Energy Shift
The History of Energy Transitions
The History of Energy Transitions
Over the last 200 years, how we’ve gotten our energy has changed drastically.
These changes were driven by innovations like the steam engine, oil lamps, internal combustion engines, and the wide-scale use of electricity. The shift from a primarily agrarian global economy to an industrial one called for new sources to provide more efficient energy inputs.
The current energy transition is powered by the realization that avoiding the catastrophic effects of climate change requires a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. This infographic provides historical context for the ongoing shift away from fossil fuels using data from Our World in Data and scientist Vaclav Smil.
Coal and the First Energy Transition
Before the Industrial Revolution, people burned wood and dried manure to heat homes and cook food, while relying on muscle power, wind, and water mills to grind grains. Transportation was aided by using carts driven by horses or other animals.
In the 16th and 17th centuries, the prices of firewood and charcoal skyrocketed due to shortages. These were driven by increased consumption from both households and industries as economies grew and became more sophisticated.
Consequently, industrializing economies like the UK needed a new, cheaper source of energy. They turned to coal, marking the beginning of the first major energy transition.
Year | Traditional Biomass % of Energy Mix | Coal % of Energy Mix |
---|---|---|
1800 | 98.3% | 1.7% |
1820 | 97.6% | 2.4% |
1840 | 95.1% | 4.9% |
1860 | 86.8% | 13.3% |
1880 | 73.0% | 26.7% |
1900 | 50.4% | 47.2% |
1920 | 38.4% | 54.4% |
1940 | 31.6% | 50.7% |
As coal use and production increased, the cost of producing it fell due to economies of scale. Simultaneously, technological advances and adaptations brought about new ways to use coal.
The steam engine—one of the major technologies behind the Industrial Revolution—was heavily reliant on coal, and homeowners used coal to heat their homes and cook food. This is evident in the growth of coal’s share of the global energy mix, up from 1.7% in 1800 to 47.2% in 1900.
The Rise of Oil and Gas
In 1859, Edwin L. Drake built the first commercial oil well in Pennsylvania, but it was nearly a century later that oil became a major energy source.
Before the mass production of automobiles, oil was mainly used for lamps. Oil demand from internal combustion engine vehicles started climbing after the introduction of assembly lines, and it took off after World War II as vehicle purchases soared.
Similarly, the invention of the Bunsen burner opened up new opportunities to use natural gas in households. As pipelines came into place, gas became a major source of energy for home heating, cooking, water heaters, and other appliances.
Year | Coal % of Energy Mix | Oil % of Energy Mix | Natural Gas % of Energy Mix |
---|---|---|---|
1950 | 44.2% | 19.1% | 7.3% |
1960 | 37.0% | 26.6% | 10.7% |
1970 | 25.7% | 40.2% | 14.5% |
1980 | 23.8% | 40.6% | 16.3% |
1990 | 24.4% | 35.5% | 18.4% |
2000 | 22.5% | 35.1% | 19.7% |
Coal lost the home heating market to gas and electricity, and the transportation market to oil.
Despite this, it became the world’s most important source of electricity generation and still accounts for over one-third of global electricity production today.
The Transition to Renewable Energy
Renewable energy sources are at the center of the ongoing energy transition. As countries ramp up their efforts to curb emissions, solar and wind energy capacities are expanding globally.
Here’s how the share of renewables in the global energy mix changed over the last two decades:
Year | Traditional Biomass | Renewables | Fossil Fuels | Nuclear Power |
---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 10.2% | 6.6% | 77.3% | 5.9% |
2005 | 8.7% | 6.5% | 79.4% | 5.4% |
2010 | 7.7% | 7.7% | 79.9% | 4.7% |
2015 | 6.9% | 9.2% | 79.9% | 4.0% |
2020 | 6.7% | 11.2% | 78.0% | 4.0% |
In the decade between 2000 and 2010, the share of renewables increased by just 1.1%. But the growth is speeding up—between 2010 and 2020, this figure stood at 3.5%.
Furthermore, the current energy transition is unprecedented in both scale and speed, with climate goals requiring net-zero emissions by 2050. That essentially means a complete fade-out of fossil fuels in less than 30 years and an inevitable rapid increase in renewable energy generation.
Renewable energy capacity additions were on track to set an annual record in 2021, following a record year in 2020. Additionally, global energy transition investment hit a record of $755 billion in 2021.
