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Charted: Investment Needed to Meet Battery Demand by 2040

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Investment Needed to Meet Battery Demand by 2040

With the growth of battery-powered devices, from smartphones to electric vehicles and energy storage systems, investment in the battery sector is expected to surpass $1.6 trillion by 2040.

This graphic shows the latest forecasts from our exclusive data partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to show the total capital expenditure (capex) requirements to build capacity to meet future battery demand by 2030 and 2040. Forecasts are current as of July 2024.

Raw Materials and Battery Components

Battery demand is projected to increase ninefold by 2040. As a result, the battery industry’s total capex is expected to nearly triple, rising from $567 billion in 2030 to $1.6 trillion in 2040.

Upstream, companies will focus mainly on lithium, nickel, copper, and recycling at the extraction stage.

Upstream (Capex $ bn)2030P2040P
Lithium94188
Recycling26157
Nickel56119
Copper4382
Aluminium919
Cobalt1113
Synthetic Graphite34
Flake Graphite25
Manganese13

Demand for recycled materials will increase 26 times by 2040, representing the largest percentage growth in our graphic, with total capex rising from $26 billion to $157 billion.

Midstream, companies will direct most of their funds towards the cathode (the positive electrode during battery discharge), with investment increasing from $48 billion in 2030 to $157 billion in 2040.

Midstream (Capex $ bn)2030P2040P
Cathode48157
Separator3992
Anode1443
Electrolyte37

Biggest Growth Expected Downstream

Although most of the discussion about clean technologies revolves around raw materials (mines needed to supply the demand) and new battery technologies, in the future, the downstream stage of the battery industry is expected to receive most of the investment.

This stage includes pack assembly, integration into products, distribution, and recycling or disposal of the battery.

Downstream, the total capex is expected to reach $222 billion in 2030 and increase to $686 billion by the year 2040.

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Electrification

Ranked: The Top Lithium-Ion Battery Producing Countries by 2030

Chinese companies are expected to hold nearly 70% of global battery capacity by decade’s end.

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This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to rank the top lithium-ion battery producers by their forecasted gigawatt-hour (GWh) capacity for 2030.

Top Lithium-Ion Battery Producers by 2030

Lithium-ion batteries are essential for a clean economy due to their high energy density and efficiency. They power most portable consumer electronics, such as cell phones and laptops, and are used in the majority of today’s electric vehicles.

This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to rank the top lithium-ion battery producing countries by their forecasted capacity (measured in gigawatt-hours or GWh) in 2030.

China to Keep Dominance

Chinese companies are expected to account for nearly 70% of global battery capacity by 2030, delivering over 6,200 gigawatt-hours. Chinese giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) alone is forecasted to produce more than the combined output from Canada, France, Hungary, Germany, and the UK.

Country2030F capacity (GWh)Top producers
🇨🇳 China6,268.3CATL, BYD, CALB
🇺🇸 U.S.1,260.6Tesla, LGES, SK On
🇩🇪 Germany261.8Tesla, Northvolt, VW
🇭🇺 Hungary210.1CATL, SK On, Samsung
🇨🇦 Canada203.8Northvolt, LGES, VW
🇫🇷 France162.0Verkor, Prologium, ACC
🇰🇷 South Korea94.5LGES, Samsung, SK On
🇬🇧 UK66.9Envision, Tata

Currently, China is home to six of the world’s 10 biggest battery makers. China’s battery dominance is driven by its vertical integration across the entire EV supply chain, from mining metals to producing EVs.

By 2030, the U.S. is expected to be second in battery capacity after China, with 1,261 gigawatt-hours, led by LG Energy Solution and Tesla.

In Europe, Germany is forecasted to lead in lithium-ion battery production, with 262 gigawatt-hours, most of it coming from Tesla. The company currently operates its Giga Berlin plant in the country, Tesla’s first manufacturing location in Europe.

Learn More About Batteries From Visual Capitalist

If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out Charted: Investment Needed to Meet Battery Demand by 2040. This visualization shows the total capital expenditure (capex) requirements to build capacity to meet future battery demand by 2030 and 2040.

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Electrification

Visualizing the Growth of Chinese Copper Miners

Chinese miners are set to overtake major producers by 2025.

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Chart comparing copper production of the top three cooper miners with Chinese companies.

Visualizing the Growth of Chinese Copper Miners

China, with its huge manufacturing sector, is by far the biggest consumer of copper.

Currently, 70% of copper used in China is imported. As a result, the country has invested heavily in copper mines to secure future supply.

This graphic uses exclusive data from our partner, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to compare copper output from the top three global producers with Chinese miners. Since some of the mining operations have shared ownership, this graphic takes into consideration only the portion of production relative to the company’s stake in each mine.

Chinese Miners Set to Overtake Major Producers by 2025

In 2010, Chinese miners produced a total of 1.2 million tonnes of copper. In that same year, the top producer, Chilean state miner Codelco, produced 1.8 million tonnes, while the world’s largest miner and second-largest copper producer, BHP, produced 1 million tonnes.

Over the years, however, Chinese output has surged while major miners have faced challenges. In 2023, Codelco’s production fell to its lowest level in a quarter of a century due to operational problems and project delays.

🇨🇳 China
🌐 Rest of World
Year/millions of tonnesZijinCMOCMMGTonglingOther ChinaBHPFreeportCodelco
20100.0590.0000.0010.0071.0901.0210.9791.760
20110.0610.0000.0010.0060.9560.9590.9591.796
20120.0820.0000.0460.0071.0701.0700.9751.805
20130.1040.0030.1840.0071.5301.1291.0461.791
20140.1160.0140.1490.0071.7531.1261.0741.841
20150.1260.0400.1990.0071.8101.0851.2301.891
20160.1340.0470.3740.0071.9841.0231.3881.827
20170.1780.1550.4220.0111.9780.9951.2221.842
20180.2120.1270.3830.0191.9671.1611.2391.807
20190.2990.1400.3150.0312.0461.1971.1041.706
20200.3770.1730.2720.0662.2901.1471.0811.727
20210.5180.1920.2350.0932.3781.0681.3281.728
20220.7500.2260.2140.1232.4401.1801.3271.553
2023F0.8280.3290.2360.1342.2981.2831.3021.442
2024F0.8860.4600.3010.1212.4211.4231.4211.414
2025F0.9800.4670.3090.1582.4411.4711.3421.531
2026F1.0310.4670.3320.2062.4771.5131.3691.591
2027F1.0360.5680.3320.2552.4671.3831.3451.600
2028F1.0580.6980.3320.2552.4671.1861.2861.580

Meanwhile, China’s biggest copper producer, Zijin Mining, saw its production rise from 0.059 million tonnes in 2010 to 0.8 million tonnes last year.

Combined, Chinese companies produced 3.2 million tonnes of copper in 2023, compared to the combined production of 4 million tonnes by Codelco, Freeport-McMoRan (the biggest copper producer in the U.S.), and BHP.

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data, Chinese miners are forecasted to surpass the three top producers in 2025, with a combined production of 4.4 million tonnes compared to 4.3 million tonnes from Codelco, BHP, and Freeport.

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