Real Assets
Charted: Commodities vs Equity Valuations (1970–2023)
Charted: Commodities vs Equity Valuations (1970–2023)
In recent years, commodity prices have reached a 50-year low relative to overall equity markets (S&P 500). Historically, lows in the ratio of commodities to equities have corresponded with the beginning of new commodity supercycles.
The infographic above uses data from Incrementum AG and Crescat Capital LLC to show the relationship between commodities and U.S. equities over the last five decades.
What is a Commodity Supercycle?
A commodity supercycle occurs when prices of commodities rise above their long-term averages for long periods of time, even decades. Once the supply has adequately grown to meet demand, the cycle enters a downswing.
The last commodity supercycle started in 1996 and peaked in 2011, driven by raw material demand from rapid industrialization taking place in Brazil, India, Russia, and China.
Supercycles in Commodity Prices | 1899-1932 | 1933-1961 | 1962-1995 | 1996-2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Peak year | 1904 | 1947 | 1978 | 2011 |
Peak of supercycle from long-term trend (%) | 10.2 | 14.1 | 19.5 | 33.5 |
Trough of supercycle from long-term trend (%) | -12.9 | -10 | -38.1 | 23.7 |
Length of cycle from trough-to-trough (years) | 33 | 29 | 34 | 20 |
Upswing (years) | 5 | 15 | 17 | 16 |
Downswing (years) | 28 | 14 | 17 | 4 |
Source: Bank of Canada, IHS
While no two supercycles look the same, they all have three indicators in common: a surge in supply, a surge in demand, and a surge in price.
In general, commodity prices and equity valuations tend to have a low to negative correlation, making it rare to see the two moving in tandem in the same direction for any long period of time.
Commodity Prices and Equity Valuations
In line with the above notion, commodity prices and equity valuations have often been at odds with one another in past market cycles.
During the 1970s and early 1980s, for example, rising oil prices led to a significant decline in stock prices as higher energy costs hurt corporate profits. In contrast, during the first half of the 2000s, low oil prices were accompanied by a strong equity bull market that ended with the 2008 stock market crash.
The relationship, however, is not always straightforward and can be affected by various other factors, such as global economic growth, supply and demand, inflation, and other market events.
With the most recent commodity supercycle peaking in 2011, could the next big one be right around the corner?
Real Assets
Visualized: China’s Steel Demand Through Time
China’s steel demand remains robust, but the breakdown on a sectoral level has shifted since 2010. Which sectors are driving steel consumption?
Visualized: China’s Steel Demand Through Time
As the world’s manufacturing powerhouse, China has the highest global demand for crude steel, with the market experiencing remarkable growth since 2010.
In 2023, China’s crude steel demand reached 911 million metric tons. This is up an estimated 50% from 609 million metric tons 13 years earlier. When adding in exports and changes to inventory, China surpassed 1 billion metric tons of steel production for the fifth year in a row.
However, the growth in demand for the metal has not been even across industries. In this graphic, we’ve partnered with BHP to visualize how demand for steel on a sectoral level has shifted between 2010 and 2023.
The Sectors Driving Steel Demand
We observed demand for crude steel across the following sectors:
- Machinery: machinery used in power, construction, metals and mining, agriculture, tools and parts, etc.
- Infrastructure: roads, railways, subways, pipelines, etc.
- Construction: urban and rural housing, office buildings, industrial buildings, WRAC buildings (wholesale, retail, accommodation, catering), etc.
- Transport: light-duty vehicles, trucks and buses, auto parts, shipbuilding, etc.
- Consumer Durable Goods: refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, microwaves, etc.
- Metal Goods: containers and hardware, etc.
- Other: smaller categories, statistical change, etc.
In 2010, the largest share of Chinese demand came from the construction sector. Construction accounted for an estimated 42% of the country’s total steel needs. Machinery (20%) and infrastructure (13%) were the industries with the second- and third-highest demand, respectively.
Over the past 13 years, however, demand has shifted towards the machinery and infrastructure industries.
