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Battery Megafactory Forecast: 400% Increase in Capacity to 1 TWh by 2028

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Battery Megafactory Forecast: 400% Increase in Capacity to 1 TWh by 2028

Battery Megafactory Forecast

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

When ground broke on the massive Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada in 2014, the world marveled at the project’s audacity, size, and scope.

At the time, it was touted that the cutting-edge facility would be the largest building in the world by footprint, and that the Gigafactory would single-handedly be capable of doubling the world’s lithium-ion battery production capacity.

What many did not realize, however, is that although as ambitious and as forward-looking as the project sounded, the Gigafactory was just the start of a trend towards scale in the battery making space. While Tesla’s facility was the most publicized, it would ultimately be one of many massive factories in the global pipeline.

Mastering Scale

Today’s data comes to us from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and it forecasts that we will see a 399% increase in lithium-ion battery production capacity over the next decade – enough to pass the impressive 1 TWh milestone.

Here is a more detailed projection of how things will shape up in the coming decade:

RegionCapacity (GWh, 2018)Capacity (GWh, 2023)Capacity (GWh, 2028)
China134.5405631
Europe19.693.5207
North America20.981148
Other005
Asia (excl China)45.578.5111.5
Grand Total220.56581,102.5

In just a decade, lithium-ion battery megafactories around the world will have a combined production capacity equivalent to 22 Tesla Gigafactories!

The majority of this capacity will be located in China, which is projected to have 57% of the global total.

The Top Plants Globally

According to Benchmark, the top 10 megafactories will be combining for 299 GWh of capacity in 2023, which will be equal to almost half of the global production total.

Here are the top 10 plants, sorted by projected capacity:

RankMegafactoryOwnerCountryForecasted capacity by 2023 (GWh)
#1CATLContemporary Amperex Technology Co LtdChina50
#2Tesla Gigafactory 1Tesla Inc / Panasonic Corp (25%)US50
#3Nanjing LG Chem New Energy Battery Co., Ltd.LG ChemChina35
#4Nanjing LG Chem New Energy Battery Co., Ltd. Plant 2LG ChemChina28
#5Samsung SDI XianSamsung SDIChina25
#6Funeng TechnologyFuneng Technology (Ganzhou)China25
#7BYD , QinghaiBYD Co LtdChina24
#8LG Chem Wroclaw Energy Sp. z o.o.LG ChemPoland22
#9Samsung SDI KoreaSamsung SDIKorea20
#10LishenTianJin Lishen Battery Joint-Stock CO.,LTDChina20

Of the top 10 megafactory plants in 2023, the majority will be located in China – meanwhile, the U.S. (Tesla Gigafactory), South Korea (Samsung), and Poland (LG Chem) will be home to the rest.

Reaching economies of scale in lithium-ion battery production will be a significant step in decreasing the overall cost of electric vehicles, which are expected to surpass traditional vehicles in market share by 2038.

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Energy Shift

Ranked: The Most Carbon-Intensive Sectors in the World

Comparing average Scope 1 emission intensities by sector, according to an analysis done by S&P Global Inc.

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Ranked: The Most Carbon-Intensive Sectors in the World

Ever wonder which sectors contribute the most to CO2 emissions around the world?

In this graphic, we explore the answers to that question by comparing average Scope 1 emission intensities by sector, according to an analysis done by S&P Global Inc.

Defining Scope 1 Emissions

Before diving into the data, it may be useful to understand what Scope 1 emissions entail.

Scope 1 emissions are direct greenhouse gas emissions from sources that are owned or controlled by a company, such as their facilities and vehicles.

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Scope 1 emissions can do a good job of highlighting a company’s environmental footprint because they represent the direct emissions related to manufacturing or creating a company’s products, whether they are tangible goods, digital software, or services.

Scope 2 and 3 emissions, on the other hand, encompass the indirect emissions associated with a company’s activities, including those from a company’s purchased electricity, leased assets, or investments.

Ranking the Carbon Giants

According to S&P Global’s analysis of 2019-2020 average emissions intensity by sector, utilities is the most carbon-intensive sector in the world, emitting a staggering 2,634 tonnes of CO2 per $1 million of revenue.

