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The Top 10 Best and Worst-Performing Commodities of 2022

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Top 10 Best and Worst-Performing Commodities of 2022

Hard commodities had a roller coaster year in 2022.

While prices for some commodities stabilized after skyrocketing on the heels of the pandemic, others delivered stellar returns. Behind the volatility was a plethora of factors, including the Russia-Ukraine war, the global economic slump, and a drop in China’s demand for materials.

This chart uses price data from TradingEconomics to highlight the 10 best and worst performing hard commodities of 2022. It excludes soft commodities like agricultural products and meat.

Energy Crisis Sets Coal on Fire

The global economic rebound of 2021, which set the fastest post-recession growth pace in the last 80 years, sparked coal prices as energy demand increased. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ignited the spark, with coal prices exploding 157% in 2022.

Consequently, coal was the best performing commodity in 2022, far outperforming the other nine top commodities by returns.

RankCommodity2022 Returns
#1Coal157%
#2Lithium87%
#3Nickel43%
#4Titanium27%
#5Heating oil21%
#6Uranium12%
#7Platinum9%
#8Molybdenum4%
#9Iron ore1%
#10Gold1%

Lithium (carbonate) and nickel prices continue to be supercharged by the demand for EVs and batteries. Since the beginning of 2021, lithium prices have increased 11-fold, and remain elevated at more than $70,000 per tonne.

As a result of high prices for lithium, nickel, and other battery metals, the average cost of lithium-ion battery packs increased in 2022, for the first time since 2010. Battery pack prices are expected to increase in 2023 as well, before falling in 2024.

The year was also positive for uranium as countries revived their nuclear power plans to combat the energy crunch. Notably, Germany extended the lifetime of three plants that were set to shut down in 2022, and Japan announced accelerated restarts for several idle reactors.

What About Crude Oil?

Crude oil is by far the biggest commodity market, and oil prices were the talk of the town for much of 2022.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, WTI crude oil prices rose to their highest level since 2013 by May 2022. However, between June and the end of December, prices fell from around $116 per barrel to $80 per barrel (a 31% fall). Overall, in 2022, crude oil delivered a -3% return.

The erasure of oil’s initial gains can be attributed to the slowdown in economic growth globally, in addition to strict COVID-19 lockdowns in China.

The 10 Biggest Commodity Drawdowns

The negative returns for most commodities can be largely attributed to prices stabilizing at lower levels after bullish runs in 2021 and the beginning of 2022.

RankCommodity2022 Returns
#1Magnesium-54%
#2Tin-37%
#3Propane-37%
#4Rubber-26%
#5Cobalt-26%
#6Natural Gas TTF-20%
#7Naphtha-19%
#8Zinc-18%
#9Copper-16%
#10Aluminum-16%

For example, magnesium prices more than halved in 2022, declining from an all-time high in September 2021. Similarly, tin prices also normalized after rising due to unprecedented demand from the electronics sector during the economic rebound from the pandemic.

The volatility in European natural gas (TTF gas) was one of the highlights of the year. Prices rose to around €340 per megawatt-hour in August as the region looked to cut its reliance on Russia. However, they have since fallen due to milder temperatures in winter and the overall drop in energy demand. Still, on average, TTF prices were 150% higher in 2022 than in 2021.

Copper prices are known to reflect the state of the global economy. It’s safe to say that they did so in 2022, falling 16% as economic growth slowed down and China’s economic activity came to a halt at various times due to Zero-COVID policies.

How Will Commodities Perform in 2023?

According to Goldman Sachs, commodity markets have a bullish outlook for 2023, mainly due to underinvestment and the lack of supply response in 2022.

Rising interest rates worldwide increased the cost of capital in 2022, which drained money from commodity markets. Therefore, supply shortages are expected to persist. As China reopens and eases its lockdown measures, the demand for hard commodities is likely to rebound, putting upward pressure on prices.

J.P. Morgan has similar expectations. The bank expects oil prices to rise due to an increase in demand but projects a “transitional year” for base metals, with prices expected to remain relatively stable. The outlook for precious metals is more positive, with gold prices expected to hover around $1,860 per ounce towards the end of 2023.

Of course, commodity markets are volatile. With various geopolitical and macroeconomic moving parts, it’ll be interesting to see what this year has in store for fuels and metals.

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200 Years of Global Gold Production, by Country

Global gold production has grown exponentially since the 1800s, with 86% of all above-ground gold mined in the last 200 years.

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Visualizing Global Gold Production Over 200 Years

Although the practice of gold mining has been around for thousands of years, it’s estimated that roughly 86% of all above-ground gold was extracted in the last 200 years.

With modern mining techniques making large-scale production possible, global gold production has grown exponentially since the 1800s.

The above infographic uses data from Our World in Data to visualize global gold production by country from 1820 to 2022, showing how gold mining has evolved to become increasingly global over time.

A Brief History of Gold Mining

The best-known gold rush in modern history occurred in California in 1848, when James Marshall discovered gold in Sacramento Valley. As word spread, thousands of migrants flocked to California in search of gold, and by 1855, miners had extracted around $2 billion worth of gold.

The United States, Australia, and Russia were (interchangeably) the three largest gold producers until the 1890s. Then, South Africa took the helm thanks to the massive discovery in the Witwatersrand Basin, now regarded today as one of the world’s greatest ever goldfields.

South Africa’s annual gold production peaked in 1970 at 1,002 tonnes—by far the largest amount of gold produced by any country in a year.

With the price of gold rising since the 1980s, global gold production has become increasingly widespread. By 2007, China was the world’s largest gold-producing nation, and today a significant quantity of gold is being mined in over 40 countries.

