic charts the rise in hidden dollar debt across non-U.S. financial institutions and examines the wider implications of its growth.

Dollar Debt: A Beginners Guide

To start, we will briefly look at the role of foreign-exchange (forex) swaps in the global economy. The forex market is the largest in the world by a long stretch, with trillions traded daily.

Some of the key players that use foreign-exchange swaps are:

  • Corporations
  • Financial institutions
  • Central banks

To understand forex swaps is to look at the role of currency risk. As we have seen in 2022, the U.S. dollar has been on a tear. When this happens, it hurts company earnings that generate revenue across borders. That’s because they earn revenue in foreign currencies (which have likely declined in value against the dollar) but end up converting earnings to U.S. dollars.

In order to reduce currency risk, market participants will buy forex swaps. Here, two parties agree to exchange one currency for another. In short, this helps protect the company from unfavorable foreign exchange rates.

What’s more, due to accounting rules, forex swaps are often unrecorded on balance sheets, and as a result are quite opaque.

A Mountain of Debt

Since 2008, the value of this opaque, unrecorded dollar debt has nearly doubled.

Date
Non-U.S. Bank
Unrecorded Debt
Non-U.S. Shadow Bank
Unrecorded Debt
2022*$39.4T$26.0T
2021$37.1T$25.0T
2020$34.5T$22.9T
2019$32.9T$21.5T
2018$32.4T$20.1T
2017$31.2T$18.8T
2016$27.9T$17.0T
2015$25.1T$15.6T
2014$30.0T$17.0T
2013$30.8T$15.7T
2012$28.9T$15.9T
2011$27.5T$14.7T
2010$24.8T$15.0T
2009$21.4T$12.1T
2008$21.9T$12.4T

*As of June 30, 2022

Driving its rise in part was an era of rock-bottom interest rates globally. As investors sought out higher returns, they took on greater leverage—and forex swaps are one example of this.

Now, as interest rates have been rising, forex swaps have increased amid higher market volatility as investors look to hedge currency risk. This appears in both non-U.S. banks and non-U.S. shadow banks, which are unregulated financial intermediaries.

Overall, the value of unrecorded debt is staggering. An estimated $39 trillion is held by non-U.S. banks along with $26 trillion in overseas shadow banks around the world.

Past Case Studies

Why does the massive growth in dollar debt present risks?

During the market crashes of 2008 and 2020, forex swaps faced a funding squeeze. To borrow U.S. dollars, market participants had to pay high rates. A lot of this hinged on the impact of extreme volatility on these swaps, putting pressure on funding rates.

Here are two examples of how volatility can heighten risk in the forex market:

  • Exchange-rate volatility: Sharp swings in USD can spur a liquidity crunch
  • U.S. interest-rate volatility: Sudden rate fluctuations can mean much higher costs for these trades

In both cases, the U.S. central bank had to step in to provide liquidity in the market and prevent dollar shortages. This was done through pumping cash into the system and creating swap lines with other non-U.S. banks such as the Bank of Canada or the Bank of Japan. These were designed to protect from declining currency values and a liquidity crunch.

Dollar Debt: The Wider Implications

The risk from growing dollar debt and these swap lines arises when a non-U.S. bank or shadow bank may not be able to hold up their end of the agreement. In fact, on a daily basis, there is an estimated $2.2 trillion in forex swaps exposed to settlement risk.

Given its vast scale, this dollar debt could have greater systemic spillover effects. If participants fail to pay it could undermine financial market stability. Because demand for U.S. dollars increases during market uncertainty, a worsening economic climate could potentially expose the forex market to more vulnerabilities.

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Ranked: Top Countries by Natural Resource Value

Russia leads the pack with natural resources valued at $75 trillion.

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Ranked: Top Countries by Natural Resource Value

Ranked: Top Countries by Natural Resource Value

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Natural resources are the backbone of modern manufacturing, necessary to produce everything around us.

According to 2021 data from Statista, 10 countries dominate the global natural resource landscape, each holding vast reserves critical for various industries.

