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The Massive Impact of EVs on Commodities in One Chart

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The Massive Impact of EVs on Commodities in One Chart

The Massive Impact of EVs on Commodities

How demand would change in a 100% EV world

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

What would happen if you flipped a switch, and suddenly every new car that came off assembly lines was electric?

It’s obviously a thought experiment, since right now EVs have close to just 1% market share worldwide. We’re still years away from EVs even hitting double-digit demand on a global basis, and the entire supply chain is built around the internal combustion engine, anyways.

At the same time, however, the scenario is interesting to consider. One recent projection, for example, put EVs at a 16% penetration by 2030 and then 51% by 2040. This could be conservative depending on the changing regulatory environment for manufacturers – after all, big markets like China, France, and the U.K. have recently announced that they plan on banning gas-powered vehicles in the near future.

The Thought Experiment

We discovered this “100% EV world” thought experiment in a UBS report that everyone should read. As a part of their UBS Evidence Lab initiative, they tore down a Chevy Bolt to see exactly what is inside, and then had 39 of the bank’s analysts weigh in on the results.

After breaking down the metals and other materials used in the vehicle, they noticed a considerable amount of variance from what gets used in a standard gas-powered car. It wasn’t just the battery pack that made a difference – it was also the body and the permanent-magnet synchronous motor that had big implications.

As a part of their analysis, they extrapolated the data for a potential scenario where 100% of the world’s auto demand came from Chevy Bolts, instead of the current auto mix.

The Implications

If global demand suddenly flipped in this fashion, here’s what would happen:

MaterialDemand increaseNotes
Lithium2,898%Needed in all lithium-ion batteries
Cobalt1,928%Used in the Bolt's NMC cathode
Rare Earths655%Bolt uses neodymium in permanent magnet motor
Graphite524%Used in the anode of lithium-ion batteries
Nickel105%Used in the Bolt's NMC cathode
Copper22%Used in permanent magnet motor and wiring
Manganese14%Used in the Bolt's NMC cathode
Aluminum13%Used to reduce weight of vehicle
Silicon0%Bolt uses 6-10x more semiconductors
Steel-1%Uses 7% less steel, but fairly minimal impact on market
PGMs-53%Catalytic converters not needed in EVs

Some caveats we think are worth noting:

The Bolt is not a Tesla
The Bolt uses an NMC cathode formulation (nickel, manganese, and cobalt in a 1:1:1 ratio), versus Tesla vehicles which use NCA cathodes (nickel, cobalt, and aluminum, in an estimated 16:3:1 ratio). Further, the Bolt uses an permanent-magnet synchronous motor, which is different from Tesla’s AC induction motor – the key difference there being rare earth usage.

Big Markets, small markets:
Lithium, cobalt, and graphite have tiny markets, and they will explode in size with any notable increase in EV demand. The nickel market, which is more than $20 billion per year, will also more than double in this scenario. It’s also worth noting that the Bolt uses low amounts of nickel in comparison to Tesla cathodes, which are 80% nickel.

Meanwhile, the 100% EV scenario barely impacts the steel market, which is monstrous to begin with. The same can be said for silicon, even though the Bolt uses 6-10x more semiconductors than a regular car. The market for PGMs like platinum and palladium, however, gets decimated in this hypothetical scenario – that’s because their use as catalysts in combustion engines are a primary source of demand.

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Electrification

Visualizing Peru’s Silver Mining Strength

With a rich history of mining, Peru plays a vital role in supplying the world with silver for clean energy technologies and electrification.

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Peru's Silver Mining Strength

Visualizing Peru’s Silver Mining Strength

Peru’s silver mining industry is critical as the world progresses towards a clean energy transition. Silver’s use in EVs, solar energy, and mobile technologies will require ready supplies to meet demand.

Peru will be centre stage as the world’s second-largest producer of the precious metal.

This graphic sponsored by Silver X showcases Peru’s silver mining strength on the global scale, putting in perspective the country’s prolific production.

Global Silver Production by Country

Mexico, Peru, and China dominate global silver production, with these countries producing more than double the silver of any other country outside of the top three.

In terms of regional production, Central and South America provide the backbone for the world’s silver industry. With five nations in the top 10 producers, these regions delivered ~50% of the world’s 2020 silver production.

Country2020 Silver Production (in million ounces)Share of Global Silver Production
Mexico178.122.7%
Peru109.714.0%
China108.613.8%
Chile47.46.0%
Australia43.85.6%
Russia42.55.4%
Poland39.45.0%
United States31.74.0%
Bolivia29.93.8%
Argentina22.92.9%
World Total784.4100%

Along with being the top silver mining regions in the world, Central and South America silver production expects to have the strongest rebound in 2021.

