Real Assets
The Inflation Factor: How Rising Food and Energy Prices Impact the Economy
How Rising Food and Energy Prices Impact the Economy
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the effects of energy supply disruptions are cascading across everything from food prices to electricity to consumer sentiment.
In response to soaring prices, many OECD countries are tapping into their strategic petroleum reserves. In fact, since March, the U.S. has sold a record one million barrels of oil per day from these reserves. This, among other factors, has led gasoline prices to fall more recently—yet deficits could follow into 2023, causing prices to increase.
With data from the World Bank, the above infographic charts energy shocks over the last half century and what this means for the global economy looking ahead.
Energy Price Shocks Since 1979
How does today’s energy price shock compare to previous spikes in real terms?
| U.S.$/bbl Equivalent | Crude Oil | Natural Gas | Coal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022* | $93 | $170 | $61 |
| 2008 | $127 | $100 | $46 |
| 1979 | $119 | $72 | $33 |
*2022 forecast
As the above table shows, the annual price of crude oil is forecasted to average $93 per barrel equivalent in 2022. By comparison, during the 2008 and 1979 price shocks, crude oil averaged $127 and $119 per barrel, respectively.
What distinguishes the 2022 energy spike is that prices have soared across all fuels. Where price shocks were more or less isolated in the past, many countries such as Germany and the Netherlands are looking to coal to make up for oil supply disruptions. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices have hit record highs.
Food prices have also spiked. Driven by higher input costs across fuel, chemicals, and fertilizer, agriculture commodity prices are forecasted to rise 18% in 2022. Fertilizer prices alone could increase 70% in part due to Russia’s dominance of the global fertilizer market—exporting more than any country worldwide.
What are 3 Ripple Effects of Rising Energy Prices?
Oil feeds into nearly everything, from food to smartphones. In fact, the price of oil influences as much as 64% of food price movements.
How could energy and food shocks affect the world economy in the near future, and why is a lot riding on the price of oil?
1. Rising Global Inflation
In 2022, inflation became a global phenomenon—impacting 100% of advanced countries and 87% of emerging markets and developing economies analyzed by the World Bank.
| Countries With Inflation Above Target | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Apr 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging Markets and Developing Economies | 20% | 20% | 55% | 87% |
| Advanced Economies | 9% | 8% | 67% | 100% |
Sample includes 31 emerging markets and developing economies and 12 advanced economies
By contrast, roughly two-thirds of advanced economies and just over half of emerging markets experienced inflation above target in 2021.
This has contributed to tighter monetary conditions. The table below shows how rising inflation in the U.S. has corresponded with interest rate hikes since the 1980s:
| Date | Core CPI at Beginning of Cycle | Magnitude of Rate Hikes Over Course of Tightening Cycle |
|---|---|---|
| 1979-81 | 9.3% | 9.0 p.p |
| 1983-84 | 4.6% | 3.0 p.p |
| 1986-89 | 3.6% | 4.0 p.p |
| 1994-95 | 2.8% | 3.0 p.p |
| 1999-00 | 2.0% | 1.75 p.p |
| 2004-06 | 1.9% | 4.25 p.p. |
| 2015-19 | 2.1% | 2.25 p.p |
| 2022-23 | 6.4% | 2.75 p.p |
2023 is an estimate based on market expectations of the level of the Fed Funds rate in mid-2023. U.S. Core CPI for 2023 based on latest data available.
In many cases, when the U.S. has rapidly tightened monetary policy in response to price pressures, emerging markets and developing economies have experienced financial crises amid higher borrowing costs.
2. Slower Global Growth
Energy price shocks could add greater headwinds to global growth prospects:
| Global Growth Scenarios | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 5.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% |
| Including Fed tightening | 2.6% | 2.4% | |
| Including Energy price spike | 2.2% | 1.6% | |
| Including China COVID-19 | 2.1% | 1.5% |
Together, price spikes, hawkish monetary policy, and COVID-19 lockdowns in China could negatively impact global growth.
3. Rising Food Insecurity and Social Unrest
Even before the energy price shock of 2022, global food insecurity was increasing due to COVID-19 and mounting inflationary pressures.
| Number of People in Acute Food Insecurity | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 97M | 119M |
| Middle East and North Africa | 30M | 32M |
| South Asia | 16M | 29M |
| Latin America and the Caribbean | 12M | 13M |
Sustained food shortages and high food prices could send millions into acute food insecurity.
In addition, high fuel and food prices are often correlated with mass protests, political violence, and riots. While Sri Lanka and Peru have already begun to see heightened riots, Turkey and Egypt are also at risk for social unrest as the cost of living accelerates and food insecurity worsens.
Global Challenges
Since World War II, oil price shocks have been a major constraint on economic growth. As the war in Ukraine continues, the outlook for today’s energy market is far from clear as a number of geopolitical factors could sway oil price movements and its corresponding effects.
Real Assets
How Much Gold is in Fort Knox?
