Energy Shift
The Solar Power Duck Curve Explained
The Solar Power Duck Curve Explained
With the increasing demand for electricity as the world shifts away from fossil fuels, cleaner sources of energy like solar and wind are becoming more and more common.
However, as more solar power is introduced into our grids, operators are dealing with a new problem that can be visualized as the “duck curve.”
Origins of the Duck Curve
In a world heavily reliant on electricity, utility companies have gotten better at using data to anticipate demand and trying to operate as efficiently as possible.
Usually, power companies supply the least amount of power overnight while most consumers are sleeping, ramping up during the morning as people wake up and businesses get going. Then, at sunset, energy demand peaks.
Utility companies use models to predict demand and operate as efficiently as possible by supplying more power during times of higher demand. But the introduction of solar power has brought about problems in these demand curve models.
Since solar power relies on the Sun, peak solar production occurs around midday, when electricity demand is often on the lower end. As a result, energy production is higher than it needs to be, and net demand—total demand minus wind and solar production—falls. Then, when evening approaches, net demand increases, while solar power generation falls.
This discrepancy results in a net demand curve that takes the shape of a duck, and the duck curve gets more pronounced each year, as more solar capacity is added and net demand dips lower and lower at midday.
Why the Curve is Ruffling Feathers
The drop in net demand at midday basically creates two problems:
- Solar energy production wanes as the sun sets, just as demand for energy typically peaks. Utility companies are having to ramp up production to compensate for this gap, often overstressing a grid that is not yet set up for these peaks.
- Traditional sources of energy like nuclear and coal are only economic when they are running all the time. If you have to turn them off at mid-day because the power is supplied by solar, they become economically unfeasible.
Due to overproduction, solar power is already being wasted in some places where the technology is widely used, like California.
The problem is most intense during summer or spring when part of the solar panels has to be turned off to avoid overloading or even damaging the power grid.
Flattening the Duck
With more countries starting to rely on solar power, there are many potential solutions for the duck curve being explored (and implemented):
- Energy Storage: Overproduction of solar power during the day can be utilized by improving batteries and grid storage capacity.
- Powering Alternatives: Extra solar power can go towards powering energy generation at night, such as pumping water for hydroelectricity or overheating a material to dissipate energy later.
- Other Clean Sources: Unlike solar energy, sources like nuclear, hydroelectric, and geothermal can operate continuously and fill in the demand gap.
While grid managers study how to serve the new supply and demand, the duck curve is one of the greatest challenges facing renewable energy.
Energy Shift
Ranked: The Most Carbon-Intensive Sectors in the World
Comparing average Scope 1 emission intensities by sector, according to an analysis done by S&P Global Inc.

Ranked: The Most Carbon-Intensive Sectors in the World
Ever wonder which sectors contribute the most to CO2 emissions around the world?
In this graphic, we explore the answers to that question by comparing average Scope 1 emission intensities by sector, according to an analysis done by S&P Global Inc.
Defining Scope 1 Emissions
Before diving into the data, it may be useful to understand what Scope 1 emissions entail.
Scope 1 emissions are direct greenhouse gas emissions from sources that are owned or controlled by a company, such as their facilities and vehicles.
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Scope 1 emissions can do a good job of highlighting a company’s environmental footprint because they represent the direct emissions related to manufacturing or creating a company’s products, whether they are tangible goods, digital software, or services.
Scope 2 and 3 emissions, on the other hand, encompass the indirect emissions associated with a company’s activities, including those from a company’s purchased electricity, leased assets, or investments.
Ranking the Carbon Giants
According to S&P Global’s analysis of 2019-2020 average emissions intensity by sector, utilities is the most carbon-intensive sector in the world, emitting a staggering 2,634 tonnes of CO2 per $1 million of revenue.
Materials and energy sectors follow behind, with 918 tonnes and 571 tonnes of CO2 emitted, respectively.
