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The Massive Impact of EVs on Commodities in One Chart

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The Massive Impact of EVs on Commodities in One Chart

The Massive Impact of EVs on Commodities

How demand would change in a 100% EV world

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

What would happen if you flipped a switch, and suddenly every new car that came off assembly lines was electric?

It’s obviously a thought experiment, since right now EVs have close to just 1% market share worldwide. We’re still years away from EVs even hitting double-digit demand on a global basis, and the entire supply chain is built around the internal combustion engine, anyways.

At the same time, however, the scenario is interesting to consider. One recent projection, for example, put EVs at a 16% penetration by 2030 and then 51% by 2040. This could be conservative depending on the changing regulatory environment for manufacturers – after all, big markets like China, France, and the U.K. have recently announced that they plan on banning gas-powered vehicles in the near future.

The Thought Experiment

We discovered this “100% EV world” thought experiment in a UBS report that everyone should read. As a part of their UBS Evidence Lab initiative, they tore down a Chevy Bolt to see exactly what is inside, and then had 39 of the bank’s analysts weigh in on the results.

After breaking down the metals and other materials used in the vehicle, they noticed a considerable amount of variance from what gets used in a standard gas-powered car. It wasn’t just the battery pack that made a difference – it was also the body and the permanent-magnet synchronous motor that had big implications.

As a part of their analysis, they extrapolated the data for a potential scenario where 100% of the world’s auto demand came from Chevy Bolts, instead of the current auto mix.

The Implications

If global demand suddenly flipped in this fashion, here’s what would happen:

MaterialDemand increaseNotes
Lithium2,898%Needed in all lithium-ion batteries
Cobalt1,928%Used in the Bolt's NMC cathode
Rare Earths655%Bolt uses neodymium in permanent magnet motor
Graphite524%Used in the anode of lithium-ion batteries
Nickel105%Used in the Bolt's NMC cathode
Copper22%Used in permanent magnet motor and wiring
Manganese14%Used in the Bolt's NMC cathode
Aluminum13%Used to reduce weight of vehicle
Silicon0%Bolt uses 6-10x more semiconductors
Steel-1%Uses 7% less steel, but fairly minimal impact on market
PGMs-53%Catalytic converters not needed in EVs

Some caveats we think are worth noting:

The Bolt is not a Tesla
The Bolt uses an NMC cathode formulation (nickel, manganese, and cobalt in a 1:1:1 ratio), versus Tesla vehicles which use NCA cathodes (nickel, cobalt, and aluminum, in an estimated 16:3:1 ratio). Further, the Bolt uses an permanent-magnet synchronous motor, which is different from Tesla’s AC induction motor – the key difference there being rare earth usage.

Big Markets, small markets:
Lithium, cobalt, and graphite have tiny markets, and they will explode in size with any notable increase in EV demand. The nickel market, which is more than $20 billion per year, will also more than double in this scenario. It’s also worth noting that the Bolt uses low amounts of nickel in comparison to Tesla cathodes, which are 80% nickel.

Meanwhile, the 100% EV scenario barely impacts the steel market, which is monstrous to begin with. The same can be said for silicon, even though the Bolt uses 6-10x more semiconductors than a regular car. The market for PGMs like platinum and palladium, however, gets decimated in this hypothetical scenario – that’s because their use as catalysts in combustion engines are a primary source of demand.

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Electrification

Charted: The Energy Demand of U.S. Data Centers

Data center power needs are projected to triple by 2030.

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bar chart showing energy demand from data centers

Charted: The Energy Demand of U.S. Data Centers

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

As the digital economy accelerates and generative AI becomes more deeply embedded in business and daily life, the physical infrastructure supporting these technologies is undergoing a transformative explosion.

In this graphic, we use data from McKinsey to show current and projected energy demand from data centers in the United States. Data is from October 2023.

