Electrification
Visualizing the Freefall in Electric Vehicle Battery Prices
Electric Vehicle Prices Fall as EV Battery Tech Improves
Electric vehicles (EVs) only accounted for around 3.2% of global car sales in 2020—a figure that’s set to grow in the coming decade, largely due to falling EV battery costs.
With rising production and technological improvements, batteries are becoming cheaper to produce, making EVs increasingly competitive with gas-powered cars.
Wright’s Law is Right So Far
According to Wright’s Law, also known as the learning curve effect, lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery cell costs fall by 28% for every cumulative doubling of units produced.
Wright’s Law has accurately predicted the decline in battery costs and so far, reported battery prices have been in line with modeled forecasts. The battery pack is the most expensive part of an electric vehicle. Consequently, the sticker prices of EVs fall with declining battery costs.
By 2023, the cost of Li-ion batteries is expected to fall to around $100/kWh—the price point at which EVs are as cheap to make as gas-powered cars.
Year | Price of Toyota Camry ⛽️ | Price of a 350-mile Range EV 🔋 |
---|---|---|
2019 | $24,000 | $50,000 |
2021 | $25,000 | $39,000 |
2023 | $26,000 | $26,000 |
2025 | $26,000 | $18,000 |
Figures represent the Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price (MSRP)
EVs are already cheaper to own and operate than comparable gas-powered cars due to savings from gas, maintenance, and resale value. Therefore, a reduction in retail electric vehicle prices may enable them to compete more directly with gas-powered cars.
According to ARK Invest, the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) of a 350-mile range EV will be on par with that of a like-for-like Toyota Camry in 2023. Furthermore, the price of a 350-mile range EV is projected to drop by 53% between 2021-2025—making it $8,000 cheaper than the Camry.
The Electric Catch Up
Electric vehicles are a key piece of the puzzle in the transition to clean energy. Hence, growing consumer awareness around climate change is a catalyst for the EV space.
However, as EV production increases, so does the need for various critical minerals, charging infrastructure, and more. Price is just one of the hurdles that EV manufacturers need to overcome on the road to mainstream EV adoption.
Electrification
Will Direct Lithium Extraction Disrupt the $90B Lithium Market?
Visual Capitalist and EnergyX explore how direct lithium extraction could disrupt the $90B lithium industry.
Will Direct Lithium Extraction Disrupt the $90B Lithium Market?
Current lithium extraction and refinement methods are outdated, often harmful to the environment, and ultimately inefficient. So much so that by 2030, lithium demand will outstrip supply by a projected 1.42 million metric tons. But there is a solution: Direct lithium extraction (DLE).
For this graphic, we partnered with EnergyX to try to understand how DLE could help meet global lithium demands and change an industry that is critical to the clean energy transition.
The Lithium Problem
Lithium is crucial to many renewable energy technologies because it is this element that allows EV batteries to react. In fact, it’s so important that projections show the lithium industry growing from $22.2B in 2023 to nearly $90B by 2030.
But even with this incredible growth, as you can see from the table, refined lithium production will need to increase 86.5% over and above current projections.
2022 (million metric tons) | 2030P (million metric tons) | |
---|---|---|
Lithium Carbonate Demand | 0.46 | 1.21 |
Lithium Hydroxide Demand | 0.18 | 1.54 |
Lithium Metal Demand | 0 | 0.22 |
Lithium Mineral Demand | 0.07 | 0.09 |
Total Demand | 0.71 | 3.06 |
Total Supply | 0.75 | 1.64 |
The Solution: Direct Lithium Extraction
DLE is a process that uses a combination of solvent extraction, membranes, or adsorbents to extract and then refine lithium directly from its source. LiTASTM, the proprietary DLE technology developed by EnergyX, can recover an incredible 300% more lithium per ton than existing processes, making it the perfect tool to help meet lithium demands.
Additionally, LiTASTM can refine lithium at the lowest cost per unit volume directly from brine, an essential step in meeting tomorrow’s lithium demand and manufacturing next-generation batteries, while significantly reducing the footprint left by lithium mining.
Hard Rock Mining | Underground Reservoirs | Direct Lithium Extraction | |
---|---|---|---|
Direct CO2 Emissions | 15,000 kg | 5,000 kg | 3.5 kg |
Water Use | 170 m3 | 469 m3 | 34-94 m3 |
Lithium Recovery Rate | 58% | 30-40% | 90% |
Land Use | 464 m2 | 3124 m2 | 0.14 m2 |
Process Time | Variable | 18 months | 1-2 days |
Providing the World with Lithium
DLE promises to disrupt the outdated lithium industry by improving lithium recovery rates and slashing emissions, helping the world meet the energy demands of tomorrow’s electric vehicles.
EnergyX is on a mission to become a worldwide leader in the sustainable energy transition using groundbreaking direct lithium extraction technology. Don’t miss your chance to join companies like GM and invest in EnergyX to transform the future of renewable energy.
Electrification
Chart: The $400 Billion Lithium Battery Value Chain
In this graphic, we break down where the $400 billion lithium battery industry will generate revenue in 2030.
Breaking Down the $400 Billion Battery Value Chain
As the world transitions away from fossil fuels toward a greener future, the lithium battery industry could grow fivefold by 2030. This shift could create over $400 billion in annual revenue opportunities globally.
For this graphic, we partnered with EnergyX to determine how the battery industry could grow by 2030.
Exploring the Battery Value Chain
The lithium battery value chain has many links within it that each generate their own revenue opportunities, these include:
- Critical Element Production: Involves the mining and refining of materials used in a battery’s construction.
- Active materials: Creating and developing materials that react electrochemically to allow batteries to charge and discharge.
- Battery cells: Involves the production of rechargeable elements of a battery.
- Battery packs: Producing packs containing a series of connected battery cells. Generally, these come in two types: NMC/NMCA, the standard in North America and Europe, and LFP, the standard in China.
- Recycling: Reusing battery components within new batteries.
But these links aren’t equal, each one is projected to generate different levels of revenue by 2030:
China 🇨🇳 | Europe 🇪🇺 | United States 🇺🇸 | Rest of World 🌍 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $184B | $118B | $62B | $39B |
Critical Element Production | $37B | $25B | $15B | $8B |
Active Materials | $54B | $31B | $14B | $11B |
Battery Packs | $34B | $22B | $11B | $7B |
Battery Cells | $53B | $37B | $20B | $11B |
Recycling | $6B | $3B | $2B | $2B |
On the surface, battery cell production may contribute the most revenue to the battery value chain. However, lithium production can generate margins as high as 65%, meaning lithium production has potential to yield large margins.
How Much Lithium Is Available?
Just a few countries hold 81% of the world’s viable lithium. So, supply bottlenecks could slow the growth of the lithium battery industry:
Nation | Viable Lithium Reserves (2023) |
---|---|
Chile 🇨🇱 | 9.3M t |
Australia 🇦🇺 | 6.2M t |
Argentina 🇦🇷 | 2.7M t |
China 🇨🇳 | 2M t |
U.S. 🇺🇸 | 1M t |
Rest of World 🌍 | 4.9M t |
Supplying the World With Batteries
Supplying the world with lithium is critical to the battery value chain and a successful transition from fossil fuels. Players like the U.S. and the EU, with increasingly large and growing lithium needs, will need to maximize local opportunities and work together to meet demand.
EnergyX is on a mission to become a world leader in the global transition to sustainable energy, using cutting-edge direct lithium extraction to help supply the world with lithium.
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