Sector | Sector Explanation | Scope 1 CO2 emissions per $1M of revenue, 2019-2020 |
---|---|---|
Utilities | Electric, gas, and water utilities and independent producers | 2,634 tonnes |
Materials | Chemicals, construction materials, packaging, metals, and mining | 918 tonnes |
Energy | Oil and gas exploration/production and energy equipment | 571 tonnes |
Industrials | Capital goods, commercial services, and transportation | 194 tonnes |
Consumer staples | Food, household goods, and personal products | 90 tonnes |
Consumer discretionary | Automobiles, consumer durables, apparel, and retailing | 33 tonnes |
Real estate | Real estate and real estate management | 31 tonnes |
Information technology | Software, technology hardware, and semiconductors | 24 tonnes |
Financials | Banks, insurance, and diversified financials | 19 tonnes |
Communication services | Telecommunication, media, and entertainment | 9 tonnes |
Health care | Health care equipment, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and life sciences | 7 tonnes |
S&P Global also reveals some interesting insights when it comes to various industries within the materials sector, including:
- Cement manufacturing exhibits an extremely high level of Scope 1 emissions, emitting more than double the emissions from the utilities sector (5,415 tonnes of CO2 per $1M of revenue)
- Aluminum and steel production are also quite emission-intensive, emitting 1,421 and 1,390 tonnes respectively in 2019-2020
- Relatively lower-emission materials such as gold, glass, metals and paper products bring down the average emissions of the materials sector
Given these trends, a closer look at emission-intensive industries and sectors is necessary for our urgent need to decarbonize the global economy.
Energy Shift
Ranked: The World’s Biggest Oil Producers
Just three countries—the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia—make up the lion’s share of global oil supply. Here are the world’s biggest oil producers.

Ranked: The World’s Biggest Oil Producers
This visualization originally appeared on Visual Capitalist
In 2022 oil prices peaked at more than $100 per barrel, hitting an eight-year high, after a full year of turmoil in the energy markets in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Oil companies doubled their profits and the economies of the biggest oil producers in the world got a major boost.
But which countries are responsible for most of the world’s oil supply? Using data from the Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute, we’ve visualized and ranked the world’s biggest oil producers.
Ranked: Oil Production By Country, in 2022
The U.S. has been the world’s biggest oil producer since 2018 and continued its dominance in 2022 by producing close to 18 million barrels per day (B/D). This accounted for nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
Almost three-fourths of the country’s oil production is centered around five states: Texas, New Mexico, North Dakota, Alaska, and Colorado.
We rank the other major oil producers in the world below.
Rank | Country | 2022 Production (Thousand B/D) | YoY Change | Share of World Supply |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 17,770 | +6.5% | 18.9% |
2 | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 12,136 | +10.8% | 12.9% |
3 | 🇷🇺 Russia | 11,202 | +1.8% | 11.9% |
4 | 🇨🇦 Canada | 5,576 | +3.0% | 5.9% |
5 | 🇮🇶 Iraq | 4,520 | +10.2% | 4.8% |
6 | 🇨🇳 China | 4,111 | +2.9% | 4.4% |
7 | 🇦🇪 UAE | 4,020 | +10.4% | 4.3% |
8 | 🇮🇷 Iran | 3,822 | +4.6% | 4.1% |
9 | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 3,107 | +3.9% | 3.3% |
10 | 🇰🇼 Kuwait | 3,028 | +12.0% | 3.2% |
11 | 🇲🇽 Mexico | 1,944 | +0.9% | 2.1% |
12 | 🇳🇴 Norway | 1,901 | -6.3% | 2.0% |
13 | 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan | 1,769 | -2.0% | 1.9% |
14 | 🇶🇦 Qatar | 1,768 | +1.8% | 1.9% |
15 | 🇩🇿 Algeria | 1,474 | +8.9% | 1.6% |
16 | 🇳🇬 Nigeria | 1,450 | -11.2% | 1.5% |
17 | 🇦🇴 Angola | 1,190 | +1.1% | 1.3% |
18 | 🇱🇾 Libya | 1,088 | -14.3% | 1.2% |
19 | 🇴🇲 Oman | 1,064 | +9.6% | 1.1% |
20 | 🇬🇧 UK | 778 | -11.0% | 0.8% |
21 | 🇨🇴 Colombia | 754 | +2.4% | 0.8% |
22 | 🇮🇳 India | 737 | -3.8% | 0.8% |
23 | 🇻🇪 Venezuela | 731 | +8.1% | 0.8% |
24 | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 706 | +12.4% | 0.8% |
