Electrification
Charted: Investment Needed to Meet Battery Demand by 2040
Investment Needed to Meet Battery Demand by 2040
With the growth of battery-powered devices, from smartphones to electric vehicles and energy storage systems, investment in the battery sector is expected to surpass $1.6 trillion by 2040.
This graphic shows the latest forecasts from our exclusive data partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to show the total capital expenditure (capex) requirements to build capacity to meet future battery demand by 2030 and 2040. Forecasts are current as of July 2024.
Raw Materials and Battery Components
Battery demand is projected to increase ninefold by 2040. As a result, the battery industry’s total capex is expected to nearly triple, rising from $567 billion in 2030 to $1.6 trillion in 2040.
Upstream, companies will focus mainly on lithium, nickel, copper, and recycling at the extraction stage.
Upstream (Capex $ bn) | 2030P | 2040P |
---|---|---|
Lithium | 94 | 188 |
Recycling | 26 | 157 |
Nickel | 56 | 119 |
Copper | 43 | 82 |
Aluminium | 9 | 19 |
Cobalt | 11 | 13 |
Synthetic Graphite | 3 | 4 |
Flake Graphite | 2 | 5 |
Manganese | 1 | 3 |
Demand for recycled materials will increase 26 times by 2040, representing the largest percentage growth in our graphic, with total capex rising from $26 billion to $157 billion.
Midstream, companies will direct most of their funds towards the cathode (the positive electrode during battery discharge), with investment increasing from $48 billion in 2030 to $157 billion in 2040.
Midstream (Capex $ bn) | 2030P | 2040P |
---|---|---|
Cathode | 48 | 157 |
Separator | 39 | 92 |
Anode | 14 | 43 |
Electrolyte | 3 | 7 |
Biggest Growth Expected Downstream
Although most of the discussion about clean technologies revolves around raw materials (mines needed to supply the demand) and new battery technologies, in the future, the downstream stage of the battery industry is expected to receive most of the investment.
This stage includes pack assembly, integration into products, distribution, and recycling or disposal of the battery.
Downstream, the total capex is expected to reach $222 billion in 2030 and increase to $686 billion by the year 2040.
Electrification
Ranked: The Top Lithium-Ion Battery Producing Countries by 2030
Chinese companies are expected to hold nearly 70% of global battery capacity by decade’s end.
Top Lithium-Ion Battery Producers by 2030
Lithium-ion batteries are essential for a clean economy due to their high energy density and efficiency. They power most portable consumer electronics, such as cell phones and laptops, and are used in the majority of today’s electric vehicles.
This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to rank the top lithium-ion battery producing countries by their forecasted capacity (measured in gigawatt-hours or GWh) in 2030.
China to Keep Dominance
Chinese companies are expected to account for nearly 70% of global battery capacity by 2030, delivering over 6,200 gigawatt-hours. Chinese giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) alone is forecasted to produce more than the combined output from Canada, France, Hungary, Germany, and the UK.
Country | 2030F capacity (GWh) | Top producers |
---|---|---|
🇨🇳 China | 6,268.3 | CATL, BYD, CALB |
🇺🇸 U.S. | 1,260.6 | Tesla, LGES, SK On |
🇩🇪 Germany | 261.8 | Tesla, Northvolt, VW |
🇭🇺 Hungary | 210.1 | CATL, SK On, Samsung |
🇨🇦 Canada | 203.8 | Northvolt, LGES, VW |
🇫🇷 France | 162.0 | Verkor, Prologium, ACC |
🇰🇷 South Korea | 94.5 | LGES, Samsung, SK On |
🇬🇧 UK | 66.9 | Envision, Tata |
Currently, China is home to six of the world’s 10 biggest battery makers. China’s battery dominance is driven by its vertical integration across the entire EV supply chain, from mining metals to producing EVs.
By 2030, the U.S. is expected to be second in battery capacity after China, with 1,261 gigawatt-hours, led by LG Energy Solution and Tesla.
In Europe, Germany is forecasted to lead in lithium-ion battery production, with 262 gigawatt-hours, most of it coming from Tesla. The company currently operates its Giga Berlin plant in the country, Tesla’s first manufacturing location in Europe.
Learn More About Batteries From Visual Capitalist
If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out Charted: Investment Needed to Meet Battery Demand by 2040. This visualization shows the total capital expenditure (capex) requirements to build capacity to meet future battery demand by 2030 and 2040.
Electrification
Visualizing the Growth of Chinese Copper Miners
Chinese miners are set to overtake major producers by 2025.
