Real Assets
The Inflation Factor: How Rising Food and Energy Prices Impact the Economy
How Rising Food and Energy Prices Impact the Economy
Since Russiaโs invasion of Ukraine, the effects of energy supply disruptions are cascading across everything from food prices to electricity to consumer sentiment.
In response to soaring prices, many OECD countries are tapping into their strategic petroleum reserves. In fact, since March, the U.S. has sold a record one million barrels of oil per day from these reserves. This, among other factors, has led gasoline prices to fall more recentlyโyet deficits could follow into 2023, causing prices to increase.
With data from the World Bank, the above infographic charts energy shocks over the last half century and what this means for the global economy looking ahead.
Energy Price Shocks Since 1979
How does todayโs energy price shock compare to previous spikes in real terms?
U.S.$/bbl Equivalent | Crude Oil | Natural Gas | Coal |
---|---|---|---|
2022* | $93 | $170 | $61 |
2008 | $127 | $100 | $46 |
1979 | $119 | $72 | $33 |
*2022 forecast
As the above table shows, the annual price of crude oil is forecasted to average $93 per barrel equivalent in 2022โ . By comparison, during the 2008 and 1979 price shocks, crude oil averaged $127 and $119 per barrel, respectively.
What distinguishes the 2022 energy spike is that prices have soared across all fuels. Where price shocks were more or less isolated in the past, many countries such as Germany and the Netherlands are looking to coal to make up for oil supply disruptions. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices have hit record highs.
Food prices have also spiked. Driven by higher input costs across fuel, chemicals, and fertilizer, agriculture commodity prices are forecasted to rise 18% in 2022. Fertilizer prices alone could increase 70% in part due to Russiaโs dominance of the global fertilizer marketโexporting more than any country worldwide.
What are 3 Ripple Effects of Rising Energy Prices?
Oil feeds into nearly everything, from food to smartphones. In fact, the price of oil influences as much as 64% of food price movements.
How could energy and food shocks affect the world economy in the near future, and why is a lot riding on the price of oil?
1. Rising Global Inflation
In 2022, inflation became a global phenomenonโimpacting 100% of advanced countries and 87% of emerging markets and developing economies analyzed by the World Bank.
Countries With Inflation Above Target | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Apr 2022 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Emerging Markets and Developing Economies | 20% | 20% | 55% | 87% |
Advanced Economies | 9% | 8% | 67% | 100% |
Sample includes 31 emerging markets and developing economies and 12 advanced economies
By contrast, roughly two-thirds of advanced economies and just over half of emerging markets experienced inflation above target in 2021.
This has contributed to tighter monetary conditions. The table below shows how rising inflation in the U.S. has corresponded with interest rate hikes since the 1980s:
Date | Core CPI at Beginning of Cycle | Magnitude of Rate Hikes Over Course of Tightening Cycle |
---|---|---|
1979-81 | 9.3% | 9.0 p.p |
1983-84 | 4.6% | 3.0 p.p |
1986-89 | 3.6% | 4.0 p.p |
1994-95 | 2.8% | 3.0 p.p |
1999-00 | 2.0% | 1.75 p.p |
2004-06 | 1.9% | 4.25 p.p. |
2015-19 | 2.1% | 2.25 p.p |
2022-23 | 6.4% | 2.75 p.p |
2023 is an estimate based on market expectations of the level of the Fed Funds rate in mid-2023. U.S. Core CPI for 2023 based on latest data available.
In many cases, when the U.S. has rapidly tightened monetary policy in response to price pressures, emerging markets and developing economies have experienced financial crises amid higher borrowing costs.
2. Slower Global Growth
Energy price shocks could add greater headwinds to global growth prospects:
Global Growth Scenarios | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
---|---|---|---|
Baseline | 5.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% |
Including Fed tightening | 2.6% | 2.4% | |
Including Energy price spike | 2.2% | 1.6% | |
Including China COVID-19 | 2.1% | 1.5% |
Together, price spikes, hawkish monetary policy, and COVID-19 lockdowns in China could negatively impact global growth.
3. Rising Food Insecurity and Social Unrest
Even before the energy price shock of 2022, global food insecurity was increasing due to COVID-19 and mounting inflationary pressures.
Number of People in Acute Food Insecurity | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|
Sub-Saharan Africa | 97M | 119M |
Middle East and North Africa | 30M | 32M |
South Asia | 16M | 29M |
Latin America and the Caribbean | 12M | 13M |
Sustained food shortages and high food prices could send millions into acute food insecurity.
In addition, high fuel and food prices are often correlated with mass protests, political violence, and riots. While Sri Lanka and Peru have already begun to see heightened riots, Turkey and Egypt are also at risk for social unrest as the cost of living accelerates and food insecurity worsens.
Global Challenges
Since World War II, oil price shocks have been a major constraint on economic growth. As the war in Ukraine continues, the outlook for todayโs energy market is far from clear as a number of geopolitical factors could sway oil price movements and its corresponding effects.
Real Assets
Charted: If Gold Was Shared Equally, How Much Would You Get?
There are 244,000 metric tons of known gold reserves. And 8 billion people. Here’s the answer to: what if gold was shared equally?

Charted: If Gold Was Shared Equally, How Much Would You Get?
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Desired for millennia because of its shine and rarity, gold is still the safe haven asset (with fairly decent returns) in times of uncertainty.
This chart examines a hypothetical question of how much gold every person in the world would get if all discovered gold was shared equally.
Data for this graphic is sourced from the U.S. Geological Survey and from the UNโs World Population Prospects 2024.
Thereโs Not a Lot of Gold for 8 Billion People
Turns out, there really isnโt a lot of gold in the world.
To date, only 244,000 metric tons of gold have ever been discovered. This includes historical production and current known discoveries.
