Real Assets
Visualized: China’s Steel Demand Through Time
The following content is sponsored by BHP
Visualized: China’s Steel Demand Through Time
As the world’s manufacturing powerhouse, China has the highest global demand for crude steel, with the market experiencing remarkable growth since 2010.
In 2023, China’s crude steel demand reached 911 million metric tons. This is up an estimated 50% from 609 million metric tons 13 years earlier. When adding in exports and changes to inventory, China surpassed 1 billion metric tons of steel production for the fifth year in a row.
However, the growth in demand for the metal has not been even across industries. In this graphic, we’ve partnered with BHP to visualize how demand for steel on a sectoral level has shifted between 2010 and 2023.
The Sectors Driving Steel Demand
We observed demand for crude steel across the following sectors:
- Machinery: machinery used in power, construction, metals and mining, agriculture, tools and parts, etc.
- Infrastructure: roads, railways, subways, pipelines, etc.
- Construction: urban and rural housing, office buildings, industrial buildings, WRAC buildings (wholesale, retail, accommodation, catering), etc.
- Transport: light-duty vehicles, trucks and buses, auto parts, shipbuilding, etc.
- Consumer Durable Goods: refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, microwaves, etc.
- Metal Goods: containers and hardware, etc.
- Other: smaller categories, statistical change, etc.
In 2010, the largest share of Chinese demand came from the construction sector. Construction accounted for an estimated 42% of the country’s total steel needs. Machinery (20%) and infrastructure (13%) were the industries with the second- and third-highest demand, respectively.
Over the past 13 years, however, demand has shifted towards the machinery and infrastructure industries.
Sector | 2010 (%) | 2023 (%) |
---|---|---|
Machinery | 20 | 30 |
Infrastructure | 13 | 17 |
Construction | 42 | 24 |
Transport | 12 | 9 |
Durable Goods | 7 | 8 |
Other | 6 | 12 |
The demand for steel from the construction industry is estimated to have dropped from 42% of total demand to 24%, as construction firms purchased 37 million metric tons less steel in 2023 compared to 2010. This slump can, in part, be attributed to the Chinese real estate crisis and developer bankruptcies. Both of these factors led to a slowdown in residential building starts.
The machinery sector, on the other hand, has witnessed incredible growth. It rose from an estimated 20% share of overall Chinese steel demand in 2010 to 30% by 2023, boosted by an influx of equipment renewals. Infrastructure saw approximate growth of 13% to 17% over this timeframe.
Steel Demand for Transportation and Durable Goods
The share of steel used by the transport sector is estimated to have falled from 12% in 2010 to 9% in 2023. However, there was an uptick in the amount of steel used by the industry. It rose from around 73 million metric tons in 2010 to 82 million metric tons 13 years later. And, with more than half of all new electric vehicles (EVs) sold worldwide made in China, the sector could receive support if EVs continue to gain in popularity.
In fact, the green economy needs the steel industry—it remains vital for the production of emerging technologies. As such, it is important that nations take steps towards “cleaning” their steel industries. China is doing so with its focus on carbon capture, utilization, and storage technologies, employing green hydrogen metallurgy, and introducing electric furnaces.
Steel demand for durable goods rose slightly from 2010 to 2023. However, the relatively steady share masks the near-doubling of absolute steel purchased by this sector—up from 43 million metric tons to an estimated 73 million metric tons.
The Path Forward for Steel
The Chinese steel industry remains robust—growing by an estimated 50% from 2010 to 2023—despite significant shifts beneath the surface.
As the energy transition progresses, further changes in industry demand for steel are likely, especially with the increasing prominence of clean technologies, such as EVs. Conversely, demand from the construction industry remains closely tied to the outlook of the country’s housing sector.
BHP is one of the world’s leading iron ore producers. Read more insights in its economic and commodity outlook report.
Real Assets
Charted: Major Copper Discoveries Since 1900
Copper discoveries are becoming increasingly rare and often found deeper underground.
