Electrification
Lithium Prices Surge on EV Demand from China
Lithium Prices Surge on EV Demand from China
Amid growing conviction on the bright future of electric vehicles (EVs), the scramble for battery metals like lithium is just beginning.
By the first week of 2022, prices for lithium carbonate, a key ingredient in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, reached a new high of 300,000 yuan or nearly $47,500 per ton in China.
The above graphic charts the exponential surge in both lithium prices and China’s EV sales between 2015 and 2021.
How Lithium Prices Changed in 2021
After brief spikes in 2016 and 2017, lithium prices were on a downtrend until 2021. With that context, it’s safe to say that the year’s 497% surge was nothing short of dramatic.
Here’s how lithium prices changed in 2021, on a quarterly basis:
Date | Lithium carbonate price per ton in China* | % increase in 2021 |
---|---|---|
January 01, 2021 | $7,328.90 | 0% |
April 01, 2021 | $13,396.90 | 82.70% |
July 01, 2021 | $14,024.40 | 91.40% |
October 01, 2021 | $27,733.70 | 278.50% |
December 31, 2021 | $43,732.80 | 496.70% |
*Represents prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate. Converted from yuan to USD via xe.com as of Jan 19, 2022.
Source: TradingEconomics
As producers struggled to keep up with rising demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate, prices increased six-fold in 2021.
This rise was amplified in October when Tesla announced a switch to LFP batteries for all of its standard-range cars. Previously, Tesla only used LFP batteries for cars produced in China.
EV Batteries and the Resurgence of LFP Cathodes
Why did Tesla make the switch?
LFP was the initial cathode chemistry used in lithium-ion batteries for EVs in China, the largest market for EVs. Over time, consumer preferences for longer driving ranges drove manufacturers towards higher-density lithium nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) cathodes, which can manage longer distances on a single charge.
However, most of the cobalt used in NMC batteries comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where cobalt mining is associated with several humanitarian issues. These concerns, along with the high material cost of cobalt, prompted automakers to look at alternative cathode chemistries.
This has caused automakers like Tesla to turn back to LFP cathodes, which do not require cobalt and are relatively cheaper to produce.
Lithium’s Electric Future
According to BloombergNEF, global EV sales were on track to hit 6.3 million units in 2021—nearly double the total of 2020.
However, despite recent growth, EV adoption has a long way to go, with EVs making up just 4.3% of global auto sales in 2020. This suggests that the future is bright for battery metals like lithium, which will likely continue to be in high demand.
Electrification
Ranked: The Top Lithium-Ion Battery Producing Countries by 2030
Chinese companies are expected to hold nearly 70% of global battery capacity by decade’s end.
Top Lithium-Ion Battery Producers by 2030
Lithium-ion batteries are essential for a clean economy due to their high energy density and efficiency. They power most portable consumer electronics, such as cell phones and laptops, and are used in the majority of today’s electric vehicles.
This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to rank the top lithium-ion battery producing countries by their forecasted capacity (measured in gigawatt-hours or GWh) in 2030.
China to Keep Dominance
Chinese companies are expected to account for nearly 70% of global battery capacity by 2030, delivering over 6,200 gigawatt-hours. Chinese giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) alone is forecasted to produce more than the combined output from Canada, France, Hungary, Germany, and the UK.
Country | 2030F capacity (GWh) | Top producers |
---|---|---|
🇨🇳 China | 6,268.3 | CATL, BYD, CALB |
🇺🇸 U.S. | 1,260.6 | Tesla, LGES, SK On |
🇩🇪 Germany | 261.8 | Tesla, Northvolt, VW |
🇭🇺 Hungary | 210.1 | CATL, SK On, Samsung |
🇨🇦 Canada | 203.8 | Northvolt, LGES, VW |
🇫🇷 France | 162.0 | Verkor, Prologium, ACC |
🇰🇷 South Korea | 94.5 | LGES, Samsung, SK On |
🇬🇧 UK | 66.9 | Envision, Tata |
Currently, China is home to six of the world’s 10 biggest battery makers. China’s battery dominance is driven by its vertical integration across the entire EV supply chain, from mining metals to producing EVs.
By 2030, the U.S. is expected to be second in battery capacity after China, with 1,261 gigawatt-hours, led by LG Energy Solution and Tesla.
In Europe, Germany is forecasted to lead in lithium-ion battery production, with 262 gigawatt-hours, most of it coming from Tesla. The company currently operates its Giga Berlin plant in the country, Tesla’s first manufacturing location in Europe.
