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The Solar Power Duck Curve Explained

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The Solar Power Duck Curve Explained

The Solar Power Duck Curve Explained

With the increasing demand for electricity as the world shifts away from fossil fuels, cleaner sources of energy like solar and wind are becoming more and more common.

However, as more solar power is introduced into our grids, operators are dealing with a new problem that can be visualized as the “duck curve.”

Origins of the Duck Curve

In a world heavily reliant on electricity, utility companies have gotten better at using data to anticipate demand and trying to operate as efficiently as possible.

Usually, power companies supply the least amount of power overnight while most consumers are sleeping, ramping up during the morning as people wake up and businesses get going. Then, at sunset, energy demand peaks.

Utility companies use models to predict demand and operate as efficiently as possible by supplying more power during times of higher demand. But the introduction of solar power has brought about problems in these demand curve models.

Since solar power relies on the Sun, peak solar production occurs around midday, when electricity demand is often on the lower end. As a result, energy production is higher than it needs to be, and net demand—total demand minus wind and solar production—falls. Then, when evening approaches, net demand increases, while solar power generation falls.

This discrepancy results in a net demand curve that takes the shape of a duck, and the duck curve gets more pronounced each year, as more solar capacity is added and net demand dips lower and lower at midday.

Why the Curve is Ruffling Feathers

The drop in net demand at midday basically creates two problems:

  1. Solar energy production wanes as the sun sets, just as demand for energy typically peaks. Utility companies are having to ramp up production to compensate for this gap, often overstressing a grid that is not yet set up for these peaks.
  2. Traditional sources of energy like nuclear and coal are only economic when they are running all the time. If you have to turn them off at mid-day because the power is supplied by solar, they become economically unfeasible.

Due to overproduction, solar power is already being wasted in some places where the technology is widely used, like California.

The problem is most intense during summer or spring when part of the solar panels has to be turned off to avoid overloading or even damaging the power grid.

Flattening the Duck

With more countries starting to rely on solar power, there are many potential solutions for the duck curve being explored (and implemented):

  • Energy Storage: Overproduction of solar power during the day can be utilized by improving batteries and grid storage capacity.
  • Powering Alternatives: Extra solar power can go towards powering energy generation at night, such as pumping water for hydroelectricity or overheating a material to dissipate energy later.
  • Other Clean Sources: Unlike solar energy, sources like nuclear, hydroelectric, and geothermal can operate continuously and fill in the demand gap.

While grid managers study how to serve the new supply and demand, the duck curve is one of the greatest challenges facing renewable energy.

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Energy Shift

How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?

Copper and lithium will require the highest number of new mines.

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This graphic estimates the number of mines needed to meet the 2030 demand for energy transition materials.

How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?

The energy transition relies on the minerals necessary to build electric vehicles, batteries, solar farms, and wind turbines. In an economy moving away from fossil fuels every day, sourcing the materials required for this shift presents one of the biggest challenges.
This graphic forecasts the number of mines that must be developed to meet the expected demand for energy transition raw materials and chemicals by 2030. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence as of November 2024.

Nearly 300 Mines

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, meeting global battery demand by 2030 would require 293 new mines or plants.

Mineral2024 Supply (t)2030 Demand (t)Supply Needed (t)No. of Mines/PlantsType
Lithium1,181,0002,728,0001,547,00052Mine
Cobalt272,000401,000129,00026Mine
Nickel3,566,0004,949,0001,383,00028Mine
Natural Graphite1,225,0002,933,0001,708,00031Mine
Synthetic Graphite1,820,0002,176,000356,00012Plant
Manganese90,000409,000319,00021Plant
Purified Phosphoric Acid6,493,0009,001,0002,508,00033Plant
Copper22,912,00026,576,0003,664,00061Mine
Rare Earths83,711116,66332,95229Mine

Copper, used in wires and other applications, and lithium, essential for batteries, will require the most significant number of new mines.

Manganese production would need to increase more than fourfold to meet anticipated demand.

Not an Easy Task

Building new mines is one of the biggest challenges in reaching the expected demand.

After discovery and exploration, mineral projects must go through a lengthy process of research, permitting, and funding before becoming operational.

In the U.S., for instance, developing a new mine can take 29 years.

In contrast, Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Laos have some of the shortest development times in the world, at roughly 10 to 15 years.

 

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Energy Shift

Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources

Europe depends entirely on China for heavy rare earth elements, critical for technologies such as hybrid cars and fiber optics.

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This graphic shows the percentage of EU raw material supply sourced from China for 12 raw materials used in various industries.

Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Despite efforts by European countries to reduce their reliance on China for critical materials, the region remains heavily dependent on Chinese resources.

This graphic shows the percentage of EU raw material supply sourced from China for 12 raw materials used in various industries. Bloomberg published this data in May 2024 based on European Commission research.

China’s Dominance in Clean Energy Minerals

Europe is 100% dependent on China for heavy rare earth elements used in technologies such as hybrid cars, fiber optics, and nuclear power.

Additionally, 97% of the magnesium consumed in Europe, for uses ranging from aerospace alloys to automotive parts, comes from the Asian country.

Raw MaterialPercentage Supplied by ChinaUsage
Heavy rare earth elements100%nuclear reactors, TV screens, fiber optics
Magnesium97%Aerospace alloys, automotive parts
Light rare earth elements85%Catalysts, aircraft engines, magnets
Lithium79%Batteries, pharmaceuticals, ceramics
Gallium71%Semiconductors, LEDs, solar panels
Scandium67%Aerospace components, power generation, sports equipment
Bismuth65%Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, low-melting alloys
Vanadium62%Steel alloys, aerospace, tools
Baryte45%Oil and gas drilling, paints, plastics
Germanium45%Fiber optics, infrared optics, electronics
Natural graphite40%Batteries, lubricants, refractory materials
Tungsten32%Cutting tools, electronics, heavy metal alloys

Almost 80% of the lithium in electric vehicles and electronics batteries comes from China.

Assessing the Risks

The EU faces a pressing concern over access to essential materials, given the apprehension that China could “weaponize” its dominance of the sector.

One proposed solution is the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which entered into force in May 2024.

The act envisions a quota of 10% of all critical raw materials consumed in the EU to be produced within the EU.

Additionally, it calls for a significant increase in recycling efforts, totaling up to 25% of annual consumption in the EU. Lastly, it sets the target of reducing dependency for any critical raw material on a single non-EU country to less than 65% by 2030.

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