Visualized: Major Copper Discoveries Since 1900
In the evolving landscape of copper mining, deposits are increasingly challenging to locate and extract.
As deposits are found deeper underground, accessing these resources becomes more costly and technically complex, ultimately impacting copper prices.
To highlight this trend, Visual Capitalist partnered with BHP to show the depths and sizes of major copper discoveries found since 1900.
A Century of Copper Discoveries
This graphic shows copper discoveries with over 3 million metric tons of copper equivalent, based on data from MinEx Consulting and BHP up to 2022.
The latest major discovery, made by Filo del Sol in 2020, lies 600 meters below ground and contains just over 11 million metric tons of copper equivalent.
Deposit Name | Discovery Year | Million metric tons of copper equivalent | Depth (Meters) |
---|---|---|---|
Filo Del Sol | 2020 | 11 | -600 |
Hu'u | 2015 | 15 | -550 |
Kakula | 2014 | 19 | -200 |
Cascabel | 2013 | 12 | -25 |
Timok | 2012 | 16 | -460 |
Los Helados | 2009 | 11 | -350 |
Kamoa | 2008 | 25 | -70 |
Los Sulfatos | 2007 | 45 | -320 |
Heruga | 2005 | 7 | -950 |
Carapateena | 2005 | 5 | -470 |
Pebble | 2002 | 37 | -80 |
Resolution | 2002 | 27 | -1280 |
Hugo Dummett | 2002 | 19 | -500 |
Centinela (Sulphide) | 2000 | 18 | -350 |
Spence Cu Camp | 1996 | 15 | -100 |
Escondida Norte | 1995 | 10 | -200 |
Tampakan | 1992 | 15 | -200 |
Collahuasi Cu Au Camp | 1991 | 92 | -75 |
Batu Hijau | 1990 | 8 | -45 |
Ministro Hales | 1989 | 24 | -300 |
Grasberg-Ertsberg Project (Camp) | 1988 | 57 | -25 |
Escondida (Main Deposit) | 1981 | 85 | -40 |
Los Bronces | 1978 | 33 | -20 |
Salobo | 1977 | 10 | -40 |
Olympic Dam | 1975 | 86 | -350 |
Antamina | 1974 | 27 | -30 |
Los Pelambres | 1971 | 38 | -20 |
Ok Tedi | 1969 | 9 | -20 |
Sar Cheshmeh Cu Camp | 1967 | 30 | -20 |
El Abra Cu Camp | 1965 | 18 | -20 |
Panguna | 1965 | 9 | -20 |
Kidd Creek | 1963 | 5 | -30 |
Lubin Cu Camp | 1957 | 66 | -5 |
Palabora | 1956 | 8 | -35 |
Andina Cu Camp | 1955 | 144 | -20 |
Chambishi | 1952 | 6 | -13 |
Gaisky Complex | 1950 | 8 | -30 |
Udokan | 1949 | 27 | -15 |
Kamoto Cu/Co-Operation | 1940 | 26 | -3 |
Konkola (Bancroft) | 1935 | 19 | -5 |
Kalmakyr | 1931 | 10 | -5 |
Dzhezkazgan | 1929 | 22 | -5 |
Nkana (Rokana) Division | 1928 | 11 | -5 |
Cananea Cu Camp | 1926 | 35 | -5 |
Mufulira | 1923 | 16 | -10 |
Nchanga | 1923 | 15 | -10 |
Tenke Fungurume | 1918 | 27 | -5 |
Chuquicamata Cu Camp | 1910 | 131 | -5 |
El Teniente | 1904 | 127 | -5 |
Ely/Robinson | 1902 | 6 | -5 |
Andina Copper Camp, discovered in 1955 in Chile, holds a massive 144 million metric tons of copper equivalent, making it the largest deposit discovered since 1900. However, deposits of this scale near the surface are becoming increasingly rare.
Notable discoveries like the Escondida deposit, found at a relatively shallow depth of only 40 meters in 1981, contrast sharply with newer, deeper finds like the Resolution deposit, discovered in 2002 at a depth of 1,280 meters.