While global silver production could increase by 8.2%, Central and South America’s production could rise by 12.1%.

Peru can feed this growth, with the country’s exploration investment forecast for this year expected to reach up to $300 million with over 60 projects currently in various stages of development.

The South American Powerhouse: Peru’s Silver Mining Strength

Despite its current silver production, there remains more to mine and explore. In fact, Peru holds the majority of the world’s silver reserves with 18.2%, making it the global focal point for silver exploration and future production.

CountrySilver Reserves (in tons)Share of World Silver
Peru91,00018.2%
China41,0008.2%
Mexico37,0007.4%
Chile26,0005.2%
Australia25,0005.0%
Other countries280,00056%
World total500,000100%

While 2020 and 2021 saw slowdowns in mineral production, Peru’s metallic mining subsector increased by 5.1% in August 2021 compared to the same month last year. The country’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics also highlighted a double-digit rise in silver production of 22.7% compared to August of last year.

Satiating the World’s Silver Demand

As silver demand is forecasted to increase by 15% just in 2021, silver supply constraints are a clear roadblock for clean energy technologies and electric vehicle production. With Peru’s annual silver production forecasted to grow by more than 27% by 2024, the country is looking to solve the world’s growing silver supply crunch.

The nation’s strong credit ratings and well-established mining sector offers investors a unique opportunity to tap into the growth of Peru and its silver industry, while powering renewable energy and electric vehicle production.

As a Peru-based mineral development and exploration company, Silver X Mining is working to produce and uncover the silver deposits that will provide the world with the metal it needs for cleaner technologies.

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Ranked: The Top 10 EV Battery Manufacturers

With an increasing interest in electric vehicles (EVs), the battery market is now a $27 billion per year business.

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The Top EV Battery Manufacturers

Ranked: The Top 10 EV Battery Manufacturers

With increasing interest in electric vehicles (EVs) from consumers, the market for lithium-ion EV batteries is now a $27 billion per year business.

According to industry experts, high demand has boosted battery manufacturers’ profits and brought heavy competition to the market. And by 2027, the market could further grow to $127 billion as consumers embrace more affordable EVs.

Asian Powerhouses of Battery Production

Besides being a manufacturing powerhouse of vehicle parts, Asia is fast becoming a hotbed for innovation in the battery sector.

No wonder, the top 10 EV battery manufacturers by market share are all headquartered in Asian countries, concentrated in China, Japan, and South Korea.

RankCompany2021 Market ShareCountry
#1CATL32.5%China 🇨🇳
#2LG Energy Solution21.5%Korea 🇰🇷
#3Panasonic14.7%Japan 🇯🇵
#4BYD6.9%China 🇨🇳
#5Samsung SDI5.4%Korea 🇰🇷
#6SK Innovation5.1%Korea 🇰🇷
#7CALB2.7%China 🇨🇳
#8AESC2.0%Japan 🇯🇵
#9Guoxuan2.0%China 🇨🇳
#10PEVE1.3%Japan 🇯🇵
n/aOther6.1%ROW

According to data from SNE Research, the top three battery makers—CATL, LG, and, Panasonic—combine for nearly 70% of the EV battery manufacturing market.

Chinese Dominance

Based in China’s coastal city of Ningde, best known for its tea plantations, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) has risen in less than 10 years to become the biggest global battery group.

The Chinese company provides lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries to Tesla, Peugeot, Hyundai, Honda, BMW, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Volvo, and shares in the company gained 160% in 2020, lifting CATL’s market capitalization to almost $186 billion.

CATL counts nine people on the Forbes list of global billionaires. Its founder, Zeng Yuqun, born in a poor village in 1968 during the Chinese Cultural Revolution, is now worth almost as much as Alibaba founder Jack Ma.

China also hosts the fourth biggest battery manufacturer, Warren Buffett-backed BYD.

Competition for CATL Outside China

Outside China, CATL faces tough competition from established players LG and Panasonic, respectively second and third on our ranking.

With more than 100 years of history, Panasonic has Tesla and Toyota among its battery buyers. LG pouch cells are used in EVs from Jaguar, Audi, Porsche, Ford, and GM.

U.S. and Europe’s Plans for Battery Production

President Joe Biden’s strategy to make the United States a powerhouse in electric vehicles includes boosting domestic production of batteries. European countries are also looking to reduce decades of growing reliance on China.

As Western countries speed up, new players are expected to rise.

A host of next-generation battery technologies are already being developed by U.S. companies, including Ionic Materials, QuantumScape, Sila Nanotechnologies, Sion Power, and, Sionic Energy.

Any direction the market moves, certainly the forecast is bright for battery producers.

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