Real Assets
30 Years of U.S. Money Supply and Interest Rates
30 Years of U.S. Money Supply and Interest Rates
Money supply and interest rates are important macroeconomic factors that can change the direction of entire economies.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve, also known as the Fed, uses open market operations to influence these factors and fulfill its “dual mandate” of maximum employment and stable prices.
But how is money supply associated with interest rates?
How Money Supply Affects Interest Rates
Interest rates determine the cost of borrowing money in an economy. The higher the interest rate, the more expensive it is to borrow money, and vice versa.
By the law of supply, when there is less money in the economy, the cost of borrowing money tends to be higher. All else being equal, a decrease in money supply corresponds to higher interest rates, and by contrast, an increase in money supply tends to put downward pressure on interest rates.
Central banks use monetary policy—the macroeconomic policy that manages interest rates and money supply—to improve economic health. However, the nature of the monetary policy differs based on the state of the economy:
- Expansionary Monetary Policy
Expansionary monetary policies aim to stimulate economic growth by increasing the money supply, lowering interest rates, and increasing demand, spending, and investment in the economy. - Contractionary Monetary Policy
Contractionary policies aim to slow down unsustainable economic growth and inflation by decreasing the money supply, increasing interest rates, and reducing spending while facilitating saving.
Today, the U.S. Fed is employing expansionary monetary policy, with near-zero interest rates and some of the fastest growth rates for M3 money supply ever seen.
But how has the Fed’s monetary policy changed over recent decades?
Economic Booms and Busts in the U.S.
Between 1990 and 2020, the U.S. money supply (M3) increased from around $3 trillion to $19 trillion, a rate that far exceeds that of economic growth.
During this time, the U.S. economy went through major shocks that affected its monetary policy.
The 2001 Recession
Internet and tech-based companies came to dominate the U.S. economy by the end of the 1990s.
During the same period, the Fed eased its monetary policy, with the goal of reducing interest rates and increasing liquidity in the economy. Excess money supply also went into the stock market, propelling the NASDAQ index to new highs at the time.
To curtail rising inflationary pressures and an overheating stock market, the Fed raised its Fed funds rate target six times between June 1999 and May 2000, reducing money supply growth. This, in turn, slowed down the flow of capital into the stock market in the lead-up to the dot-com crash and the recession that followed.
The 2008 Financial Crisis
The 2008 recession was the most severe economic downturn in the U.S. since World War II.
In an effort to spur the economy out of recession, the Fed dropped its rate target from 3.5% in January of 2008 to near-zero rates by the end of the year. Additionally, it also started a series of large-scale asset purchase programs (also known as quantitative easing), accelerating money supply in the economy.
From the end of 2008 to 2015, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) established near-zero targets for the Fed funds rate in order to support economic activity and job creation.
The 2020 Recession
The pandemic-induced recession of 2020 called for policymakers and central banks around the world to take action.
In response to the financial turmoil, the FOMC dropped its Fed funds rate target by 1.5 percentage points to a range of 0% to 0.25%. It expects these near-zero interest rates to stay until 2023. Furthermore, at the end of 2020, M3 money supply was up by almost 25% year-over-year, the largest yearly increase since 1961.
The Fed’s response to economic turmoil involves large changes in money supply and the Fed funds rate, which affects not only the short term but also the long-term direction of the economy.
The Future of U.S. Money and Interest Rates
An economy’s money supply has a strong association with the currency’s purchasing power and inflation, although there are other factors at play. As the number of dollars in the economy increases, the amount of goods and services that can be bought with one dollar falls as price levels rise.
Due to the policy response during the pandemic, inflation has become a growing concern for investors and consumers alike. With money supply at unprecedented highs and interest rates near all-time lows, it’ll be interesting to see how long it takes for the U.S. economy to recover and rates to rise again.
Real Assets
Charted: Major Copper Discoveries Since 1900
Copper discoveries are becoming increasingly rare and often found deeper underground.
Visualized: Major Copper Discoveries Since 1900
In the evolving landscape of copper mining, deposits are increasingly challenging to locate and extract.