That works out to about 30 grams (about one troy ounce), or six gold rings, for every single human being on the planet.
Categories | Figures |
---|---|
Gold Discovered (Metric Tons) | 244,000 |
World Population | 8,161,972,572 |
Gold per Person (Metric Tons) | 0.00002989 |
Gold per Person (Grams) | 29.89 (or one ounce) |
Of course, jewelry isn’t the only use of gold (though it does account for the largest share of above-ground use).
Central banks have quite a bit in their reserves, with the U.S. holding the most at roughly 8,000 tonnes.
At sixth place China (2,200 tonnes) has been steadily increasing its reserves in the past year, in a bid to diversify foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. Treasury bonds.
Largest Gold Producers
And then thereโs all the gold beneath the ground, spread out in massive mines across the world. Of them, Australia is home to two in the top 10, and is also the second-largest producer.
Whoโs the largest producer? Thatโs Chinaโeven though it doesnโt have any large mines on the same scale as those found in the U.S. and Australia. Instead it has numerous smaller ones, and coupled with efficient smelting infrastructure, ends up producing more volume.
Finally, South Africa held the top supplier spot between 1900โ1970. Its production peaked at about 1,000 tonnes annually, the most by any country in a single year.
Learn More on the Voronoi App 
Need even more gold graphics? Good thing we have a few. Check out: Visualizing Gold Consumption vs. Domestic Supply to see which countries use the most gold.
Real Assets
Charted: The Global Mining Industry, by Market Cap
Australia tops the list, with its major mining companies totaling $353 billion in market cap.

Charted: The Global Mining Industry, by Market Cap
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free onย iOSย orย Androidย and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
This graphic breaks down the market value of the entire global mining industry, as of Jan. 16, 2025, using data from Companiesmarketcap.com.
Note that this data only covers publicly-traded companies.
Australia and Canada Lead
Australia tops the list, with its major mining companies totaling $353 billion in market capitalization. The country is home to two of the biggest miners in the world, BHP and Rio Tinto.
Country | Company | Market Cap (USD) |
---|---|---|
๐ฆ๐บ Australia | BHP Group | 125B |
๐จ๐ณ China | China Shenhua Energy | 103B |
๐ฆ๐บ Australia | Rio Tinto | 97B |
๐บ๐ธ U.S. | Southern Copper | 77B |
๐บ๐ธ U.S. | Freeport-McMoRan | 58B |
๐จ๐ญ Switzerland | Glencore | 55B |
๐ธ๐ฆ Saudi Arabia | Maaden | 49B |
๐บ๐ธ U.S. | Newmont | 48B |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | Agnico Eagle Mines | 43B |
๐ฎ๐ฉ Indonesia | Bayan Resources | 42B |
๐ฒ๐ฝ Mexico | Grupo Mรฉxico | 39B |
๐ฆ๐บ Australia | Fortescue | 36B |
๐ฌ๐ง UK | Anglo American | 37B |
๐ง๐ท Brazil | Vale | 37B |
๐จ๐ณ China | Zijin Mining | 57B |
๐ฎ๐ณ India | Coal India | 27B |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | Barrick Gold | 28B |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | Wheaton Precious Metals | 27B |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | Nutrien | 26B |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | Franco-Nevada | 24B |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | Teck Resources | 22B |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | Cameco | 22B |
๐ฌ๐ง UK | Antofagasta | 21B |
๐ฎ๐ณ India | Vedanta | 20B |
๐ท๐บ Russia | Nornickel | 18B |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | Ivanhoe Mines | 15B |
๐จ๐ณ China | Yanzhou Coal Mining | 15B |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | Kinross Gold | 13B |
๐ฆ๐บ Australia | Northern Star | 12B |
๐ท๐บ Russia | Severstal | 11B |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | First Quantum Minerals | 11B |
๐ฐ๐ฟ Kazakhstan | Kazatomprom | 10B |
๐ฆ๐บ Australia | South32 | 10B |
๐บ๐ธ U.S. | Royal Gold | 9B |
๐จ๐ณ China | Ganfeng Lithium | 9B |
๐ธ๐ช Sweden | Boliden | 8B |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | Alamos Gold | 8B |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | Pan American Silver | 8B |
๐จ๐ณ China | Tianqi Lithium | 7B |
๐ฆ๐บ Australia | Evolution Mining | 7B |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | Lundin Mining | 7B |
๐ฎ๐ณ Indonesia | NMDC | 7B |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | Lundin Gold | 6B |
๐ฎ๐ฉ India | United Tractors | 6B |
๐ฏ๐ต Japan | Sumitomo Metal Mining | 6B |
๐ฒ๐ฝ Mexico | Fresnillo | 6B |
๐ต๐ฑ Poland | KGHM | 6B |
๐ฟ๐ฆ South Africa | Harmony Gold | 6B |
๐ฌ๐ง UK | Endeavour Mining | 5B |
๐ฟ๐ฆ South Africa | Impala Platinum | 5B |
๐ Global Total | All Companies Combined | 1.4T |
Rich in minerals, Australia is the world’s largest producer of iron ore, essential for steel production, and lithium, a key component in batteries.
While Canadaโs economy has struggled to keep pace with its southern neighbor, its mining industry remains formidable.
The countryโs mining sector has a combined market capitalization of $344 billion, making it the second-largest globally.
Canada, the worldโs second-largest country by area after Russia, has vast natural resource wealth. It is particularly rich in gold, copper, nickel, and potash.
United States with miners totaling $228 billion and China with companies totaling $206 billion come in third and forth, respectively.
Learn More on the Voronoi App 
If you enjoyed this topic, check out thisย graphic showing the number of mines that must be developed to meet the expected demand for energy transition raw materials and chemicals by 2030.
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