Real Assets
30 Years of U.S. Money Supply and Interest Rates
30 Years of U.S. Money Supply and Interest Rates
Money supply and interest rates are important macroeconomic factors that can change the direction of entire economies.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve, also known as the Fed, uses open market operations to influence these factors and fulfill its “dual mandate” of maximum employment and stable prices.
But how is money supply associated with interest rates?
How Money Supply Affects Interest Rates
Interest rates determine the cost of borrowing money in an economy. The higher the interest rate, the more expensive it is to borrow money, and vice versa.
By the law of supply, when there is less money in the economy, the cost of borrowing money tends to be higher. All else being equal, a decrease in money supply corresponds to higher interest rates, and by contrast, an increase in money supply tends to put downward pressure on interest rates.
Central banks use monetary policy—the macroeconomic policy that manages interest rates and money supply—to improve economic health. However, the nature of the monetary policy differs based on the state of the economy:
- Expansionary Monetary Policy
Expansionary monetary policies aim to stimulate economic growth by increasing the money supply, lowering interest rates, and increasing demand, spending, and investment in the economy. - Contractionary Monetary Policy
Contractionary policies aim to slow down unsustainable economic growth and inflation by decreasing the money supply, increasing interest rates, and reducing spending while facilitating saving.
Today, the U.S. Fed is employing expansionary monetary policy, with near-zero interest rates and some of the fastest growth rates for M3 money supply ever seen.
But how has the Fed’s monetary policy changed over recent decades?
Economic Booms and Busts in the U.S.
Between 1990 and 2020, the U.S. money supply (M3) increased from around $3 trillion to $19 trillion, a rate that far exceeds that of economic growth.
During this time, the U.S. economy went through major shocks that affected its monetary policy.
The 2001 Recession
Internet and tech-based companies came to dominate the U.S. economy by the end of the 1990s.
During the same period, the Fed eased its monetary policy, with the goal of reducing interest rates and increasing liquidity in the economy. Excess money supply also went into the stock market, propelling the NASDAQ index to new highs at the time.
To curtail rising inflationary pressures and an overheating stock market, the Fed raised its Fed funds rate target six times between June 1999 and May 2000, reducing money supply growth. This, in turn, slowed down the flow of capital into the stock market in the lead-up to the dot-com crash and the recession that followed.
The 2008 Financial Crisis
The 2008 recession was the most severe economic downturn in the U.S. since World War II.
In an effort to spur the economy out of recession, the Fed dropped its rate target from 3.5% in January of 2008 to near-zero rates by the end of the year. Additionally, it also started a series of large-scale asset purchase programs (also known as quantitative easing), accelerating money supply in the economy.
From the end of 2008 to 2015, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) established near-zero targets for the Fed funds rate in order to support economic activity and job creation.
The 2020 Recession
The pandemic-induced recession of 2020 called for policymakers and central banks around the world to take action.
In response to the financial turmoil, the FOMC dropped its Fed funds rate target by 1.5 percentage points to a range of 0% to 0.25%. It expects these near-zero interest rates to stay until 2023. Furthermore, at the end of 2020, M3 money supply was up by almost 25% year-over-year, the largest yearly increase since 1961.
The Fed’s response to economic turmoil involves large changes in money supply and the Fed funds rate, which affects not only the short term but also the long-term direction of the economy.
The Future of U.S. Money and Interest Rates
An economy’s money supply has a strong association with the currency’s purchasing power and inflation, although there are other factors at play. As the number of dollars in the economy increases, the amount of goods and services that can be bought with one dollar falls as price levels rise.
Due to the policy response during the pandemic, inflation has become a growing concern for investors and consumers alike. With money supply at unprecedented highs and interest rates near all-time lows, it’ll be interesting to see how long it takes for the U.S. economy to recover and rates to rise again.
Real Assets
All the Metals We Mined in One Visualization
This infographic visualizes the 2.8 billion tonnes of metals mined in 2022.
All the Metals We Mined in One Visualization
Metals are a big part of our daily lives, found in every building we enter and all devices we use.
Today, major industries that directly consume processed mineral materials contribute 14% of the United States economy.
The above infographic visualizes all 2.8 billion tonnes of metals mined in 2022 and highlights each metal’s largest end-use using data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS).
Iron Ore Dominance
Iron ore dominates the metals mining landscape, comprising 93% of the total mined. In 2022, 2.6 billion tonnes of iron ore were mined, containing about 1.6 billion tonnes of iron.
| Metal/Ore | Quantity Mined in 2022 (tonnes) | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Iron ore | 2,600,000,000 | 93.3% |
| Industrial metals | 185,111,835 | 6.6% |
| Technology and Precious Metals | 1,500,008 | 0.05% |
| Total | 2,786,611,843 | 100% |
Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Iron ores are found in various geologic environments, such as igneous, metamorphic, or sedimentary rocks, and can contain over 70% iron, with many falling in the 50-60% range.
Combined with other materials like coke and limestone, iron ore is primarily used in steel production. Today, almost all (98%) iron ore is dedicated to steelmaking.
The ore is typically mined in about 50 countries, but Australia, Brazil, China, and India are responsible for 75% of the production.
Because of its essential role in infrastructure development, iron ore is one of the most crucial materials underpinning urbanization and economic growth.
