Energy Shift
Battery Megafactory Forecast: 400% Increase in Capacity to 1 TWh by 2028
Battery Megafactory Forecast
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When ground broke on the massive Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada in 2014, the world marveled at the project’s audacity, size, and scope.
At the time, it was touted that the cutting-edge facility would be the largest building in the world by footprint, and that the Gigafactory would single-handedly be capable of doubling the world’s lithium-ion battery production capacity.
What many did not realize, however, is that although as ambitious and as forward-looking as the project sounded, the Gigafactory was just the start of a trend towards scale in the battery making space. While Tesla’s facility was the most publicized, it would ultimately be one of many massive factories in the global pipeline.
Mastering Scale
Today’s data comes to us from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and it forecasts that we will see a 399% increase in lithium-ion battery production capacity over the next decade – enough to pass the impressive 1 TWh milestone.
Here is a more detailed projection of how things will shape up in the coming decade:
Region | Capacity (GWh, 2018) | Capacity (GWh, 2023) | Capacity (GWh, 2028) |
---|---|---|---|
China | 134.5 | 405 | 631 |
Europe | 19.6 | 93.5 | 207 |
North America | 20.9 | 81 | 148 |
Other | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Asia (excl China) | 45.5 | 78.5 | 111.5 |
Grand Total | 220.5 | 658 | 1,102.5 |
In just a decade, lithium-ion battery megafactories around the world will have a combined production capacity equivalent to 22 Tesla Gigafactories!
The majority of this capacity will be located in China, which is projected to have 57% of the global total.
The Top Plants Globally
According to Benchmark, the top 10 megafactories will be combining for 299 GWh of capacity in 2023, which will be equal to almost half of the global production total.
Here are the top 10 plants, sorted by projected capacity:
Rank | Megafactory | Owner | Country | Forecasted capacity by 2023 (GWh) |
---|---|---|---|---|
#1 | CATL | Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd | China | 50 |
#2 | Tesla Gigafactory 1 | Tesla Inc / Panasonic Corp (25%) | US | 50 |
#3 | Nanjing LG Chem New Energy Battery Co., Ltd. | LG Chem | China | 35 |
#4 | Nanjing LG Chem New Energy Battery Co., Ltd. Plant 2 | LG Chem | China | 28 |
#5 | Samsung SDI Xian | Samsung SDI | China | 25 |
#6 | Funeng Technology | Funeng Technology (Ganzhou) | China | 25 |
#7 | BYD , Qinghai | BYD Co Ltd | China | 24 |
#8 | LG Chem Wroclaw Energy Sp. z o.o. | LG Chem | Poland | 22 |
#9 | Samsung SDI Korea | Samsung SDI | Korea | 20 |
#10 | Lishen | TianJin Lishen Battery Joint-Stock CO.,LTD | China | 20 |
Of the top 10 megafactory plants in 2023, the majority will be located in China – meanwhile, the U.S. (Tesla Gigafactory), South Korea (Samsung), and Poland (LG Chem) will be home to the rest.
Reaching economies of scale in lithium-ion battery production will be a significant step in decreasing the overall cost of electric vehicles, which are expected to surpass traditional vehicles in market share by 2038.
Energy Shift
How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?
Copper and lithium will require the highest number of new mines.

How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?
Nearly 300 Mines
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, meeting global battery demand by 2030 would require 293 new mines or plants.
Mineral | 2024 Supply (t) | 2030 Demand (t) | Supply Needed (t) | No. of Mines/Plants | Type |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lithium | 1,181,000 | 2,728,000 | 1,547,000 | 52 | Mine |
Cobalt | 272,000 | 401,000 | 129,000 | 26 | Mine |
Nickel | 3,566,000 | 4,949,000 | 1,383,000 | 28 | Mine |
Natural Graphite | 1,225,000 | 2,933,000 | 1,708,000 | 31 | Mine |
Synthetic Graphite | 1,820,000 | 2,176,000 | 356,000 | 12 | Plant |
Manganese | 90,000 | 409,000 | 319,000 | 21 | Plant |
Purified Phosphoric Acid | 6,493,000 | 9,001,000 | 2,508,000 | 33 | Plant |
Copper | 22,912,000 | 26,576,000 | 3,664,000 | 61 | Mine |
Rare Earths | 83,711 | 116,663 | 32,952 | 29 | Mine |
Copper, used in wires and other applications, and lithium, essential for batteries, will require the most significant number of new mines.
Manganese production would need to increase more than fourfold to meet anticipated demand.
Not an Easy Task
Building new mines is one of the biggest challenges in reaching the expected demand.
After discovery and exploration, mineral projects must go through a lengthy process of research, permitting, and funding before becoming operational.
In the U.S., for instance, developing a new mine can take 29 years.
In contrast, Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Laos have some of the shortest development times in the world, at roughly 10 to 15 years.
Energy Shift
Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources
Europe depends entirely on China for heavy rare earth elements, critical for technologies such as hybrid cars and fiber optics.

Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources
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Despite efforts by European countries to reduce their reliance on China for critical materials, the region remains heavily dependent on Chinese resources.
This graphic shows the percentage of EU raw material supply sourced from China for 12 raw materials used in various industries. Bloomberg published this data in May 2024 based on European Commission research.
China’s Dominance in Clean Energy Minerals
Europe is 100% dependent on China for heavy rare earth elements used in technologies such as hybrid cars, fiber optics, and nuclear power.
Additionally, 97% of the magnesium consumed in Europe, for uses ranging from aerospace alloys to automotive parts, comes from the Asian country.
Raw Material | Percentage Supplied by China | Usage |
---|---|---|
Heavy rare earth elements | 100% | nuclear reactors, TV screens, fiber optics |
Magnesium | 97% | Aerospace alloys, automotive parts |
Light rare earth elements | 85% | Catalysts, aircraft engines, magnets |
Lithium | 79% | Batteries, pharmaceuticals, ceramics |
Gallium | 71% | Semiconductors, LEDs, solar panels |
Scandium | 67% | Aerospace components, power generation, sports equipment |
Bismuth | 65% | Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, low-melting alloys |
Vanadium | 62% | Steel alloys, aerospace, tools |
Baryte | 45% | Oil and gas drilling, paints, plastics |
Germanium | 45% | Fiber optics, infrared optics, electronics |
Natural graphite | 40% | Batteries, lubricants, refractory materials |
Tungsten | 32% | Cutting tools, electronics, heavy metal alloys |
Almost 80% of the lithium in electric vehicles and electronics batteries comes from China.
Assessing the Risks
The EU faces a pressing concern over access to essential materials, given the apprehension that China could “weaponize” its dominance of the sector.
One proposed solution is the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which entered into force in May 2024.
The act envisions a quota of 10% of all critical raw materials consumed in the EU to be produced within the EU.
Additionally, it calls for a significant increase in recycling efforts, totaling up to 25% of annual consumption in the EU. Lastly, it sets the target of reducing dependency for any critical raw material on a single non-EU country to less than 65% by 2030.
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