The Top Gold-Producing Countries in 2022

Around 31% of the world’s gold production in 2022 came from three countries—China, Russia, and Australia, with each producing over 300 tonnes of the precious metal.

RankCountry2022E Gold Production, tonnes% of Total
#1🇨🇳 China33011%
#2🇷🇺 Russia32010%
#3🇦🇺 Australia32010%
#4🇨🇦 Canada2207%
#5🇺🇸 United States1705%
#6🇲🇽 Mexico1204%
#7🇰🇿 Kazakhstan1204%
#8🇿🇦 South Africa1104%
#9🇵🇪 Peru1003%
#10🇺🇿 Uzbekistan1003%
#11🇬🇭 Ghana903%
#12🇮🇩 Indonesia702%
-🌍 Rest of the World1,03033%
-World Total3,100100%

North American countries Canada, the U.S., and Mexico round out the top six gold producers, collectively making up 16% of the global total. The state of Nevada alone accounted for 72% of U.S. production, hosting the world’s largest gold mining complex (including six mines) owned by Nevada Gold Mines.

Meanwhile, South Africa produced 110 tonnes of gold in 2022, down by 74% relative to its output of 430 tonnes in 2000. This long-term decline is the result of mine closures, maturing assets, and industrial conflict, according to the World Gold Council.

Interestingly, two smaller gold producers on the list, Uzbekistan and Indonesia, host the second and third-largest gold mining operations in the world, respectively.

The Outlook for Global Gold Production

As of April 25, gold prices were hovering around the $2,000 per ounce mark and nearing all-time highs. For mining companies, higher gold prices can mean more profits per ounce if costs remain unaffected.

According to the World Gold Council, mined gold production is expected to increase in 2023 and could surpass the record set in 2018 (3,300 tonnes), led by the expansion of existing projects in North America. The chances of record mine output could be higher if gold prices continue to increase.

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All the Metals We Mined in One Visualization

This infographic visualizes the 2.8 billion tonnes of metals mined in 2022.

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All the Metals We Mined in One Visualization

Metals are a big part of our daily lives, found in every building we enter and all devices we use.

Today, major industries that directly consume processed mineral materials contribute 14% of the United States economy.

The above infographic visualizes all 2.8 billion tonnes of metals mined in 2022 and highlights each metal’s largest end-use using data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

Iron Ore Dominance

Iron ore dominates the metals mining landscape, comprising 93% of the total mined. In 2022, 2.6 billion tonnes of iron ore were mined, containing about 1.6 billion tonnes of iron.

Metal/OreQuantity Mined in 2022 (tonnes)% of Total
Iron ore2,600,000,00093.3%
Industrial metals185,111,8356.6%
Technology and Precious Metals1,500,0080.05%
Total2,786,611,843100%

Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Iron ores are found in various geologic environments, such as igneous, metamorphic, or sedimentary rocks, and can contain over 70% iron, with many falling in the 50-60% range.

Combined with other materials like coke and limestone, iron ore is primarily used in steel production. Today, almost all (98%) iron ore is dedicated to steelmaking.

The ore is typically mined in about 50 countries, but Australia, Brazil, China, and India are responsible for 75% of the production.

Because of its essential role in infrastructure development, iron ore is one of the most crucial materials underpinning urbanization and economic growth.

Industrial Metals

Industrial metals occupy the second position on our list, constituting 6.6% of all metals mined in 2022. These metals, including copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc, are employed in construction and industrial applications.

Aluminum constituted nearly 40% of industrial metal production in 2022. China was responsible for 56% of all aluminum produced.

Industrial Metals2022 Mine Production (tonnes)% of Total
Aluminum69,000,00037.3%
Chromium41,000,00022.1%
Copper22,000,00011.9%
Manganese20,000,00010.8%
Zinc13,000,0007.0%
Titanium (mineral concentrates)9,500,0005.1%
Lead4,500,0002.4%
Nickel3,300,0001.8%
Zirconium Minerals (Zircon)1,400,0000.8%
Magnesium1,000,0000.5%
Strontium340,0000.2%
Uranium49,3550.03%
Bismuth20,0000.01%
Mercury2,2000.00%
Beryllium2800.00%
Total185,111,835100%

In the second position is chromium, which plays a primary role in rendering stainless steel corrosion-resistant. South Africa led chromium production, accounting for 44% of the total mined last year.

Technology and Precious Metals

Despite representing less than 1% of all the metals mined, technology metals have been on the news over the last few years as countries and companies seek these materials to reduce carbon emissions and improve productivity.

Technology and Precious Metals2022 Mine Production (tonnes)% of Total
Tin310,00020.7%
Rare Earth Oxides300,00020.0%
Molybdenum250,00016.7%
Cobalt190,00012.7%
Lithium130,0008.7%
Vanadium100,0006.7%
Tungsten84,0005.6%
Niobium79,0005.3%
Silver26,0001.7%
Cadmium24,0001.6%
Gold3,1000.2%
Tantalum2,0000.1%
Indium9000.1%
Gallium5500.04%
Platinum Group Metals4000.03%
Rhenium580.004%
Total1,500,008100%

They include lithium and cobalt, used in electric vehicles and battery storage, and rare earths, used in magnets, metal alloys, and electronics. Many of them are considered critical for countries’ security due to their role in clean energy technologies and dependency on other nations to supply domestic demand.

However, despite increasing interest in these metals, they are still behind precious metals such as gold and silver regarding market size.

The gold market, for example, reached $196 billion in 2022, compared to $10.6 billion for the rare earths market.

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