Industrial Metals
Industrial metals occupy the second position on our list, constituting 6.6% of all metals mined in 2022. These metals, including copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc, are employed in construction and industrial applications.
Aluminum constituted nearly 40% of industrial metal production in 2022. China was responsible for 56% of all aluminum produced.
| Industrial Metals | 2022 Mine Production (tonnes) | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | 69,000,000 | 37.3% |
| Chromium | 41,000,000 | 22.1% |
| Copper | 22,000,000 | 11.9% |
| Manganese | 20,000,000 | 10.8% |
| Zinc | 13,000,000 | 7.0% |
| Titanium (mineral concentrates) | 9,500,000 | 5.1% |
| Lead | 4,500,000 | 2.4% |
| Nickel | 3,300,000 | 1.8% |
| Zirconium Minerals (Zircon) | 1,400,000 | 0.8% |
| Magnesium | 1,000,000 | 0.5% |
| Strontium | 340,000 | 0.2% |
| Uranium | 49,355 | 0.03% |
| Bismuth | 20,000 | 0.01% |
| Mercury | 2,200 | 0.00% |
| Beryllium | 280 | 0.00% |
| Total | 185,111,835 | 100% |
In the second position is chromium, which plays a primary role in rendering stainless steel corrosion-resistant. South Africa led chromium production, accounting for 44% of the total mined last year.
Technology and Precious Metals
Despite representing less than 1% of all the metals mined, technology metals have been on the news over the last few years as countries and companies seek these materials to reduce carbon emissions and improve productivity.
| Technology and Precious Metals | 2022 Mine Production (tonnes) | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Tin | 310,000 | 20.7% |
| Rare Earth Oxides | 300,000 | 20.0% |
| Molybdenum | 250,000 | 16.7% |
| Cobalt | 190,000 | 12.7% |
| Lithium | 130,000 | 8.7% |
| Vanadium | 100,000 | 6.7% |
| Tungsten | 84,000 | 5.6% |
| Niobium | 79,000 | 5.3% |
| Silver | 26,000 | 1.7% |
| Cadmium | 24,000 | 1.6% |
| Gold | 3,100 | 0.2% |
| Tantalum | 2,000 | 0.1% |
| Indium | 900 | 0.1% |
| Gallium | 550 | 0.04% |
| Platinum Group Metals | 400 | 0.03% |
| Rhenium | 58 | 0.004% |
| Total | 1,500,008 | 100% |
They include lithium and cobalt, used in electric vehicles and battery storage, and rare earths, used in magnets, metal alloys, and electronics. Many of them are considered critical for countries’ security due to their role in clean energy technologies and dependency on other nations to supply domestic demand.
However, despite increasing interest in these metals, they are still behind precious metals such as gold and silver regarding market size.
The gold market, for example, reached $196 billion in 2022, compared to $10.6 billion for the rare earths market.
Real Assets
Visualizing Mining’s Footprint in British Columbia
Mining represents 7% of British Columbia’s GDP despite only accounting for 0.04% of the land use.
Visualizing Mining’s Footprint in British Columbia
British Columbia is considered a global leader in the development of socially and environmentally responsible resources.
An estimated 54% of the province’s total land is protected, making it one of the world’s greenest mining hubs.
This graphic by the B.C. Regional Mining Alliance (BCRMA) details mining’s footprint in the province.
A Tier 1 Jurisdiction for Mining
British Columbia covers almost 95 million hectares (234 million acres), more than any European country except Russia, and more than any U.S. state except Alaska.
As the largest mining province in Canada, BC registered $18 billion in revenue from the industry in 2022.
British Columbia stands as Canada’s sole producer of molybdenum, which finds applications in metallurgy and chemistry. Additionally, B.C. is the country’s leader producer of copper and steelmaking coal, besides gold and silver.
At the heart of British Columbia’s mining industry lies the Golden Triangle, one of the hottest mineral exploration districts in the world.
More than 150 mines have operated in the area since prospectors first arrived at the end of the 19th century. The region alone is endowed with minerals worth more than $800 billion.
How Green is B.C. Mining
Mining represents 7% of the province’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), despite only accounting for 0.04% of the land use. In comparison, farmland demands 3% of the land, bringing $2.1 billion (0.8%) per year.
| Land Use in B.C. | Revenue (2022, CAD $) | |
|---|---|---|
| Mining | 0.04% | $18.0 billion |
| Oil & Gas | 0.4% | $9.5 billion |
| Infrastructure | 1% | $25.0 billion |
| Farmland | 3% | $2.1 billion |
| Forest | 62% | $13.3 billion |
Mining operations are also supported by a stable, transparent, and effective policy environment. The province ranked as the world’s least risky for mining in 2017 and 2018.
In addition, mineral exploration has received ample support from local Indigenous communities. Today, mining accounts for over two-thirds of all indigenous people employed in the extractives sector.
According to the International Energy Agency, up to six times more minerals and metals will be needed by 2040 to accelerate the energy transition.
In this scenario, British Columbia is well positioned to support the transition to a low-carbon future and make a significant contribution to climate action.
The BCRMA is a strategic partnership between indigenous groups, industry, and government representatives that aims to promote B.C.’s mining opportunities internationally.
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