As deposits are found deeper underground, accessing these resources becomes more costly and technically complex, ultimately impacting copper prices.
To highlight this trend, Visual Capitalist partnered with BHP to show the depths and sizes of major copper discoveries found since 1900.
A Century of Copper Discoveries
This graphic shows copper discoveries with over 3 million metric tons of copper equivalent, based on data from MinEx Consulting and BHP up to 2022.
The latest major discovery, made by Filo del Sol in 2020, lies 600 meters below ground and contains just over 11 million metric tons of copper equivalent.
Deposit Name | Discovery Year | Million metric tons of copper equivalent | Depth (Meters) |
---|---|---|---|
Filo Del Sol | 2020 | 11 | -600 |
Hu'u | 2015 | 15 | -550 |
Kakula | 2014 | 19 | -200 |
Cascabel | 2013 | 12 | -25 |
Timok | 2012 | 16 | -460 |
Los Helados | 2009 | 11 | -350 |
Kamoa | 2008 | 25 | -70 |
Los Sulfatos | 2007 | 45 | -320 |
Heruga | 2005 | 7 | -950 |
Carapateena | 2005 | 5 | -470 |
Pebble | 2002 | 37 | -80 |
Resolution | 2002 | 27 | -1280 |
Hugo Dummett | 2002 | 19 | -500 |
Centinela (Sulphide) | 2000 | 18 | -350 |
Spence Cu Camp | 1996 | 15 | -100 |
Escondida Norte | 1995 | 10 | -200 |
Tampakan | 1992 | 15 | -200 |
Collahuasi Cu Au Camp | 1991 | 92 | -75 |
Batu Hijau | 1990 | 8 | -45 |
Ministro Hales | 1989 | 24 | -300 |
Grasberg-Ertsberg Project (Camp) | 1988 | 57 | -25 |
Escondida (Main Deposit) | 1981 | 85 | -40 |
Los Bronces | 1978 | 33 | -20 |
Salobo | 1977 | 10 | -40 |
Olympic Dam | 1975 | 86 | -350 |
Antamina | 1974 | 27 | -30 |
Los Pelambres | 1971 | 38 | -20 |
Ok Tedi | 1969 | 9 | -20 |
Sar Cheshmeh Cu Camp | 1967 | 30 | -20 |
El Abra Cu Camp | 1965 | 18 | -20 |
Panguna | 1965 | 9 | -20 |
Kidd Creek | 1963 | 5 | -30 |
Lubin Cu Camp | 1957 | 66 | -5 |
Palabora | 1956 | 8 | -35 |
Andina Cu Camp | 1955 | 144 | -20 |
Chambishi | 1952 | 6 | -13 |
Gaisky Complex | 1950 | 8 | -30 |
Udokan | 1949 | 27 | -15 |
Kamoto Cu/Co-Operation | 1940 | 26 | -3 |
Konkola (Bancroft) | 1935 | 19 | -5 |
Kalmakyr | 1931 | 10 | -5 |
Dzhezkazgan | 1929 | 22 | -5 |
Nkana (Rokana) Division | 1928 | 11 | -5 |
Cananea Cu Camp | 1926 | 35 | -5 |
Mufulira | 1923 | 16 | -10 |
Nchanga | 1923 | 15 | -10 |
Tenke Fungurume | 1918 | 27 | -5 |
Chuquicamata Cu Camp | 1910 | 131 | -5 |
El Teniente | 1904 | 127 | -5 |
Ely/Robinson | 1902 | 6 | -5 |
Andina Copper Camp, discovered in 1955 in Chile, holds a massive 144 million metric tons of copper equivalent, making it the largest deposit discovered since 1900. However, deposits of this scale near the surface are becoming increasingly rare.
Notable discoveries like the Escondida deposit, found at a relatively shallow depth of only 40 meters in 1981, contrast sharply with newer, deeper finds like the Resolution deposit, discovered in 2002 at a depth of 1,280 meters.