However, history shows that simply adding generation capacity is not enough to facilitate an energy transition. Coal required mines, canals, and railroads; oil required wells, pipelines, and refineries; electricity required generators and an intricate grid.
Similarly, a complete shift to low-carbon sources requires massive investments in natural resources, infrastructure, and grid storage, along with changes in our energy consumption habits.
Energy Shift
How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?
Copper and lithium will require the highest number of new mines.

How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?
Nearly 300 Mines
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, meeting global battery demand by 2030 would require 293 new mines or plants.
Mineral | 2024 Supply (t) | 2030 Demand (t) | Supply Needed (t) | No. of Mines/Plants | Type |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lithium | 1,181,000 | 2,728,000 | 1,547,000 | 52 | Mine |
Cobalt | 272,000 | 401,000 | 129,000 | 26 | Mine |
Nickel | 3,566,000 | 4,949,000 | 1,383,000 | 28 | Mine |
Natural Graphite | 1,225,000 | 2,933,000 | 1,708,000 | 31 | Mine |
Synthetic Graphite | 1,820,000 | 2,176,000 | 356,000 | 12 | Plant |
Manganese | 90,000 | 409,000 | 319,000 | 21 | Plant |
Purified Phosphoric Acid | 6,493,000 | 9,001,000 | 2,508,000 | 33 | Plant |
Copper | 22,912,000 | 26,576,000 | 3,664,000 | 61 | Mine |
Rare Earths | 83,711 | 116,663 | 32,952 | 29 | Mine |
Copper, used in wires and other applications, and lithium, essential for batteries, will require the most significant number of new mines.
Manganese production would need to increase more than fourfold to meet anticipated demand.
Not an Easy Task
Building new mines is one of the biggest challenges in reaching the expected demand.
After discovery and exploration, mineral projects must go through a lengthy process of research, permitting, and funding before becoming operational.
In the U.S., for instance, developing a new mine can take 29 years.
In contrast, Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Laos have some of the shortest development times in the world, at roughly 10 to 15 years.
Energy Shift
Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources
Europe depends entirely on China for heavy rare earth elements, critical for technologies such as hybrid cars and fiber optics.

Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Despite efforts by European countries to reduce their reliance on China for critical materials, the region remains heavily dependent on Chinese resources.
This graphic shows the percentage of EU raw material supply sourced from China for 12 raw materials used in various industries. Bloomberg published this data in May 2024 based on European Commission research.
China’s Dominance in Clean Energy Minerals
Europe is 100% dependent on China for heavy rare earth elements used in technologies such as hybrid cars, fiber optics, and nuclear power.
Additionally, 97% of the magnesium consumed in Europe, for uses ranging from aerospace alloys to automotive parts, comes from the Asian country.
Raw Material | Percentage Supplied by China | Usage |
---|---|---|
Heavy rare earth elements | 100% | nuclear reactors, TV screens, fiber optics |
Magnesium | 97% | Aerospace alloys, automotive parts |
Light rare earth elements | 85% | Catalysts, aircraft engines, magnets |
Lithium | 79% | Batteries, pharmaceuticals, ceramics |
Gallium | 71% | Semiconductors, LEDs, solar panels |
Scandium | 67% | Aerospace components, power generation, sports equipment |
Bismuth | 65% | Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, low-melting alloys |
Vanadium | 62% | Steel alloys, aerospace, tools |
Baryte | 45% | Oil and gas drilling, paints, plastics |
Germanium | 45% | Fiber optics, infrared optics, electronics |
Natural graphite | 40% | Batteries, lubricants, refractory materials |
Tungsten | 32% | Cutting tools, electronics, heavy metal alloys |
Almost 80% of the lithium in electric vehicles and electronics batteries comes from China.
Assessing the Risks
The EU faces a pressing concern over access to essential materials, given the apprehension that China could “weaponize” its dominance of the sector.
One proposed solution is the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which entered into force in May 2024.
The act envisions a quota of 10% of all critical raw materials consumed in the EU to be produced within the EU.
Additionally, it calls for a significant increase in recycling efforts, totaling up to 25% of annual consumption in the EU. Lastly, it sets the target of reducing dependency for any critical raw material on a single non-EU country to less than 65% by 2030.
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