Real Assets
The Top 10 Best and Worst-Performing Commodities of 2022
Top 10 Best and Worst-Performing Commodities of 2022
Hard commodities had a roller coaster year in 2022.
While prices for some commodities stabilized after skyrocketing on the heels of the pandemic, others delivered stellar returns. Behind the volatility was a plethora of factors, including the Russia-Ukraine war, the global economic slump, and a drop in China’s demand for materials.
This chart uses price data from TradingEconomics to highlight the 10 best and worst performing hard commodities of 2022. It excludes soft commodities like agricultural products and meat.
Energy Crisis Sets Coal on Fire
The global economic rebound of 2021, which set the fastest post-recession growth pace in the last 80 years, sparked coal prices as energy demand increased. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ignited the spark, with coal prices exploding 157% in 2022.
Consequently, coal was the best performing commodity in 2022, far outperforming the other nine top commodities by returns.
| Rank | Commodity | 2022 Returns |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coal | 157% |
| #2 | Lithium | 87% |
| #3 | Nickel | 43% |
| #4 | Titanium | 27% |
| #5 | Heating oil | 21% |
| #6 | Uranium | 12% |
| #7 | Platinum | 9% |
| #8 | Molybdenum | 4% |
| #9 | Iron ore | 1% |
| #10 | Gold | 1% |
Lithium (carbonate) and nickel prices continue to be supercharged by the demand for EVs and batteries. Since the beginning of 2021, lithium prices have increased 11-fold, and remain elevated at more than $70,000 per tonne.
As a result of high prices for lithium, nickel, and other battery metals, the average cost of lithium-ion battery packs increased in 2022, for the first time since 2010. Battery pack prices are expected to increase in 2023 as well, before falling in 2024.
The year was also positive for uranium as countries revived their nuclear power plans to combat the energy crunch. Notably, Germany extended the lifetime of three plants that were set to shut down in 2022, and Japan announced accelerated restarts for several idle reactors.
What About Crude Oil?
Crude oil is by far the biggest commodity market, and oil prices were the talk of the town for much of 2022.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, WTI crude oil prices rose to their highest level since 2013 by May 2022. However, between June and the end of December, prices fell from around $116 per barrel to $80 per barrel (a 31% fall). Overall, in 2022, crude oil delivered a -3% return.
The erasure of oil’s initial gains can be attributed to the slowdown in economic growth globally, in addition to strict COVID-19 lockdowns in China.
The 10 Biggest Commodity Drawdowns
The negative returns for most commodities can be largely attributed to prices stabilizing at lower levels after bullish runs in 2021 and the beginning of 2022.
| Rank | Commodity | 2022 Returns |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Magnesium | -54% |
| #2 | Tin | -37% |
| #3 | Propane | -37% |
| #4 | Rubber | -26% |
| #5 | Cobalt | -26% |
| #6 | Natural Gas TTF | -20% |
| #7 | Naphtha | -19% |
| #8 | Zinc | -18% |
| #9 | Copper | -16% |
| #10 | Aluminum | -16% |
For example, magnesium prices more than halved in 2022, declining from an all-time high in September 2021. Similarly, tin prices also normalized after rising due to unprecedented demand from the electronics sector during the economic rebound from the pandemic.
The volatility in European natural gas (TTF gas) was one of the highlights of the year. Prices rose to around €340 per megawatt-hour in August as the region looked to cut its reliance on Russia. However, they have since fallen due to milder temperatures in winter and the overall drop in energy demand. Still, on average, TTF prices were 150% higher in 2022 than in 2021.
Copper prices are known to reflect the state of the global economy. It’s safe to say that they did so in 2022, falling 16% as economic growth slowed down and China’s economic activity came to a halt at various times due to Zero-COVID policies.
How Will Commodities Perform in 2023?
According to Goldman Sachs, commodity markets have a bullish outlook for 2023, mainly due to underinvestment and the lack of supply response in 2022.
Rising interest rates worldwide increased the cost of capital in 2022, which drained money from commodity markets. Therefore, supply shortages are expected to persist. As China reopens and eases its lockdown measures, the demand for hard commodities is likely to rebound, putting upward pressure on prices.
J.P. Morgan has similar expectations. The bank expects oil prices to rise due to an increase in demand but projects a “transitional year” for base metals, with prices expected to remain relatively stable. The outlook for precious metals is more positive, with gold prices expected to hover around $1,860 per ounce towards the end of 2023.
Of course, commodity markets are volatile. With various geopolitical and macroeconomic moving parts, it’ll be interesting to see what this year has in store for fuels and metals.
