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Battery Megafactory Forecast: 400% Increase in Capacity to 1 TWh by 2028

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Battery Megafactory Forecast: 400% Increase in Capacity to 1 TWh by 2028

Battery Megafactory Forecast

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

When ground broke on the massive Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada in 2014, the world marveled at the project’s audacity, size, and scope.

At the time, it was touted that the cutting-edge facility would be the largest building in the world by footprint, and that the Gigafactory would single-handedly be capable of doubling the world’s lithium-ion battery production capacity.

What many did not realize, however, is that although as ambitious and as forward-looking as the project sounded, the Gigafactory was just the start of a trend towards scale in the battery making space. While Tesla’s facility was the most publicized, it would ultimately be one of many massive factories in the global pipeline.

Mastering Scale

Today’s data comes to us from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and it forecasts that we will see a 399% increase in lithium-ion battery production capacity over the next decade – enough to pass the impressive 1 TWh milestone.

Here is a more detailed projection of how things will shape up in the coming decade:

RegionCapacity (GWh, 2018)Capacity (GWh, 2023)Capacity (GWh, 2028)
China134.5405631
Europe19.693.5207
North America20.981148
Other005
Asia (excl China)45.578.5111.5
Grand Total220.56581,102.5

In just a decade, lithium-ion battery megafactories around the world will have a combined production capacity equivalent to 22 Tesla Gigafactories!

The majority of this capacity will be located in China, which is projected to have 57% of the global total.

The Top Plants Globally

According to Benchmark, the top 10 megafactories will be combining for 299 GWh of capacity in 2023, which will be equal to almost half of the global production total.

Here are the top 10 plants, sorted by projected capacity:

RankMegafactoryOwnerCountryForecasted capacity by 2023 (GWh)
#1CATLContemporary Amperex Technology Co LtdChina50
#2Tesla Gigafactory 1Tesla Inc / Panasonic Corp (25%)US50
#3Nanjing LG Chem New Energy Battery Co., Ltd.LG ChemChina35
#4Nanjing LG Chem New Energy Battery Co., Ltd. Plant 2LG ChemChina28
#5Samsung SDI XianSamsung SDIChina25
#6Funeng TechnologyFuneng Technology (Ganzhou)China25
#7BYD , QinghaiBYD Co LtdChina24
#8LG Chem Wroclaw Energy Sp. z o.o.LG ChemPoland22
#9Samsung SDI KoreaSamsung SDIKorea20
#10LishenTianJin Lishen Battery Joint-Stock CO.,LTDChina20

Of the top 10 megafactory plants in 2023, the majority will be located in China – meanwhile, the U.S. (Tesla Gigafactory), South Korea (Samsung), and Poland (LG Chem) will be home to the rest.

Reaching economies of scale in lithium-ion battery production will be a significant step in decreasing the overall cost of electric vehicles, which are expected to surpass traditional vehicles in market share by 2038.

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Energy Shift

How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?

Copper and lithium will require the highest number of new mines.

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This graphic estimates the number of mines needed to meet the 2030 demand for energy transition materials.

How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?

The energy transition relies on the minerals necessary to build electric vehicles, batteries, solar farms, and wind turbines. In an economy moving away from fossil fuels every day, sourcing the materials required for this shift presents one of the biggest challenges.
This graphic forecasts the number of mines that must be developed to meet the expected demand for energy transition raw materials and chemicals by 2030. This data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence as of November 2024.

Nearly 300 Mines

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, meeting global battery demand by 2030 would require 293 new mines or plants.

Mineral2024 Supply (t)2030 Demand (t)Supply Needed (t)No. of Mines/PlantsType
Lithium1,181,0002,728,0001,547,00052Mine
Cobalt272,000401,000129,00026Mine
Nickel3,566,0004,949,0001,383,00028Mine
Natural Graphite1,225,0002,933,0001,708,00031Mine
Synthetic Graphite1,820,0002,176,000356,00012Plant
Manganese90,000409,000319,00021Plant
Purified Phosphoric Acid6,493,0009,001,0002,508,00033Plant
Copper22,912,00026,576,0003,664,00061Mine
Rare Earths83,711116,66332,95229Mine

Copper, used in wires and other applications, and lithium, essential for batteries, will require the most significant number of new mines.

Manganese production would need to increase more than fourfold to meet anticipated demand.

Not an Easy Task

Building new mines is one of the biggest challenges in reaching the expected demand.

After discovery and exploration, mineral projects must go through a lengthy process of research, permitting, and funding before becoming operational.

In the U.S., for instance, developing a new mine can take 29 years.

In contrast, Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Laos have some of the shortest development times in the world, at roughly 10 to 15 years.

 

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Energy Shift

Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources

Europe depends entirely on China for heavy rare earth elements, critical for technologies such as hybrid cars and fiber optics.

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This graphic shows the percentage of EU raw material supply sourced from China for 12 raw materials used in various industries.

Visualizing Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Resources

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Despite efforts by European countries to reduce their reliance on China for critical materials, the region remains heavily dependent on Chinese resources.

This graphic shows the percentage of EU raw material supply sourced from China for 12 raw materials used in various industries. Bloomberg published this data in May 2024 based on European Commission research.

China’s Dominance in Clean Energy Minerals

Europe is 100% dependent on China for heavy rare earth elements used in technologies such as hybrid cars, fiber optics, and nuclear power.

Additionally, 97% of the magnesium consumed in Europe, for uses ranging from aerospace alloys to automotive parts, comes from the Asian country.

Raw MaterialPercentage Supplied by ChinaUsage
Heavy rare earth elements100%nuclear reactors, TV screens, fiber optics
Magnesium97%Aerospace alloys, automotive parts
Light rare earth elements85%Catalysts, aircraft engines, magnets
Lithium79%Batteries, pharmaceuticals, ceramics
Gallium71%Semiconductors, LEDs, solar panels
Scandium67%Aerospace components, power generation, sports equipment
Bismuth65%Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, low-melting alloys
Vanadium62%Steel alloys, aerospace, tools
Baryte45%Oil and gas drilling, paints, plastics
Germanium45%Fiber optics, infrared optics, electronics
Natural graphite40%Batteries, lubricants, refractory materials
Tungsten32%Cutting tools, electronics, heavy metal alloys

Almost 80% of the lithium in electric vehicles and electronics batteries comes from China.

Assessing the Risks

The EU faces a pressing concern over access to essential materials, given the apprehension that China could “weaponize” its dominance of the sector.

One proposed solution is the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which entered into force in May 2024.

The act envisions a quota of 10% of all critical raw materials consumed in the EU to be produced within the EU.

Additionally, it calls for a significant increase in recycling efforts, totaling up to 25% of annual consumption in the EU. Lastly, it sets the target of reducing dependency for any critical raw material on a single non-EU country to less than 65% by 2030.

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