Russia’s $75 Trillion in Natural Resources

Russia leads the pack with natural resources valued at $75 trillion, largely consisting of coal, natural gas, oil, and rare earth metals. At the end of 2018, Russia’s Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment valued the country’s mineral reserves at approximately $1.44 trillion.

In terms of global share, Russia is unmatched in natural gas, holding the world’s largest proven reserves at 1.32 quadrillion cubic feet as of 2020—nearly 20% of the global total. Russia also ranks as a gold powerhouse.

Other Resource Giants

The United States ranks second, with an estimated $45 trillion in natural resources, including coal, timber, natural gas, and valuable metals like gold.

CountryMain Natural ResourcesValue (in trillion USD)
🇷🇺 RussiaCoal, natural gas, oil, gold, timber, rare earth metals75
🇺🇸 U.S.Coal, timber, natural gas, gold, copper45
🇸🇦 Saudi ArabiaOil, timber34
🇨🇦 CanadaOil, uranium, timber, natural gas, phosphate33
🇮🇷 IranOil, natural gas27
🇨🇳 ChinaCoal, rare earth metals, timber23
🇧🇷 BrazilGold, uranium, iron, timber, oil22
🇦🇺 AustraliaCoal, timber, copper, iron ore, gold, uranium20
🇮🇶 IraqOil, phosphate rock16
🇻🇪 VenezuelaIron, natural gas, oil14

In Saudi Arabia and Canada, oil wealth drives natural resources, placing these countries third and fourth on the list. Saudi Arabia, with its vast oil fields, has been a leader in global energy markets. Canada, on the other hand, also benefits from substantial uranium deposits and is home to some of the world’s largest lumber companies.

Further down the list, China has vast coal reserves, positioning it as the top producer of the fuel.

Mineral-rich Brazil and Australia are leading producers of metals like iron ore, while Australia is also a top exporter of coal.

Learn More on the Voronoi App 

If you enjoyed this graphic, make sure to check out this graphic that shows how global coal consumption is still rising.

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Visualizing Gold Consumption vs. Domestic Supply

India’s consumption is 50 times higher than its domestic supply.

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This graphic compares gold demand (in tonnes) versus domestic gold production in ten selected countries.

Visualizing Gold Consumption vs. Domestic Supply

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

While India and China dominate the demand for gold, both countries face different scenarios when comparing supply gaps.

With its huge jewelry industry, India’s consumption is 50 times higher than its domestic supply. Meanwhile, China produces more than one-third of the gold it demands.

This graphic compares gold demand (in tonnes) versus domestic gold production in 10 selected countries. The data comes from the World Gold Council and was compiled by The Gold Bullion Company as of 2023.

India’s Massive Gold Market

Gold holds a central role in India’s culture, considered a store of value, a symbol of wealth and status, and a fundamental part of many rituals. The metal is especially auspicious in Hindu and Jain cultures.

With a population of over a billion, India tops our ranking with substantial gold demand, primarily for jewelry and gold bars.

CountryGold Production in Tonnes (2023)Gold Consumer Demand Deficit or Surplus
🇮🇳 India15748-733
🇨🇳 China378910-532
🇹🇷 Turkey37202-165
🇺🇸 United States167249-82
🇧🇷 Brazil861769
🇮🇩 Indonesia1334588
🇲🇽 Mexico12715112
🇨🇦 Canada19224168
🇷🇺 Russia32271251
🇦🇺 Australia29424270

China ranks second, with demand driven primarily by gold’s role as a store of value, especially by the People’s Bank of China. Central banks seek gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Since 2022, the People’s Bank of China has increased its gold reserves by 316 tonnes.

In third place for gold demand, the U.S. consumed 249 tonnes in 2023, against a domestic supply of 167 tonnes.

Turkey ranks fourth, with mine production in 2023 at 37 tonnes, which is five times lower than its demand of 202 tonnes.

Learn More on the Voronoi App 

To learn more about gold, check out this graphic that shows the value of gold bars in various sizes (as of Aug. 21, 2024).

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