Real Assets
Visualizing the Gold-to-Oil Ratio (1946-2024)
This graphic shows the gold-to-oil ratio since 1946, charting the significant shifts between the world’s two biggest commodities.
Visualizing the Gold-to-Oil Ratio (1946-2024)
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Gold and oil—two of the most influential commodities on the planet—have a fascinating relationship that has evolved over decades, captured in the gold-to-oil ratio.
The gold-to-oil ratio represents the number of barrels of crude oil equivalent to the price of one troy ounce of gold.
It is viewed as an indicator of the health of the global economy, indicating when gold or oil prices are significantly out of balance with each other.
This graphic shows the gold-to-oil ratio since 1946, using data compiled by Macrotrends.
What is the Gold-to-Oil Ratio?
The gold-to-oil ratio expresses the price relationship between gold and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. WTI is a grade of crude oil and one of the three primary benchmarks for oil pricing, along with Brent and Dubai Crude.
A high ratio indicates that gold is relatively expensive compared to WTI crude oil, and vice versa. This can indicate periods of outsized demand for energy in the form of crude oil, or periods of monetary uncertainty when there is higher demand for gold.
Below is the gold-to-oil ratio every decade between 1946 and 2024.
| Date | Gold to Oil Ratio |
|---|---|
| 1946-01-01 | 29.91 |
| 1950-01-01 | 13.62 |
| 1960-01-01 | 11.89 |
| 1970-01-01 | 10.91 |
| 1980-01-01 | 20.86 |
| 1990-01-01 | 18.10 |
| 2000-01-01 | 10.29 |
| 2010-01-01 | 14.80 |
| 2020-01-01 | 30.66 |
| 2024-01-01 | 26.88 |
| 2024-11-01 | 39.06 |
During the 1950s and 1960s, fixed gold prices and stable oil prices kept the ratio between 11 and 13 for 20 years.
Since the 1980s, the ratio has typically traded within the range of 6 to 40 with a notable exception: in 2020 when the ratio reached a high of 91.1. The peak in 2020 was driven by COVID-19, which boosted gold prices as a safe haven while oil demand and prices plummeted due to global lockdowns.
In contrast, between 2000 and 2008, oil prices were relatively high compared to gold. During this period, the ratio dropped to nearly 6 but never rose above 16.
When comparing the two commodities, it’s worth remembering that the crude oil market is around 10 times larger than that of gold, making it the largest commodity market in the world.
Learn More on the Voronoi App 
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Real Assets
Visualizing the Gold-to-Silver Ratio Since 1869
The gold-to-silver ratio shows how many ounces of silver equal one ounce of gold.
Visualizing the Gold-to-Silver Ratio Since 1869
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
The gold-to-silver ratio shows how many ounces of silver equal one ounce of gold. It is the oldest continuously tracked exchange rate, dating back to 3200 BCE. Historically, the ratio played an important role in ensuring coins had their appropriate value, and it remains an important technical metric for metals investors today.
This graphic shows the gold-to-silver ratio since 1869. Data was compiled by Longtermtrends.
The History of the Gold-to-Silver Ratio
The earliest recorded instance of the gold-to-silver ratio dates back to 3200 BCE, when Menes, the first king of Ancient Egypt, set a ratio of 2.5:1. Since then, the ratio has generally seen gold’s value rise as empires and governments became more familiar with the scarcity and difficulty of production for both metals.
Ancient Rome was one of the earliest civilizations to set a gold-to-silver ratio, starting as low as 8:1 in 210 BCE. Over the years, varying gold and silver inflows from Rome’s conquests caused the ratio to fluctuate between 8 and 12 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold.
By 46 BCE, Julius Caesar had established a standard gold-to-silver ratio of 11.5:1, shortly before it was bumped to 11.75:1 under Emperor Augustus.
In more modern times, the ratio peaked in 1939 at 98:1 after U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt changed the statutory price of gold from $20.67 per troy ounce to $35.
