Energy Shift
The Carbon Emissions of Producing Energy Transition Metals: Charted
Visualizing the Carbon Footprint of Metals Mining
Metals are the backbone of clean energy infrastructure and technologies, but the mining and processing of energy transition metals also generates significant carbon emissions.
From the lithium and cobalt needed for electric vehicle batteries to the rare earth metals which power wind turbines, procuring all of these metals comes at a cost to the environment.
This graphic uses data from a KU Leuven report to visualize the carbon emissions from the mining and processing of various energy transition metals.
The Carbon Cost of Mining Clean Energy Metals
Metals mining and processing are highly energy-intensive operations, with the sector accounting for approximately 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions. While steel production makes up a large part of mining and metal emissions on the global scale (7%), other metals also generate millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent each year.
Nickel, dysprosium, and cobalt are the three metals which generate the most CO2, with nickel having a high variability depending on the deposit type and end product.
Dysprosium is an essential rare earth metal that is used in neodymium-based magnets found in wind turbines and electric vehicles. Nickel is primarily used in the production of stainless steel, but it is also essential alongside cobalt for the production of nickel-cobalt-aluminum and nickel-manganese=cobalt cathodes for EV batteries.
As a result, the demand for these metals is expected to increase significantly over the next three decades:
Metal | Energy Transition Demand by 2030 | Energy Transition Demand by 2050 |
---|---|---|
Aluminum | 15-22 Mt | 25-42 Mt |
Copper | 5.5-8 Mt | 9-15 Mt |
Zinc | 0.7-1.5 Mt | 1.5-2.7 Mt |
Lithium | 1,900-3,000 kt | 3,700-8,000 kt |
Nickel | 1,000-1,800 kt | 1,800-4,000 kt |
Silicon | 650-1,250 kt | 1,000-1,700 kt |
Cobalt | 130-210 kt | 270-600 kt |
Neodymium | 65-75 kt | 140-170 kt |
Praseodymium | 20-22 kt | 45-55 kt |
Dysprosium | 2.3-4 kt | 3.5-7 kt |
Source: KU Leuven
Amounts in metric tonnes
Mt = million metric tonnes, kt = thousand metric tonnes
While electric vehicles decarbonize automotive emissions, producing the low estimates of the nickel and cobalt needed for the global energy transition (one million tonnes of nickel and 130,000 tonnes of cobalt) would result in almost 25 million tonnes of CO2 emissions.
Understanding Nickel and Lithium’s Variability in CO2 Emissions
Mining is a highly energy and carbon-intensive process due to the large amounts of heavy machinery and equipment required to extract ore from the ground. However, it’s the processing stages of smelting and refining that typically generate the most carbon emissions.
As seen with lithium and nickel on the chart, these emissions can vary greatly depending on the deposit type and processing methods used to make different end products.
- Compared to nickel sulfide projects, nickel laterite projects can require between 2.5-6x more energy.
- Along with this, producing high-purity class 1 nickel metal emits around 13 kg of CO2 per kg of nickel, while ferronickel (class 2 nickel) emits about 45 kg of CO2 per kilogram of nickel content.
Similarly, lithium production emissions also vary depending on their deposit type and end product.
- Generally, lithium brine projects generate about one-third of the CO2 emissions of a spodumene project.
- Along with this, whether brine or spodumene, producing lithium hydroxide as the end product rather than lithium carbonate produces almost double the emissions.
While there’s plenty of variability, even the lower end of the ranges for nickel and lithium production results in large amounts of carbon emissions.
Mining’s Additional Environmental Costs
Along with carbon emissions from mining and processing operations, these projects have additional tolls on the environment.
Open pit mines dig up vast areas of land spanning multiple kilometers, releasing large amounts of dust and asbestos-like minerals. Along with this, mineral processing operations consume large amounts of water, and resulting mine tailings pose various risks if not stored and disposed of properly.
Simply put, the energy transition will require large amounts of land, energy, and water for the carbon-intensive process of metals mining and refining.
Energy Shift
The ESG Challenges for Transition Metals
Can energy transition metals markets ramp up production to satisfy demand while meeting ever-more stringent ESG requirements?

