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The Carbon Emissions of Producing Energy Transition Metals: Charted

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Chart of carbon emissions produced by mining and processing energy transition metals

Visualizing the Carbon Footprint of Metals Mining

Metals are the backbone of clean energy infrastructure and technologies, but the mining and processing of energy transition metals also generates significant carbon emissions.

From the lithium and cobalt needed for electric vehicle batteries to the rare earth metals which power wind turbines, procuring all of these metals comes at a cost to the environment.

This graphic uses data from a KU Leuven report to visualize the carbon emissions from the mining and processing of various energy transition metals.

The Carbon Cost of Mining Clean Energy Metals

Metals mining and processing are highly energy-intensive operations, with the sector accounting for approximately 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions. While steel production makes up a large part of mining and metal emissions on the global scale (7%), other metals also generate millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent each year.

Nickel, dysprosium, and cobalt are the three metals which generate the most CO2, with nickel having a high variability depending on the deposit type and end product.

Dysprosium is an essential rare earth metal that is used in neodymium-based magnets found in wind turbines and electric vehicles. Nickel is primarily used in the production of stainless steel, but it is also essential alongside cobalt for the production of nickel-cobalt-aluminum and nickel-manganese=cobalt cathodes for EV batteries.

As a result, the demand for these metals is expected to increase significantly over the next three decades:

MetalEnergy Transition Demand by 2030Energy Transition Demand by 2050
Aluminum15-22 Mt25-42 Mt
Copper5.5-8 Mt9-15 Mt
Zinc0.7-1.5 Mt1.5-2.7 Mt
Lithium1,900-3,000 kt3,700-8,000 kt
Nickel1,000-1,800 kt1,800-4,000 kt
Silicon650-1,250 kt1,000-1,700 kt
Cobalt130-210 kt270-600 kt
Neodymium65-75 kt140-170 kt
Praseodymium20-22 kt45-55 kt
Dysprosium 2.3-4 kt3.5-7 kt

Source: KU Leuven
Amounts in metric tonnes
Mt = million metric tonnes, kt = thousand metric tonnes

While electric vehicles decarbonize automotive emissions, producing the low estimates of the nickel and cobalt needed for the global energy transition (one million tonnes of nickel and 130,000 tonnes of cobalt) would result in almost 25 million tonnes of CO2 emissions.

Understanding Nickel and Lithium’s Variability in CO2 Emissions

Mining is a highly energy and carbon-intensive process due to the large amounts of heavy machinery and equipment required to extract ore from the ground. However, it’s the processing stages of smelting and refining that typically generate the most carbon emissions.

As seen with lithium and nickel on the chart, these emissions can vary greatly depending on the deposit type and processing methods used to make different end products.

  • Compared to nickel sulfide projects, nickel laterite projects can require between 2.5-6x more energy.
  • Along with this, producing high-purity class 1 nickel metal emits around 13 kg of CO2 per kg of nickel, while ferronickel (class 2 nickel) emits about 45 kg of CO2 per kilogram of nickel content.

Similarly, lithium production emissions also vary depending on their deposit type and end product.

  • Generally, lithium brine projects generate about one-third of the CO2 emissions of a spodumene project.
  • Along with this, whether brine or spodumene, producing lithium hydroxide as the end product rather than lithium carbonate produces almost double the emissions.

While there’s plenty of variability, even the lower end of the ranges for nickel and lithium production results in large amounts of carbon emissions.

Mining’s Additional Environmental Costs

Along with carbon emissions from mining and processing operations, these projects have additional tolls on the environment.

Open pit mines dig up vast areas of land spanning multiple kilometers, releasing large amounts of dust and asbestos-like minerals. Along with this, mineral processing operations consume large amounts of water, and resulting mine tailings pose various risks if not stored and disposed of properly.

Simply put, the energy transition will require large amounts of land, energy, and water for the carbon-intensive process of metals mining and refining.

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Energy Shift

How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?