Materials and energy sectors follow behind, with 918 tonnes and 571 tonnes of CO2 emitted, respectively.

SectorSector ExplanationScope 1 CO2 emissions per $1M of revenue, 2019-2020
UtilitiesElectric, gas, and water utilities and independent producers2,634 tonnes
MaterialsChemicals, construction materials, packaging, metals, and mining918 tonnes
EnergyOil and gas exploration/production and energy equipment571 tonnes
IndustrialsCapital goods, commercial services, and transportation194 tonnes
Consumer staplesFood, household goods, and personal products90 tonnes
Consumer discretionaryAutomobiles, consumer durables, apparel, and retailing33 tonnes
Real estateReal estate and real estate management31 tonnes
Information technologySoftware, technology hardware, and semiconductors24 tonnes
FinancialsBanks, insurance, and diversified financials19 tonnes
Communication servicesTelecommunication, media, and entertainment9 tonnes
Health careHealth care equipment, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and life sciences7 tonnes

S&P Global also reveals some interesting insights when it comes to various industries within the materials sector, including:

  • Cement manufacturing exhibits an extremely high level of Scope 1 emissions, emitting more than double the emissions from the utilities sector (5,415 tonnes of CO2 per $1M of revenue)
  • Aluminum and steel production are also quite emission-intensive, emitting 1,421 and 1,390 tonnes respectively in 2019-2020
  • Relatively lower-emission materials such as gold, glass, metals and paper products bring down the average emissions of the materials sector

Given these trends, a closer look at emission-intensive industries and sectors is necessary for our urgent need to decarbonize the global economy.

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Energy Shift

Ranked: The World’s Biggest Oil Producers

Just three countries—the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia—make up the lion’s share of global oil supply. Here are the world’s biggest oil producers.

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Oil by Country

Ranked: The World’s Biggest Oil Producers

This visualization originally appeared on Visual Capitalist

In 2022 oil prices peaked at more than $100 per barrel, hitting an eight-year high, after a full year of turmoil in the energy markets in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Oil companies doubled their profits and the economies of the biggest oil producers in the world got a major boost.

But which countries are responsible for most of the world’s oil supply? Using data from the Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute, we’ve visualized and ranked the world’s biggest oil producers.

Ranked: Oil Production By Country, in 2022

The U.S. has been the world’s biggest oil producer since 2018 and continued its dominance in 2022 by producing close to 18 million barrels per day (B/D). This accounted for nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Almost three-fourths of the country’s oil production is centered around five states: Texas, New Mexico, North Dakota, Alaska, and Colorado.

We rank the other major oil producers in the world below.