Visualizing the Growth of Chinese Copper Miners
China, with its huge manufacturing sector, is by far the biggest consumer of copper.
Currently, 70% of copper used in China is imported. As a result, the country has invested heavily in copper mines to secure future supply.
This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to compare copper output from the top three global producers with Chinese miners. Since some of the mining operations have shared ownership, this graphic takes into consideration only the portion of production relative to the company’s stake in each mine.
Chinese Miners Set to Overtake Major Producers by 2025
In 2010, Chinese miners produced a total of 1.2 million tonnes of copper. In that same year, the top producer, Chilean state miner Codelco, produced 1.8 million tonnes, while the world’s largest miner and second-largest copper producer, BHP, produced 1 million tonnes.
Over the years, however, Chinese output has surged while major miners have faced challenges. In 2023, Codelco’s production fell to its lowest level in a quarter of a century due to operational problems and project delays.
Year/millions of tonnes | Zijin | CMOC | MMG | Tongling | Other China | BHP | Freeport | Codelco |
2010 | 0.059 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.007 | 1.090 | 1.021 | 0.979 | 1.760 |
2011 | 0.061 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.956 | 0.959 | 0.959 | 1.796 |
2012 | 0.082 | 0.000 | 0.046 | 0.007 | 1.070 | 1.070 | 0.975 | 1.805 |
2013 | 0.104 | 0.003 | 0.184 | 0.007 | 1.530 | 1.129 | 1.046 | 1.791 |
2014 | 0.116 | 0.014 | 0.149 | 0.007 | 1.753 | 1.126 | 1.074 | 1.841 |
2015 | 0.126 | 0.040 | 0.199 | 0.007 | 1.810 | 1.085 | 1.230 | 1.891 |
2016 | 0.134 | 0.047 | 0.374 | 0.007 | 1.984 | 1.023 | 1.388 | 1.827 |
2017 | 0.178 | 0.155 | 0.422 | 0.011 | 1.978 | 0.995 | 1.222 | 1.842 |
2018 | 0.212 | 0.127 | 0.383 | 0.019 | 1.967 | 1.161 | 1.239 | 1.807 |
2019 | 0.299 | 0.140 | 0.315 | 0.031 | 2.046 | 1.197 | 1.104 | 1.706 |
2020 | 0.377 | 0.173 | 0.272 | 0.066 | 2.290 | 1.147 | 1.081 | 1.727 |
2021 | 0.518 | 0.192 | 0.235 | 0.093 | 2.378 | 1.068 | 1.328 | 1.728 |
2022 | 0.750 | 0.226 | 0.214 | 0.123 | 2.440 | 1.180 | 1.327 | 1.553 |
2023F | 0.828 | 0.329 | 0.236 | 0.134 | 2.298 | 1.283 | 1.302 | 1.442 |
2024F | 0.886 | 0.460 | 0.301 | 0.121 | 2.421 | 1.423 | 1.421 | 1.414 |
2025F | 0.980 | 0.467 | 0.309 | 0.158 | 2.441 | 1.471 | 1.342 | 1.531 |
2026F | 1.031 | 0.467 | 0.332 | 0.206 | 2.477 | 1.513 | 1.369 | 1.591 |
2027F | 1.036 | 0.568 | 0.332 | 0.255 | 2.467 | 1.383 | 1.345 | 1.600 |
2028F | 1.058 | 0.698 | 0.332 | 0.255 | 2.467 | 1.186 | 1.286 | 1.580 |
Meanwhile, China’s biggest copper producer, Zijin Mining, saw its production rise from 0.059 million tonnes in 2010 to 0.8 million tonnes last year.
Combined, Chinese companies produced 3.2 million tonnes of copper in 2023, compared to the combined production of 4 million tonnes by Codelco, Freeport-McMoRan (the biggest copper producer in the U.S.), and BHP.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data, Chinese miners are forecasted to surpass the three top producers in 2025, with a combined production of 4.4 million tonnes compared to 4.3 million tonnes from Codelco, BHP, and Freeport.
-
Electrification2 years ago
The Key Minerals in an EV Battery
-
Energy Shift2 years ago
What Are the Five Major Types of Renewable Energy?
-
Electrification1 year ago
The Six Major Types of Lithium-ion Batteries: A Visual Comparison
-
Electrification3 years ago
The World’s Largest Nickel Mining Companies
-
Energy Shift2 years ago
The Solar Power Duck Curve Explained
-
Real Assets2 years ago
Which Countries Have the Lowest Inflation?
-
Misc2 years ago
How Is Aluminum Made?
-
Electrification3 years ago
Breaking Down the Cost of an EV Battery Cell