The ESG Challenges for Transition Metals
An accelerated energy transition is needed to respond to climate change.
According to the Paris Agreement, 196 countries have already committed to limiting global warming to below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C. However, changing the energy system after over a century of burning fossil fuels comes with challenges.
In the above graphic from our sponsor Wood Mackenzie, we discuss the challenges that come with the increasing demand for transition metals.
Building Blocks of a Decarbonized World
Mined commodities like lithium, cobalt, graphite and rare earths are critical to producing electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, and other technologies necessary to burn fewer fossil fuels and reduce overall carbon emissions.
EVs, for example, can have up to six times more minerals than a combustion vehicle.
As a result, the extraction and refining of these metals will need to be expedited to limit the rise of global temperatures.
Here’s the outlook for different metals under Wood Mackenzie’s Accelerated Energy Transition (AET) scenario, in which the world is on course to limit the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times to 1.5°C by the end of this century.
Metal | Demand Outlook (%) 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Lithium | +260% | +520% | +780% | +940% |
Cobalt | +170% | +210% | +240% | +270% |
Graphite | +320% | +660% | +940% | +1100% |
Neodymium | +170% | +210% | +240% | +260% |
Dysprosium | +120% | +160% | +180% | +200% |
Graphite demand is expected to soar 1,100% by 2040, as demand for lithium is expected to jump 940% over this time.
A Challenge to Satisfy the Demand for Lithium
Lithium-ion batteries are indispensable for transport electrification and are also commonly used in cell phones, laptop computers, cordless power tools, and other devices.
Lithium demand in an AET scenario is estimated to reach 6.7 million tons by 2050, nine times more than 2022 levels.
In the same scenario, EV sales will double by 2030, making the demand for Li-ion batteries quadruple by 2050.
The ESG Challenge with Cobalt
Another metal in high demand is cobalt, used in rechargeable batteries in smartphones and laptops and also in lithium-ion batteries for vehicles.
Increasing production comes with significant environmental and social risks, as cobalt reserves and mine production are concentrated in regions and countries with substantial ESG problems.
Currently, 70% of mined cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where nearly three-quarters of the population lives in extreme poverty.
Country | 2021 Production (Tonnes) |
---|---|
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo | 120,000 |
🇦🇺 Australia | 5,600 |
🇵🇠Philippines | 4,500 |
🇨🇦 Canada | 4,300 |
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | 3,000 |
🇲🇬 Madagascar | 2,500 |
🇲🇦 Morocco | 2,300 |
🇨🇳 China | 2,200 |
🇨🇺 Cuba | 2,200 |
🇷🇺 Russia | 2,200 |
🇮🇩 Indonesia | 2,100 |
🇺🇸 U.S. | 700 |
Around one-fifth of cobalt mined in the DRC comes from small-scale artisanal mines, many of which rely on child labor.
Considering other obstacles like rising costs due to reserve depletion and surging resource nationalism, a shortfall in the cobalt market can emerge as early as 2024, according to Wood Mackenzie. Battery recycling, if fully utilised, can ease the upcoming supply shortage, but it cannot fill the entire gap.
Rare Earths: Winners and Losers
Rare earths are used in EVs and wind turbines but also in petroleum refining and gas vehicles. Therefore, an accelerated energy transition presents a mixed bag.
Using permanent magnets in applications like electric motors, sensors, and magnetic recording and storage media is expected to boost demand for materials like neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr) oxide.
On the contrary, as the world shifts from gas vehicles to EVs, declining demand from catalytic converters in fossil fuel-powered vehicles will impact lanthanum (La) and cerium (Ce).
Taking all into consideration, the demand for rare earths in an accelerated energy transition is forecasted to increase by 233% between 2020 and 2050. In this scenario, existing producers would be impacted by a short- to medium-term supply deficit.
The ESG dilemma
There is a clear dilemma for energy transition metals in an era of unprecedented demand. Can vital energy transition metals markets ramp up production fast enough to satisfy demand, while also revolutionising supply chains to meet ever-more stringent ESG requirements?
Understanding the challenges and how to capitalise on this investment opportunity has become more important than ever.