The Future of Copper Mining
This trend in recent copper discoveries highlights that copper mines are harder to develop than ever before.
And while copper recycling is expected to play an essential role in meeting growing demand, it won’t be sufficient on its own, according to BHP. An emphasis on primary supply, along with technological progress that improves mine productivity, is crucial.
Overall, BHP’s analysis estimates that a $250 billion investment in the sector is necessary in the next decade to overcome these challenges.
Get more copper insights in BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook.
Real Assets
How Gold Beats Uncertainty, in 7 Charts
The following content is sponsored by the Reagan Gold Group
The U.S. economy may not be as strong as it previously was. GDP growth in 2023 was 2.5% compared to 5.8% in 2021. High levels of public debt and geopolitical tensions have dissuaded other nations from using the dollar, which could create inflationary pressure on Americans. Could investing in gold provide the solution?
This charticle, sponsored by the Reagan Gold Group, will explore the U.S. economic climate and how gold can help Americans protect their investments.
#1: High Levels of Public Debt
The U.S. public deficit has grown considerably over the last decade. According to the U.S. Treasury, as of September 30th, 2024, total public debt stood at $35,464,673,929,172–if called in, it would be as every U.S. citizen would have to pay over $100,000.
High levels of public debt can negatively affect the U.S. economy. Interest payments can divert funds from where needed and reduce economic growth. However, public debt alone does not break an economy.
For example, Japan’s sovereign debt is more than 250% of GDP, but as much of the debt is held by Japan’s central bank, its robust and asset-focused balance sheet mitigates much of the potential instability.
#2: Less U.S. Dollars in International Systems
Another global trend that could impact the U.S. economy has slowly emerged since World War II–the dollar has lessened its circulation among international markets. The IMF reports that global FX reserves held in USD have notably declined, dropping from 71% in 2000 to 58% in 2023.
Geopolitical tensions have contributed to fewer U.S. dollars flowing through the global banking and exchange systems. This reduction in demand for U.S. dollars impacts the nation’s overall economic influence globally, potentially creating instability in other areas.
#3: Subpar Returns for U.S. Pension Funds
The performance of the largest pension funds in the U.S. over the last five years shows slightly depressed returns, especially when compared to gold.
Inflation and the overall reduction in the dollar’s economic power create a situation where, as pressure mounts, retirement payments may not stretch as far as retirees hope. This situation has led to many, including central banks, seeking insurance.
Could investing in gold be that insurance?
#4: Rising Gold Spot Prices
Despite financial crises, rising geo-political tensions, and a global pandemic, gold performance over the last 20 years has been strong, with its spot price growing aggressively:
Historically, gold has held its value against inflation, and its continued growth over the years has made it a sound investment in times of turmoil. So, considering the current economic climate, it’s no surprise that many investors are turning to gold.
#5: Increasing Demand from Central Banks
As if underlining the importance of gold, central banks have also increased their gold purchases by over 30% over the last five years.
When the World Gold Council asked central bankers, “How relevant are the following factors in your organization’s decision to hold gold?” The most common, highly relevant answers were that gold has no default risk, its performance in crises, and its value as a hedge against inflation, at 49%, 47%, and 42%, respectively.
#6: The Growth of Gold
When compared against other assets, gold’s current performance shows that it is more than just a hedge against inflation over the long term:
Gold’s recent performance has eclipsed many other assets over the long and short term, with its price growing at a higher rate than even the Emerging Markets Index.
#7: Gold Returns vs. Other Assets
In fact, gold was one of the better-performing overall assets between 2023 and 2024, returning nearly 14%.
Indeed, keeping to its history of consistency, investing in gold has provided percentage returns above other lauded long-term assets such as bonds.
A Golden Opportunity
The U.S. economy may not be what it was, with economic and geopolitical turmoil creating inflationary stresses that pressure lower-performing assets such as retirement funds.
Institutional and personal investors want to protect their wealth, and physical gold has proven to be one of the best hedges against uncertainty.
Learn more about how gold can protect your investments.
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