RankCountry2022 Production
(Thousand B/D)
YoY ChangeShare of
World Supply
1🇺🇸 U.S.17,770+6.5%18.9%
2🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia12,136+10.8%12.9%
3🇷🇺 Russia11,202+1.8%11.9%
4🇨🇦 Canada5,576+3.0%5.9%
5🇮🇶 Iraq4,520+10.2%4.8%
6🇨🇳 China4,111+2.9%4.4%
7🇦🇪 UAE4,020+10.4%4.3%
8🇮🇷 Iran3,822+4.6%4.1%
9🇧🇷 Brazil3,107+3.9%3.3%
10🇰🇼 Kuwait3,028+12.0%3.2%
11🇲🇽 Mexico1,944+0.9%2.1%
12🇳🇴 Norway1,901-6.3%2.0%
13🇰🇿 Kazakhstan1,769-2.0%1.9%
14🇶🇦 Qatar1,768+1.8%1.9%
15🇩🇿 Algeria1,474+8.9%1.6%
16🇳🇬 Nigeria1,450-11.2%1.5%
17🇦🇴 Angola1,190+1.1%1.3%
18🇱🇾 Libya1,088-14.3%1.2%
19🇴🇲 Oman1,064+9.6%1.1%
20🇬🇧 UK778-11.0%0.8%
21🇨🇴 Colombia754+2.4%0.8%
22🇮🇳 India737-3.8%0.8%
23🇻🇪 Venezuela731+8.1%0.8%
24🇦🇷 Argentina706+12.4%0.8%
25🇦🇿 Azerbaijan685-5.6%0.7%
26🇮🇩 Indonesia644-6.9%0.7%
27🇪🇬 Egypt613+0.8%0.7%
28🇲🇾 Malaysia567-1.7%0.6%
29🇪🇨 Ecuador481+1.7%0.5%
30🇦🇺 Australia420-5.2%0.4%
31🇹🇭 Thailand331-17.5%0.4%
32🇨🇩 Congo269-1.7%0.3%
33🇹🇲 Turkmenistan244+1.0%0.3%
34🇻🇳 Vietnam194-1.2%0.2%
35🇬🇦 Gabon191+5.4%0.2%
36🇸🇸 South Sudan141-7.6%0.2%
37🇵🇪 Peru128+0.5%0.1%
38🇹🇩 Chad124+6.2%0.1%
39🇬🇶 Equatorial
Guinea
119-9.2%0.1%
40🇸🇾 Syria93-2.7%0.1%
41🇮🇹 Italy92-7.9%0.1%
42🇧🇳 Brunei92-13.8%0.1%
43🇾🇪 Yemen81-2.4%0.1%
44🇹🇹 Trinidad
& Tobago
74-3.6%0.1%
45🇷🇴 Romania65-6.2%0.1%
46🇩🇰 Denmark65-1.6%0.1%
47🇺🇿 Uzbekistan63-0.9%0.1%
48🇸🇩 Sudan62-3.3%0.1%
49🇹🇳 Tunisia40-12.9%0.0%
50Other CIS43+4.4%0.0%
51Other Middle East210+1.2%0.2%
52Other Africa283-3.4%0.3%
53Other Europe230-20.5%0.2%
54Other Asia Pacific177-10.6%0.2%
55Other S. &
Cent. America
381+68.5%0.4%
Total World93,848+4.2%100.0%

Behind America’s considerable lead in oil production, Saudi Arabia (ranked 2nd) produced 12 million B/D, accounting for about 13% of global supply.

Russia came in third with 11 million B/D in 2022. Together, these top three oil producing behemoths, along with Canada (4th) and Iraq (5th), make up more than half of the entire world’s oil supply.

Meanwhile, the top 10 oil producers, including those ranked 6th to 10th—China, UAE, Iran, Brazil, and Kuwait—are responsible for more than 70% of the world’s oil production.

Notably, all top 10 oil giants increased their production between 2021–2022, and as a result, global output rose 4.2% year-on-year.

Major Oil Producing Regions in 2022

The Middle East accounts for one-third of global oil production and North America makes up almost another one-third of production. The Commonwealth of Independent States—an organization of post-Soviet Union countries—is another major regional producer of oil, with a 15% share of world production.

Region2022 Production
(Thousand B/D)
YoY ChangeShare of
World Supply
Middle East30,743+9.2%32.8%
North America25,290+5.3%27.0%
CIS14,006+0.9%14.9%
Africa7,043-3.5%7.5%
Asia Pacific7,273-1.4%7.8%
South & Central
America
6,3617.2%6.8%
Europe3,131-8.6%3.3%

What’s starkly apparent in the data however is Europe’s declining share of oil production, now at 3% of the world’s supply. In the last 20 years the EU’s oil output has dropped by more than 50% due to a variety of factors, including stricter environmental regulations and a shift to natural gas.

Another lens to look at regional production is through OPEC members, which control about 35% of the world’s oil output and about 70% of the world’s oil reserves.

A pictogram of the regional per day production by the biggest oil producers in 2022.

When taking into account the group of 10 oil exporting countries OPEC has relationships with, known as OPEC+, the share of oil production increases to more than half of the world’s supply.

Oil’s Big Balancing Act

Since it’s the very lifeblood of the modern economy, the countries that control significant amounts of oil production also reap immense political and economic benefits. Entire regions have been catapulted into prosperity and wars have been fought over the control of the resource.

At the same time, the ongoing effort to pivot to renewable energy is pushing many major oil exporters to diversify their economies. A notable example is Saudi Arabia, whose sovereign wealth fund has invested in companies like Uber and WeWork.

However, the world still needs oil, as it supplies nearly one-third of global energy demand.

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