U.S. Data Centers Could Quadruple Power Demand by 2030

Today, data centers account for roughly 4% of total U.S. electricity consumption. But by 2030, that share is projected to rise to 12%, driven by unprecedented growth in computing power, storage needs, and AI model training.

In fact, U.S. data center energy demand is set to jump from 224 terawatt-hours in 2025 to 606 terawatt-hours in 2030.

YearConsumption (TWh)% of Total Power Demand
20231474%
20241784%
20252245%
20262927%
20273718%
20284509%
202951310%
203060612%

Meeting this projected demand could require $500 billion in new data center infrastructure, along with a vast expansion of electricity generation, grid capacity, and water-cooling systems. Generative AI alone could require 50–60 GW of additional infrastructure.

This massive investment would also depend on upgrades in permitting, land use, and supply chain logistics. For example, the lead time to power new data centers in large markets such as Northern Virginia can exceed three years. In some cases, lead times for electrical equipment are two years or more.

A Strain on the U.S. Grid

The U.S. has experienced relatively flat power demand since 2007. Models suggest that this stability could be disrupted in the coming years. Data center growth alone could account for 30–40% of all net-new electricity demand through 2030.

Unlike typical power loads, data center demand is constant, dense, and growing exponentially. Facilities often operate 24/7, with little downtime and minimal flexibility to reduce usage.

Learn More on the Voronoi App 

If you enjoyed this infographic, see how Venture Capital Investment in Generative AI has grown, on the Voronoi app.

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Electrification

Visualizing China’s Battery Recycling Dominance

In 2025, China will hold 78% of pre-treatment and 89% of refining capacity.

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Sankey chart showing China's dominant position in both the pre-treatment and refining stages of battery recycling.

Visualizing China’s Battery Recycling Dominance

Battery recycling is expected to become a cornerstone of the global energy transition as electric vehicles (EVs) and other battery-powered technologies become more widespread.

According to exclusive data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, China holds a dominant position in both the pre-treatment and refining stages of battery recycling.

Chinese Growing Dominance

Battery recycling involves two major stages. First is pre-treatment, where recycling begins. Scrap batteries are typically shredded and separated to produce a material known as black mass.

The next stage is refining, which processes black mass into valuable lithium-, nickel-, and cobalt-based chemicals for use in battery cathodes.

China’s scale, infrastructure, and early investments in battery supply chains have translated into an outsized advantage in recycling capacity.

As the largest producer and user of lithium ion batteries, the country is expected to process 3.6 million tonnes of scrap batteries in 2025, up from 1.2 million tonnes in 2022. This would account for 78% of global pre-treatment capacity, with total global capacity projected to exceed 4.6 million tonnes.

Region/Tonnes2022202320242025P
Global1.5M2.4M2.8M4.6M
China1.2M1.8M2.1M3.6M
Asia excl. China158K231K288K361K
Europe118K133K243K416K
North America59K165K129K196K
ROW4K6K6K40K

In second place is the rest of Asia, with 361,000 tonnes, followed by Europe with 416,000 tonnes. While the U.S. attempts to reduce its reliance on China in the mineral sector, North America accounts for just 196,000 tonnes.

The refining stage is even more concentrated.

China’s black mass refining capacity is projected to nearly triple, from 895,000 tonnes in 2022 to 2.5 million tonnes by 2025—representing 89% of global capacity.

Region/Tonnes2022202320242025P
Global960K1.4M1.7M2.8M
China895K1.3M1.5M2.5M
Asia excl. China48K101K146K225K
Europe13K23K25K28K
North America4K5K5K21K
ROW01K1K32K

Refining is critical, as it converts recycled material into high-purity, battery-grade chemicals. The rest of Asia is expected to refine 225,000 tonnes, Europe 28,000 tonnes, and North America only 21,000 tonnes. Between 2022 and 2025, China’s refining capacity is projected to grow by 179%, while North America’s is expected to surge by 425%—albeit from a much smaller base.

As global demand for EVs and battery storage rises, countries looking to build domestic recycling infrastructure must accelerate investment to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains.

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