In 2020, the ratio reached an all-time high of 125.1 during the COVID-19 pandemic, as investors sought gold as a safe haven.
| Year | Ratio |
|---|---|
| 1968-01-01 | 16.2 |
| 1968-05-01 | 17.1 |
| 1969-01-01 | 21.3 |
| 1969-05-01 | 24.5 |
| 1969-09-01 | 24.2 |
| 1970-01-01 | 19.5 |
| 1970-09-01 | 19.6 |
| 1971-09-01 | 27.7 |
| 1972-05-01 | 31.9 |
| 1973-01-01 | 31.9 |
| 1973-05-01 | 42.7 |
| 1974-01-01 | 35 |
| 1974-05-01 | 31.4 |
| 1974-09-01 | 37.4 |
| 1975-01-01 | 41.7 |
| 1975-05-01 | 37.9 |
| 1975-09-01 | 34.8 |
| 1976-01-01 | 33.7 |
| 1976-09-01 | 25 |
| 1977-05-01 | 30.9 |
| 1977-09-01 | 32.7 |
| 1978-05-01 | 34 |
| 1979-01-01 | 37.3 |
| 1979-05-01 | 31.3 |
| 1980-01-01 | 14 |
| 1980-05-01 | 38.9 |
| 1980-09-01 | 39.1 |
| 1981-09-01 | 45.9 |
| 1982-09-01 | 52.7 |
| 1983-09-01 | 34.3 |
| 1984-05-01 | 42.1 |
| 1985-01-01 | 49 |
| 1985-05-01 | 51.1 |
| 1985-09-01 | 53.9 |
| 1986-01-01 | 56.3 |
| 1986-05-01 | 66.7 |
| 1986-09-01 | 76 |
| 1987-01-01 | 75 |
| 1987-09-01 | 60.1 |
| 1988-09-01 | 65.3 |
| 1989-05-01 | 66.7 |
| 1990-01-01 | 77.1 |
| 1990-05-01 | 74.2 |
| 1991-01-01 | 94.3 |
| 1991-05-01 | 90.3 |
| 1991-09-01 | 90.7 |
| 1992-01-01 | 90.8 |
| 1992-09-01 | 91.5 |
| 1993-09-01 | 78.2 |
| 1994-09-01 | 71.2 |
| 1995-05-01 | 66.2 |
| 1996-01-01 | 74.9 |
| 1996-05-01 | 72.9 |
| 1996-09-01 | 74.7 |
| 1997-01-01 | 77.1 |
| 1997-05-01 | 71.8 |
| 1997-09-01 | 69 |
| 1998-01-01 | 48.4 |
| 1998-09-01 | 57.8 |
| 1999-09-01 | 49.4 |
| 2000-05-01 | 54.9 |
| 2001-01-01 | 59.4 |
| 2001-05-01 | 60.4 |
| 2002-01-01 | 60.6 |
| 2002-05-01 | 68.2 |
| 2002-09-01 | 69.9 |
| 2003-01-01 | 72.2 |
| 2003-05-01 | 71.8 |
| 2003-09-01 | 73.5 |
| 2004-01-01 | 69.4 |
| 2004-09-01 | 60.3 |
| 2005-09-01 | 63.6 |
| 2006-05-01 | 47.3 |
| 2007-01-01 | 49.3 |
| 2007-05-01 | 51.1 |
| 2008-01-01 | 56.3 |
| 2008-05-01 | 52.8 |
| 2008-09-01 | 60.9 |
| 2009-01-01 | 78.5 |
| 2009-09-01 | 64.1 |
| 2010-09-01 | 64.2 |
| 2011-09-01 | 43.6 |
| 2012-05-01 | 54.1 |
| 2013-01-01 | 54.5 |
| 2013-05-01 | 61.5 |
| 2013-09-01 | 58 |
| 2014-01-01 | 61.2 |
| 2014-05-01 | 67 |
| 2014-09-01 | 66.5 |
| 2015-01-01 | 75.4 |
| 2015-09-01 | 78.3 |
| 2016-09-01 | 69.9 |
| 2017-05-01 | 74.8 |
| 2017-09-01 | 74.8 |
| 2018-01-01 | 76.7 |
| 2018-05-01 | 80 |
| 2018-09-01 | 84 |
| 2019-01-01 | 82.4 |
| 2019-05-01 | 87.3 |
| 2019-09-01 | 81.6 |
| 2020-01-01 | 84.9 |
| 2020-05-01 | 114.6 |
| 2020-09-01 | 71 |
| 2021-01-01 | 71.6 |
| 2021-05-01 | 67.1 |
| 2021-09-01 | 75.8 |
| 2022-01-01 | 78.7 |
| 2022-05-01 | 82.6 |
| 2022-09-01 | 96.2 |
| 2023-01-01 | 76.4 |
| 2023-05-01 | 79.3 |
| 2023-09-01 | 80.5 |
| 2024-01-01 | 87 |
| 2024-05-01 | 86.5 |
| 2024-09-01 | 88.5 |
Learn More on the Voronoi App
If you enjoyed this graphic, make sure to check out this graphic that shows the top countries by natural resource value.
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