Sector | 2010 (%) | 2023 (%) |
---|---|---|
Machinery | 20 | 30 |
Infrastructure | 13 | 17 |
Construction | 42 | 24 |
Transport | 12 | 9 |
Durable Goods | 7 | 8 |
Other | 6 | 12 |
The demand for steel from the construction industry is estimated to have dropped from 42% of total demand to 24%, as construction firms purchased 37 million metric tons less steel in 2023 compared to 2010. This slump can, in part, be attributed to the Chinese real estate crisis and developer bankruptcies. Both of these factors led to a slowdown in residential building starts.
The machinery sector, on the other hand, has witnessed incredible growth. It rose from an estimated 20% share of overall Chinese steel demand in 2010 to 30% by 2023, boosted by an influx of equipment renewals. Infrastructure saw approximate growth of 13% to 17% over this timeframe.
Steel Demand for Transportation and Durable Goods
The share of steel used by the transport sector is estimated to have falled from 12% in 2010 to 9% in 2023. However, there was an uptick in the amount of steel used by the industry. It rose from around 73 million metric tons in 2010 to 82 million metric tons 13 years later. And, with more than half of all new electric vehicles (EVs) sold worldwide made in China, the sector could receive support if EVs continue to gain in popularity.
In fact, the green economy needs the steel industry—it remains vital for the production of emerging technologies. As such, it is important that nations take steps towards “cleaning” their steel industries. China is doing so with its focus on carbon capture, utilization, and storage technologies, employing green hydrogen metallurgy, and introducing electric furnaces.
Steel demand for durable goods rose slightly from 2010 to 2023. However, the relatively steady share masks the near-doubling of absolute steel purchased by this sector—up from 43 million metric tons to an estimated 73 million metric tons.
The Path Forward for Steel
The Chinese steel industry remains robust—growing by an estimated 50% from 2010 to 2023—despite significant shifts beneath the surface.
As the energy transition progresses, further changes in industry demand for steel are likely, especially with the increasing prominence of clean technologies, such as EVs. Conversely, demand from the construction industry remains closely tied to the outlook of the country’s housing sector.
BHP is one of the world’s leading iron ore producers. Read more insights in its economic and commodity outlook report.
Real Assets
Ranked: The Countries That Added the Most Gold Reserves (2013-2023)
Russia and China lead in gold purchases.
Countries Buying the Most Gold (2013-2023)
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, increased sanctions, and discussions around de-dollarization, interest in gold purchases is rising. But which countries are leading the charge in increasing their gold reserves?
This graphic ranks the top 10 countries by the change in gold reserves from 2013 to 2023. The figures, measured in tonnes, were compiled by the World Gold Council.
Russia and China Lead in Gold Purchases
Central banks, particularly those of Russia and China, have bought gold at the fastest pace as countries seek to diversify their reserves away from the dollar. Central banks also hold gold reserves due to their safety, liquidity, and return characteristics.
Russia’s reserves jumped from 1,035 tonnes in 2013 to 2,333 in 2023. China’s reserves rose from 1,054 tonnes to 2,235 in 2023.
In third place in our ranking of central bank gold additions, Türkiye increased its reserves from 116 tonnes in 2013 to 540 tonnes in 2023.
Rank | Country | Q4 '13 | Q4 '23 | 10 Year Gold Reserve Change (tonnes) |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 🇷🇺 Russia | 1,035 | 2,333 | +1,298 |
2 | 🇨🇳 China | 1,054 | 2,235 | +1,181 |
3 | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | 116 | 540 | +424 |
4 | 🇵🇱 Poland | 103 | 359 | +256 |
5 | 🇮🇳 India | 558 | 804 | +246 |
6 | 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 217 | 371 | +154 |
7 | 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan | 144 | 294 | +151 |
8 | 🇸🇬 Singapore | 127 | 230 | +103 |
9 | 🇮🇶 Iraq | 42 | 143 | +100 |
10 | 🇹🇭 Thailand | 152 | 244 | +92 |
The United States remains as the country with the highest overall gold reserves, holding 8,133 tonnes. Half of the country’s reserves are stored at the United States Bullion Depository, commonly known as Fort Knox, a United States Army installation in Kentucky.
Germany ranks second with 3,351 tonnes, followed by Italy with 2,452 tonnes.
Learn More on the Voronoi App
In you enjoyed this graphic, make sure to check this bar chart about the top ten countries in total gold reserves in 2024.
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