25 | 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | 685 | -5.6% | 0.7% |
26 | 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 644 | -6.9% | 0.7% |
27 | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 613 | +0.8% | 0.7% |
28 | 🇲🇾 Malaysia | 567 | -1.7% | 0.6% |
29 | 🇪🇨 Ecuador | 481 | +1.7% | 0.5% |
30 | 🇦🇺 Australia | 420 | -5.2% | 0.4% |
31 | 🇹🇭 Thailand | 331 | -17.5% | 0.4% |
32 | 🇨🇩 Congo | 269 | -1.7% | 0.3% |
33 | 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan | 244 | +1.0% | 0.3% |
34 | 🇻🇳 Vietnam | 194 | -1.2% | 0.2% |
35 | 🇬🇦 Gabon | 191 | +5.4% | 0.2% |
36 | 🇸🇸 South Sudan | 141 | -7.6% | 0.2% |
37 | 🇵🇪 Peru | 128 | +0.5% | 0.1% |
38 | 🇹🇩 Chad | 124 | +6.2% | 0.1% |
39 | 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea | 119 | -9.2% | 0.1% |
40 | 🇸🇾 Syria | 93 | -2.7% | 0.1% |
41 | 🇮🇹 Italy | 92 | -7.9% | 0.1% |
42 | 🇧🇳 Brunei | 92 | -13.8% | 0.1% |
43 | 🇾🇪 Yemen | 81 | -2.4% | 0.1% |
44 | 🇹🇹 Trinidad & Tobago | 74 | -3.6% | 0.1% |
45 | 🇷🇴 Romania | 65 | -6.2% | 0.1% |
46 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | 65 | -1.6% | 0.1% |
47 | 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 63 | -0.9% | 0.1% |
48 | 🇸🇩 Sudan | 62 | -3.3% | 0.1% |
49 | 🇹🇳 Tunisia | 40 | -12.9% | 0.0% |
50 | Other CIS | 43 | +4.4% | 0.0% |
51 | Other Middle East | 210 | +1.2% | 0.2% |
52 | Other Africa | 283 | -3.4% | 0.3% |
53 | Other Europe | 230 | -20.5% | 0.2% |
54 | Other Asia Pacific | 177 | -10.6% | 0.2% |
55 | Other S. & Cent. America | 381 | +68.5% | 0.4% |
Total World | 93,848 | +4.2% | 100.0% |
Behind America’s considerable lead in oil production, Saudi Arabia (ranked 2nd) produced 12 million B/D, accounting for about 13% of global supply.
Russia came in third with 11 million B/D in 2022. Together, these top three oil producing behemoths, along with Canada (4th) and Iraq (5th), make up more than half of the entire world’s oil supply.
Meanwhile, the top 10 oil producers, including those ranked 6th to 10th—China, UAE, Iran, Brazil, and Kuwait—are responsible for more than 70% of the world’s oil production.
Notably, all top 10 oil giants increased their production between 2021–2022, and as a result, global output rose 4.2% year-on-year.
Major Oil Producing Regions in 2022
The Middle East accounts for one-third of global oil production and North America makes up almost another one-third of production. The Commonwealth of Independent States—an organization of post-Soviet Union countries—is another major regional producer of oil, with a 15% share of world production.
Region | 2022 Production (Thousand B/D) | YoY Change | Share of World Supply |
---|---|---|---|
Middle East | 30,743 | +9.2% | 32.8% |
North America | 25,290 | +5.3% | 27.0% |
CIS | 14,006 | +0.9% | 14.9% |
Africa | 7,043 | -3.5% | 7.5% |
Asia Pacific | 7,273 | -1.4% | 7.8% |
South & Central America | 6,361 | 7.2% | 6.8% |
Europe | 3,131 | -8.6% | 3.3% |
What’s starkly apparent in the data however is Europe’s declining share of oil production, now at 3% of the world’s supply. In the last 20 years the EU’s oil output has dropped by more than 50% due to a variety of factors, including stricter environmental regulations and a shift to natural gas.
Another lens to look at regional production is through OPEC members, which control about 35% of the world’s oil output and about 70% of the world’s oil reserves.
When taking into account the group of 10 oil exporting countries OPEC has relationships with, known as OPEC+, the share of oil production increases to more than half of the world’s supply.
Oil’s Big Balancing Act
Since it’s the very lifeblood of the modern economy, the countries that control significant amounts of oil production also reap immense political and economic benefits. Entire regions have been catapulted into prosperity and wars have been fought over the control of the resource.
At the same time, the ongoing effort to pivot to renewable energy is pushing many major oil exporters to diversify their economies. A notable example is Saudi Arabia, whose sovereign wealth fund has invested in companies like Uber and WeWork.
However, the world still needs oil, as it supplies nearly one-third of global energy demand.
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