The United States Bullion Depository holds more than half of the Treasury’s $428B in gold reserves.
How Much Gold Is in Fort Knox?
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to visit Fort Knox “to make sure the gold is there.”
Officially, the United States Bullion Depository (commonly known as Fort Knox) holds over half of the Treasury’s $428 billion gold reserves.
In this graphic, we put that amount into perspective by comparing Fort Knox’s reserves with central bank gold reserves worldwide. The data comes from the U.S. Mint and the World Gold Council. For illustrative purposes, we considered a pallet of 1,190 gold bars (400 troy ounces each) weighing approximately 14.8 tonnes.
What Is Fort Knox?
Located in Kentucky, Fort Knox is a U.S. Army installation that serves as the primary storage site for America’s gold reserves. The facility was established in the 1930s to protect gold from potential foreign attacks.
The first gold shipment arrived in 1937 via U.S. Mail from the Philadelphia Mint and the New York Assay Office. During World War II, Fort Knox safeguarded important U.S. documents, including the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and the Bill of Rights. It has also housed international treasures, such as the Magna Carta and the crown, sword, scepter, orb, and cape of St. Stephen, King of Hungary, before they were returned in 1978.
Currently, it holds 4,175 tonnes of gold, equivalent to nearly half of China’s gold reserves and four times the Swiss central bank’s reserves.
| Reserves | Gold (Tonnes) |
|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. Reserves | 8,133 |
| 🏛️ Fort Knox | 4,175 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 2,280 |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 846 |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 1,040 |
| 🇮🇳 India | 876 |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 104 |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | 220 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 130 |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 120 |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand | 235 |
Only small samples have been removed for purity testing during audits; no major transfers have occurred for years.
Gold Bar Specifications
- Size: 7 inches × 3 5/8 inches × 1 3/4 inches
- Weight: 400 ounces (27.5 pounds)
Extreme Security
Only a select few know the full security procedures, and no single person knows how to fully open the vault.
In 1974, a group of journalists and a Congressional delegation were allowed inside—marking the first official visit since Fort Knox’s creation. Previously, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was the only person other than authorized personnel to access the vaults.
In 2017, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin, and several Congressional representatives became the second group to visit the vault.
Learn More on the Voronoi App 
If gold was shared equally, how much would you get? Check out this graphic to find out.
Real Assets
Charted: Top Suppliers of Aluminum and Steel to the U.S.
President Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports.
Charted: Top U.S. Suppliers of Aluminum and Steel
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, marking one of the most discussed measures of his first month back in the White House.
But which countries are most affected by these tariffs?
This map illustrates the top suppliers of aluminum and steel to the United States in 2024. The data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau. Aluminum includes unwrought aluminum, plates, sheets, and strips; bars, rods, and profiles; foil; wire; pipes and tubes; castings and forgings; and tube or pipe fittings.
Canada: The Largest Partner
Canada is by far the top supplier of both steel and aluminum to the United States. The neighboring country exported $9.4 billion worth of aluminum to the U.S. in 2024, significantly ahead of the second-largest exporter, the European Union, which exported $1.5 billion.
Canada also exported $7.1 billion worth of steel last year, compared to $7 billion from the European Union.
| Country | Steel Imports (USD) | Aluminum Imports (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Canada | $7.1B | $9.4B |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | $3.5B | $397M |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | $3.0B | - |
| 🇨🇳 China | $799M | $809M |
| 🇹🇼 Taiwan | $1.3B | - |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | $2.9B | $781M |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | $1.9B | $318M |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | $1.7B | - |
| 🇮🇳 India | $489M | $445M |
| 🇪🇺 European Union | $7B | $1.5B |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | - | $917M |
| 🇧🇭 Bahrain | - | $535M |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | - | $468M |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand | - | $271M |
| 🇬🇧 UK | $440M | - |
Mexico, South Korea, and Brazil are also among the top suppliers of steel to the United States. Meanwhile, the country imports aluminum from other key partners, including China, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Bahrain, and Argentina.
A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted that the U.S. produces less than 2% of the world’s primary aluminum.
Learn More on the Voronoi App
If you enjoyed this graphic, be sure to check out this chart illustrating the GDP impact of Trump’s tariffs on China.
-
Electrification2 years agoThe Six Major Types of Lithium-ion Batteries: A Visual Comparison
-
Real Assets2 years agoWhich Countries Have the Lowest Inflation?
-
Electrification3 years agoThe World’s Top 10 Lithium Mining Companies
-
Real Assets1 year ago200 Years of Global Gold Production, by Country
-
Electrification2 years agoLife Cycle Emissions: EVs vs. Combustion Engine Vehicles
-
Misc2 years agoMapped: U.S. Mineral Production Value by State in 2022
-
Energy Shift2 years agoMapped: Biggest Sources of Electricity by State and Province
-
Electrification2 years agoVisualizing Global EV Production in 2022, by Brand