Copper and lithium will require the highest number of new mines.

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This graphic estimates the number of mines needed to meet the 2030 demand for energy transition materials.

How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?

The energy transition relies on the minerals necessary to build electric vehicles, batteries, solar farms, and wind turbines. In an economy moving away from fossil fuels every day, sourcing the materials required for this shift presents one of the biggest challenges.
This graphic forecasts the number of mines that must be developed to meet the expected demand for energy transition raw materials and chemicals by 2030. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence as of November 2024.

Nearly 300 Mines

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, meeting global battery demand by 2030 would require 293 new mines or plants.

Mineral2024 Supply (t)2030 Demand (t)Supply Needed (t)No. of Mines/PlantsType
Lithium1,181,0002,728,0001,547,00052Mine
Cobalt272,000401,000129,00026Mine
Nickel3,566,0004,949,0001,383,00028Mine
Natural Graphite1,225,0002,933,0001,708,00031Mine
Synthetic Graphite1,820,0002,176,000356,00012Plant
Manganese90,000409,000319,00021Plant
Purified Phosphoric Acid6,493,0009,001,0002,508,00033Plant
Copper22,912,00026,576,0003,664,00061Mine
Rare Earths83,711116,66332,95229Mine

Copper, used in wires and other applications, and lithium, essential for batteries, will require the most significant number of new mines.

Manganese production would need to increase more than fourfold to meet anticipated demand.

Not an Easy Task

Building new mines is one of the biggest challenges in reaching the expected demand.

After discovery and exploration, mineral projects must go through a lengthy process of research, permitting, and funding before becoming operational.

In the U.S., for instance, developing a new mine can take 29 years.

In contrast, Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Laos have some of the shortest development times in the world, at roughly 10 to 15 years.

 

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Energy Shift

Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources

Europe depends entirely on China for heavy rare earth elements, critical for technologies such as hybrid cars and fiber optics.

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This graphic shows the percentage of EU raw material supply sourced from China for 12 raw materials used in various industries.

Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Despite efforts by European countries to reduce their reliance on China for critical materials, the region remains heavily dependent on Chinese resources.

This graphic shows the percentage of EU raw material supply sourced from China for 12 raw materials used in various industries. Bloomberg published this data in May 2024 based on European Commission research.

China’s Dominance in Clean Energy Minerals

Europe is 100% dependent on China for heavy rare earth elements used in technologies such as hybrid cars, fiber optics, and nuclear power.

Additionally, 97% of the magnesium consumed in Europe, for uses ranging from aerospace alloys to automotive parts, comes from the Asian country.

Raw MaterialPercentage Supplied by ChinaUsage
Heavy rare earth elements100%nuclear reactors, TV screens, fiber optics
Magnesium97%Aerospace alloys, automotive parts
Light rare earth elements85%Catalysts, aircraft engines, magnets
Lithium79%Batteries, pharmaceuticals, ceramics
Gallium71%Semiconductors, LEDs, solar panels
Scandium67%Aerospace components, power generation, sports equipment
Bismuth65%Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, low-melting alloys
Vanadium62%Steel alloys, aerospace, tools
Baryte45%Oil and gas drilling, paints, plastics
Germanium45%Fiber optics, infrared optics, electronics
Natural graphite40%Batteries, lubricants, refractory materials
Tungsten32%Cutting tools, electronics, heavy metal alloys

Almost 80% of the lithium in electric vehicles and electronics batteries comes from China.

Assessing the Risks

The EU faces a pressing concern over access to essential materials, given the apprehension that China could “weaponize” its dominance of the sector.

One proposed solution is the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which entered into force in May 2024.

The act envisions a quota of 10% of all critical raw materials consumed in the EU to be produced within the EU.

Additionally, it calls for a significant increase in recycling efforts, totaling up to 25% of annual consumption in the EU. Lastly, it sets the target of reducing dependency for any critical raw material on a single non-EU country to less than 65% by 2030.

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