The Future of Copper Mining
This trend in recent copper discoveries highlights that copper mines are harder to develop than ever before.
And while copper recycling is expected to play an essential role in meeting growing demand, it won’t be sufficient on its own, according to BHP. An emphasis on primary supply, along with technological progress that improves mine productivity, is crucial.
Overall, BHP’s analysis estimates that a $250 billion investment in the sector is necessary in the next decade to overcome these challenges.
Get more copper insights in BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook.
Real Assets
How Gold Beats Uncertainty, in 7 Charts
The following content is sponsored by the Reagan Gold Group
The U.S. economy may not be as strong as it previously was. GDP growth in 2023 was 2.5% compared to 5.8% in 2021. High levels of public debt and geopolitical tensions have dissuaded other nations from using the dollar, which could create inflationary pressure on Americans. Could investing in gold provide the solution?
This charticle, sponsored by the Reagan Gold Group, will explore the U.S. economic climate and how gold can help Americans protect their investments.
#1: High Levels of Public Debt
The U.S. public deficit has grown considerably over the last decade. According to the U.S. Treasury, as of September 30th, 2024, total public debt stood at $35,464,673,929,172–if called in, it would be as every U.S. citizen would have to pay over $100,000.
High levels of public debt can negatively affect the U.S. economy. Interest payments can divert funds from where needed and reduce economic growth. However, public debt alone does not break an economy.
For example, Japan’s sovereign debt is more than 250% of GDP, but as much of the debt is held by Japan’s central bank, its robust and asset-focused balance sheet mitigates much of the potential instability.
#2: Less U.S. Dollars in International Systems
Another global trend that could impact the U.S. economy has slowly emerged since World War II–the dollar has lessened its circulation among international markets. The IMF reports that global FX reserves held in USD have notably declined, dropping from 71% in 2000 to 58% in 2023.
Geopolitical tensions have contributed to fewer U.S. dollars flowing through the global banking and exchange systems. This reduction in demand for U.S. dollars impacts the nation’s overall economic influence globally, potentially creating instability in other areas.
#3: Subpar Returns for U.S. Pension Funds
The performance of the largest pension funds in the U.S. over the last five years shows slightly depressed returns, especially when compared to gold.
Inflation and the overall reduction in the dollar’s economic power create a situation where, as pressure mounts, retirement payments may not stretch as far as retirees hope. This situation has led to many, including central banks, seeking insurance.
Could investing in gold be that insurance?
#4: Rising Gold Spot Prices
Despite financial crises, rising geo-political tensions, and a global pandemic, gold performance over the last 20 years has been strong, with its spot price growing aggressively:
Historically, gold has held its value against inflation, and its continued growth over the years has made it a sound investment in times of turmoil. So, considering the current economic climate, it’s no surprise that many investors are turning to gold.
#5: Increasing Demand from Central Banks
As if underlining the importance of gold, central banks have also increased their gold purchases by over 30% over the last five years.
When the World Gold Council asked central bankers, “How relevant are the following factors in your organization’s decision to hold gold?” The most common, highly relevant answers were that gold has no default risk, its performance in crises, and its value as a hedge against inflation, at 49%, 47%, and 42%, respectively.
#6: The Growth of Gold
When compared against other assets, gold’s current performance shows that it is more than just a hedge against inflation over the long term:
Gold’s recent performance has eclipsed many other assets over the long and short term, with its price growing at a higher rate than even the Emerging Markets Index.
#7: Gold Returns vs. Other Assets
In fact, gold was one of the better-performing overall assets between 2023 and 2024, returning nearly 14%.
Indeed, keeping to its history of consistency, investing in gold has provided percentage returns above other lauded long-term assets such as bonds.
A Golden Opportunity
The U.S. economy may not be what it was, with economic and geopolitical turmoil creating inflationary stresses that pressure lower-performing assets such as retirement funds.
Institutional and personal investors want to protect their wealth, and physical gold has proven to be one of the best hedges against uncertainty.
Learn more about how gold can protect your investments.
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