Sign up to Wood Mackenzie’s Inside Track to learn more about the impact of an accelerated energy transition on mining and metals.
Energy Shift
Mapped: Asia’s Biggest Sources of Electricity by Country
Asia is on its way to account for half of the world’s electricity generation by 2025. How is this growing demand currently being met?

Mapped: Asia’s Biggest Sources of Electricity by Country
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that Asia will account for half of the world’s electricity consumption by 2025, with one-third of global electricity being consumed in China.
To explore how this growing electricity demand is currently being met, the above graphic maps out Asia’s main sources of electricity by country, using data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy and the IEA.
A Coal-Heavy Electricity Mix
Although clean energy has been picking up pace in Asia, coal currently makes up more than half of the continent’s electricity generation.
No Asian countries rely on wind, solar, or nuclear energy as their primary source of electricity, despite the combined share of these sources doubling over the last decade.
% of total electricity mix, 2011 | % of total electricity mix, 2021Â | |
---|---|---|
Coal | 55% | 52%Â |
Natural Gas | 19% | 17% |
Hydro | 12% | 14% |
Nuclear | 5% | 5% |
Wind | 1% | 4% |
Solar | 0% | 4% |
Oil | 6% | 2% |
Biomass | 1% | 2% |
Total Electricity Generated | 9,780 terawatt-hours | 15,370 terawatt-hours |
The above comparison shows that the slight drops in the continent’s reliance on coal, natural gas, and oil in the last decade have been absorbed by wind, solar, and hydropower. The vast growth in total electricity generated, however, means that a lot more fossil fuels are being burned now (in absolute terms) than at the start of the last decade, despite their shares dropping.
Following coal, natural gas comes in second place as Asia’s most used electricity source, with most of this demand coming from the Middle East and Russia.
Zooming in: China’s Big Electricity Demand
While China accounted for just 5% of global electricity demand in 1990, it is en route to account for 33% by 2025. The country is already the largest electricity producer in the world by far, annually generating nearly double the electricity produced by the second largest electricity producer in the world, the United States.
With such a large demand, the current source of China’s electricity is worthy of consideration, as are its plans for its future electricity mix.
Currently, China is one of the 14 Asian countries that rely on coal as its primary source of electricity. In 2021, the country drew 62% of its electricity from coal, a total of 5,339 TWh of energy. To put that into perspective, this is approximately three times all of the electricity generated in India in the same year.
Following coal, the remainder of China’s electricity mix is as follows.
Source | % of total electricity mix (China, 2021)Â |
---|---|
Coal | 62% |
Hydropower | 15% |
Wind | 8% |
Nuclear | 5% |
Solar | 4% |
Natural Gas | 3% |
Biomass | 2% |
Despite already growing by 1.5x in the last decade, China’s demand for electricity is still growing. Recent developments in the country’s clean energy infrastructure point to most of this growth being met by renewables.
China does also have ambitious plans in place for its clean energy transition beyond the next few years. These include increasing its solar capacity by 667% between 2025 and 2060, as well as having wind as its primary source of electricity by 2060.
Asia’s Road to Clean Energy
According to the IEA, the world reached a new all-time high in power generation-related emissions in 2022, primarily as a result of the growth in fossil-fuel-generated electricity in the Asia Pacific.
With that said, these emissions are set to plateau by 2025, with a lot of the global growth in renewables and nuclear power being seen in Asia.
Currently, nuclear power is of particular interest in the continent, especially with 2022’s energy crisis highlighting the need for energy independence and security. India, for instance, is set to have an 80% growth in its nuclear electricity generation in the next two years, with Japan, South Korea, and China following suit in increasing their nuclear capacity.
The road ahead also hints at other interesting insights, specifically when it comes to hydropower in Asia. With heatwaves and droughts becoming more and more commonplace as a result of climate change, the continent may be poised to learn some lessons from Europe’s record-low hydropower generation in 2022, diverting its time and resources to other forms of clean energy, like wind and solar.
Whatever the future holds, one thing is clear: with ambitious plans already underway, Asia’s electricity mix may look significantly different within the next few decades.
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