Learn More About Batteries From Visual Capitalist
If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out Charted: Investment Needed to Meet Battery Demand by 2040. This visualization shows the total capital expenditure (capex) requirements to build capacity to meet future battery demand by 2030 and 2040.
Electrification
Visualizing the Growth of Chinese Copper Miners
Chinese miners are set to overtake major producers by 2025.
Visualizing the Growth of Chinese Copper Miners
China, with its huge manufacturing sector, is by far the biggest consumer of copper.
Currently, 70% of copper used in China is imported. As a result, the country has invested heavily in copper mines to secure future supply.
This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to compare copper output from the top three global producers with Chinese miners. Since some of the mining operations have shared ownership, this graphic takes into consideration only the portion of production relative to the company’s stake in each mine.
Chinese Miners Set to Overtake Major Producers by 2025
In 2010, Chinese miners produced a total of 1.2 million tonnes of copper. In that same year, the top producer, Chilean state miner Codelco, produced 1.8 million tonnes, while the world’s largest miner and second-largest copper producer, BHP, produced 1 million tonnes.
Over the years, however, Chinese output has surged while major miners have faced challenges. In 2023, Codelco’s production fell to its lowest level in a quarter of a century due to operational problems and project delays.
Year/millions of tonnes | Zijin | CMOC | MMG | Tongling | Other China | BHP | Freeport | Codelco |
2010 | 0.059 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.007 | 1.090 | 1.021 | 0.979 | 1.760 |
2011 | 0.061 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.956 | 0.959 | 0.959 | 1.796 |
2012 | 0.082 | 0.000 | 0.046 | 0.007 | 1.070 | 1.070 | 0.975 | 1.805 |
2013 | 0.104 | 0.003 | 0.184 | 0.007 | 1.530 | 1.129 | 1.046 | 1.791 |
2014 | 0.116 | 0.014 | 0.149 | 0.007 | 1.753 | 1.126 | 1.074 | 1.841 |
2015 | 0.126 | 0.040 | 0.199 | 0.007 | 1.810 | 1.085 | 1.230 | 1.891 |
2016 | 0.134 | 0.047 | 0.374 | 0.007 | 1.984 | 1.023 | 1.388 | 1.827 |
2017 | 0.178 | 0.155 | 0.422 | 0.011 | 1.978 | 0.995 | 1.222 | 1.842 |
2018 | 0.212 | 0.127 | 0.383 | 0.019 | 1.967 | 1.161 | 1.239 | 1.807 |
2019 | 0.299 | 0.140 | 0.315 | 0.031 | 2.046 | 1.197 | 1.104 | 1.706 |
2020 | 0.377 | 0.173 | 0.272 | 0.066 | 2.290 | 1.147 | 1.081 | 1.727 |
2021 | 0.518 | 0.192 | 0.235 | 0.093 | 2.378 | 1.068 | 1.328 | 1.728 |
2022 | 0.750 | 0.226 | 0.214 | 0.123 | 2.440 | 1.180 | 1.327 | 1.553 |
2023F | 0.828 | 0.329 | 0.236 | 0.134 | 2.298 | 1.283 | 1.302 | 1.442 |
2024F | 0.886 | 0.460 | 0.301 | 0.121 | 2.421 | 1.423 | 1.421 | 1.414 |
2025F | 0.980 | 0.467 | 0.309 | 0.158 | 2.441 | 1.471 | 1.342 | 1.531 |
2026F | 1.031 | 0.467 | 0.332 | 0.206 | 2.477 | 1.513 | 1.369 | 1.591 |
2027F | 1.036 | 0.568 | 0.332 | 0.255 | 2.467 | 1.383 | 1.345 | 1.600 |
2028F | 1.058 | 0.698 | 0.332 | 0.255 | 2.467 | 1.186 | 1.286 | 1.580 |
Meanwhile, China’s biggest copper producer, Zijin Mining, saw its production rise from 0.059 million tonnes in 2010 to 0.8 million tonnes last year.
Combined, Chinese companies produced 3.2 million tonnes of copper in 2023, compared to the combined production of 4 million tonnes by Codelco, Freeport-McMoRan (the biggest copper producer in the U.S.), and BHP.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data, Chinese miners are forecasted to surpass the three top producers in 2025, with a combined production of 4.4 million tonnes compared to 4.3 million tonnes from Codelco, BHP, and Freeport.
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